Question fixed effect estimates

This page provides access to the estimated question fixed effects for all questions evaluated on the current leaderboard. The file is a byproduct of producing the leaderboard. We provide it in hopes of evaluating the two way fixed effects model used to evaluate forecasting performance. For transparency, we provide the estimated question fixed effects for download. NB: higher scores imply more difficult questions.

A new file is generated nightly as a byproduct of updating the leaderboard.

File format

The question fixed effects files are provided as JSON files with the following fields:

  • source: The source from which the question was pulled or generated.
  • id: The question ID (unique given source).
  • horizon: The forecast horizon in days (null for market questions)
  • forecast_due_date: The forecast due date associated with the question set the question comes from
  • question_fixed_effect: The question fixed effect estimate.

For more information about these fields, see the wiki.

Available files