[{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421513439},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142477137},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5337285698},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441655852},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5355797422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135762389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169721099},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186050131},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120432755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0c20162bae6257b7fcaa67c009a710e82f0faad0ce168d775b2bc3524121f83a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122534497},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632728646},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065979761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709418298},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637806232},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"0d4a0bfb8b28c7884d4a22a6570a4ea4411980b99bcccc03d81c9767be90e768","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679625196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068918554},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708771746},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659806231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637228301},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725750711},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818832087},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849832085},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895797601},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937487254},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1189191f304052c00dd55b9c4818297bbe491768917856324f963b97e95d1b8f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999452769},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562498198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585759811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533643037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510970456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1a0426c8b3d715290f3ad93dae8dfc9f84d6f6e38ea1fd4d20f11496049204b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492651424},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530661064},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537626581},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559350718},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517593823},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512490375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944425695},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095643376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926554728},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010490212},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"1f7b3ef2436775c7530d7858dc141a4cf7a5692745e9f476e1bbd534d183f3f2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106768376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489177355},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511522182},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540039422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576212869},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623281832},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574220071},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593668346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581668346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665220067},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182546144},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512655938},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456725293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514232067},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341099487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3527af895c3fba5850bad3c91193244d88ef272e0bc7251e828b9b2029236ad9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055925616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904038858},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3798831966},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545418183},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331142329},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"39f1ff2b98ec6f5f85699fde53f5fb2f6746325a4e0320027bf618e7e40f9c7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414900946},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758554647},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808234969},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811033377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898299183},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"3d8c7edc8a70211d39a3e4827f448e5908cd5e98dbbb1e3d7501c7761a877788","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926857308},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990603037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049896908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995483037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003196263},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231336908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002659489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066282473},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040121183},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117239336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"447c809c60421e327f266315b62b36749b6362b8b688c133985c93c9ad9be608","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121898207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587587231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610135618},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568845295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634491424},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660330134},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282434959},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816909591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442400985},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029530617},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"46b630b92f887abf75c7d2c530f0d70f7cc1c398227da6ef8b682cfcaa7815c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993735791},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805117946},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802274843},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825683462},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860980013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa59262070b24c69f8ad98ddedd5eba84a94a7fd8737e4728c54d6182e5c4db","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862935875},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135459939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320412839},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129478422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292251461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4b0cdaeb4874d9d9aec17bb16a7f36ea9fecc746476f84df1584a572ae3c1ad5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284901117},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1806536583},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823738196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1731859164},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188183497},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"4d0226bb7d28b3509344cecbac6e7003dbb7cb5ac9ffc68518218fb163925931","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1938568841},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765004585},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780280447},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833487341},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920418372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"51641f21873dd7734140740107c7b5ff8375d86f14637855f0292c6696e5b7b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871590788},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807659673},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867418292},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875590705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953349323},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"535b6436c6cc9eba749153f2878872daba10219f5b12b6cd94d64f6dba931541","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027314837},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221452843},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965895612},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967221474},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327659736},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"54cccd2dd254ef101fc5a2d46172dc0ee2cc6f6d54461d091c5970df91a17c37","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383970078},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443239386},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437639386},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390142492},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422626628},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"570966f9caa62dc73ea1ee2424b821f1e8df53a35ee979c121584c9982bf63ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142325318},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017420777},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888695939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3849801423},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560052713},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"5713f8a61c04fa270a3a9e1791e4d9b5fa8e0d1cc1c1c232aef84d80c5b89c09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146434648},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060382175},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060398304},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060466046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060466046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"600e496f50daaa9743707de63ce115d974431d123cd136ff68b8f92bc74eb435","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607305621},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539288955},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586392401},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150846137},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574082057},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"607789976d54f4e876b6a60e9d196886af0d768824ad7bd357b59bcd3e1e90d8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735806189},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605659681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603038992},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600004509},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602073475},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601073475},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583521834},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602004592},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592625282},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632349418},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"66b6a2d010663acd0151084028b848f1fabb2f0104caef851775a7cb75e634b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628556315},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802984113},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818265147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801579976},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818218596},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"679aca5c46d7e9a3966503abc06f64d74369b3c5ea29ffbc5607c7497927975c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861511008},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793245881},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839590707},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824349328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945728633},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"6eee18f909f384a15b0d936d3d07b7151a285118f994cc75e04fcf9e709812cb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010659665},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205737589},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290565172},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182530693},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233056208},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476116544},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791935619},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812314928},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837556307},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811556308},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817004583},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293619167},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135898207},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263974005},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350812715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"7de1da056e3c1cf3e02778d4631cd6d10a716795d083dd2f64d3988d10b27848","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484135296},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986590701},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023418286},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020073458},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086288973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163591039},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634510632},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668305459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730066491},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477146846},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"89aa41e4f8fcce6aebc49ed9abc3b7be16f6356c50ec20ba14f6d5b8490bbf06","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614847185},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503108044},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505659768},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051180632},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520418388},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d2ba46db9e608f4c68374e40a33076c33f58219df26b504135b506194d1622c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532909767},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634521627},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531521976},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267924745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117073372},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"8d5c97e6c9d26429339b3bf1ca0bfc816f9927f2bb0214ca584d483f306bed01","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360426811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128017231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158078844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128344973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140151425},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157756263},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271488617},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313061029},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131053034},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405166198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9338de937aee2ca6a5a892e879683a60310ddb3a4f16c3b352056b450abce9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418941025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516855849},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522855849},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1454166196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434855852},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"97e9467176cf6658b3bd9c9ebf89d8510df5e3aabff8c3d14cdcb5d9dfa596c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155064033},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058501465},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617877553},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648272715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693046908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"9d683eff8747219752163f7d11d94ff96bbf3b3386a147b59c4829ddb5dac130","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748168844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128566261},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302502239},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784426906},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877463035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"a6df218adf1cf6a40983148234c46052bc83c7d2b8e31157dfdd6e58a9f83f5d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745878519},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068246594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713885618},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686502069},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686312715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068499594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014038976},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070323456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097694145},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178073452},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b2c16b3c0744a315c41326c635faea3d15d8206e657856b721a43bd2592d169f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.127134931},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568992389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574059485},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589045615},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597639163},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"b48c0a80ed5a62b128815b699b93d3d167bf2a3265058028871320c0a5c85913","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610003034},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713442048},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732511013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.160140757},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1747717909},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ba55ec8fa639399c7008a2a1c50e255936187a9bd722f8b3a66334ea4709f00d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808407562},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067268376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701812792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067843376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675328921},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"ccda7990a2565cabd7c375a036751bd3b953b8bed45d859010919cd3a84d7e78","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068784505},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506625081},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350047501},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499364391},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357295432},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d2f53c35645247d8ff5bdd09147c7409afb6752ace3d5863ea759e821c619b07","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312922682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552245973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584245972},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061210804},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589659765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d53c1683bf29c37c17aed31f5b2e2403aa5c040883b280940f946138800ac1fb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698694243},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122531497},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217577308},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248697873},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261282389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308161421},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037211471},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028797678},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125245951},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070866642},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"df90cdceaad74c30e35c84791dd12ac5120b233928a6bc4ff3af2c8ece3f306b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157763191},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232771722},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233561722},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230028274},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264407583},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303007581},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520383358},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739843035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260292368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519629809},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622032067},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496123052},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535640291},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629502357},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740383732},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557235118},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228142373},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.375246783},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223418195},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094669235},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f0535b536401f2bfa43ed741298dd8d89c745701593f04a8b410115c8a3c6142","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288581296},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134855465},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404991828},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360820779},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395596989},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f29228009a407cdf130062251d274b898fc8e925f21b5d9c16376e35fd5a9fbd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436853038},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419694516},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453453136},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422694516},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0355556588},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"f4c38ca3c45ac8dea0e76cc1fbe7e0a89b58f854a04174b0078a5ee5aefc66d8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.036283245},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879691747},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874895053},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900522392},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923248199},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956724005},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1693743773},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1769571356},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217281272},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454545428},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"acled","id":"fa2e38da1538dba16674994feb8bf783ced8b7d5763bd089a6905794dcf90f68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994157554},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171042087},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133954508},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917151006},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153977171},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895771657},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506369165},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242659487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055885293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684369164},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061433681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526818163},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400189705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237207874},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862465938},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405784037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392338918},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646499964},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205478031},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739288944},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726116491},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289228538},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964365102},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961496176},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1704806531},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022599583},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463702669},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31924613},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231254441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188994411},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875875106},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24960065},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637813197},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403465938},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902111099},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412562712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352308728},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507322366},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246474003},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917659486},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356982068},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152719057},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129138954},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2001941744},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1807143357},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634974003},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563323354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301275507},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037978587},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164870274},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972702688},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312442682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925909586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954875142},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816840665},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919219932},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352749577},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259702677},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922633764},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569254467},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273435787},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242944057},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887392347},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955461349},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708771703},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929357862},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780465939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412595819},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757990131},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370207873},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077603035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100559892},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192183389},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006461347},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620840672},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164840612},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166134456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086934426},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985982067},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615377228},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308369981},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218784065},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313467721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237288924},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109013412},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263668194},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428840601},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172771646},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936047556},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509780332},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593392319},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360961343},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170771685},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1913288937},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350392328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633046584},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804976177},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869724002},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663401422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875724003},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383668228},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643445136},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1831219974},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450082403},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787426833},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645540791},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959333847},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184175626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1562369163},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509617597},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926547705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194384066},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601202742},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908116484},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358020715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050366459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898570777},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1704175615},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979078842},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153046738},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313685274},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1934702729},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619504466},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916737173},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331599265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525611396},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150737203},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921634109},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353495776},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261978578},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262381491},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280565129},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111840656},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066909581},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373248196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689754555},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891724325},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684570776},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709054648},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366659487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615278954},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144240132},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735562712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360498196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016676746},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070389805},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102078841},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803530454},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351856402},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302272668},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424216494},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995143357},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581530454},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023719314},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080987543},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256261641},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671116877},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629319471},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965806176},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128956441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352116506},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524426844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244843368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27021111},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.185575626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152459497},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274827239},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857949276},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139740654},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417116503},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963944107},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225599269},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264013061},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569668221},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209466824},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182353894},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039564754},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432076388},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970828842},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877570777},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615498196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783389549},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775139753},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3866650517},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431116463},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4405461252},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530650054},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834375296},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910125821},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995081998},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991806096},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316220121},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121800983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208657868},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303668232},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995944106},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292275276},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.39855847},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2043054105},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333717229},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530214887},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240275521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744853036},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040506261},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734856424},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572340416},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25951511},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158659164},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358678234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202418398},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472969949},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818176793},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770471681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814533151},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761414256},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640013046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496105525},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426651898},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180779857},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115749789},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509245828},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576377972},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.183231026},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359488359},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115396984},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414706762},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840845461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904734914},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538441267},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333800191},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164782679},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502800156},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628636243},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480384789},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299386435},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341362007},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506582008},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850728721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316340144},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104410649},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302134604},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3694091263},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830933327},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177528705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282715728},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410994599},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147045686},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429028316},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981153689},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083531027},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315045161},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139046633},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333185286},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103421464},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206990031},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322592184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311737039},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505892353},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253428883},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092484999},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904123848},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637515872},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3907347093},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515026856},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299481379},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470977095},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684099185},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846119983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934832453},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302834129},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168281518},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268616497},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408916484},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116532591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141802363},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187043712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327205658},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336035101},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227266917},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060865772},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367003884},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655692755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744127353},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4148224518},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005328707},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383203005},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687721878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025929918},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915492548},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110695692},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380592496},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085329412},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977259724},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358373468},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350674055},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764622118},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1805358379},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707688521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301433474},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014188647},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159005184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230151571},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470223015},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826939297},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861034809},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826362198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321529415},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908364423},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582418136},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253049019},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516117666},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504796116},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251687539},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918787449},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068546977},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094364219},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275098162},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187221044},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246890849},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119597548},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182592693},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014328375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184372314},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991484251},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033000289},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184869343},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320728277},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351109448},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091219231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158803283},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313522606},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957850027},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1939464327},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130106018},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316105278},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472399285},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900084364},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878541248},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165931354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079088413},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235089449},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271301248},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350268561},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596855368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750564913},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846843131},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056874554},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511541852},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532466295},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579295683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3675358486},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771821476},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387144481},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322467104},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275711688},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321660218},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405320865},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498342907},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261696759},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361932138},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341047465},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643080995},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673129512},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220816353},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331479183},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288989785},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329490631},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438148137},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252391697},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323096138},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228197879},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129444216},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194926883},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4657090626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4623875428},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4596831957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4567803141},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4556695902},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913730838},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731382701},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267576326},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651896027},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750621086},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275809432},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325771611},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114150803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214127721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965070789},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974923049},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337544352},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147928637},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346495346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723492499},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416510871},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4425454368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5003837744},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771866259},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825445726},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.394161785},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134294162},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4330555555},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304876169},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197160682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195488461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159535819},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184086357},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889078562},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677952139},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485792328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291245201},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671132211},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737687294},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884750073},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768211493},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365797717},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547622135},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868205596},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805156057},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770263599},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806894243},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926978859},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818393032},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695746654},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734971865},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272596329},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932065488},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925701079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835201464},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097893024},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501386939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4720553807},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537820467},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927223119},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193827435},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937412307},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994304366},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524584359},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579788547},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658285243},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820452989},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918598912},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230083486},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550016075},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822038438},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4170653693},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616518712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079824563},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319770376},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631398343},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179761052},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715152243},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119615063},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021014317},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379767365},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992541066},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900842333},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470651889},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486042971},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491592051},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494427804},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910454549},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635873304},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552387429},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555032973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641817352},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990766019},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014119556},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504325137},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618914298},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718602317},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310933301},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315701105},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339227442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421085021},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554452333},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444261234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820602099},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746073774},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736964726},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677564477},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052078284},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077526904},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104057459},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470166552},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621176096},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059597247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016241579},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192368309},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172454931},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511327381},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450189942},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383076261},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854904634},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906809545},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563870774},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673352953},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834733042},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1838998751},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874774298},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990414103},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763510831},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920318825},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326190579},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149228762},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242413281},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491980239},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864517045},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281165331},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045872054},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308239467},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329758046},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128467079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964315616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323419647},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123921871},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140201275},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4855156407},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697811018},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912009234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549496706},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859392003},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704702354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600116151},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526219602},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550404377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909728631},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055797591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258728618},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510590677},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1824142388},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409246261},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373335616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447530454},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574201745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267780099},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006917553},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038594973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098586908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119439336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349199812},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298047197},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254426509},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307288576},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345047196},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421978227},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988586484},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127081726},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320461029},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550116192},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039904351},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864619166},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852844973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854103037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087939336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938199811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141148596},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237021429},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4837394705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4388652908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989566492},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070728973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081660007},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103557593},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162697246},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218297588},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080167554},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124328844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191651425},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291264328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444522392},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563295463},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767226489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773674765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771192006},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f4e9bef478eb0032ddb58280d4bcdfa31f5934dccd230a28cc22eaaae6f3411","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836778211},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178736818},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961777171},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802928902},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674354769},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f7f3d8ce69dbc5297e9bebded95b3e4e3204845a2667894806c89c869b01e32","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590130001},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190393683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199523683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122689336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258038521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132214336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818796586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084671594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889909489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961328844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077683683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739361102},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081214336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909199811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055627231},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275812715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112628035},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194280348},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129572862},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441073442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681073432},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314458815},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4793341442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4279903829},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4195228385},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4c98ccd0d64f8cad6896b50e8131b7173dcc95e40e1492413d69a7bf75d3328c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3920562391},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057211388},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045659664},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049349319},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084728628},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168280349},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792039329},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810419673},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874840705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973625184},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103935524},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796220019},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082162519},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088490105},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987107942},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147935522},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747200134},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755652715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771138198},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804530457},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864328844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280006263},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356457876},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488844973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668885296},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937272393},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414314822},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402487236},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416349305},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461073441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1521176887},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845487258},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866866568},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893763118},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938418289},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010349321},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607280367},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706556226},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849418289},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035245868},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306314823},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905009328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985551031},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5187405802},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402452328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.167505655},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116323106},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5110880535},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501687574},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1758208126},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102564791},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151939336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576619167},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685586909},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868167554},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097877232},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826418293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868495878},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929004496},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012832079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127797592},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775832088},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819176914},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884383808},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978383805},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104901041},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152797591},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210211382},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325659653},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484107923},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1708728603},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820357945},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825944152},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855909668},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924487252},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c7985d78360e28f5bb4bc303f157919422a4963fd9ab6d37515f6c5581cbe06","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068245867},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239641423},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205279164},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255143358},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385129165},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534994649},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835039811},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868299489},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914603037},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985844973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081070779},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011812715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031336908},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069006263},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129361102},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233078844},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811246225},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845935879},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089541967},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966254495},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065487249},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622743697},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525571287},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322292703},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442343901},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505425933},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773116571},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827418293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090165967},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100397001},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142970005},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065073456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105185524},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175625176},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284797586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456107924},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042013199},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090660007},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160419659},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269768621},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414061029},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348145209},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153505313},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963970454},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277635293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176894383},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068668629},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073117939},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089530352},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139970005},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217280347},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130167554},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161619166},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211594973},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291264328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399780457},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568641422},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463181745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404867229},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445544648},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cfecaf75abdfe4be7627c5e61a5d7c88541a74fbf3f030dd0b3b81e3f456e655","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500951279},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204640265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175046128},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775969937},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130239234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172980664},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341694135},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146293551},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645694123},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.195017687},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350521682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060375293},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989819487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299927239},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056925574},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239331179},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206590692},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256694138},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335211377},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447728614},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616452745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437494394},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185916128},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893373036},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627899598},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419150986},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290863338},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856943727},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911529932},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905667863},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020852127},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733522395},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735490137},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756844986},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801361115},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877941776},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425305941},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453362392},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496493038},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1571788522},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642425618},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794522084},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854109323},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937593803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057702764},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092521728},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172211395},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171352236},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195843487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393693756},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530954013},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364637048},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901519477},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228151257},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173142877},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138799877},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200301608},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2011200129},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198948507},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506147627},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985948467},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046454173},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200671233},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.195857297},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411985832},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890381094},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134533325},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074318358},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034810483},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026338116},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021346496},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311337546},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973170393},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218045971},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099629525},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154912777},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307060697},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331405362},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307093581},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342953832},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280075861},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854845867},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288117019},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419242943},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535236396},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526626382},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133596564},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126929681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206448375},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210215441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098608023},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169536381},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220065771},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115359682},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216859223},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207197761},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214344866},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176148709},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024824182},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020087117},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866932557},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975041022},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321060456},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361739903},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428618741},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928570579},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066228647},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217157357},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135866808},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201995749},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191272807},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179905826},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089173627},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151248771},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318473214},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165406248},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932029383},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045390136},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323322444},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338698944},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569976831},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119731951},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104791303},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075640698},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061743983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114559884},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876071442},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930859818},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288676188},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058350079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216806628},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284662769},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318881694},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324513068},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223350602},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186441786},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390293787},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310812487},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295555172},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383274402},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167718694},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220327493},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218608806},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139536353},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143681239},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136085795},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280590772},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230921785},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232264977},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313869097},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301763482},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208592745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171746062},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119542642},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051743166},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943479957},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954699455},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942256755},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976885623},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011868271},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069325432},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246748732},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225207714},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228205499},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236505465},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FFIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156027818},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214434803},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125487528},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039610842},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073665379},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072718501},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026765234},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053679861},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239149535},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253572753},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249231153},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157395369},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157943158},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118128989},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109401745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100501594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285706015},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282657237},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824990492},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806289346},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834998094},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046153023},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173252743},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183294574},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160036582},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158220884},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224985238},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193315078},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251905598},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371657368},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356057514},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300388392},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306091895},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266116672},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253978328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264402115},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321319036},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009084745},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270127341},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366205228},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998065282},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001034277},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134373922},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2053968676},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016060834},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026152476},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164131315},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242780484},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995860924},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811202088},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1879198644},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467138471},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486973349},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471193441},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949404874},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044365928},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994382526},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253277836},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212399351},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156544299},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296692533},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295932435},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238846779},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195554734},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178892949},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211765323},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207599274},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345799513},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061824749},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084519139},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334198569},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846793718},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885450823},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266364712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326781063},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259838572},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271125616},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225139444},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143113218},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148510312},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329932538},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22096728},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075363563},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159468312},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316837476},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175430721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247147336},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119083958},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034652319},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922713443},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184928906},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969181972},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203154521},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225580915},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056618094},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128544978},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168162481},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094667889},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181113096},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325996907},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285025152},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152510126},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096073074},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213041954},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066014393},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224030975},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214463249},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124002641},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064403626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073096551},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036889869},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241270635},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157533155},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112559149},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055033739},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006895033},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234276063},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283854989},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213147429},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184552983},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136709819},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036800936},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170010975},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178067865},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197912602},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201146536},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142555968},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213133209},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146419421},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191141056},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365267328},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243569301},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127754156},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205463624},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945618715},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.186667879},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333435732},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317619432},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307298008},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285912106},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292259793},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257604077},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293328515},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22289247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193272556},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229183662},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876182059},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343049253},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275069331},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199048894},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127565996},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991324402},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938945144},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232767483},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340047214},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389260969},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054973792},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015567697},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259754956},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146269891},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166024687},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006469748},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219651515},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217879594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248841712},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267643872},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101849519},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038676728},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197537304},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464748508},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898532889},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037101578},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086372697},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108620624},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262326698},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034411681},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018774008},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291668669},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368424108},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323211953},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359335177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061060682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113685538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562086815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426102811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0666e0e9870b24a330020ab0360019637b400f4ccfd948582ac981ce09c5bb3b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728379487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620592111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475983131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482154989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491670588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"06fcdbcc3f927d4733c938ca693d8c5efbbdd86136f9510600497df456a77068","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507842419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526904867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552404797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590717193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638967061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"0f920e9e2b328ab275f921e8358491ac592627108b56254fc1001ac728ffd829","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689779422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392616116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368948681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100090531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122344979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509785797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509529914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520404884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543467322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575342235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625357723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906856955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869851431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881831399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905954458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"147dd89b0b7983e83a136804ca8542fb89839c30ff00b1e2aef91a40969fed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915793806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606092151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638967061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699654396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785279162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"14e21caf983148a951015e7cdd31e9fec4060c8ea4604f74e3ce9339f568fb3c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930294391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887164053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842854174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307189105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083925392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220397519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491608088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481185616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480279994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486983101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"240bdbc9f3406309ca238c696fc073cd04be6f9d131dab465f81de93455f6b97","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505623675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076572984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849954611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943059357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043903456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6889477511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465670659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466873155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473233138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485123731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"26d1840d9d1771bd02ff900e1c3595aa6e0e60b1190179796ce1423dfaecc7b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504170554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922746912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945671849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963009302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981554252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045141578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263118761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292086182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783741716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337930432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494445005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349520927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348975294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764333536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956498864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2e152139083c10ed2b508c60781748e8c988994da5d342de00a06b9e897bdc97","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078745406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531654854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538154836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560904774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604342155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682357568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813606585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084652962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086491707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986146739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"326e9de32577009f974d5865b247139d08461aa41209775260848be9d64f3048","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074875872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23842523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326477458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312263122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328480577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3dc58efa4d7bcd5d611bd112e0fc7d204d5b2eadcf653c4ab30fdf41235996ba","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387774791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120011303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163278131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193856172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256100378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3e1289c57ea52f9ce28b72f4249fc56d015cb760c0f4de8122ae96ffe69c4df8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253219135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896716358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871531427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092334191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979109258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"3ea48306007417558e6d9e3082151f0c65eed77eb3dd9621fa2de76cae252eb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052684058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991520416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3875770732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768208525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691396235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"41ef1c3360bafba4b6aecb6cde6870d5f84500f3ad0be39cdd4d40f1f697e724","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3642271369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466599973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405162015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942835777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165907668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"43f1c15641c235294c3ac293947171fca2cc468d9266f8ea6a3471faae907109","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216385655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741404282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783654166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850653984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929591268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071153382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156638546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361822361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436609657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060701308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4232429759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494842454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506654922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527842364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554154792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588779698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086474707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882267022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896646983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929404394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"6e9bac5f477266f4b6768411cd4ba4d2c9d065b42eeda14eb73ddeca49338e64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987254236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638787003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167673288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629904755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080460401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29801013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1460202946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871651199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611790032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184187878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"734e27101e4087730723824d0cdf18b0bca67d89cb6bb9c686117d52b06ac9dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035648251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662756996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702642512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753592373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825654052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7bfeb70a394235fc918bf2335240307747ede7f90984fe7d285addccc40bed24","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927051275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636592068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651467027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067602946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713716857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"7c03640d48debf66a4a4764e82b6b8a2e75000c9f9f7b86f64dc0c264c6bbcc9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791154146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133816336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059731538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091618326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268777843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"812b5c3b04dd2b850e5629f852618d974c6cada2db57ae9412c4ddd25dac8419","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5863577809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463546915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621117735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623878977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627085843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636795817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016025805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090166227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602871704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517451937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8b6e62ac7f89d03b59f15f5dcfa721c9515a9d8f7c50e5529d28eb0f007afae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24208372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328669724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814074253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426397583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945585769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"8feddb5c9091b11630ebb135ef715546db087ce0a021fcad2dc30f7532c626e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291598835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047448376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474749384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476046255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477749376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a13e6cd780ae1fbcb151c32b5bd8b74890a3fa5e9dce73a8b196d7ba805e183","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499688691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673404467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561092273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618529617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694966908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9a678195eae4d8f4654163c8c29239d1d605cf4a63f426c75ad2b3953f6bc97b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820716565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078338507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376117828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969553937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120116026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"9ad5b743657885d225f4025fdc949f3837be8f60e2a5f84c4c0cbf33114556fe","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130747364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07712017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771936073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773139195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774295442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a10db9c50d2b3dba376a5acf76c520875d01af6a7a08c265d4c62695eac0a146","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777526058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491404964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481983114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478342499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047985812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a65027a87e70449d043d6c03d753009ec11cf4caa1240902918f29e58ea77aee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490498716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689943739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729974254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271783639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762776665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861835998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473343138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475780631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047978062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486296227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504219929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836841521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850778983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865028944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"aec3f78b7bcd5b919dcdd2e7061217a31ec5886e57e8f49e6d64d88d190e7808","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920091294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466593781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472156266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482095614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495661202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521173007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422742701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433617671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465867583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528367413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"b9644f0584c7a45d3ee725dd4bd74a8cb230e3cda5d83cb294914daf99670587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640179608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473280013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471092519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475467507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482279988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"be0b0754eb17bbd0bc449c471243d3b24ee4e5f711ed49e01e34c9f5446af77e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500045565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611948385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641995178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653748271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652783273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c0519eef069a9f3181d365e780e41c8269095dace0623cce322651fde8f6c88f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651095778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828338817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974963417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225900232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261164918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c08b57f404bdbb645efdc7fa09a1bad1130eb88b89d38471e4f8b0ea084d3f9e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108460325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141525462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203593418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295025044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379024815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c2f855cdf819c8583f43bbe6ad849fdfb75532f3f3b120a8b566f35e9ceaebcb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480087039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500279939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504154929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521842381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550404803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4556210c1c530bd94a602094abc8875e53804b3befd5141a966766774b570eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633592076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771544824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.803348189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873034548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966343668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110530775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613734005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614235879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614864002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616061499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d295dfbd06c894f65bfa757d04df9fb8f124253b4f3f3c6832e0724680a2538b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619344615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554170417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548873557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555732913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572060994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d31f61bf54fe860a6c9dc94c32d0a5f19b8873a776eeb22593520027d206df16","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619677114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383725199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760281047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253819928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455952502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914575854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986086284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984023164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733426348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436834657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593977353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532717351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054390482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059527968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668216981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"dbfa8b923d0016c40e12589fe3def61537569e9f8a098540e27cca33e26a1860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783341667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715529352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767029212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838216518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924841281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e59eb396ef8d1427e82a4f5c3e9c3079a6f09b4967b70c02635e1541df0f213f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058028418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181650353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223421271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4321512641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4261550304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"e77cb71ed23241744d20d10a4f8cd3d1d71d74edb41ee8c7512b567890e13e9c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4168082434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054935793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608404644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693931911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805306607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"eb1f8fe4a204741916dea409f18e806711408b361f96017b9ba617a74e3958c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972044277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796247882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795622259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796654131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084110776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850487734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497733696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482296238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492610585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508488667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532583601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885189287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262385133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066478792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4281042126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f2f5a87614d54bbf15bb82e3780b11ecc17b796b5ed59f6203d853f22e1ac02b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596842345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046185895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046185895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462561917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463408165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469380024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735425548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911284443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7614920532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170346237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"f9a2a27d9881905bd2ae860175c4428a0fddf07fc79c7cca18fe239c4b15b65d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.688256503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497764888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857029136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657861326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3944270545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"acled","id":"fb7cc1364d0ecc77a915a6e189edd1cd07ca72d2bbfbbf4568e4a0c0f9b33752","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532101897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188541509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196038295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608092145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586217205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658366944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982915704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253667146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076027923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452489591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054561298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825216553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829091542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274393904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082785865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122468227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622420231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493405583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561184034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023755109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036403477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059159219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660404503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283873854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966450002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100620858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661155126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631092714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283103476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338292858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444777363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696341905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352626994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462287291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374356098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826966548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680654447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536123773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240593713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087966272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625092099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581717217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520754126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108469357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181007698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637592065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673420092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534704173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912151674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000091076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589904695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559094154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291615388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921402256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004130001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553029795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634467073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426557869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686726195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991028601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753966747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526905492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068068836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218349135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150465056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628592089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689155049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273935937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224702722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639592059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853901211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253881458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223123474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587592201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536233591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344720695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070477332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194340546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622654606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590967192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281757032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983188512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999403578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056609226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681841944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2204952454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146112569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169260443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745966769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797404129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529807209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286553062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.13099686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762904223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782654169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757711157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321524486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120402802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653154522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548967307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221570569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228381298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11746531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677841955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709467494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327970706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115382648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189121185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074030991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792472892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276047137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197966113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101028301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719216842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834654027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234329764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389868353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250590393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667529483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068321694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232213666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160965637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624404601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575904733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293727938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209941531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159028142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642279552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068321694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017967826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103159099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576092233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554530416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231285509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202424807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6444701224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621967107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054052983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712135037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329047043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300402757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647779537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652717024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414292716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273254931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122221547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615842124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648717034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403236447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240337399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165653124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620279612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417945377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194999331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166590622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610904638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645592043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261528002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347135265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176903094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619279615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543279822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241708797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223925055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210028003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650967028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547920434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548521323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374999303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300652756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756091742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667154484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275887743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439331802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201903025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612717133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539154833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270972123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431543462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872835968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247815152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3490584282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817462485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574049749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516916065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217085028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237397473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570336793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037335519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708273916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285358602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857155212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008594714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316330596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4113957582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4807205691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396959538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892800049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378461649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240899938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598026799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365333097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220359294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769013419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193649571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756899199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551209117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3512146724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786520975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4472006494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039688995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058629533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05328586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4203664514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631001739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910588592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303965247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122965295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266439042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188897605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1773463966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338777652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364235164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961684324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430831552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424914791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847040365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122952795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088778334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838394156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424399691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080775628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699796832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382152534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199659115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391312379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107152378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844944494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608696437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311011531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397699847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005741939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618996708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762636314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4250350251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848887921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260059353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376877855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191404136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975674081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079068567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180569259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578479635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731384777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078733696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593396574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161479813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700316596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680372965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4164888772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813087949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489968428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244162277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4236969341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4703324939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355037015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626961407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3953742419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969780928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790853562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137416171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805697862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511373671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801150704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200167707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116542663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908543833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704497018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586174831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386055276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911943216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679717856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439873425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3922399221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998378922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278612735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896991665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599239669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743105623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4266164599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718998359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3928985717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4135742592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4290148458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4675426347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556262484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091296849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564526679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212060938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.472429437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291096758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685507877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741459811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313676567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096006425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816944172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676151815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582611647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471767483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372913997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908933896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727904599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523345952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394939494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205927976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222068592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574924116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351126165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690664401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327423937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794540642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012136616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212996676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469773378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3792163781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786926699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011935936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327660506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356701093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3944562653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191430754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611068809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190722635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3814426437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4118115372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228195283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457688981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926414803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4379899829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781683031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585487176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429553619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255821994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210973557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946314858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302982609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362943677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3960790503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4431956048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098413031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342459076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459319064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801542187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.39854787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789937252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319987067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497070781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.368388689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390414017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270238173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386248425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529293597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625344823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787038655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876856866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202775969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381461162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567015848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3749034919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807492496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334984756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466689236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766283116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961639804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289922925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207801749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577420525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3562338908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3814993715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931230061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874610034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270056617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510481662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704470678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565520737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986031165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292563842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575320613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3886495229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299233874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179709002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722899699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668260391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5272141616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305592984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809097028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613754076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465827112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327208099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524358372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893598504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652985605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244766201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4715090854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550906865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815692249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094873398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259111265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4382033582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900459307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597703265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226493995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714810594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072025373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413524703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927118029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540505301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431196858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192943283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505899963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210453292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193960487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687271918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366641256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252032782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379363832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413081451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077355532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859379816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265626195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712163396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.389598305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4476068808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163249107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381625628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373087817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208361488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199704712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311516582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530261602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283876315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.440422312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4728497742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031993829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257771381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567259743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989248704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045389092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399143831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868984505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4362805412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5109477002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4448990304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781489258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202629742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3833824262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4710078493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887794255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095832971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352761791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644694362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4026227254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286623462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152711489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496749465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916167831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192163709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457104367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551975999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558408194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3848914193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4037768929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065764008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400017897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740727696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109017422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419670123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484684425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709706366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3976710796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427379835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4624294033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4106008325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677418048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941160525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288280022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698637904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968572394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172144026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386861854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448756288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763507929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299777938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862788939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1555588104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133493648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149246984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619694451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397794368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.435097139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4782645634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5451277369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094260976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3798250145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3853886089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172710194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910012623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055993375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714490682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522883733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377928486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4055572007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284847646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119801082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591610314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3695879161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094626303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391202301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664206777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950386595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142981114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3868384564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828716378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256008513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3908544365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4367045241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4853525062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939036343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125335849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325420467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294430829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305067088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878646493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519384924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128832588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125672667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953429474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346804236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548428974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786938445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109822225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4496303947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685207887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615967844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656526468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860398734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4245038078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986900884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099650577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381024809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681172615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929757643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957905489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057803718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201182616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440013435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4724510237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024528509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039231594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107004401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132778214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12845903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164465628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239090424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384090029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515027171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540411136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022919145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032856768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062301531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115127012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268465344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210528002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280527811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389590014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572214515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868776206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022797889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028237249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10555003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104593916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243043538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894463636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037150747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293587548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580774264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698029571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081840853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238965424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447152356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5337516744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4563143857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021294924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021672267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027756626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049689691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099340805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027717876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034594732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106654527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120906371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223723591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021357893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026234755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039800343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071435256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142858812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186794317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194421171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220559225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270340339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431714899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956963466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711586407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290139839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152647704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569146568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021607267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027546626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056941546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116255759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301590254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025934755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038919095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091481452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195918667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514902172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021310393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102787475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058449667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112315324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284090301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179231837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184296199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202809273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124618353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336215159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012200296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121430198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478621263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4771185564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316156613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027466626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033218486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10738565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142778187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340340148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102431226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034627857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074542748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153356283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415855567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024357885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030609743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054310303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091732076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157155648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731779308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818091572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096559117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120034053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1651901798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479509629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941311007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4464075432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782891152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304697901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057653419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131715717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249215396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435527388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857838736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029045372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037797223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088889584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176846219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389293139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030590993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6731887941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5968390024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1659776776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4394144318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027606782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033169736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067799641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129333848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132323082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030547243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035800354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059310289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105193914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220983598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021419768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021984141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028549748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105162906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110488079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030591774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045404702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091598951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171771233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432714896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027607251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033046611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067309643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136606329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266715349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508826263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1768792665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5231053539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4721591463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999085796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027544751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034109108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057519669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099746429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123309044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022734139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022925389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030889117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055857799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105108915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022934764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028199749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054371553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11011533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256902875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156712921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360024866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632649123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005773105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467379222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035341605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046780949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116918882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235152935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505527197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179231994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185357446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212362372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260264116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343480764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532005725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574105102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754827311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4740561666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062126105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024312285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034994131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073052152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138731348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340717647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882591396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960341184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076465868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287215293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1711339136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2022475327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230597288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083665284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746896083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627710288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056028423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138340699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255777879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427777409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745714042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128528226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172465606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330465175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152238444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800925249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023045388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028984747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062262781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112496636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250856017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858397628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073682674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327612213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1725964096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403911871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019857897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025109758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046638449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085857092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161746885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000463347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310025003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114710308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494146773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4034770298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497839718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171002088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479894427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885520038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570515904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102118665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021374149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031999139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060545967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125361984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342590142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469214796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742339051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027463274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363319703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032247395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037497849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077780239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11470438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327715182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194540366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257157462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419996335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3849693838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071695303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167527249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264037582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386954528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548739784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225456954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193987497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572276634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554178366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337736782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185101222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633814137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527462604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752082943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010605759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978349118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177014738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358014662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621596125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206205625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015490453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110312916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699872556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351968189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511592547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441985142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143554281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349841275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638955808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190688705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950702682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149097772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610320241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514528847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321898272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152188837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180213154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342282164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581882032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806763285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4152384516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712343015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584829316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460157951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231690343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4142614983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731468422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376979074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543549144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3735716734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CHD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4063845663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713948688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592730305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551057762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373137303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404459076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689878047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509833833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3668144202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943127505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4270781754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260317479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457111207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744920016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005193772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4425688675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259506953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360828927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509204464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660651789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3939676027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149938666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389704081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329723359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162916284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4340592779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777611382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280062853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431136648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605453773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3895808639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311164092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662492302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527966136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360208939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107419916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727215274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585781093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459349551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323297932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141832561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743839174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644073197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466373235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665920316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987097893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707074263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391611898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567567393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340367489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170500541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312858593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204599625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394782312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3596826406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3918658763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195311958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382780635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650508407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926291542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.431151409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108730011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229325834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336520497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468541622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734684559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783777411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414241645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304148947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20982806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885660018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284712895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433099315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656669739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854911763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4194033594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105256825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309210667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476849154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314873412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204769539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176868249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243506848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305727596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560305031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422420649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174996657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624033007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472328649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348217821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134896601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317802921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324319864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458532054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3608888428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845352504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068428926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206599271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363771976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514108009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373482606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717466056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336871206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514575893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334780823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4025000654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739350934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345806832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358480331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830837636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066682927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270370615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416920307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3686224365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188745354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946020881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704607966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437165051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316387623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137036034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914592557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137352601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218706593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312425988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413739158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605812924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121647277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315260412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3541665102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316591327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090057492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303750825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275865077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588050101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489911083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310196318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730310757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384291675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579967668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245173049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205463969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695339809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512311921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343653509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950909844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4358119401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105179258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236726386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386953917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445810882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288331241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100205418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274390484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467558893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339484668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132687027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332896349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451151682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394081646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280383479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177790134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172111349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334099805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239347634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240442379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013072932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738900407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324859689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445316149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285233625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099812291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201755324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438923109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308978833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4060780253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4505095639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738883914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316999519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517755076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230853774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208433114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229664452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524332302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369952148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203277343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186011249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149062281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330336915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247760841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343415336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123566903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153446142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264701005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522513544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764502235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099681192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232464644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340129024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621241017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244256632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4289900649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069753551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237199673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557358452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23930061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168220206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144616026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317705849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35443881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810212632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4146620108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779949941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257122322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411409991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844290581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105740195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243782897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425564092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639464905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298385202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412413566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296779675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528445021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762553621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083021839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849597309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126039284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709158042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573247609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428606885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249471979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661068257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404245719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420282038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285739977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070645997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236785342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347619475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332165113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4031255737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"V","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4500805216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147835702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318209076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455725394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240281345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224933832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193690304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354150019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506592765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720112135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997971637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178309013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633177694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461370754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379142652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187839723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162184487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346486627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528862911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313773943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3996932805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652880981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652578674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066598247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692597755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"01dc4820f1d157556d2143201cb14f45ec4d8db486fd02261713184772e3f13f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728196853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439254279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439254279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044017966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441029657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"03d9155ee98e3e628ef7fde02f8e637025e74baf1bcdc884eed4e3746162241c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442888196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633097978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624040319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645636392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700943878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809251166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219767263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190729843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064633227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585428204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09b8cab569dc098dae932334f999e6a5270647f83f3a848b0da4fb17ccdc1829","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966302935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445868677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446101753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447336364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044950251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454271723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748656227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946532411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311693562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588149244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"09e8449ecef759940a0753fde27422f775de8900e2297afd570fd8a2decece9f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834942828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485733144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046356015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465637065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467406289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471944734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353402979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254864885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218941943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189326669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"141f95a02ac3f48c7c9fbce011abe0c0a24a501efc13a5ecead4cc6b05aadae0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231403435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602175016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671636295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763174415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877635526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"15c2659874faee783be845d3b1cc83775390929d8521e5f367f7692ec4af1b89","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10429426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454117877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457367096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046494476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475733181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498060021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533867579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527213758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558947486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598329646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"1efcbd3211a7cede0d1096d16e076887993bded8098ef4a90c2025f7b110a616","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674636476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447407133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446717136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448720974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449733278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"28142a17fbd561cbc2a21368f991c853b87ab5761f6737fd30b7bf9b6c08c225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457944786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476067245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364907661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858932848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705081774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"319472955f13a394ef7ec8092a37290110e809d2a53960b83a4789d2a6ed15ed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805239971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4180641646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144457165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974655492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730579481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.422877685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498560019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510329206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533175274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556636725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"35b9b01ffb939d92e022dca223372393c792c1019e884c358b8745bd858f5509","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579559716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588328914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648405613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728636082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08289434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"45a87395232f6db78b837ccc197c25db3b0aacd8d25fd9a6d4c7f440ae6aa827","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945712194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823174191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799866585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804481953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822712654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857866369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406909812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626502837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686936457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235484616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"481aa3a68c0f2d81d989b94dbf311987c84291c12de58c2a10736915eb4cb83a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206880559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523733002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521790701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535406035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561252092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4b3b0fae087e0d55113b373536295bb507b079119bd02e538b982adadd46147d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620328795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261711014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163115228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094019332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012942712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"4e50ffb834adbf6af03d1e143e9a558cb1e8b50a459ed91fa597fefe9c4ac2e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09585583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726328399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568021298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622098019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701405415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839866436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479271629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492175427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512579197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543790619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"52bf60c761bac91a28752ce0c93efe7745edae97141c10cb338412a1b2107cd8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593944278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147533748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213373502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362446022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580189824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"5cd966511a679ab0d39ea5d711a48072a480ca76846762357cc76ffca706993e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995189042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481887004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475540105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479406244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050934844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"608c702ed4bad261f6e4c774c4214084cd6b3fdc17e7ea19830d29909d32c264","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544021388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418095814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429821155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1472249458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538729209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"60f01c83f5ec1b7c0e0aeb46de28b7b21b80e28cc858aba05afafa14be7ab22e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1693839399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663194019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653228672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669520149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691040838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742674491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989262801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099557773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223185004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374605976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6268886886fec42fd812446e5a6f646a9f09c2368c6f81199c3b9cfb5a4ffd30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354544513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571136231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831136688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621291318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247624186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"68bb8dc76bd44d3fe76210dc0ec58f8d882ddb785ff0616293ab48742fb79e0d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449548993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690836993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791328156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964062895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179326706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"6cc13f8928a503f53c02e79d90ec44e80e9efc83b6ffa25fbf7a50ef3b7031af","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493863992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4116441885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244818109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599847662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338125453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416399007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041324145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097938053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1633171164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250095672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"749d1a20eff8580abbf2a1bfe90e79d7381da8fc2614fb693e09c3669035b522","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6046786211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4416083843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263655203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566801522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728705532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"784d7f61078dc6e24c9e0cfdfe1bea7672efe7a20bf2ce1e9cd58ed2311f92c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867243476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500406166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517636871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548405987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602636553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7995b87ae1e77b1eb0fdd1822f47def9c15fa3c4e53d94310b2cc30c2b18298b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654174822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467944749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475098568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523098389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056394439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"7bac3cf9ebcb22130dc397027bcfd98f286cc36cb8de9e63ef0447c88f163891","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668405538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488213904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494579265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507866907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521486087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055706057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664034016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677492427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691369299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694846978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8ac7bdaa41ff40aeb4bde4f0d5000078733b864ad687933e50bbc73a7bce462f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725069942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653482517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724559175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825174183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923558431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8bc2ac1ebb303b411aeecda4b906cb5f3311650c74526302d8f6d7f7ee6eedaf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063480985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449406356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451363272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457040943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462790922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8cb98794394458da6db4e043eb45c84c099a5a79f91f4eb6bbafc8b43de7c0fd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475040876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443752531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635289508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637501807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640732565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651751754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044210023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635409508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063833642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642197175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"975fde53bd3e829fa5147bfd5b30ee090ac81fcb8220e0e2829a2cde3dfc43e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647258694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484867762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509944592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545098307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591098135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"980df3710afe2a71e904ecae61419a511057ea082f0d5c29b9af02783af99a47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665559395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491098508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475406259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489252361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514175345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"9a8103fa5b3f321c8241255f845078bf3c695730fa4735c39f547397dc16d401","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555021346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436876513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300834714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428556544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646051116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"a4289c4419e5d033301de801a3ea245c5c36ae07a75cdc168e02dcee989e4474","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951709205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686206241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710412304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752885223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773294377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"aa1c24fb54d794e52e188956f7b2d90073a38969252512710a65eb8207e8812c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7483838534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050740614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506713835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542175241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598098109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685405475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06436364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630040297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645944084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687328544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759635967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693621927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804559974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651752743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764727705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422568324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875109381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917851529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971385945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094480869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121032659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677347812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06766932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668963228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669744764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"c258d05b6aa40658c2a86d037ad231c3988ea9eba10405dbcbdbcb431e947f79","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678578577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000605066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002130445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035019553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143549147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213256579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482790847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496886948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523790694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560482865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d10acc492b637f535691d9be726842f4241cc9dc8490e1c42bb7f54752b89b51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614636508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064257025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851207163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835039531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848693326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"d5f3b9fc7c1e800bd99566e31d0251f126048d9f73cd3971f93622271a2cd69e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086068482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078631807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240245752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741123947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278131172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087261885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129784693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280187977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348860798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639628942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3144ff38ca35aa20403268d762f53b627df261d5eb3cba55145ce2bec47d76f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696014116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447733286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639520261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643174863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647886384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e3acddb9c29a6f5d97a04ad8b209aebf5fbd5d03fd1f0e1f5e0957355230a8d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659097881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905209488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474463405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942397041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883246493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e50f69a359f2ce4be943a2ee4801291035b25334323febfdf1e63596326db9b1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732628594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518021485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534252193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562252089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597328881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e5e7326536f22814234b9d726ec82624b5aae786fe974f34821a41081058faed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065440559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457944786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453714033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459098628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046632937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490560049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676893528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919701082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454625897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989012252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"e79b6ce29b4d554f08659deccf0ccf239eb6b61f15d0cc07b85225c3dcbd11d4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364472387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801250536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4229930692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877419482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208401871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179169124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614413761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013089854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424183703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604106767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f2ca1bb6cd322cd6a3a82f6b54f06cca58c42265a35aa50949b7cb7bcd7bbf05","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726397849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445868677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446486367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449656356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454867875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"f603aac5459005105dbd3021e3113dd57fc1afa4f51984f1f97458bfb4ec4e25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470252432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332187947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173088487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975781532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364242388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"acled","id":"fb3b2dc4c3c1f5a0e9e8331418dca4b1c633d2af59118433252db5dd18596637","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972935389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23799772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226297838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580098176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644174859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212431482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216322354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596098116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824789569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679574483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229932726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511094697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855020226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823943419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621571255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405760072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214807271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584713543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714251521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560638356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507244821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233557273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767712859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100155814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765106835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301696942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125553096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603175013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708107021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550450574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476430268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481556346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696251588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945481426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554188865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316560091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113917301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600790406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688790077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246501491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185328731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220018862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580098176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651482524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369186792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218066036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200559425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555559806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739943732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618656601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168473075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175196604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621713405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716020745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412679819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124219355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077428572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548482909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619944181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523311905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361392908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261654703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649944069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767866705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554405332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220815409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169964161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548021373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725943785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828998619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266961967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311240684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653790208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669482457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370181306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213399765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140019161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568252066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664097862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594252754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306476341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239941864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588328914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798866589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687182029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088784846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193018963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569790522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658790189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230424099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234066117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294767001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660636336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882327816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943306127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468475735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468171781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798712744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091994306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475367435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115323209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218403483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566636688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066348248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106938625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317937836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248018757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621559559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854481766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185553716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302784047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216249645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657020965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691713143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188399859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466321897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122686499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636021044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867250949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558781662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478783389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427710393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796866597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844327958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516943196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201861347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271941745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577098187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688790077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186861403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975327468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053855987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764328257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453868284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499982187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335710737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782328189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085817406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728066905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299860981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275018656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584944312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650867142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371399175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326168575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335479969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805020412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854943303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236168911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374091473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271941745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598021186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423168212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264630343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384633631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802866574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860789435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382706825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180015275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121501888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584252006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668790152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163553798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233540572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121501888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607021152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719943807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212497186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352630014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121224966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576790496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751251382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628344054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168942288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285833066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576944341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07837128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611866584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476937242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849654878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927166329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990319939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557936939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597878379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067344999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110319491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096550312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980228654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094734605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318568532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254703567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234165182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693163467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917463831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248780512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4043162159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485471935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436164427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601167547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656274157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378121045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244831166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534659933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831540724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892325718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573564683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548591383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763470897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339847226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152780871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647782369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371222973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230282853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753097529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832558771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3891296214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25921718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071158206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395018208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477325593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867728985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464744136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743478444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950019871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094334311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462629603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007938995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089327042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078019392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383816614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870527704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118435653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844628176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908993709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343677981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.441408385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4563976773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3738932527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009184146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744885133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402112178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613705742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863605027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121768144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663691957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509380975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633783741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389184064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303086869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27370197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566967213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863960156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4280561259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980790123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806625567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373854471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572688336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3792731718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711563366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440645953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278445115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102237845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866698336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238569191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834945537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455941295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957855643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4428723781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708875275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904026961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498623613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3925269439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863613832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881133927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783103276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430745491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764155766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259068897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746275372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032331267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315937713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366080306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113406041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981876789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746828148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417213697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637354998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897681152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087763545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719119465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328752399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402486838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490069604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886771207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866343929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434984801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3759480051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4201489763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829747711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922960491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335172925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697027016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051420119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328401392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904782749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570653193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316671862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097594496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228444633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651838583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296854611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486268873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4316516912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236570549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4248794223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4919362973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346044047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107417327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614467027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952602171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590597219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190837711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4682490685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266822344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002682007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850511586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840585793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205580198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527278851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641606317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327541202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769222733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293712787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065479598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317269131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281541473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065045442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941740078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030656856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132660385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290381086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953393465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072294706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218513244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330872666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556820849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987424094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749526054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662261504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558936311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471692633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189612269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477664558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075083584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921305805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4175577299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186934545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534177481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320057483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878936853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.411713765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180583745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586996769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422992963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728855151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968373867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131677617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641645291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516362655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385096256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167925438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953370943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096475322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284502835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344171779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669892237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308044224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941405148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191013518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491924878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3951521381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219455335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530237306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089064854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823204548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705902332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876057402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129697515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254659621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720932594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.398172269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335879267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173129415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190509339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055413243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188932306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286901401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958104057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848020445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200376324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599696476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835778465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673536674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592700279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518155908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493891746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753982542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106060038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513827939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4030849615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003471582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675328469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342007836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4214981948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4596895549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4178910249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698353043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840810831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323031137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700420351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4257066109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3725602369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956742167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375478068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4114217505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677079656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398876751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334590764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195952906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006930091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075236589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745604535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502991739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4120645923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4589321405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849469373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931274432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698014955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507236013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425969368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272708862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896150985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318860983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666116091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133363607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184056513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275259174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638053086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249637533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4029843148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059448394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4284368586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4512012146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561509635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542969345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372821231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963358429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4254584036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794710302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791417103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740301416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331211187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635991283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575616392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002056501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485533658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4101704898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137554205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306432933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269733404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516794887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266294929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196642965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990274887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708774994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485432036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235599668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807503655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836707879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526842946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777776444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045749687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314864077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19390073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576578491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336794882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135099963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719111611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513445483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275851826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080242688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1852900538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647811162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4089288271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787907079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581079538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344598551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769039419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965211967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668594168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612812101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099981103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079027069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350514804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702457903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4137682041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4692343299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674898785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411663634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178471042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902768119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687798904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844081593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040211604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887989288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769716018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620606389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310514529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279319455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276361407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616490449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5007597603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957177898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076402329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239952708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269974061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608875789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896865887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1577421189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357402563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181634732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048054623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282497959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685110741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496763045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740347291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153855895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421786206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207099637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976259618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783195702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1571413973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141808385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153810648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212296583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310748523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1571171396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777343702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732786177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464552673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506090979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"0e36430bac2b279a6b4ef515b349bc26437a0d4a3a7f5311f91aecde2d66e46b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645398151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143961454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158441399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226711144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363806786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1770786035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143654532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155656794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201518931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275787884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530171549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090486267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106430687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24955244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658379571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026447133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176240145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1728786191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756632241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811093576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951578722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741712957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831558775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964942892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150865274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1512402385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136020714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153792186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197579715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266210997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480940964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638863451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614555849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717401619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894016343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264037855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225864994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369249073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.557887882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5092077994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4354699457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054557205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6566956214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5861275203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.508398673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4223650801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132346882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138579935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165941371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214788112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136557601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134116113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140116091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156577591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195500684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282467859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143712224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115179527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197172793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274326351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544094574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153192188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187403599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269710984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419325809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814324333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137884561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150500083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205970453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297447803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539633052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998788919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6495076075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478479434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800862845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331630093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134193029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145964523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180207472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234768037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140886431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960945015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133744811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393864366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760016844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186161625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143654532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157502941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221191934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331403061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653478781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326499233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338729957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373276751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429451925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610036635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862712504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7008381849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6074616107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576555991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4437391455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139961661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145962215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180207472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235567265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411729684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141731654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144962988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116782598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212663505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292883974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136096098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220018862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338787649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524171571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829708891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182249772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342326097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459248737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576171377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756247627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141731654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148578359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184836685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242140318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142403733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224557306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216557336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302787783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435787286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593807305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141655501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147658363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117375365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226045762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350779142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174711339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204480458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332403057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532325387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983092934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114365377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150730851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192893578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263601776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508171631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134116113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114034919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172143079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228672676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398806655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335865544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348481459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406335858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499920124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760055305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18971568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842040894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4720480329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4508098155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723860932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328174611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333946128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356026815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402962024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496870135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334268442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346422428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390364379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459114122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1679478683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11418655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154942951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225564226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347913768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0212ecdf18becdbb0888cd48fe3fb2327af271cef9d19ad7e7eaa50d893b001","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652036478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336785846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635696103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5373849495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331630093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279124376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737786158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789939809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985092926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274784151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973990243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614940463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621094286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749247653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931939279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345410008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136038599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142596843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180434394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245164152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427806547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141731654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155578333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214511959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313069283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159749822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210788127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6294999899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5277772931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177784514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568163934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136327059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142558382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180483625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244730308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438325738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175862466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6301044565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.548154538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.47298389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879740335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857478018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898862479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114630904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481629532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281626543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1647017266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172186314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717628651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116934851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789316954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946481422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064096367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123678803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507248558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108554003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565863723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168047868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844324221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104727094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676244959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143672993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167422904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234056502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344556858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1661017214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149423741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160118316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204152767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281018634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528248479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991250486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191249738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445094944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4689328306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777841046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570017554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739863073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981554478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305399422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769628456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143712224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157791402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220345784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326864616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634940388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317373608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318670684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517828378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760884615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046547364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173957943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425279835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37961259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4127760054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4617833843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31277621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384545152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323589368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116831987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848996443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696668678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346624956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581152012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822691961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982894756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683970725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413521302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283704359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097374084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833285327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170322816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344714392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364967079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193057037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196328336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757443404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363060225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409563676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258501782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128342415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631796512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475807414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340352605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198985864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046979574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838302305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322958111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433496103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226940085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933153109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776664742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144353863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171507172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697402046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349788808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718358957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256402805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521589605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404653066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234696773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745990315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562368015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397286655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238442753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4193965518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704291087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593895766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527458327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722197577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078143932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150593661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274665705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473809663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327343703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132094633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687809788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560711295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438997008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308116602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156751708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754324229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249763106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429333821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239155919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253284407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813017125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279923288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492546344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329423315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136246338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639245847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482339006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329128427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177711371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"COST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996894728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263042599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463846818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323543341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189665893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276589949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125567705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374903568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375118423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197592816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940280359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747241591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612353158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477481756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338721627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188461862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698565833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328142347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421638126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268604298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086305809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656095271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533916499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460484589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234541364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DLTR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189882167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794902133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192412967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620093481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248665553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361851985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310217585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183959831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356898702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3559228811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852545159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175124208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365975269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567500286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800297016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140847606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082242878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271474854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508760621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701388715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038459076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124778154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279352498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475353722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313377183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401423815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718353427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306222186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536942255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810323671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218067596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687442969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554138762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407459638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271483075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082047989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715501524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605533945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448621169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280221371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2079653131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181475177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611693809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482685186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232852522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4048741884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721106969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324877793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550312966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459036986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328391456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794442964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623272817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3446804333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361265323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"HUM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028800618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722987488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574778351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345317267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653747643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"K","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130796867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145095326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597578754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509205766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687633669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974052475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182245848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337223237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460879293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328825379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151456143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755620517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289973692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439168725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380479323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213327017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739306888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307524571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499864123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724846319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185238275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735678901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588427208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441764948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231404855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106884871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069585073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189680137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311868862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494511688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707605449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711754069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337226912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439325002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332855444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182338767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679488621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441085105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23081346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113550491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917600643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773336501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564963416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351575749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157301398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190743803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185998867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321681429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436743334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298776043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098459857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771188227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279981253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346139777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667236492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986268211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160620879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572480137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414304882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804658609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4145249156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754294915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599332089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353763655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299368854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082184507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304539897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284007723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535439828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220615467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201200509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772318248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685336268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311372833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425717417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337944302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195286181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423291151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586091303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809523939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4167876418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133511646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568921081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410239097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272199475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2042851785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115807541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267980825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311603731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450925871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625722119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313201991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215966704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395053149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528743291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825350227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703349338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353806795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412178656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273946291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4141681321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061740489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220466361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380219315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635145667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981947536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824830531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321026854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395841783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414735673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236724652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754338569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576276222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420994264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250535224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016148684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180259326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402519957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689867945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991311985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465348352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183640131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323442195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431659882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280358446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065449274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372750785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441648262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618587772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269863032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000366368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969018536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314301658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559813619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365433401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214451607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729216727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249473722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568356637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475146546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741758689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912119875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914074415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947665228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098866511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0496d3ec0efa0d7a1375aeedf5dd8bfdb78a6e4cd9e73c1bd642cb12c4b8d6f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063073989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1716806664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808233675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739142963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956827795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905199307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0375896864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0376396862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0377729131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0379377308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0cf75124c554391dec92b387feb1f60e5aa8e81ddf9d8f6abb2d4af7f8a8f242","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0381636506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863151111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034142895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092986818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338397644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ede0d4cfdb9f310caf636c590882c0d330b985db0b97a497000c65aac4d809f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509385172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448484838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468121145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511621021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573666298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066407513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511506021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502541047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523644168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502539229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"1f46d8affd83fdab6badfffb996d70737a7f2e2e06f81d430770269e4e51da66","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507201033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536966857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551866815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060650984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660142869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"222f8a6a9ccf0329bca648cb438c7ac208f57103aa3b62e731fd3283cd07abbc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739960822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520393723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053075733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549120913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569757218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607211656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557168671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388442336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258594645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727533318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"25c33e0bdcb6b13dfe3774b119dee3f92dd6cbcfe7c16c56fa48fa2deefc7ee0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880747746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402950882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411030404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042766672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450439382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484257481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0381814574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0382860025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0385689563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0390678185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403683148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657693785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670549202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658615146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651223803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646122454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516802824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525984616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053734822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550711818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577711741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549939547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596893959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062907023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705086376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784422058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452894371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449234836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461941163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483939736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525030187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424984905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451484829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494121071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548666369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636620663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839551901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616467084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620705709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623682064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"51b38397c43736d778e9f90307debfc5d6979ccfda77f1911d7454506ccbb9a6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635586121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7137567519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930321641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113053925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306664655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"53ee9dae07e4a565c700d8d7b39010b52c6f5ce128822c5b47137a4d92f925f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487695046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3892160895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744429954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672898928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311202449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5550267c0daf6cc0e615a7a419655d3c3f7c552d08de876bd52e961d91f8a902","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405576832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062781387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627222963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629120685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629984318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5679eee039862319d3edf183b065371fa415f414ca2bd4188b4e914970e9bda5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642177465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050657072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262047377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672660293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787853145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360814688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499076511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496700609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514826012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523387805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"5fbfe97225ce257fd1694dfb5ec42ccb90960041885669c12b7c5f570f53e2c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522462353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650137175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209099213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951923585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530066931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491277951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272595662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315453266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422792959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611436511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"754e9f1d2529920fd6542ebc31d21beb6fa07756a094b65410db99dee7611b30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158545613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0390678189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0392769093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395870902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040133225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408303153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741066728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752438968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761521215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769549828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7cd6b1abe26d83449b075db16c760d3f40d86ebaa75c6b4c2a048730b65401f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799441561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0385940017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395087718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041130358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433985334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463723885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662859224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070358229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738760825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798135656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871347264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515686196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403278203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301896112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329688578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"89d627dfaec0d96a1554e40989164649cc07bc23b585459369daf7e9edb1f82e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113793576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002889482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064229306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.45068755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226379751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054056341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835038732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891114935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984320123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110321751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"912ac9eafede388b736805cc0c15056677c6986a52e68704ed96644402a0ac19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6258740942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241903022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303596028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330266406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1388868511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471811456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512939199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533075505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579848098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640666106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"9afa4a414049550328d40bf9ae4e56ed3fc2d9332875ccc23e095271c6b9fc25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732984024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413223575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427893988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457075722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491075625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a59ba97c72c26ee3ed404b731fc85b6e6d45777ba7f610201cc8bc34b90c8d6f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548666369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399714068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414168572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442668491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480668382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"a9ed9408f27bc84512158be10fbb5d310a582d00022f22ea8d554c3a0fa98c10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548397734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522211899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525030073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524620984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536120951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aead6661e5dea40d13f87d38b729746c75c0362bcc0e864fe2f14a0a66a188fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555393623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501166505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052180281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603302577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689575057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"aee89ca59ca9f1c624a1944bc04a1cf73450e6b408e2b5efa51b05cea0a64e7f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835301913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646529726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579848098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638257022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703393199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809381532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333497158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496115343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507492129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525770258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b0b838588fe5a1d44df81dd386091dc415044109f8e96b8ac1bdcb7da6e620ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3649673861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223363396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3848656928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443128677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832054837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008432059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804131547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767097108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733313568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702279566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678540998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544950925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053421232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532259598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545058198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"be0ac29e0992ec3157aecf4180f7eab3f254e16c7b56dc13af1ac313db94e16d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527753702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072408814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778915256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818129689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893539928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"bedd7e209670c913bc7df49f7d99a3e0d98111482c2cf4d24c27ea1036d18d0b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029247267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037888339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904432357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276133112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068408706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c7578180a214aeca97c41bc2b56db57940cc6c2422c6822c8c0c3f91474f0ba7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721932879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606405295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606916203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061193937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614405272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624405243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429997163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544315018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553462265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568178132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058687126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612838117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060800904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616143563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612999481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613819365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509780571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504053315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507291488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515098738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc4fa357174eb852edc176c03fca1ef95e43c37ad947c148356a606f23b11bf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527700975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482804749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482804749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483169761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483715214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"cc6a04275c6e01921b897c77526a7779f2b07c6cc5d2b7f13ee8ffc7c2c860e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484855247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486042571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486042571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486270184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486770183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d2cd2a3f71b6e4ba866cc006d45ff5a1e9fbecaad79873d36d0253d3a174803d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487954725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511234204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513098289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531668236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555349987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593802604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072159042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750429883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804851545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874540437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936896622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516405098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524541438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540041394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563950416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"dbdbe1690ef850b339d0d60e51153e30ef4af6b88817ee62b8221b747341a737","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605813933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443984851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456802996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495802884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542632296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"ddd18a73c4823a3ba57b64e9bab2cdf7deb6c22c57ff0077c7da2ee71e60c357","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614575726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405496779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403234967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408712679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042404218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456587542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144937391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106676716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.663992167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187448178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e3ef966eb26d20c6c2a8172a53e5704680407c185d648bdabe478fe1c083ff39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510125437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997159364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061995997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252160453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963886732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e4f57450c0f49ead93af2a13e1c5c5d2535dfe581a480924609b22743ce69e26","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001477534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475439306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495723339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554348171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620132074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"e91585433a9ab0fb3af4330a28521cee4ead897545f1a99f6f0fd1f21f14d1bd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720722695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531984599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544848198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567802678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597211685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f0020c1789458f92258ab6591b0fcc66d703390f14bfeb1dec1151ab7c57c43f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650211533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754177145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773767998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091523623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024456372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f15d3dd84304b541d22281aab3b140ac77536242d43572c98ae612db0069eeb9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132999243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488082318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449620155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841724488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649303675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f5aa930803057d3a60c16779206b5614990e3ef0e5187643992207b436df4595","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697447174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434621241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424007635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430007618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450643922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"f75086a635c11f2ea32d0711dacad8f7b6b38a5295ef577ea60da927eed5bd41","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479950657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480166565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06364843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702120476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792540672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"acled","id":"fc801585512581ef182934d9a851e09c37b442e80346ccecf19d2592d6acb139","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895904012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150745903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922860688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467984782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055828382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3948190262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840861069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119756907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593802604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753222934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.388267526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4284722632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350515271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531575509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081221107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470222245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5117263232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048795471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058284809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785663758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501665209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284974597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743390733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810711074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7122371033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600136564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164444143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605153562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076312587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379334857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818240025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256566679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638975086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599484406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.747978187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146322907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4393311718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274684002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604120756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813362025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178959322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615092475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074148176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049575743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697654421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554113626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054771833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481945701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950489016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125753459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390986129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277739637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775711174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942133463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473809843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785061269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272180142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684393254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011642924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483983159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686463075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118522655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495893793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664894171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4020748733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120080726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1696271884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778484348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993115505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888429946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2005453993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144955205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510848296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631585958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435417388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312425926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501352503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112232494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276923712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580226794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074509223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596984413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744077098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332654413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850189791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332408195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881195418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988482091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3756435012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1831280584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126520288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698529577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894367201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671393491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074643673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506995406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610211648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725302992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676037778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678376929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141018102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662666043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976710599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36229478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965600747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437926727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032869075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118218683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979910942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767447461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143177468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470621138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070257502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4051104071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1669592422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109148086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599757132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830787418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538912578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1788791283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118131046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596893504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729984032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312609102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104524265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530802784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915165321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746096008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444013454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872888672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479348386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718938609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078303174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1647281457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127450773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530711875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737359155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750125698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951049488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312431701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472075679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727438585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713823174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723652017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089261531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604257119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789483862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385187227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686647181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097059808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613166185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076630211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858250016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752157358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065852035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512984653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3886581634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189388197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326333295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900506385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942612515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699517935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1747242007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059097288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603893484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682256896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499365699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5000037905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036724208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576757653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759574857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3831958624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898668173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274686068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609984376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694665952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564212751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790167981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069057748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599484406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828301933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363669083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230857336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449938069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3965472958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242422754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904384135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303959616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475248906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880429565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723748195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273429648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910536928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584532568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818566248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028688492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746520999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3725374965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4729238872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6202248018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5345659559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3779436767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855423495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390977096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296794871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600203094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752953582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119973719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443838634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274467145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542081121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4636302344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.444128322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4087110792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.452030691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138073774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061393891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791029312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968509359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418990342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205100798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424464318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662145456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317065868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4228967043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1402209382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4058703862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090877693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645134856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242273933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1525231222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773007116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361851679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705673236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6237027692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3479021622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593699222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536096489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489713922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205889349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045707789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932146398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261850389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280645806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4045691589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853466903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180833697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792307432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410433716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3807621798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4310997561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117409648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463648669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.388645679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098279377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018653752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163768315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804388354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428620859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826466436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917160774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830876768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316946019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507730071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810782526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272492348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528813472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311623842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361912781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36790118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4113083516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745130001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251146445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757721268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3964498383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1928061011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076345379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400716444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722246741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3940786443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4211865756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733839289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490709427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633659042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3927009277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4290958909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816110724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239954062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353127409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377416261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090542128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338886453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319208638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21712264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059594246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926566517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204056189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756427091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1503674334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343383358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176577386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4002890139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880558195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664205704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499483147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354898092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036149213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895455963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085255064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037882367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259956173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408581409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3761925752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174179575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002343998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586521019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297398533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961478395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937418883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161368099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339644277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549914946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743811432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123540643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872578447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993387568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311843114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284001632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481102585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355903576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050544892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253544405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589483857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957904468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042546615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615169582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423408282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296541178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193355711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983544283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771891867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509514719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3820615061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4236845806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055507971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281326192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555868703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774422343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4043658529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439022745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617444467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212483594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012612769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1883498057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828261185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278899217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001900701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852508735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4757996322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822155043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620309932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452894535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360297559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316249918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442851138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676223643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4006515099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134033803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4234497561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324137109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523056414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357981402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949061714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224598773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920313858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270676804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36903815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968394442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4237850411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680142717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004666617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542688402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3889491324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4268095376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126005051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843912785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675745698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493447504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702147031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552757506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485356016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426049362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353915491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978152467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111528069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334109255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558316896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3889253193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651637818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079896949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527189677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074993256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.473506808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707933655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501157849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254813328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122233948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897711916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751957087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108285176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654313715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884593697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4053608173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115108693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394220052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3677698564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083920282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138387961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387707106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4045077218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4500190035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4926561751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223365159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353425031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206490957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4412292386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4677678759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522279857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188983523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037234696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917023848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1778810397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529041506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.391028133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4315298317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4771348958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967852814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771929524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422763304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140521474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4417328126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302292228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029082101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050880925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011588607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599454397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295897649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483039764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991715482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4692264227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3452777453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654979529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3846482195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.402590754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4135229356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357068036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615192229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3940918354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4245549298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4573218995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276587513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655864036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4093659519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4621495904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987242326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627336606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480044009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4131752675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4316635367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737905926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2395211421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4185126104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4393216977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4509943556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143977221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293125734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191417218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218051093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333519463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718809682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189993873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1670394577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421921774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366002165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176129952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225357635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283474759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188807788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621523201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989023362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325616185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299751886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.186924223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877485313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283975603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173095712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1845041531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149949021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655724699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177092956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028356322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920855626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415361745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340792427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263736128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218324135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219577541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226299498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012431848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721659327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516975785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378056326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235560715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123333238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414981364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728042206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938248784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455119119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457214845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208211805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085914778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1992274182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1913371189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298928357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180668517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958080216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4129637731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109863046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105415486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748537858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698114106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697435033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766781552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726926249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.55562402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207494311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105359731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972988857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362218798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459497412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639943193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931841501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4286557719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788347615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080362064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853669588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952557941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167675962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782667063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790908404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814326518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850578687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962551549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784938875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796122025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842176893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925119838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164937333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780394797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780941614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078809023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810636074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860405932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900210818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005165063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186482726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5825742181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"12486c21df689124f8fdad70760247dffe2b7696599748bcb5c7a738735285d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5084289757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624708745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842253578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.45036096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955883894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024068378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896313557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090136036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926998923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972687883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086210286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781984452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078716796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811360618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854127314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928665282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896484011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909723973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950949309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029074086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246164374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112307518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112753244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143089669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176630936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252166175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895166742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900360818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924624385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977313325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108857948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898665482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909313519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951260217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020750928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205766762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781667071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785713891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796635319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822136041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882817231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.037939424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0389258189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835031005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914767595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112028394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1812662753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1915798822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134707286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298297727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510126402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5467243207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4939017445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983162265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346979406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785432697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081416561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915665319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129755616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429209305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190929884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158316341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784253743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4778608813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356348991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763387082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896438556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900894452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927267559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980574225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117982922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089399584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897404935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915440361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953233962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012211407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007620965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008848235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016304122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034851797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070325786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7290147083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6699694226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6066650583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1521799949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"6f7f685d66034654244163c275aa8d4e22e72015e99d02a1161c5bc5e88ba444","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4665200047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089514356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902509902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926392561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09733697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065028528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7288513964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.670656323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216869396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144809371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1845237419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892894475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893441292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900271727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913408508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965178359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174434445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376615685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272379651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155085673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769242006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181952637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1883071643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009207645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179249897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355756228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789530226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803269732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866813186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998210538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412391171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078176843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785781145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807097448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846824607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962449276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137710139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295664232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149680002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4930881105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429679201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008801985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009620505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018852751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104815994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116392018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151343602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211343431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225570663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319524939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439790119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09019382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091830213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974085607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079119397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132539142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849117194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950571449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117025519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316615857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348004832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782666609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790167951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818268325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867120458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018712297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330885682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495839756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3616293957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816111567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4086565339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893996404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897678212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907770796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931781637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989070109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783712515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078431615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797315658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826870573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089448538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896257648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904986259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939907523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004551429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173494127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269752355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366706623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553615179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292060733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330476301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301346034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483163696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797526433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126752764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680728658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786222967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790724318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816415717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086340456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010403685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207184383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202298002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424772212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742046064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933521741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081334743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893665382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171528224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305664204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713844854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694711406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800802012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981028769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253073445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1682026763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6851511974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6240104632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5495652217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4883179263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193353707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.584267697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5316395241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4668365216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4081212563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441617945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689978425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763114579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914023239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043386505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334294764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744478269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836887096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163351021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645203979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987496047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067846702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202982679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145016379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184516266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285434128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631117026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754796961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366115715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229752469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374840176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786031145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802806097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866915004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999040081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392982136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695058519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915403956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970346981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066346706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313959101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008757326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008895053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015216853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034869978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082039843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788166593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805076999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852813681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940211158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170085046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896166739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900260363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915324866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948257953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020176384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397219544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625308257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950721584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1939845192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1774594516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230144098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399225708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613142743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221611718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077112653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326736331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234104255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219507033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066820571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903479767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340749244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617728226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078760507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179197824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4598274997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247251726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496805963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183830403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024104827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820113069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271384626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348874372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521488424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684683112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930712437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305883238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320406908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220735287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4072762754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19484246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209895564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471758664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121904238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987677059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738591066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355050759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574721877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128211338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007119523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4537376428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051106704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207207345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439988839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305348812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879422835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123094919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362890749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319393612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229335127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104585747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286933147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403142336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242915751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871397199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4223747855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175291837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460424845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354108994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283494719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125267702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367945007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254294068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957083251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4279894445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4697249702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260888636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341602819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504943972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36428941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837573102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340114123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520885862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21971639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3980453035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274044221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781641404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125052619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1928369502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780828765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4852640813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326917162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486606634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747409589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028868532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4351874064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185142944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364440006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342501301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3742788208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062634181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173653897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340271815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529651619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698128795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3977132524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280493844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482636654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684190314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872789836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4187524445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137807236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395718524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662421562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887973121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4208154684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165786926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252457667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453871581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340362095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237637087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326063814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378858669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373690599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318063417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257871122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254479793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457393419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.368704289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946887411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259437453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063427352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306179182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356202098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207760006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4221068327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230747793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402791572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592205939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280692489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219167417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176908759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444482866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294498165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144936714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950083055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414000481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224547285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006665966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800579919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155499002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226193066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381788975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563774303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372315938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HES","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974153115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220020222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418914661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317198444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862489747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037154122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098252161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225587613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446821151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335500419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213451713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187461126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322844365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320541283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191563311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"JNPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039770153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110936543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259248301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423997611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721059823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148537224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208284494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391948786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564914123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3751184033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4017978834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422355058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3677633333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090764794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4226571431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4611928951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171794209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393848765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681420864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075761316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4387126318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189402202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358229948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312317934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220313373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062594907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066091094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321554707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447809294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322686616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987203916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401060396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297381507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116446547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969975275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780753538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132993469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629561312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653645453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674637917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674959766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287600619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480977451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2232690145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122866641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046167623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252709358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433363684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218998248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052466821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874044008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261605456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465501336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718434151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.394030786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4249905699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267272025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342928312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644399464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881709127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4174887953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397748628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322576006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190357146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083214822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1953051397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223264202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423893568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571032766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374501916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109503418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218071523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392977111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339839098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257839216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162063223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223576804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520434844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455157189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388997437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272828195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379189263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555898437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746648483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937639197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4243289373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374478925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359582531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103777866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4180368432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4535593661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312748087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240275717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293877599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2204794406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112805182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124659317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392074409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698466823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981238962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4377156528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441194676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266974729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094997918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972035275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4451323892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286794993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336818979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210246406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960049788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722272007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328593366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417830225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3594526998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707039972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.398168073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332891564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502346417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703233285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929382395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TRGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958037524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321089545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414709181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664534257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897950139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930822686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344487292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279351558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125931448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003662854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840508931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141954528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252872242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380538183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348431617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734992389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214036038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415829146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227294911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124822392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274735466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264671202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493532084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188564575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052039017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4414206808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489104765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494724762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510224755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531604744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"01346d2f460ef9641cbbfd76f83cd6c68f49ca5505adbd7b92226bba95c0acd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571864725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244016942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492294194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280887812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699273294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"04ef52919fbff0c898a66545abe81eb03f40128e63e348a09f662d1524035f59","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33069978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521383296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447143332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636183725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392465443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"06bf81855d0b29e01f018e03f1a7f5e7d14d7d4a874f2a644d360da8671f18eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919103588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111141179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169735151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057556005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372003453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"087192bb1e0199a05ee75c95ab956741c530e1a4fd3aa2b6255395be26208616","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249713912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895981999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044853927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998783549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944143575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"0dd12a60709b51a48dc9ecfb7cbcfef768e7ba9e9c6003a20439531ac9691359","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916863589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565656728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559717531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572849124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577510322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1678ff4d972c0e2681335a82169058b070b29e29d6f61603d2599df99658c6aa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577726722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465664776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527304746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615184704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710664657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"1db71fd02cb758d7185a72907ddb21b70de676e5495c2ffe5ecaec5575cea1cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845034592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758394634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764554631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797274616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855994587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954994539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925728953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039038898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6397489502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380822733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"289abed405f394cb2086add019b4ebbbf42e4b5eff27aa0736d2019941e4d87e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153098426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452915182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453919582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456330781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459225179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465145176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279958875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665686688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748595448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817214615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821437413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650024687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662064681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698904663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763784632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"2e9bf49fbd8cf69bb990cacdfd11a224aad78e42e2596dcaa07cc0e927ab9f60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854104588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571664725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575624723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591064715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614754704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648884687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0362944826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0369744823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0381744817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0398224809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"32ecb5fbf7ab2c59696abf324eb8a90efc1ec8eac6d200a3381c2b3b5a8a3e25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429204794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060132631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619744302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066353708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720774653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"34c7dd508c00dc86583a6e768ad4a7064663f6e9369dbc86be68408195bf3cbb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799211015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566795527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554902333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567708727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559284731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"36ab4a290a05f75d8eb1e71171c9e8e0c6f5d8297be1c8866dfd38886e145a93","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567380727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1688363784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830691715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995057635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239703344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"47b122a15d33dccb5903da83e0bb13cc3cb06893b0cfe6419c6cca692285ce7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996534435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350503379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339263384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714823602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372543368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339503384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724744966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541645055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1377227935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233148804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094474972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641341095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640007196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638457908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651738802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5182040bcc5023c539f2179cdbb79210af27d717f12924ea1de4f4d8469def46","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645776325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0398624809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418424799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454874781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049847476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573466324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524681148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536523142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565262328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006154914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"61b3cdc53bca4d48c5fd124c3f8545264a0aa971f01eb39818b57c26b1cc1a39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817321006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491582679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586737833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714864571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1879601691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"6b6534d83caa2ab09073e8cf5621b00727e3e5fa2163fa164a5c8bf0120a6e45","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581033836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078742462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939698147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115956061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308009968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483742683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543584738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562104729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060282471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066338468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"72a1ee6ec5369a218ebd324247b811acef9e1f29eda329bd8b62d688ee8171dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749824639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601961826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746718556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196397645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172467549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342523467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604784709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06231047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655984684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698304663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761994633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429830243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105536026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307316328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542042615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009821588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752385037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655555084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661755081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668275078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"8e55cc35b2a7ca4dd631d71ce91243c429a1c52e95c1275ec94e572f551c3008","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681595072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663078681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673318676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691201467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710485058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"93aa2a0ea71cd9e300047c9bf899b60e5fdaf27d94d2e7a2a0df99bcfa308436","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741134643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988665723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876425777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765427031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695949065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666517879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459074779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465834776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482484368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502704758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"97cedbe084f58bc06c3f359c95175c8ad2dc6b7f0f42c4f46f351cee04545b5f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537594741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749664639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076722463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789384619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08301046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894704568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455214381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440967588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452349983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452650382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a0d2baecd6388ca8f245a6513ac524fbd2bb7373b731507ca867f83dff32160f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459106379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658531183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770232229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770131429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789270619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a2b7d2eef6052a544f0c41f8b37d78fdc2ef0142c75beaec35e470404ca66e45","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806746211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.035518523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0355835229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0358395228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0362665226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0373475221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527665146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531385144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548865136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577705122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b489198fc9888524b4b01cdb8c998d7e789c3cc90cc055c12af051d14dec9f44","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627595098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604227109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064380469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677884673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733174247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b645702d9ab82f363e85a7a5b29284b4f8c7c37605751c248de2368116deab0a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790950219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409264803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04175048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439024789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472384773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"b6df1144753f09655180469ba0dbefbb2d85ed8dbbede072091e18e2a4892c9b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8535830866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613826235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990872453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825360933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827678932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"bd1840614a15c545c07afcd710445f23a31d995c45513709f17eab6295015796","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778550956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530444745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446154786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047848477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516994751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c3a81dc8c2f068e7ca9dd3d25639ed1f2f373f98f657e1b416487a41e0d41b39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575424323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450015184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453609582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460944778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470340774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"c8d60c43bf2daee08cf23fbcf43bb1bca6d6ab9c78b1afa098980503d27c5a21","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483525168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230107037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746422071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332697379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638686123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb29650b335fca5835a355588909fac8272a36c806b962d5e4b387fa79dc4531","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131343885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.138589993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637702608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707851774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257983908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cb932dbe1f047788e6c93dbf758ba668616058a1a8d51231540e0191317bc5e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898878482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599504711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605824708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631504696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670984677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731354647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546624737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592064715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658584683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734864646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d149d458a84b8af482a7f3192891cc49d422e10dd35cd8ee7eca63dbf654f973","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845784592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706395775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678520589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713651772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848955706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058102405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826082202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975148129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166510837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202150819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290114377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683344671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728784649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815304607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918744557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105622449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005113146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745921271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257989823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326531302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395487757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516424752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546504737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571584725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605584708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"d4b970811ce22f5d73dedc6e95ee9114d05c84d28295b1464e0bef8321b5fb5f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660544682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543504738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058202472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650594687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735514645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842914593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569264726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579704721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599944711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616064703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e16aa58414ab685dcbf27d5676d53540a64c6885367888f37e33104c10830b4b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650304687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494984762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522664749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566024728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624264699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e18b494129e21e38576f3660e4860f03204be6e21fe472ce8f819b0dddc65f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703944661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0348166037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0349076049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0349966068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0351996131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e1c4f9a9452636eb6e31eedf81a584bdd7b12454aa527fe1c09a897a61e2aa12","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0358327628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534224743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573344724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644784689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751024638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e637425ec78336f6e8acd29b79225f27778c9c236b868d80390ab62a72a45ce1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893824569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694464665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716064655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747784639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784504622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e695043883121c76960bc3b860860e325016c2756d85e900d10438cb06953227","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838684595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312463397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341423383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891943601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426023342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"e79c1be1b29a98b535d7a6ff51d1bd13b47d52d48f227be80a1c010eaa831448","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003743547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0389784813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0393994811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403864806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419304799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"eec5a3f4a5b21837462ec4a0655d61d9ba268f27fe67895815faf8106313fbcd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447834785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467745175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481955168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508145156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542235139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589865116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484463314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879384007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299746355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207503448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f65749ad3b8944a143570b2d6cd637d4403ca99adce244370d94fe0103513a25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211463446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138223966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628647644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655080831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502247705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"f7989f0020b1bef6f2c996d436a026789ba7c39ed63e336e5f39efa8f78e3a0a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411663833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472913804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225961523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263995505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256712308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"acled","id":"fc8cfdcf5a4ac34bdd7c926c9425a3763038eb1a7d20ab356d41e2be4e8f8176","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415302232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575823269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644711538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962038636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912086953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094343503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762823179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509062244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866834538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978638802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062983518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692230046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1391587929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791624618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347693821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278823413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463802353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663949055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691922461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711508672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343098334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421463829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1623228241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848708433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436650515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146143478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910514926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480374766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585828304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3824499932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517503298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3541239686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1533436027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828065412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742456718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570688872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421136722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684127964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786195511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735530287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250623427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698792324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.141461404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746177771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334418688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321348305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672347428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428938514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793475352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366813098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024425823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558813238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558236537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818447748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636981204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356143712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719756898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541956259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945836431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3917273244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178103462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4187662973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295524764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601877034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4074488747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357526327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570005302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677689007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591568524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838753035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334810338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468912339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1696961381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751109017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257009353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195835053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004127346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233400608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580793506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216394674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983997226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4017746581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311586983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846064592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716485703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494394605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4209119882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080094897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097514906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602546507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3735303192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411953031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069997928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713645772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526263293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3780038144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413607194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719411644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266822431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315682189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357623155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245503659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571260266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403593235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32821675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816659661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456784752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756080947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366960295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502386013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781830762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5718530909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060162471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179473473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548700854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4026983051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301636915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608754315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3984436315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.367674322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636898418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140484256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076067409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824875677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168945106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561211622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089876039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274254155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475108567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999093669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588544717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505071917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542866524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401303838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381084031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649505087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447249169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201823451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229758969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226911946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635704694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386315154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514826772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554345356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439120426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582497828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225981167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31006635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681746862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1602456856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887059342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616006855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244510865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386362313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139580813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574121187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971433074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355463376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765406228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435268672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665704679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519741648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319089624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4107883469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233733974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694704665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863050571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872647673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123442203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167304436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694384665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983304041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433379785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083657769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367047964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677344674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298116541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390518311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626502119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474222686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759624634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.204630401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652377002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855663618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069663515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588783263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809663641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802303644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101383499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343022334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.409154302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210023447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403263353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179757507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088183506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335583386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973583561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650783233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618684317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4625062761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.667010177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153063474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625023246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986202563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246757328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3796594987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315829767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349098538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334730486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758183181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4651662748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979543558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244475768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201278399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133824452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667504678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848304106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200863458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420611197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4715382717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976064529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802398221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370423369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4773549508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694374724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3686311788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4730464054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491737401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4649465588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3849096775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969347739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4409147042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181828121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590547438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807668993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097994618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503121413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916926945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4402101007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770406293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038766783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333743216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654347596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054722529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717525479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019643812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355810344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765885055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.421271895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934598345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151712994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456435098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730804651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4135818958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862285062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151025196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475936473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801516561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.417640149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322865681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135118813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192559448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754657076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565188038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933209408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215872334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574363261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963420836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4384844986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683613605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969205879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285862608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621491612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990901642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813222542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042732543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358719129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623444655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989393466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085609886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301876584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557474622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38657714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4245419484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012209075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326240195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651015261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4046069965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4408780556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822427137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089766547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410446432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3739890683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079595587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331252335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178981435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056895032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194915275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4463401544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360846803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217387721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909020319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597084692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999385055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.415832725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1804097612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660013974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565386523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14177662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070265975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895001717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797064554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553445585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419700773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707050503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206822016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151925794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295239454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276799215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366028044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038519742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4377961257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515483127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400604251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333579909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606310828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301164182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932468894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684449236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229974144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501309086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511648349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983854967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294840915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186709749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439285955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754919621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651134144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970314818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829731021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711144065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615441018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666913975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555527819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249041041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481986663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465208439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220494553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433580807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573519288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784731428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004964103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291577955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616840589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347890798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3824085325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4231276175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170212873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238033418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228453054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958203894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1968274429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061144228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476376076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276033006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3874144693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128295019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716687268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508577092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262641695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888910134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4196646613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902249591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088232043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409020326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888941692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4167504378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398640219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127414905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914581809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714077673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522576968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713111445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502890325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354659133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244396184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212016887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209930854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247898075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285073295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4051456947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.446658536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740155789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525131622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355108897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3922817614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4202726095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2044617587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375571294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839396463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353547343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.395594718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525579382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980615276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410567677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.389955488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285819842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787074515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044247127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276210334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543072185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643381714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949784518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257902561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431195484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543970613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738991095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2005423673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228796798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674300111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3913282242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4050158296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4151693073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4301638388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4483469844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267230405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518707262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167273272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19395362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1714154331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809785325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325936324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532981617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717462945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989594748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455139339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159245827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949534117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1794123792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631039855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946750177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568871876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936790124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598148268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2192371563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448034454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816846246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090415225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382707769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650475196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033893067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425231894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3821500898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4201944349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4624973024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904637082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120007041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381050931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703008694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036836833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075248961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882916321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942588938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325594604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327671395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330060029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881247386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033809349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315446003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214757223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576251796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843905883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4219558912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3870333699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617634372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881578715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154141876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086817204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23083099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744600868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271735883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768667125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972203829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050412455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856658517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692175228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260397734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523331477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467596788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277432335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125156375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481498471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250358877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830693002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614799725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462458642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353384798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264466216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850036286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950281342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098859267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323972764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410818963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561928702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679738053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28399173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009568021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258987973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150583845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2033065235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4344505659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1758855452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1623775144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753608797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461182314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235115826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961879742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4194028858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712942615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886447414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30091104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958440994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918821053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695494334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816009222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061066036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990962443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890999757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359534855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830731558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4090628851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.436601201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4707669671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636095474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583330688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604421553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361836023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718698407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010825312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022116507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061156088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143554448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136678434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820755004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832306199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877188177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095307454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137104451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263663905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251023911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299623888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412287379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640425663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890344086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980264042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121823974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307623884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526704227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817744706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827905001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087006818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955010139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191554424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056304006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205583933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245946381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709663689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012863542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809785509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817345806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845548992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909980561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111678063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662703712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276958366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987623554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201863451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534952703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019264508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109838447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126290439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458544295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18610641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091278496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924266154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967994533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105546449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291224376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711786257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720147453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755166636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08286266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101488451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011955028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017675345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045118691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098743269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264524389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909825361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920866556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956228539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036914899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238394402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091182616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919628556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960238937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032596502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163596038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743264642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796984616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918664557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125144457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578464237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017744509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050584493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119464459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246944398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535304258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913865059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927675352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961347736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020120908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168010036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012064611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024744905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107622808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183370028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443234303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315979216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5657427569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1680724738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4550432019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3912185565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996904519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105704466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194944423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316544364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520304265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091275466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929644551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975508129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105658009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281794381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909875361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917727757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095249454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027594504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212744414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065304486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166584437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385104331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662834196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083504392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2100663984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203823934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319303878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485831838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772714399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936074586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192038459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.52450598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.452979391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752460866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008906513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017518509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048194894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115104462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266584388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821424704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839384995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886308172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977090128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188714426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009945712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016676909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046751695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110380864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274227584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1702304177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790344134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969624048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129840922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087636466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091086466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925194954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968554533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058104489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285224379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361503858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420183829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537623772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697727481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065791135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091275496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926944953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982784926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111224863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470354289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016905009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022745306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061548487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122770458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259315992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113866445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260344391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455824296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706784175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123303973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136634451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165784437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248834397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1409154319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181942412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514553975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775384142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986264039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251303911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633303726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813834611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822754619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860754985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934484549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115824461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513663784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639663723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813015974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341783383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597868618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091278546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914556959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939117747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987444523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071234483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172824534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150704844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156196042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202068019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355729945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940344062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057384005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213383929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396063841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665682683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018874908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038344899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107722488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144026048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296834373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316864364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193054674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5496667714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4948302604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3848742059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814825011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834164698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880904975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976994528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232064405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979664043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187183942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403583837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526983778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673415221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034424016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089543989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119423975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226783923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410323729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212824814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219026011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12419144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293664375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142746431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351463863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587223748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919463587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300863403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871042747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841463625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009983544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326908714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815303153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4214093168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546064168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585633749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693223697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934835364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350904209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06236647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716224655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947024543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171544434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653304201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221234393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301583887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476023802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644503147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924510941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445543817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475783802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547463768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678927581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289473664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919754956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093310495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987906123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078908079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308994368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819755105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844986592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914918159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057490089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140667432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234477422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329349378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167781278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2008515436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1843231434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561268183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373397117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650649369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086205397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863395728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462760535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152431676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078526541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4421863365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.478671385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254521374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306734261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099307024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936339159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746570111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077413481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512830787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359644878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228670497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920109752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250291739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381469475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303800075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696624353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209017285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474363272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325670575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194683701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127174358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976431985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502242184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355540912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276269684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218544944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090870911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451505367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153016394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976970293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1806226006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614716539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552298824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616459459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682886047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729872489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27789976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690599302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271919185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271109221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840702282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4248949833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516886745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287861008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103952371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4175295039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.177244074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358017814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601174843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880613952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4114152807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4464119797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541081556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413245834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275253414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161387064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019424486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557636843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455135556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375458547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365424012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290113712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493888884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232912431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201099964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066476033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866669302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263543244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400192315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356950035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151692832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1998031783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564810643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243099032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321250662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198966241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066722316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582158202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269366468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380297694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626455512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878615394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096128871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392381558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224265307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3920007593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917838832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182772203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391978187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210142112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3973756599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872529647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501940609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325936023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434911068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620235496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182726856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470969297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235087047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221194452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885105305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024707805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157411609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477383777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351746682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249506228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122556673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419139029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256807756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209877602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964065152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801810178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511147925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409016156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597057094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218597727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080432068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500619665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365546405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599283064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784493788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4048546567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567425619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408049746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288914171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174933837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997063363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269649414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480113697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184855841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073306167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925176109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216722958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419603313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669554361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916507097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4318617285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469925797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201042948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018561857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900092221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180586536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565129516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404765781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311815684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249648381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211793397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529600441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280476079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060035374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1851538085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671263516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565221097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389260107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235838628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110536355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920291563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418845007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241467683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054429096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189321758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1731482671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534673721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337815202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601284265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3847387656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4190190631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627409125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494936299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342183944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242231412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2076474143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276118677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309383807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131009574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017825754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862522228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524046153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382117131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615543539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387734066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4183379616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468915004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453712029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669870706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897094171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924958865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254911253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299241649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124280618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1984362404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18564085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224405015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353960999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169189708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200849526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825713623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495390371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240557017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303146193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225722312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162870644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243318477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235098113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216667655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202844174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1870703304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228941814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323002344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2165541357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2019164433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848434729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507519949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387740915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312587447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225848988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191657539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530565373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385028156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264032342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167172615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027890482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459110408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224600845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064197198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897607348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686526967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501639511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361239699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248343697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131265492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020638456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184842709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364543059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162306958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072327465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859797715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280615797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378942464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221174289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121664629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565669103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385491895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215341121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025250545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1856060598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512546074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293404936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218940283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015850643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428840513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322536817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243764391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173610156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087020654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462756488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528594056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767514336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4064931514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4412935422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514354197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387276001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245934024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3905268912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4257480678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185372628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403549826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246849746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128360349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013204913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880487457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812092966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725855312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653616044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595670272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606551819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383962237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175053531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974996202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174724553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548704449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401978866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252122218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146852029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"WRB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419468313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212117702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327621196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492093092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667895002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3942669286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281442692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305223108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174990584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4018694234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4390141057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706185845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073982343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795807221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865276873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0b91490dc38bdc5b6fcaef9cc8084bb101f50bef357b89adbe23098955649b2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956668249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636826538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649449641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676354122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708853086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"0bad119606d7890329c6982b23f86f826b845f4015b3064ce8c021b684475a39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751581705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600527229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624575504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663376881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709240328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"141c201122df7e14cf2ddb48607ce290b0d3e8dca7d5852b19ed0f167ad56178","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772061705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727332055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748043433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783913432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831939292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7639503856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542806886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565802058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06184324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685858605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780848946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612823435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066103895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7891857631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853107908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"21982fcca1cc5db737404b185cbbd6143ffca6c69cd072914ab04d4274f8908e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027099281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598936884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636538607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687678949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764183429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2780fd8e8824fafeeb8bed36c955fad96f9f38cb69ec0df94b1330613b547a2e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858797563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435375048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449099185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355896125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071616442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2815a94cd2c6ccc2950c00b5edff981500bb090d99485029205b8df0fb5b68e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164202645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527190045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527384128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538643093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543675507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569002057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153995709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360719918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489237154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626030252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"2f25fb2ff990d10a07f8729c29755b25ad1dec1b9fdbbfb33b3f8af30b50af9c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666409522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062960309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637545158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664853088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678353432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"30852037dde9d127bc0c0c6a9230fef1321d7fb2ce22bed487693e22a8bad51e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722007224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551100334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553101368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592521367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653329296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"3383dfd82875c789d329ad5369d6ddbfd782912d15286cc9e68bd94e67bce862","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750373085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652202744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763237222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920306182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105071997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"38572a61e1ba56cb16578f043b4a474bfe30fbcf9bdaa26c12a59f719629a7e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249685479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998512996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958133687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973892308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982444031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240754366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454350686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458775869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468666286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048202344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503172405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863271701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928901009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053133763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186719964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199521688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524084473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525982059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532231714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538665162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"444da803de93756d4b54f49ae7ffafd2aa66eb112576a140dbbbd9f5f641cb40","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055120792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103847997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101834066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063823417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110547553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"4fa969ae82cfb55a82a74cd8216328b5282322a72ba2bb821c22e10fd0aa8650","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257444099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943789629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850477908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862452736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883099286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"50c614c87f469d41a8a4be76d1622cb6b46a491072237947a5264f515c4aeb10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928349285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595073867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619184814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657626537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699981708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"52d12ff46535191cc31053e70d088d519103190834e0074d034c834d2142466d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782935497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056775654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590459384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627154469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671714467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729888258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878525149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793156876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739355154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736195499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783287221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576253523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572804692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581309385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599815246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634303089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546450334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556247575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8883155868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8646118981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"6ba13517dcb7ae71be29436bf40e975ab88ac8ded291358f85b162dedb0d98d7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666694123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670034209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624727659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590982143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566805592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7136deef44e4876117dc7f7bcc724765fbeb120c47fc4dd3b7710059c304e9dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556545937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467755517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473170359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049466245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527036628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577220243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627671366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632357572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641566882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651155503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"831f7bd0d58fcdc6f4b917f43b1065794f0743609baf0f04716bc862d496a415","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667903778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814547565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912478596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057651004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121130617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"88900c75a92d2261c172c97391a85adfe65ca38664d1c91e09956eb459d899dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428719955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4158685364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4124547435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054306058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396823365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"8ab1e9f1ba8379b3f7c1916316a7e410f285c7761e2fdebdc28c05674e484e9c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282444059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073506481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7375650755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891961355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000616523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148547552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551352403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561022747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588201022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624168952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673289984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432868497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433041115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433596718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434875942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"a5f7d9636dc46332fd716b067f480d107d08185680c24fceeeb7ac376dcb11ec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436942494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624558266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633974845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679905846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742420327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"abd370f7008067794d307d8078be608a59fc9cc5a6140ae84d5a1af5f1becb0c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832001013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690074902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693455257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698905588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707360674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ac331aa22943f476fa00b24217a37b140046927564e329b03f2da1e65e3a141f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721416881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501099305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531452762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576383868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633039296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b23ebe3ac41a1db83fbc4bf7cb8be2a5793af2248a5af94873c932d54549800d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713488604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3751409518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333926816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389099227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.382496124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b2b6faea064330dc4874ce842a6207f0414cb5f7d86d18c4bef0f06c4ec498f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706823313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441669652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458682076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483349044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523183439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b4746cfe25d3d473b6fa397045743b6803afb77914c7f733beefca082cc50e0d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570570333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995280277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4591245692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4423581906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4266340532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373685435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693457922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450423409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369837206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324457897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"bb37ada897832957ed86044f8cc5adbf1d7b9eddd9fcb0c92767d5a5dcb38d90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986423428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5595030135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457478574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1552754433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686995807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c1c621382bb3454268fdff59c61a9acb0599aa87bbb1ccd2edefb3a02c0f1690","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1682719945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455402148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461056976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047283801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489824905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c2c447e34d901f61aaeba8112969ae66147a42885b87f798534c22f54f91f6a9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515450767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650074127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618859656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616243176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627699641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c5acc7371ebd008b20a2d64230ba58ab9cdebc1395a5eb9c5e2aadd3f4ac646f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662553778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579634126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591108264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614648607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662773433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737909637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474581943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740788868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243375056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094961268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"c999d83feefec6fc54c864168dac5c68171ad939033f345836502b2089413ed7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211237126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531247411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617903873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625423883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626497004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064078362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635316624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646774468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066807826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696247225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735017913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721040672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742632395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802794807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837773081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d624c97fc49aa38ea304558cb0d1e84d38c6f7e8b3ddb3bdcd65adefd6945fbd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093817756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514328267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530206887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557600679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594572401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d7878e307f9c32d542171d8c5a0d2697e99749446c2514da642a28e958a98356","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642406193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477901027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507383784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556564817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618314814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"d9c14625f757e5fb87a7bdfe5154170e6fd569a1bb4b215cf1fb50e704bdc739","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715133776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403244399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758133656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798306108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300806472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312837506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046477482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459837234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465128958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478242061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"dc9fe064f3baa6742b8c2b03c39ab53dbb9d24f2950e3f2dcb0b62d959df2e2e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509157577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333857811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327064707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368133671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920788861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908857827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056958413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570068613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576316543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583930347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0c6b102bb7ddfc5c10fd66e8e4f82fbf057dd16052794c6b92c54bc2f51d825","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595945591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326512983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930306102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007271617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111444026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790375073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165616438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101202647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072754373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383961257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e1b7a404b3848363b040dc8005535f710fb0e42f2c99ab7522105761b11aaf92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087202648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465652406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479068268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050208275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532651714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e48e3772ddd1f14d017b4c9103f5c2c58463b77c760a07695bf82a92e1ea1bcf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578067574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833394464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847668257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089341999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935902078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e4f594a0a81c749c69b5ade5d1aa44e149c1677bc72a61fc6814d91e6d922f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012076609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310385782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313275437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193581954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261340572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"e6c8934f55ad5c913cec5bdead27bb4869b851ac1bb03882af49251b067df9b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936168171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219979018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173600744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151163772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167378255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220899649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240246169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229593756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265245823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6255529764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f1a26e1b856a583cd0bc87a54dbd38c55374f264c0ef7fcceabf437ee82a0544","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147555616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630423434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637819296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653818413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672448691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"f67c4303f61bb8c8f005544c42034dd02151e61bdf3600fd1a7bbe1c9723585b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070677688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642626196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658633792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683922484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719079638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769849981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167591344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111695829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072444107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081496175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"acled","id":"fce2c9e19842f641b1e4ba334fcdf796acaedbbc9548adc5446d9afbe300901b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078342037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3985754337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637280291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200754791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702064732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301685398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4142519162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182286408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443243751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594933016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199967475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128064755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157523719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219013066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986685411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814513003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4607650864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502961331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260168582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107168164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323202639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408100126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178973382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130314794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046556098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104584113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4309168117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5819685299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190694102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815513003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316013368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198858545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1546980295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117087962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4303576738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264769301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134064754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1659728566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337383751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606892283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049409546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859685455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309719959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013521695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655409522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270540956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4475030179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500616504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232340652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237271608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832650934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179823295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5789547369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179547551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748168179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199616437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3971237096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1594900983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147237552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218140958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794719901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4475741904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1694460979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734376455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040343684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745464263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980671229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1553886764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538464311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336119452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4485409489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139927168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969478593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507512976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835788865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4540030177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418926852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105509928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328995742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738892317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4721237066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455099264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117030657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831444037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295840955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4176155708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1766604079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757190247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170948852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906693791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890969733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526142161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479107641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097728306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.471540948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339478579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927478595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041306098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959650929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987409588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346685475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004487213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932030201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824444038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954892348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349892372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987556179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387616429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642961286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071961309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1521995813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212935825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076581959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985685411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256547508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1817935457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361168578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075409545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036512995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949340624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418797541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155039276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626478489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554409565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901754419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338418234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039168591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586892283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598892322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234774271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617782916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288843619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830394898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835153558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4201754328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631823395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274830611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857823347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949409589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033065143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797306108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710513008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210084189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606988461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353393989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932393542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928393582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648211325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181204102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083368584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4347788805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467857845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811547526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331719958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100522037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4210547431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512719912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956892348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482995815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241900996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179168162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856719898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450397156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775431665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384647198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079101355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109801268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4875202577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327961338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026616522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799650935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278512985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752650976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140478587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746487223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.402568537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419409571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469594396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897357522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524449347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476136771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29855561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160375059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293965093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978857825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687754388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205064712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195961264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124857819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985375066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880581966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261321415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303514901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810631778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091011077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336493826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950596292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900492845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785561815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733837679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406906618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057547477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365237159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888306104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829015298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608877376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309739456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4017463527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258338539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717306071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517995774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727719903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982961273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110823337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751245804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254142375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834556185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138271651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4145788813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789099172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228754406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904099246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393444015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310761644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174616477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231133756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274930611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519237153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230571992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1923064763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554513053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479202672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629685425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652619284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4424033047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756160194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193196418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269272277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643581976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3828168136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379168193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563271634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608133701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350685396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015857823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383616429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770030207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419427157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871719898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605823357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638616419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842271584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010030198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4069754333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271454749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303820265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378892292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3806616413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202995747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022995754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284861645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293995743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700926801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059857821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887581966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314857811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474237115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542271596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387340567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718271589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049685447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1880892351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706995806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772961281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094271613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482961253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393865089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4468099145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898961276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161961266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345778884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3737202622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062340541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898616448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301409536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606512972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811375033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4058892265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3460685392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940616447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342237121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377706469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218099155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374202676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954444072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628650981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418306162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244133755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769581931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800375034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240651302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3886443996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4043650886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186961265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549409566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277995783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106306135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4585754313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958478554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161313374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343271682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197857895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111851307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187860999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928280319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797219635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312137506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309444018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463237155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3705995727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363685435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052650925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182961265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360650913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508995735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685581935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104823337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219409539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378202636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524202631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466892328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909926793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29923061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895823345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336271604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757995764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378478538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676788871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047892305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417478497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754064691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158857818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869168174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432719876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3772857793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4149099158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825926757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569168146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395961256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226409539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532685389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057926787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286323714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680340595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366389228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572375082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200719885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991168169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826926796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648995729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527030256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783547487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572685427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390168193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38572371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214892337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891616449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791099211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324168195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382788883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333823367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334254441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639659602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067581998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616340598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338306086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687694082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143866478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669754389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143202646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720512968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170823374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2022513035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1845168214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180947856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176182339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3661099177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393271601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230719884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220926781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496030218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343202717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1603444086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104788894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563926806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758547488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584995732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294099191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369961257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488271598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766788828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566961289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798754383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993616445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815237141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871788863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016616444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315151299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676444043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634168183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850444037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313099575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697961284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640444045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798409556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971685411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995133686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377064705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753719863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084547515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865340627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637719946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290444019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338575436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547168147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711306072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981961233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000961272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133512991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770754385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243678888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206409924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545206711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795792908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094275655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.348203426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950857826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804168176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474995736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709133658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4016581922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820316732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079627066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398523606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811454624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835926796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634237149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417306123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228375096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2001650967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118961267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286737507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284085783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916719896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443685392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891064725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220306091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770478522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583168185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279064749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261837508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046995753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443685392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3913926753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455478495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380099188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361788844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292168157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565168146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226765904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505965294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704689424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3960689414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4427064664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561650944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3912099167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151961266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612995731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963581924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276168158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331671988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356409534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589030214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507258227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327757545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149517897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028557729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927132478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701478525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963581963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275650916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587133663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4017823301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148788892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263340611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097133643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751547489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451099185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784478522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995926789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284650916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569444008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440857846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852995761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839754382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589271633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394099227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219237165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112168164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943202654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277758197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341289229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492547499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469857845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414168152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191512989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311523713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817823348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075064757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784099251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515513055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333271683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184995826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177340575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319064708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455133668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707719865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956064683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802038866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906728517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172099196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492202632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052306058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341340569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739099213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613513011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963892269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4467306042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704099175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680375078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4155685364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595995771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658961285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5054237053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5417512901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1546202709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1388582025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112876307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537496628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557705506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620214469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720026534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963314801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519273787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526931028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554018696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607527228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746612395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516766291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522564577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547761927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602086722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750812426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422650989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1560513053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785719941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4606340519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857306066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516834566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051845767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529602766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557062782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620381455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262168237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148644409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4894547404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4100547436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279237123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602972404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608358611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632352069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067447076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775206877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972350662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053973763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316892373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557375122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025064759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15956165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1694202703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1813513043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006547518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203857855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606445515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619933193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648322789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705992859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841272133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691721719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694514835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712723966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759278002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863337577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604653435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614383435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651506537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722179638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935176871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786168945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805351014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852418598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933626526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139832035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543548265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578124126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648607916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773306187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109719967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780617915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799101717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843209374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922467561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126697553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517549994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052520827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558328268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634456541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820155237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302754442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452133747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5158064635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4520719833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564581979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051418245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152306172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641995808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849754421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340444057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107719967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292168236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1603513051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000099242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558409565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603791715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613314128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636064472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677211377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773367943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1448340644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1594202707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926616487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349064746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863857829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6713995608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6222237007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5239099115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.446265087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628168144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1725513046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1884375109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132995789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413995778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680616457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519412753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535391728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564681744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609637315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704454466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321659614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383788922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1710099254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970650968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539547497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208444101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350409613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641444084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027030276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272530611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514547537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713375116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4370306046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628064696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861685415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853909632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935845491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253659617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497237193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029340621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606342425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611455556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634796672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688055846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819888613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894013079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083003072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305245822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476754436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130961306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775311708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784213787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811952738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859024805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095382618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494892711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1669651324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4674926723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397140951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276650916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775411022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779861797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798245179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836911075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948496267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699668952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718946621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777177222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882944114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150995828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263383754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376237198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684616496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1821650974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227658199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527928266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551930334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609636539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070472619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"96afe629289d138e2c6509aedc247dc4a961ec0b4c05022ae68db47abe4b91b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933219974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344685475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1490719952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1730961322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049409585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547375083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518412404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527312059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551906886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601640332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719576189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520480001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533483104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562525182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615276942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709875304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603764842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060386847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618146331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649327916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ac59948243d13c19d7d1191d7c3aabe8a44edfd0d1fb9972a2eefd319233d16c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704982511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693378346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070527869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751813899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832540199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019792472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609766197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619874828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653625244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721269638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903326527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1806582009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941133728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189099235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396409572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8181fa81ec7af1afc15aa56a2286320fcea592dacb469500b309fda8c76cb7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776788867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603860425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610690339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631952072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672081743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789269045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211616515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422064782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.186975442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428513019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865202657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606386887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612986628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641658275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070056938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860987563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516064779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631099257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888375109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106052342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385900951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061963559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645517227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690709984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760584464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905711355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994340622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071754412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277719921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509168188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834995761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4907823266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4428478457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787650896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227512987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724030248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267513064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406582024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5139133602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4496857765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646995769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586383742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1667547531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792375113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966719933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170857856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167306132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250892336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504375085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807616452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228857815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602204477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060517147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620105949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661666913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075043662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621142749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637893793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689866622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784134118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078926865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689033867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696586884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713281376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745193116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824762478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104234066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202030308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482995815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878616489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486375085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516732066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520876215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538759735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574182061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650054482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014306099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813547486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624823356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454857845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ADM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256616474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735857834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558237152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321823368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189754407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ANSS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995030277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881030242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753581971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262575439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493478533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3970547441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821176796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610064736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399694054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207409579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4411995699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778685419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260581951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254996129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597064697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408995778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544478531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385961296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223068544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107857859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966271658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669064733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613030253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545237152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534719872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376368538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654064734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526650946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386616469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263306129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101030273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701995767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564306117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389857848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811478481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4172685364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848099209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354444017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245478888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306513024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4292926738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138306094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272237123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441754358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243903026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3895823306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852728519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314851299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691681629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619143701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505785085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501650947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368306125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245306129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997823302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4291340532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614521632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562616462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416578192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333884057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207854062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694616456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503237154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316926816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214151303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19357889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396168153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467685392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600133662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3756444001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3976271578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868409553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717823352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566444048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242227164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262237163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835375072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623926804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766099173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215444062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200844407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27209268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256271991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401788882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275513025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134616479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641444045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466064702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712375037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968512958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.430458191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888478518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272030227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553823319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3823857791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4225857775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581513013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497237154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417340605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356685435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3925961236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680168181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525754394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236437509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214340613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041581999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898340586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832237141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738202662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263851301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502340602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529004394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407823364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256452681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124064755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974133726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941547481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868823346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751513006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673719906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572788875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685823353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420099187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323961299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141823375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945444072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791513004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723375076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656064734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609478529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512133705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898685414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796271625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266565094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531719911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370030262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822064727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186823334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276616434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410547463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648168143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995961272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847650933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697271629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564271634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391478537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136961267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264133675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252320267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636892281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291995783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660099216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560857841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445375087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343547505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248099233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644175424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646454045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689857836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713284042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846009899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595513012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537547497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416478536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371650952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262133715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674444043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479961293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274444059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083961308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1856168214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816280245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766547488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688647146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652660941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660888527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803831969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674788871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528371291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397764399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222609544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602444046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532857842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418099226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745030208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4014409508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658375079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387271602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407099226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314030265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226961303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704685422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373754361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383478538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223430613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036788896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660478527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481064701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234237164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202282338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PEP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1747375115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835133692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732719903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606133701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249530612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356961297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836788865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727857834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602547495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525513015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414375088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874306105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781340591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648202665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532788877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398754399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869754381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724237145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570857841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428478536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273995783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920237137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762616454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600064736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460064742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4116719849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772685419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26411337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466202633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236499578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"REG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234823371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727340593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565926806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666340556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288823369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215827165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825513003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669513009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491409568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327271643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150857857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692306112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557202669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577995732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3817168136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140719848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955547481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849478519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700857836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256971991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244278888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739513006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693926801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656237148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451478496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3598306076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651926803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379271602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566754353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763892276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4032857783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562823358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377513021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176202684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4245409499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4693512929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544444049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240889233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270961301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216765096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087961308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693926801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621168184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567892324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469064741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317340609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755547489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592064736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452581983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301306127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816444038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697892318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586892323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499650947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387030262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988521617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885513001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748340592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626444045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479513017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683719905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568857841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462064742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414581985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229258199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538340601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362409573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175961305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4182443984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4588099141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257847853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528961291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415995778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331133712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201099235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520838111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519929023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519610855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519383583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0aafe67a867f3ef3a885f3e457f93ee60b2ec588164878953dd73a42e5186f24","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519475892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779266641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277908255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326835206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042641796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f625614e627f20ecd22043655e85213f2fd46622dbcc9d3bfb65facc3bef57e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235499881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586823822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600969236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063971458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644196385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"0f76c09f2836705ede48640cce5afef3de7f5b3b52539cdd46aec63578f2002d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695108967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540928499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540712136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540917135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541701224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"11812e52b4313c70875c0f970476806c4bece3d2505b7c39adf84a7c6bef49a8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543287129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465815077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049322409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532678523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584632919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"15ab9ade31e3d06c11bbb5904ad9512315bd8d04d4ead999b4cb3915058f8771","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649225007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180887123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253846914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351521634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842537957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"19b6840b22cac51862630f9b4263f79336108a1aae22b0283829d476fc62b2af","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161412952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598360153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06136342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063759095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673779937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1ae1e1dda977f7369da77940683d2029f632c1044d884ab22cd7b911fffaddc0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072519979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691899431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688247168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714473002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748821995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799745486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430007912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437007905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446962518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461371908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c30974220af4e3352fb824c080992e6863e22e7d59cf55b16ab449ae1567b4f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048129867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422292934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420474771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423432058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429398477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1c9c9d7b576258a7dcb4ae71399ffb2f0bf91c8c7bc9740ca081022a6ceb7ed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438860155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535053066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543018966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557330838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574791584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"1d102eec5b3c899fa95096e68d7ff084443d712e67dc91d3256737e3fb321449","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603674683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465905986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501724066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558179813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625906892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2447254c0dc0dad5a5497ed8cf5cb47daa35ff07f8e5530db7e1cabd92144c57","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716817996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628993247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649670915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647713289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628201177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627334929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764360132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068750808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735655669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793543685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2bbe225ae556b715917ec31bdc2cd9b94df091136ec3b3f39d71041a45b6ecb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868088927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746536552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077458194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776052867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793869253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"2cf9f1407c7a35ae3cdffa19aeab70f0718138bc61434b157ee53590a956c1f7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819296793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094015463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092293877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929177388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951404597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"365ebbc4669aef1d1455160bcfbb55156bd5a05e9fb3cfe7a6aededccbd69f64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995405835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451416941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466098731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494018747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527996718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578872936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802346575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891886773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038151809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194419999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4b9cf739b31ef0ddec1c66a0b6d9dffcab6dad3a8c0e518d8bda1cf74927d76e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295601159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329635198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257147092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247725301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323726124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"4d48e503147b168225745dabcf23942fa1a8f042fa72b9487c981184049e5298","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090352569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419202029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415657948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415124768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041569613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"52ccc876c702113b429db82ea4e6c66481a3fd1274a0003b8012becdfc88b1ca","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0418844303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429269727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439951515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448452854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460500547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476882773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593640942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558959223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539515642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541220637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"56049d9346ec16d8289932a40a7f78b675235e6737ace75eb471c7105e27a569","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542413816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754955801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359806344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912033079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049811321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"5df98290d20fc7021ca89a43e4284a2b120b54f6a2473ee0cc309dd34de2b9c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305440949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486724109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531918525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603193321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8361076126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"613133dbd19489d25cd4d49bf32a22a11a2986d9361eee0b5b19eabbd41499b0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827210862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435917436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448291946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468225525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495511811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"62d4ffc7ac1aba2046cd0ee9d2d580c343095aa6f55bdd9233964662b85eb4a7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508837227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673024672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206397692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313955061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771353936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965605653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838586288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874461199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929767955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099940446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"734cc2c67c3a3a85a323d41b21f7462267979f4d115aced0b28f63e8a1d0eb08","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088962386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811305052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271018502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129663366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375669935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997943742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566873879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591159264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607891035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621057361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"7dc70394daa920e16360916cada735fd518555af86433d2ff0fff9446b849803","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648656827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575826126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579723843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604827407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644043204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"801fe80e4399ce14328807001d519916c28c11898779ff0c43fa01f0ebf61c25","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706113481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131358628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199507524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945306888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055128392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"87bdcf532a0d3d7b1061ec9118a866cff99577ecf4644dedaf8bd7af78b7fed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373416117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539110322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536075786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539553503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544564852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8a61408039d409dd2defc7077c78d9ed0565d44b5eb78def7147e1236143ca09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055597391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428019731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438115611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457502829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484133207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"8adecc3b9cefc00205f870e78b00c6cb48436cca2a0c503fb6dce563aa2c5e09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527009448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570522104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383817639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654441864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304446956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"94a703650024b7c355023a0d91fce37a5adf1f07234efd26881732a4f0e2e27b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206156329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584451102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608645578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651363638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707052569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9b11cea95fabc92c5dbe17eb24c49cf5aa858f54725038ecd1702138663f985c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783699623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520270504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520874138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522592329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524561437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528474744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255709957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500146985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639537495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706717303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a1996ce7bdc102ddae2d4665090c6be7e1c78fb2f516ba0a2cc500b7e82a2133","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910216721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062654189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651463637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713056643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786563705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905983364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597007884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604621499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634053233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676678111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728770234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423781107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427372006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431508357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436690161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"a7a970800d7cd2df5923a81bbb8fafda0792d1867330f4223adb817b799033da","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044771422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955870093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744760242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767259723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645680526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712305335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445110591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465928714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504257695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557689815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643212297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466508257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479706401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502434973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537326237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b21952b29a054cfba1953aab6e15b322a13e7352de820f9b220aaf171c4a248a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589225179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757657424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807750463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944775071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066431541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b74ea990b7d074931723dfadf46d3f00532b0b441fee7ec41c0c83fabd299657","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060513376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800581392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950895508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124656374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300952688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"b93c42646135319279acffe697d376f25a55b139e1445ec594c1243571f875b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1368070678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642098664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638673219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658234982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684814451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723542977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572200682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586131551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607359673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634655049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bd4556bc6b041da6a292e12d1e2d5562fc3a8a60ab9eb97b0e5e1070df8fb2c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688813985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557576179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059557607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633867779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684683997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"bdaa857ecd2b6515c694bd0ebf6888baa2dee88f618fa6a018bada5a24e72608","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748056088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467281437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048215594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512740398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552882556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"cfd52ce9f61cdac0900077fac761edc4aad270e46ad1857a7ab06c68f455527e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608617851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481835085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342421525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3478879185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649482921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930398936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312721291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102270803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119498662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239177865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801128985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876813447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011004427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184710748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139951377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d730705224f3cb2611f688d5e91096b2d0b085203cfc95a2d7f2b10142a1345f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522179328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417057494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417799324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420371685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425848828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"d804ec3793f7d324347ed01f930fab78714b6bf68f0840e5889248481fbdfe41","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433782442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465189625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049591681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545927576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604223318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"de704df3f9a5ab634b0f7a4dd86460e158ef26411e258216f738207652781671","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685333995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672230904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223132189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484407805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041943617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226624906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506951323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522134462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547500298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592234716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666381776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067625361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320488274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002625547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409578928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5adefd3f744ff7949571692d7da3fd2304ea6fdb6fbe51a124475930c92178f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921853051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813961809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865325298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990280395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093369646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227596534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393544106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3741687524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722168943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584807518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ee283973ade277059ffce181c11edcc4ad1d9c2f01d4fbf8df02243e7da4a5f1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278780798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519589474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040672616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407737521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409466152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fac1490cb1ce92d7144b57bb7dc858a8ffc0b374849b37ac2147b5d38dbf9d3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414467515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414565342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414928978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416986144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042075977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"fe9af79b3fa9b610f03bbbfb13282b9b8787246d935519fd1965ae00d07019a4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423871147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667918136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675593114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067184767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686832627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"feba82eb6fa6331fbfef78b9eec18775abc23832436a84147e2ed75990ce6313","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725431607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720048441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804090473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915102428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7016307246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"acled","id":"ff59c5034850f3cf551c4fc91e421b155085a5b7eb040c9534e9f396081c82ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071660162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411369106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.531984151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7335976386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617810489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984741037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234534455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.481361444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6682943341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244450577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822300671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800263123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235541581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761404686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617881776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148059621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591073818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5404072655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083142445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528291483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148839413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604708039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5397834622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863382075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506944341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931681379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165200983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080205678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702188947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336411195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330394214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575782761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751254033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278812297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829355936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040422349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699879276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320817264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765722856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461416487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956837813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712970507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1782900291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270494139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741148802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793574776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763963369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330557483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080158639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743232844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752713837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474844689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093511798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327675794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717791493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409878992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541004793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161858002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641583986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868098322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987788794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124026061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957051854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427212494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128878137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723426681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1603221513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165585348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428809087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822999508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565449383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447232639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092623805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161967831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793017279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659167243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355082302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903267917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757474277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895447407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606498024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106221882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146125984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944776194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621868649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432397001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100449171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741690712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743701972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877579978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274130492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939813267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355294116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166844492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737109844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538199737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080721955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124073367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268182112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589821181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511857085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111176732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486868402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886124414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145602788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139216769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812040905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412490167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913001876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155941637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.13380394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998404008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844086666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012328995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432508072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140892722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018313042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700240302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908486471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492193221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134647652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898259295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1552116685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997948481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280085021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864222574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273955609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049552604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196312533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831143123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791047533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2001100449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183130753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801188663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638530236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106826819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255982106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369751602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843268089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628820759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325206834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353043259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1358885335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897404297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785877519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687805193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384706512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252589491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908904264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756720021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073586657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252614954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262127028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971313177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536182829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735426454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036410976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224812452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904040642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597777658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644519386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024237095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281221381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872779822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964938831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906903963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894141882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999585823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603961955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746663741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687573045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4335890237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062858369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716722996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1778003418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505289469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305614164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427533423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399641356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210510774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128807562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236471619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542260367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998577243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246260439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197069649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343488208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685759956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006622315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052125406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144452777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102216171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322089765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303163016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318851915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445124281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.414462228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4958484043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896314049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312229026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838993558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611638029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969580642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4337032285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979942987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203636004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420010774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3917477333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203631133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547633787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156460859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370488131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855941288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581909114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187552637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4289591062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404232847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035313448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956621337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532239669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665161635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695821194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201176156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460325222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184850362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573064588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4664675172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569417616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595669305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072669897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579208851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4883129405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696461744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563190359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4088171195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.185857631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690490077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159801393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703671618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036430636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409539479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836031592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.432008614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806142646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006622519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342143155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644927368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3981387938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488719086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814431539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213774037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639859251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4139672211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366017575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656047397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051261608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482265546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397689143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668111242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965533411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280044991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551091303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930699883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791372001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059021923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327909469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604378883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880517167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776890896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000765093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293395556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603376202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3938864194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715611999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944206984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269920288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619881369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3967403079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286968849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068957249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296269888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543566763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3864197822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038526176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229606646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488559399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621456493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777566541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254921983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324718065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115218647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960905943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825404038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2022306997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751330649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524988591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401787199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188505913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428909393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373793787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325592854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3867372999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122025493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610213074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390936467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198994353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047287598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4618734799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991317928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587496464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258980012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778113122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890013749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842354576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328305814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983387968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416795912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4595599731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050493321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080998689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119251383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823905822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901623492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066293971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137720129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415961791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706595961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160515558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699492582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462130959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484668299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757359752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233819592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820850758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721702808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298908066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606087964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128257681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534126097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949807953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723268487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575896304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509967499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3762140237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4064277621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904832907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667119251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539187294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789443385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211878885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008963781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206056784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820821266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360203363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546189199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781731229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603961621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500425105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708836939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351218399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768221782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683765362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458727548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360078492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457683491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747747391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603009419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495856116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727003031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157812062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089619255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234232079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528909914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218070853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078634756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380837999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726306246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251213442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851143529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682793494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084635943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731181139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129388674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475282835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3882758055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425438149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850630993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057150705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732057952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740352347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916650747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873386878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269696407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4582115175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930954844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862567857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417927766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078013607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319362185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901650459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4173508868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4377643109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4808589253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311405216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614517138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057197849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677973539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350339738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723151764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939628737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210847766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527731879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3873375493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831206924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309223954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327233851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473363763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718013927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597316573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458986636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231279674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144217618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986970942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396086096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710815231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161869002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473234733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3870967971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935496828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254470286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356104245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839725662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4194369939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138930587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708946137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647538273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042870358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4526324367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837307653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891848269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960406811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043727934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342490992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295521835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655975275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601151299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3943427141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397062479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327933346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563868562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3821744097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4152528857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450625201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725434825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063274047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488231872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192976772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755705582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312241069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354098835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601950228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883538151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.237054815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083624903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990172066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458712769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819154694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750565823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113920341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591620123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4137169667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4320068892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819888724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231975691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702569594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4237137252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451065179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3683038404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885683692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901128765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901224046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967285556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276887262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3739652052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476813981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489084967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374724698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31991396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339660002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245983586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208008854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906912217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138495395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564351252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603364819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221307587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545971798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288377988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059165957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859780389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648607896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516238637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190996877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085626364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451542196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220298643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070079855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733260798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438711492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229671688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027068321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211093414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903897367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587697552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369612473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172809212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269825442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791146732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921622444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161636553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305319178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698431603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226329595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350257272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992670063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4527547031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477104477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656657989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268317483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283926093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272452801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967242478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920970103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888135445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347173031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3813578796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425476802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336140401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314631139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285920474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361707858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3865130818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003406806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276018003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617235385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560041797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158745027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169518064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207907954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285478187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447540905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012037472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1991492076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2017446548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094764508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242464614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938688725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950511873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984564502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052953398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281766834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219312467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6120843899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1626165071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4806472576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999009403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931779204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944870184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985552227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071699253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286585002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276880939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425600968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1622397223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847120217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195320584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818041806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827644065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865906778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094463553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112780954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617853394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5296318893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.494485092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4543420241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4105364511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478490683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600081244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784035264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082537383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062528284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848393074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946799156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109565873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309704936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b6d5c38b8ee7751461358ec55a5fa80040f996b824eee281e00ac6593133cef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1689012942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046382053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053917486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076101513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128972271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269700505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054597484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113044135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202505697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1323766714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155462969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066006997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082735585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122882743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196364351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1408493744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303585522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341506209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1422829158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539026553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827288001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935313848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950052783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993679022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091594651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136323251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315146767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494015034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4974541955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4376073249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439694541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934495555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943506893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977905885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058405655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294543616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932860559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940454174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970383634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036597535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228268805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155625004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685932817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802327389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029091579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425552148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820598153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832008575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869245287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948233697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139949058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815826803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823146329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843968091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877840281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"651abc635d0c4932529f80903fc95b9442e49ca01b4215b06a600cb74a435106","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944922002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047597963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055873408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087028868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155722195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309041301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081687135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824270434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849045458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898780202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041689794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125662212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5843466063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5066216711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4323494236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518737341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487912996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660371378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1879881191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161891538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568080194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933041018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941041009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972677377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043541152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119473481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.166499301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1774765424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946583114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139900628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239887072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067221993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087994661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140312693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261494165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783310854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093395147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945053725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972910104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028251196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194524356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930769202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942315987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981370875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074906062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341370754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132900763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118718985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214635527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215309618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356038898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2044991923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160491593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284491238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4448348684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4246635477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933816239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937771114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962931042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005750919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089728747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1594913665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1736401897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912719574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062037329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300900282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051132948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059180653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106153246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203551149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462675407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577172219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687035541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926418226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218459381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729547749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932972382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940790541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971006378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038949365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122558529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831690394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850181251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914279249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041842066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136181206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820269632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831099487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866771771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941425535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140226898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047450691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056815678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090410222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163783535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325188983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934144192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094569325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098478132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067279266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303278136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1655038493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729265554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869356062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069310036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363685808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823973257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842939453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884727061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952946411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128646363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477584456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.534711884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4660438986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000713601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339624583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156405388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163497654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192410322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257327936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c457c0e8ded5941d94854d81e267fbb7aec5144c479947cd9178c689d660af00","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431836882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391627295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952080237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127716098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940716633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515669534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884824788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033585726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277266847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568129651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183309709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10475066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058279296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094722387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172585896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412179188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887168144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194634752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326135027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911072893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238938751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418274946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433127176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532217802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833356668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162820797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860813493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967813187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186858015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522766145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152355252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838564466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857099867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902308829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973506807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184859839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043995814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054827047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097644747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118577529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389253799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567548366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372141661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342445677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351688704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239138541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591694811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446533422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332847779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209395825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087504792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636882218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369559393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350092484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815405143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.41559232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642495161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327853677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414933491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691100381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3954755396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194781258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302021965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408955548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277696759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ATO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128468042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186393658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385597826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651007532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893382268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218852979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507440695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405496408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296245098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3846010566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094460786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806789838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681818242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437250631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.368953642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062216625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700211835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622071735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523139994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242806066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320799646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632734915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303156044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392579378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545427124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3755825541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627156126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462126605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3665886152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930289267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4269649655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737326405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262709467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517510549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400078643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278982701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264000727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465475709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297414117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214844016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003847022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564760189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418905497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267439944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401009893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4401194527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645233954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363801628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369087112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264753042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139559283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542964061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421216878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745877893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999634027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.435077857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600879908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427675644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286433449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146680371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4252252651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113159653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233208986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425781316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3605501692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3832399122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638513209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482158733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362624704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.391569899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276660055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346113474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474992963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623807692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3790400784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4040118261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721090778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591799942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498874951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23995975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309015995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604964437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351850673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3807569588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140043883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4630691846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665626468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559281209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458557008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357545894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"FITB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245602089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700683777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335385705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496915444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730506189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40649123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436370553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229063171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112114255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1946259895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749081719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629181117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462149034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296803791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141344416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4266066387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581264599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420478405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227144056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035471002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4483116023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374200909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509160652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304101696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245494036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177947986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26380544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473721897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284857527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109914815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HLT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933103892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660834434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257050612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479379474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354256597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210653552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168861106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357289126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2311560596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3914851236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947859329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657390516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478669905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304809747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186709004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2010990157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142935249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286946666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434488003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651683707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3939647608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508466185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393339458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714261487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163075267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060227522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675956142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256518664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512208309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413892983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316315995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627804072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499747323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356205935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226702064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210739964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670543366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3353630625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641148284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956054311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4297605894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266200032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338643005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543432741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722431857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397940489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765413299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666810133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584278702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501404339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24165323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620989918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251881885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405754168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309591232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173157437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612688462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449075503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226319561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080461699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189915547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628103454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500679551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344313504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170441117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039304572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250209997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497196961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397403997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313694118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187499453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329356707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23967625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256510154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116142641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970878969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278661982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128869897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643105252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3429339176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"NWSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664510362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159219003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520984054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373858033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212159257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006627379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266804879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238225416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370530937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537213558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731616251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548641741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368150905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802063907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040200661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1867440351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542971141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477897705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355590528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837109617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096265742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237474304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374537882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393635231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299413193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193087556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712785651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245850133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341002204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548809359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265206521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649237855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475514962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271440213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101761871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931202346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626818661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481240569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324834177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183614819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052561795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534791733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385845572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3790874919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4007581072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4283178054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582697134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443700977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345009541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249350333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153519171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588729832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343873811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491677017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662147703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910246394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654282386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25845088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449781501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332053141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2147768588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594984039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461506299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306566385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158544071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999285299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260207117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430175264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255936878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102020125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931315999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451874592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260758668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3973672261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4227921573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178160719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168002265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291557405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438724302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334964216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177347694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650991737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454826312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720294201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167052335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015185228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657285297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558628752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419906956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682366967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3948786459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724191021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754770479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796453542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856819278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"00fc71a02fb3b50786c62e16fb709f746e9999ffacf8e426a0463fa32dcc5eb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941462673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537316556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540918819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551783787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566238292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"08d84b25ed07be4862d40e4e51ca9c4b15cc0b8dca370d401ddf860470a49fc4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588914136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601219101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613640429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631385378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660149387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685912949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807072603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826066185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08618779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907701406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"19b556f956794f40ad784891ce428e3c56a29724203ab83b52d20d94532e9ec0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957303536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046513449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476407185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498770757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531997935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"1fe32dcda8eabebcb3233c7468799d8a7be39dbb8e035c7607f3cb96e86fb193","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581588702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736201442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788508565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834746614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915780928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"23958ce12af866b9fcb3506c3e56d19b436074e51e4b3fb804bfe1f2ffb644f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024644253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703145173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710838332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745292325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785360846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"27e70022df39c1286195f35f6e73ff0a3bc9823ff281628630e4e38c3f246a1b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839519782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04170219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426119147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437815932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045402134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"374d20db009e901bb92d4ab0f5b1d2e33ce1019cf561eee1e75b4fc68a290808","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475213097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422464612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426339601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433727307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445979545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"37bb9720a8980c257e8b6ec59b1d9e6a30c36e5ddf38293eeccbb98175dcda18","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468418571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532237025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539827913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550965608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565649657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3884d50c869e40bf8dafd318d1841666ddf2d3a6a8958befb9962e8fbfa882a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592384126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467544028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496518491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543646083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598043655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3bbe65cba1ada663992b871337c71ee014f315503897beae00550619c0886cba","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676999338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979296153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083182184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131480682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429141194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328236483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065677076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670725265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699056093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732387816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781690402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452373617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457009968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468227208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483968072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"436b56dbec711452fc8eaab9dd4f18eb80112950cda18c11a54c9e242f78caa3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504429832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8449503011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701568359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773963152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7531663819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"45effc3f2f4b36c0bdd3705be79836c6f20685f189da217126fd2105dd504b34","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949358559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581089158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482362168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050668028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545998349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598045019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1355511943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1403463169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526820543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737324032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729307691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664327556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689100213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747794136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834682978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952064915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890339637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921064549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976398936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050611906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059266426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621190862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650599868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692599748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762815456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083478116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670008904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068859976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715406501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754997297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812008498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266300502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806082793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735537085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849549941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"649ef19adcff9d71b160d0b800a1763bace6cefa008d641ba9862fd123f24f04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058556161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555180141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562543758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574499636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589138244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6550e9c72e857dd6927499208796557e812571de330f74aefd10799aa9fe32ec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610827296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908990038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931993609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877467856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058651428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6abd7481f55934eaf6403849337b5b166b7b001a5914c2aa3c82f5966e3b6251","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014325646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635653093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070209063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772372247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872132416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"6ddad58cd4547581fa3bfda4e1afcf2fbc3c6c7a83676679f0212232623832b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985109366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468909987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439364617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414728324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822911835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7020f827b201715cd1abfd774f2cec168daa8227aabf2be4e3dcd3d47a12b776","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365501192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646462795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492903234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427247513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420836168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"711409a039d2c1fb4b00672768d92cb9a092282d3096c8f673be2fd44915dd4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946695118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521192057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528112492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539386096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556676955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"72092650debefbf0c8c973d60983f5ca636e7d717ea6d584c53f2de1aa9cf049","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580276433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627043572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649453963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684054318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731190547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"7f338047d5eca2dfca4bb766b2371c5188aac4ad166bf878b1366add77cfa490","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788088111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519816606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520475695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522577962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525339318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531612936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610131802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611570435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650424869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720171942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"88fd3752ee3838fb46f66b14503061e658c46f12d26909b975c1b1f5da69dde4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075188367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517532067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535508379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581827338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650854868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"938371b1a1a68ec787a1c1c24976264e7042e9227d6a95d8fcbc2e3fb08b83b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731974181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778076776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798219901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793843549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823608464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9994df23bccf6fbeb343126c2f01a84231237f2970106e143ae6a44d110f884d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7557787835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425771421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437828204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462045408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498513485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"99aa6344239ecc2cedd893fc6527bd6b7d82b6e61f78b0f3364b9a3ec5ab4416","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549645612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363684646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455075294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790087063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741923564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9cd72948f0b09ec8d0e6e9d8443bcfad462a80a7d044de3c15ba6076ee498520","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743631287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628419477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062879584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630099927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632368102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"9fbd7500f94298949defd9d8e8f06567e1cde07e760ed93ccc79025279961114","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641137168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801213716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822230019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013627199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268976014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a110951cb1e6878652f5697b879f988626c2ff2dbe44be50f42469b63b219e80","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091554703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633737648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633328559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637097198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637822673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a4d24c43cb10f0fe11e49b7ae2194a39433d4e71218b24a6296f92bcf7183310","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645649542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455100428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474202646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499179847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534657018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581315976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468816752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04615895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482090805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520638422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569096011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520896149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525384772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538396098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546748347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ac7b7ca153f613fa81d9c0eff4f0aa25bb62bba04da7610ae4eec7e1586425bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569579191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736192014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745115184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074584971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769238165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"ae45dbc5ad3d8f7b9e405255b4201e97aee7fbef1f895794f03074f96cee9a53","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076711999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568089195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587998229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624590397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677183429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747917772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262094028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299948465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393957287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468586165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"c3792ed73906350a1ec5495c99397d11ef3873284bb5ad8bccf9f70df9dfda73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1537040514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029493784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009147024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002667498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045389193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"caf8045bf0832f64838bf7728a5a1f30ea5c6f739f6c3528930d71f749569ec5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089754976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729543733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734251902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756986837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773818607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d154ff8967515b7656737f09bdca9d620a6e5aac0809301ee6f461d0bde3e8bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804267611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697812782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585651284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642295213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1753531258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148084221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4305079868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180704127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372722743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456393659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d2bb7badb3d0a1acccc864328504d7f226b4097adff8a57f8e43aab0a051ad65","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280228709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175092646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283735972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898552983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887411651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d392b398d3410b7720e8ebc58aeaf9b4746299387caf1a09992bb7529093a77c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731823005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754764125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074534597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733783744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754903229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d847df467fc41d7e9893d00a03b3422162b5d1c83088dfe91685acaaec55c1b7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738057405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001502234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921816552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231581121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160672233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340217174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5132802954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.515795061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4975860222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1952197963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"dc7827b14e38f0e6c78e5404377b02793ba6dec39990f72ec85310600a5313b7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066459454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363719967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586432512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089134256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148854085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e1df9b16b73d978f78d31a83ea2d6aa84f7c081b60fb27810b249389bae2eab4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248676072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23456431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2469088201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678658056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4111907744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e24c62f161efe95f5a1b28f394fe3562e3f1f6357f1b0c8e8306328ec8c354aa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552836598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449671406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324984945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581891028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959990989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e2b85ccba2abbdce06f3a0e52d27a22f9a3c13e62220f2e3aa4ffde3cfa67dd8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803855072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562764665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058639187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594889573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615084515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e35510d7e711ec7a2001e4046137a30cfea9fbc946e11b99cc2d319ef5b3c652","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669538451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683243866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704696077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773019064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781410858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822997557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373127989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990731355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227676132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958510993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e6ce2c6e65187d1883dce212dcb943e3ddbf45b0c8f0936001e3060f1bde2f7c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409080613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529646578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539334732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555031505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578418711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"e7843625e3901e4111e68ee658d5eff63d1a329fb5bc7f62b5e79246c1125adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059670275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801770345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794599911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809453505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852092019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f13c393f0493e0f437d7667b05bc11404a2ea470d9e202e996d9b884ee03d465","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927462713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972033548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224493093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723216078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542534777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"f5bc3f62ca6ec4b95b69d3419a5c1d261a1942da4746a5416bfbb2fc7e628869","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450671403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209291906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132326217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128508047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112513442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163636582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4486055032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137249553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1512816673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717490067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065278572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1413449959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178780175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251068878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002497756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130622568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918769556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610631213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4572597768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212107533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033782341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398586365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896087547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625244995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058112095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779951771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302768457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830677931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793042486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141405282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.713029724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273599204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000248759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1766746688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189590263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986895071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899130387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660733912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4452168893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045240019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736539288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326222935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199394225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194878561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309459592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960780799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424313564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289309723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786418484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193052862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995871608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354950126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676279388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.169029523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180950624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090046279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1364677371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601910622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895189216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382859137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6811218607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656383527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163890397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091178153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963769427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147177993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267698297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165495701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058269157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796997177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369905083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995983035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1643634486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097864565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770417707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520358744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493809487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180033966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207586911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890190092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334496094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668264405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790907954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380086418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236825464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700390509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629996168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087814527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944405846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103269028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674358067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872518249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319041138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126359871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153113144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026906651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783991256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102388699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808497144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341450165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738708723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862174352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395768191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359916021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520495107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253645715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587607209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939905859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.782229526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269632188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643678601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583908245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112189457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968053506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641222034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725322509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1879817071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494222455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6659537223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418040855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775509311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941145311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123804137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888224189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221189145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887346365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143549559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879599213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667281639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151812983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333435604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634323432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094734961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764724996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975395447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392223814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814474316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010826111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424313564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615621247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616890334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059632789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840235689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393813651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605672742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522156471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049525925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899917337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722267257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453273648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627857816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124162607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988098903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620689274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587291053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636717492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074905473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909724127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790203071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583756384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665147156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200416477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978224386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366859183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262295569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642601832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095098597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917371832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827585138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637024307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1769761943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136689387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815781214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301904823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592251039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4910174345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028769241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086558789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431222635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269475202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732720695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198234665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931179066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1567858608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741647895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458124584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307309766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850040943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319080851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173400102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046355403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005304353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203444838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627216353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697253496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465305278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844533913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073399755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639253736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415745113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445444145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852317981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341535352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108310564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410743024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004406947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4642254885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748079643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591719315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915594575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895234843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058550488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551810338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615334774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424527645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871538398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396795746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4092555053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434476836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401009681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527909819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880171993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906260751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004346673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513311574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095678595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962178977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068939992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439075949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123993356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746188621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550701041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996948289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293580924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250138812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999402828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797596587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142402419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068387906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186488261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835160814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687136901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023402759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270808281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212328619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940899967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618040282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695491745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236629578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916320255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068676982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231493872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432910925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618207964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765216721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294429025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152534074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464018254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450254281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759927391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880122244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137617905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337485967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593085991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431061802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241865744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067852154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936942187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779717801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425263375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925756355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368335825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3840747985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4281229134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823965365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027513003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253993922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3460085819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740609392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978648522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159623686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417120101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681086182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990340811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309232776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458830545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331859407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851191488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094476175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098226174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540670179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299060795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397165277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4286037321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4509514656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597062144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347079625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192948007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102377309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885229132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554700362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215545475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741316936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924437582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167689493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"CURRCIR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10147472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307419573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311473595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678864227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269923679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786496372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813314739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312757001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467571341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3876065438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4191839624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288756057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828500045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683295004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602151306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536528608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930541874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216583937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508848362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045148099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366222588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767395196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955647589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243207011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739641677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374787856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827665291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082504199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370822319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688663527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129989828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928324187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317026104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867434845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510789108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743412492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822262277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306163469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313240914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513231938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254019131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115356154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423648891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732177411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033846483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920997324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627552032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254925058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069502426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191065515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450761236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555447966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376039695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226009032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207370755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898368999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921605166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699168792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15332454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443401775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414515199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175241034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151068697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127927552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198926992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167949562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689661122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083989571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297598054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054918793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800367228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353169904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643936843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036479375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416089316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968658702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221116199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300331026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221692257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628894354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4074964265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353563959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989165163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567236868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37378467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633160315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352926648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481123655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491710435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3658929142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827311746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038955848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366120487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765305356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339969263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160739688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859514987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249677093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436962386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670838145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304468226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103851438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206992869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252096329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008869244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281241662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606780123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879586553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4112965326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957301771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284271235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678879113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033569738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4297106335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253149214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24261247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317121668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269733093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220255247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835627243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978952702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3512437638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897125322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396674675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552793575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077503035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888498843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699739841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578911291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864873817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233077514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595283094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4045187678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782196965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684503707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301702841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392751583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905926519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175214905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465067531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654401212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919607747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237111747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499110836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816930509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313042534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582761301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931379485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276813429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573111964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713023908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830771303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219873498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316598791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186948282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313580015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341903274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057720572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320828341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358264412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3923581712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731996244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390294635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38868737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.381399984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774959077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306747169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174408423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935038927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410300281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353545968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890889302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1673770878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1472163059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337497684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244151858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2209358107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647843691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320270824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337442402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.417339607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790793579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536498345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270490583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057056646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4532178498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810263634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191398439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556063356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20834094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752493715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910976898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190247749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564409065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404201128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1794109537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507505423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161326875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830895807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430361173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802786059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428918712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578197807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835351716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155639101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546954323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199749514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1719667278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491818449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370926112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284901585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061884604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830502813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610066441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487137573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384797304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330343402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545281495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294594116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274883334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135062578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690304009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359155431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456057215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563231123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698095946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852047479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610226736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681654222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656866585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603149183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341910788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314200346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715860119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269756549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647915132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212553627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362515154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419538631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314810748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218586836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103368105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034317425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039955232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058776428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100396309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260998122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126632038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285121689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1318389322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418963125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061542897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107981864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136295752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225405042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436949891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927043623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939682678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970239863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025326524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164598398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128784595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6258870375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5615601084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4961535122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079586338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042793296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104697783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076750926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125973967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252724982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404838335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5434203866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4801477966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4212789468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690632924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171302924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232268659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336086544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148604066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717312726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921327735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928455551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955150815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010432475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175462003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939964041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095391991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004341129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088057253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2cab1958b1bd726695b512f3fa260e0b2ad5dbeadc5c5e1bc5b35104733c57fc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283188968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899591429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099049935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6896483818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6382315743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2e88b046538e239140043da9471c2b4894615a12173c3a52ee707321acf2ed8d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5563883994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930736794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940289949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988042994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068531855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248643612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042974655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043646471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062873234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103454936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181235168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926133626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935634962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971780768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640724897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259086764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042088748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050226452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086288167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145159363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270643549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217586883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139740455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644040208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987130136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427583421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813862129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823318011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841249323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872246962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962553521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103967921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042271475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055910072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084826353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188634238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077837223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834587978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092386045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106304187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295950295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948508107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044723741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199359662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449586219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904903098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816055304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826477092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852987471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900967334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050736905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140975535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292313867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500476889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1770856615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191125904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307575262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438784432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609660306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823448786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5569892613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080325912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118122335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344268338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1591494904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051220861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097084367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237667801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613573511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190924049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577432153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092134273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928862254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094424721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980065289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082452724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949928557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974360306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040769207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174314279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517767842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081490758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825227096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859474725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934906328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130462132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039963754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050568724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095914049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178713812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385545039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922407732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092705955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941214605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966103511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044246469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250493473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22665857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348822283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483037808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739537074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926520443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093673905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977110298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056678252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274541265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946553567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991632984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095087233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265495836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707312754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092495227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930773176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960694095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102950833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216825521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928179988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945911301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984303477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043644312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179962445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453233936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557779091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175740352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995914201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401856676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930054523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951862643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003827949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108413681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240916361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129359862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348722871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653903816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4524213786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650989012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172610193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11986783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263314479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383041409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1647678379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271583867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325220077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859673094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623764678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c616ad86f3283d5d7215011d03389000bb6a52925467930f9af2397c1029db9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328685369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191700593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285586688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457086197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1631722061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945084801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923962723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002314771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115013253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330222924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677449203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038554213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044294197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064466866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104155844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236179557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254447553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213311307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283902014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448112491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779100023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489674152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448083362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484992348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568644036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737483646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.17947407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645856343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874403185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4342396125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"d77b4436814e49dbff57b2bffc7c4841405960b76b4a5d24ecfd0dff8847e1cb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711216112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926342716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934118148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962398522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100760612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113541726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149611168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157202055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117165656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193917859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260600396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938679953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952739459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018110635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110231494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307952079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678449201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853812335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082357136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368947225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769342579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662871264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570926418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502793214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445136029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356492376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255063025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401498271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2252844325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957109321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.428898681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619212051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524429419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427643216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335856483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233369795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26284644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486692596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358749249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760108255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4034648197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603196313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485168202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547148912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.378192702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052354299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626779953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466717884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314522028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836744321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134049351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719483849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326877035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415561884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734052951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121446173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645239095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547252846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417763703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296684076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157975216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588915281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483102027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358525763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745612428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40033149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255596553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453993052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321486898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2203385442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038699413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776127603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631178689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450008184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.367132338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"BMY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135288308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679273731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516007502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354434913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219853462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041251444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604405228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477491714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519527108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299344115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127091728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221029355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362806861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498650769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639433437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.388093668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632701785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524063347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393526165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275066776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111802673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255581019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501689523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475837429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245875551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432971239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613888402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325850912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532774616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376015599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4052865195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619940019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539362731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453039038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409681512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349346862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500224624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367177299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697750918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383700547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138868598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527053329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618541471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743359247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3934643752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218520906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32037831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601139998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583723171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598759472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581365479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474676715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401556448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233193914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690304453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877880449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679398466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540647531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402340371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281248882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162462923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284954345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531884031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249993764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484041427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462162951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513711681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404181194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722888679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193484617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408421843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575591216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483279422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393997963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288575587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136231699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641578523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463877293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289935834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3944589863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4248414166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513328011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243726108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370062492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316849152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294145708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613002415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325265523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462699136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434421316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364889601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671686299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540819195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459539157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446684793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341318263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145945121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599472685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503918181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431449175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387170146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597846126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442148229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273821352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129506191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958613899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620878662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528608075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444257808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385222369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301130213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551080629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391790185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519141127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310190797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226958151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617381649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280392015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439421205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578254234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795747355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631949659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475699818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558309266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3799943064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.411781923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603084912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456943142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233674416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217663525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023033027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685345488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271727473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772711843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116213589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961896962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712514195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596663484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384744796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3533806422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374585712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594656668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456553036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336234934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290451416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060349638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652352915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489961948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350763237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189993186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065490201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580544198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490081723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396628044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318345904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220862385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721044027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602854274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542495053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474144424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669671737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225119022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442770888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664802812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887476355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201816983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25257464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371956696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224306302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129187088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031105734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440047151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617461593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719706159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883021468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4133186334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195957384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259864379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324040875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406856333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3541695882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931825977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798660018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600917083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246539621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228410818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629086732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303065355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487564854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446410261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345436165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684927027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343314354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388005935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260745099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039190289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676673573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567510527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429930762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291920309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950054957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660174782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526064763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375721501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3745354695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4081504003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149041469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308168249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235403141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757073371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054237253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644640193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255356871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461319081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376057332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277597248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653723972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506919358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397840098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36986387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021153899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550104709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468194032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371897354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297187576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196656027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290419344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358376707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392367267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344457316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639116414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628749437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502191744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359605801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251831128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21183594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334547971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412493665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681795603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3889626233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015001873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345349061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303479612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692251715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748391033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837147209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618374578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520333022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509566363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697367453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3949452705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691181506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653097221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261463666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558359845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473317662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863177308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065144171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055343353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222757331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0bbebaa2c975f9b4ddee2db64f2630dff8a3978f18e9522d0d9e768fb3b43e9a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387971125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282597338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282597338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282597338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282597338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"0d2f01f665eb2ba1bdc98a0827c9bd6b885bd6b6b6eb3940ca5c14268f350b98","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282603338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0288195805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0288195805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805402989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742299721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764173547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826762773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1584df0b9ab9d6905557af699733fb5f771ec036dd7dadd11decf38a2d157105","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795846191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049830893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466859712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.473056672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4037510853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b821deda9429dbe4a11f4f9e2273482924641c8c5d9f8a5cf140a5cc6b4cf9e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4108114748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395404757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0348992881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0349882956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0348600849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0360001801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789199636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844354242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809071296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825042629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"1ecedf1339eab28c215082edfbdf55116d606bb98da6b07c2d9d1a3f68df2557","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852084887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783087126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783109128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784135214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784165216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2db9a683dc3c509378b6c64f74a9b2fc09c99d93b3e40d505165ae53dcaa91be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785637339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896212066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619958495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.421269148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055788885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2e089db53f54ed4247a51722d1430bc44d33f34c2c831d722ebddeec4eea8846","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439473426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1292079624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294279808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299080209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304680676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"2f97a6b72463ddb3e23653d55c6ba2afcf5e8c6fb4c7c730815e2f6d7bb29173","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314881528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292913831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3821162789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.431533205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040107575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150383288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0314998043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0340000131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0378603354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0426607362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486412355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431807796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459810134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498813391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543817148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"404a8ce920f7ea0dcef124bdcc07f6a03e736c8720ad663860d407db30c781f3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627024096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.031699821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0313797943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0312797859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.031699821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"42bf94fbe729e5a33ade25e1ceb2599f9fc55d2310ee41420f19a06f12076c36","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.033819998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282397321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282397321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282397321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282397321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282397321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944499593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032594948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213990599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738674407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415746939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0347400749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0347650769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0354201316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0361251905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"46287c3a153a1245f7e8dbc19f00f793f66ea318a7862cf69b822577271a3a7d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0369402586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417223568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601020914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134371446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264636322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4694372f99f6236f495badc4707b58d724d5bc40f6e91be8be914c6826359858","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258771833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735971192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793335982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837691685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859101473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764387565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.029939674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0314397993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0342600348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0381603604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"48f47b7008c99ef265cdd5b778d04880fd1ab7464b85d5e4223cd3fc30836331","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433207913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216058414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347459238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423257566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501902638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"4965044a81b3a0df40724eb16d09aaff4ab3afb166af5b6a54dd960f853d847c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506616526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585303602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922841784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101413199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553700963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"53890f771d8cfb8ed330fbef2e3509bf65102455d7b205c2f38ef76e431a8487","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908002545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282399321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282399321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282405322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282415323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"593eaeefbaa4a037bfc14cdc487ba9ffc4f8e10938291cc2814ae5ee269a3751","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282447325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3787770001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4852864931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629619807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5306214783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5b473ffd3b0a98afd2f6e6ecd922cd40881b63c276a75738501290cc10b19566","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290879524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282399321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282399321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282399321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282399321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"5c4848dc44539a8c3a98fc902ffbbffd439ba3955cb1e82f37080efef9f22f9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282405322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282795354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282795354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282795354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0282795354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"615aeb10db32869c4bc5e40fa4abcf1cc40b7eb5a52865a6061167c5e59079b9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0283645425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816839944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819840195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823240479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827040796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838041714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795550167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851154809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067110841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276470321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"6bfe94e960b30db21ced0a03062b489eba64a0936ed204a33cc5caa2447e6a8f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462285836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557868321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638363042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084462289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576491876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"734c95295ab4009bc60b70b548574b22fb3eefb2b0cb571c338e6ea0a6bd728d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542016998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0392204489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0392204489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0398405007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405005558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"75173b97044c7040dafe3f970e74bfb8917e05ebc9aea6c91eb142b7f7186a91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0412606193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797038291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797038291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797038291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799238475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7843183d36133f789733ef2e1552051cf95c63f62e03afade54db9de66c52a16","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801838692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250068117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306072793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314329482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316403655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308731015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788037539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788037539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789637673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789637673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"7e7852258088a24d9da2f4081c522af7f1e85dd101b64810d17665c0cd58b0f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792037873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787287477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787437489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078768751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788637589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"817bb443605c60f25576ddcd80659e2b4e8a7b326071a74dc070058db9bb5873","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792037873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0312197809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0319998461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0327199062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0335999797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"883f4bb1daee85df8423b282ac50ec899721d8366315887b92904aa4f13197ab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0352801199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0352201149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.035700155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0369602602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0380003471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.039580479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111864577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096063258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081262022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092662974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107064176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2340375151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351418073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859093956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261658579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283020805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821140303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785281309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815259812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838885785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"a56500f762052d5f97a2718d354f788efbbd9c1005b7b0544f5843f722e38fc5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809097298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611557794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511613449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4130516619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721999015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ab054d501ea266ed64af76a677b23c28a6691ff9e1cd2797426935f9842ea04c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051943069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287199722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287199722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287205723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287215723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287829775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334283148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349684434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374886538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398888542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"b5e565a0588235f3f9a72a8469039348eac66aa367b6fb76b6c0af1a71d05a40","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435891632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801838692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804838942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808239226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814239727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"bb357ae548b498b5e8d73a4297dacf2c7dc74e9789f69b4af5d593656c96ae33","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825640679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749284304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09085296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049509371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260725006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c115d0f3d9ed99b416c1acac322433a0f63c6f5b82e7622f0828ca76972a48fb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313273394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417295574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389149224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290362976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386252982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260272463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287845776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0288195805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"c5c8db63d8aee4250acd2b86c3986169c7e70342eb3aaba08e6d610ca391c3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0288645843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128208879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284098958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279680589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345734104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308170968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0287595755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0288195805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"caa6ef690f4ec7cfdb7a37427c4cfc99c112ec64cd22c0098af43bc6f647d550","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0288795855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820964309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083559553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854695125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829301005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763043473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0297196557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0299996791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0308797525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0321798611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ccf20622d7b0a338afc1db330d214a4789c9d92f6b36334b52b64e39b02dbde4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0333599596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079223789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795038124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813639677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843042132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"cdce03b5df9aafaeb98d177e2edc315f722ce0ddc6f4ddcc1cac7e73d2e58778","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887045806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792039874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792045874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794288061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797038291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d4e491c66f1ba53f7f4422c8e7bfbff0277cbdc506d10158710ad5551d046358","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805438992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874136223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531341601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06522282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793419483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"d686c629266c383d7353ff4203150104fb408fca1c9c66c20d65921e80da5cb4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927051146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362168971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390462828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871469495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034273088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbcf0bca92e968c391588e3206e6d37bd74db276e9fd73c98835531911c47c88","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809406313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1744845428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4966308403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.467356196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4741775656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"dbdf65cf02f739a66134264ff7d3446374ad8a0202cb62772c5c78bcbd69ddd3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4231925086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354412829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461541773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641308783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791739343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"e5876adf70b842a154d5a404049cdc3c1eead76dda25c7546af5c22c84a729d4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1701665823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416806544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458410017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051581481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603822158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ed656cf1b80dd86e71859fed0e7b431597b7042a2f5e403ea077cc989960517d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724832262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0337199897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0372202819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419406761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047701157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ee4549481de2289f2c7923d1998b6be87e44213e00b767c46478f78091b3e853","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545017248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138862326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4442942705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4282201284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860494073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"f8e3180ab8d161a1e5d000747e28e4893f80d130b080e443f5d1af062db49f8b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4409539916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0319998461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0327199062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.033880003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0361801951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"fccbb1072be1e149157e3eb05962bff41f58a33fdf4cc92f98776876e6579dfa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0399605107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0321798611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0324798861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0330399329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0336799863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"acled","id":"ff4a928c0fc68c73a530dbea40ca40214affebc7b2363825f99f645177e24ec1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0348600849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832125912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163860172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897356508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524815562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397235744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699997557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307677411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797221265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532016163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295826873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126614934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407772553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187154358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1567102587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657845976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.185899704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140329927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008011196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.037700322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574956002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742908497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221425468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279569991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051701491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226310744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227066546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713120595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957925946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972052904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058151332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.16556292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331819388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552984903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055701825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139175198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1892329036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387087557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330724788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.037700322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410103931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997973956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802297065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276582811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968852636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3954684181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756205205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718768538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540678368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868844286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663499177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570199465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199573387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886854729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051701491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208808114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.195918293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162320553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520375852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652026183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231115906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761866241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5616742667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214742885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647025766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803020495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5284905498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326587304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487012405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508408324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141753639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969516084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427594821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1607105927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514538184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746580875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172492179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063202704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500813558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18951575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4970579678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649151168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532016163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877491552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573862281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.470733294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544497976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507014075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872747331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941398716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511833847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047645157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428807546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185084849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1984045778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357823033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274744251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019856895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095266148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463350026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297422015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133585856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627824162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609610329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978966121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5425750346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894138547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472011153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2007223303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730073726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3907444148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213421566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972052904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839788883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4312860272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283675882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010991157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532016163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851897322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4139845991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392891412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328842332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424807212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215812924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320502874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424559306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539816814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447516352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181723642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263795535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763363931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051581481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211883735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129291205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5677445779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551641805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413806293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422380032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647942013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333916062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3918040967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047701157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091921301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708827114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398828848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922993983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051701491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275231565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912192775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519462727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972052904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277326644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1665186019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843057781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220561384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492012823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899544582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517270056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6327500055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315352533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0392004473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657455876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715562492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912047894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067144338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532016163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393585397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1632060477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012056244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4674491172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012056244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502201231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865408274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192071274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075993526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567019085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3799622193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651958112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757321021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5057193992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068944488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.421070884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768034705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348577391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318244526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2044942484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564995962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505780962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567986156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670994756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597874442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541783968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525066067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091946409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661919956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164655758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777770735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197798783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.469236353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249515483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229588654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503264911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867592504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812206547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459858163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127441783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278025299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326128111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129208539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145750901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560985571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836417354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793099879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419405778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332082964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027140998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167069187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478209767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684975101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519591303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292821249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967052486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532983233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067885877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317248715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847042466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3695767023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408799067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996663144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588701734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387087557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378477082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133528815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1971264708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059943737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540816671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486526156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304431894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530824784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742345605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521056133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346939331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890738508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830443265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064415448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332167423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579702277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242841437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576765625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293491721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223618393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535709656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386883381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127357807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188824227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733252679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455064142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227350649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663653925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868275632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079677088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340286396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378532149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648570565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952868083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414359686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810443653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701331603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418626687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845270941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326161558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3739910005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664391203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891699931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095409481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340146228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3452709164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549930102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587126937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557861914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407351684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851030844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475926838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518943861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692975984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847350464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309031846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670716845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797932266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299918842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320262169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617068281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663829464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507787835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969817223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365302929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804705715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373305321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340745295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753333093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304201998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431667261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819714639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928889456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548243206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511558418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351769544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571607964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678806216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297525173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913551572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007662905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817213607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836326352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287074164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877607915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935982463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648835501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859111453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037436311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303344649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736221649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836236049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290513208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881924809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851426329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001038588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997024158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417259516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4041935065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4585009702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5222048525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294296669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019191379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238963056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397211207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309617382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736447577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893775287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033515862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164506713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587128348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207190805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524706504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636329158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894985534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927767404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707410205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943765795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366388101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728399742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888476393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688570374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046366829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267572588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441242154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210911617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802398329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961071528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693381999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694107601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848035982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738587542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716171258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667929809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612803712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668720071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819300472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400974354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937529262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.433535348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4913958961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286666851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1992250577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4270437338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4766889928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5311857183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127954737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364714235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4088002394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4513232392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4725760271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971424707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045327566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087908084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220748599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379934383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946056179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307909501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585116227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.39372289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4253459887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635658882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349689295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049491128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897737904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1668544091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526645859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822201316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018240727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276256827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255461236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122194218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379945141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176748753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025758312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502185535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005386574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882958636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284513114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280171652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897388849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017760271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546119426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463077648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431477761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341743045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641855066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187474473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869733027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480235796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2204762915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261360563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964491431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371631529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036269961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135862323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333226133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061101358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271033014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375974917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945083783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283238431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588282451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984420574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474820582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615541143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462521034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385546054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303453391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087059293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222649269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806515513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312983257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3489613169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086294336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387860708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233068191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251549006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166543286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600125397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626801308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060076489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496058761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884017981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4293144173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076615844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2076752244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1711830017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4833883869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335030281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711033817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3953543648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4360761174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.443584888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4442201297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162272715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249208701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284532134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519155844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839272919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500211371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307136685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962455023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712880658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826210056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670974419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600234826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617413967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133145657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359139442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363571546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249430252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106433602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988811846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628606159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870840876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276021259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164074482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1890010308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134302145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.185397387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617884906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393027567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145301372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287765348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843500748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780511105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523566723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411593379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141919345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274908561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476972139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575327698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361112105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017491087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002694917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454237402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534040499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246502189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276145003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624618329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366568441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262754271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196560662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1962331428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722945745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399646336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212742094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138903765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173328066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541760377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384776931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251843047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134271081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270070279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396210493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065875711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881196329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966670767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355589486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579998582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3991086589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4366869032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4869230414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994784925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225112153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.216559848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937142864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718492507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582587395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582587455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583187925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584189509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587395776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082597628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082645632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083347691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084597795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088154092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082745641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083595712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085545875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090196263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109147845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872044554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966252419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175869921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360885369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648539374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084203762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086595962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094146593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127949415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087546042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103147344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129149515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172153106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307364395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.610290577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441780857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5370636331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612917851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4728359361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587389776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602439032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628191183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664794239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713998347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089148175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104749478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132151766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217220311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240158784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082945657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084745808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091546376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113948246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"202e51ac25a071492b64fb3164f98abd711c6a2a067f5675b2ddf7d50a62a802","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196955177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6815000222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6338678794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5892737128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5193273183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4483197507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083953742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085963909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092396447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082745641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083345691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085145841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089946242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112348112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087548042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103197348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129949582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169752905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237158533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788637589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810239393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856843284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935849881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157068352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087746058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103597382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130549632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170752989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"4915b3770f5c9ac893f684482dfcf6204390beea98faacd43b4dd0393ad93bf2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226957682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012056244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988854307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987854223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103109371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325401755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082945657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083795728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086345941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092546459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117148513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079283794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825240646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881845372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970852803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212072944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082549624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083197678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084947825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089754226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109045837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082795645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083995745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086145925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209279648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2128399453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744768253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6203334877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5905324857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6029131987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4798974766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082795645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083645716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085617881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090844317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112310109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082945657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084745808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091546376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113948246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207156028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079283794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815039794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856843284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935849881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157068352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0321598594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0360001801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436808214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560818568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837041631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084595795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090946325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112598133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195755076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642308867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1596705059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610106178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1691741162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.189924256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254236753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1318784974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1454794468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163890279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869413145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083347691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084953825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089196179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108147762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912047894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856843284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788837606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737833348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738294681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187070857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332082964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5507431584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4980384885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184203642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087062506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232074614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146209382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752118035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160047758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686159742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103015457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950247045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3921776188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4431368727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047142668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072144756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182153941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352168136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687196109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082945657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084745808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091546376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2103747394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139950417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082549624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082603629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083363692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084395778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088346108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082795645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083395695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085145841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090546292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113948246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582787392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583387442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584987575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589787976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612189847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232074614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5787454964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572270008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318723786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c7641bb790c72e9d31722937b6d5078eab2f278277311b95a3c526afeccf6aab","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829306691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787887527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804038875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083284128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876844954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972052904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802238725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083284128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879645188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945850716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067060836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787437489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803638842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833841364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887045806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007055826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1867127638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967135988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182153941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476101126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2cfcce09363ddad01df31559624e330557f69eabcab39ed3734c11a60f153c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4018784206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255474802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688541571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815211087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077387143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4390908729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107147678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367169389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687196109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306722784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592103797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083353691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084963826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089196179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108045753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587587792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592988243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604789229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633991667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"e6b1c55cdc17f3a16b42d70c31cc1d0208c7a877aacdb3e4aa6fae2e358e2fb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687196109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582587375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583187425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584787559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588987909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607189429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007162622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132233267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330724788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312248298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802205712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082745641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082995662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083945741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085945908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209734686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082795645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083443699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085745891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091196346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21133982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087746058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089546209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092546459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102147261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136950167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082747641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083353691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2085213847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089796229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108597799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199942791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398374701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414222428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317893206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274972774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918378073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860065411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741820135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679131896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561156262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603605204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001379795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527959582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490767792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718010059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643519164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881702293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045925685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176941703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351585812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982022729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543284926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400325226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386398406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303445919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711378117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844770879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881656781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827852698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884039311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802920696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718080628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003873469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240521109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425360423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795055545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845014984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28134838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839299961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CBOE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842804301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586172499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496486486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350701639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246089062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214403198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894958781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663901093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101072003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204102755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379640614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829673327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755947587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303296997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182107219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419704538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282684515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884004903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848673551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931301537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148673444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653605829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927671571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553430274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516773327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372541365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265733594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979022231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726736267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296140949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961817306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637695436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654291229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623274125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649113652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276631699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924812902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895360637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837681886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968887341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825840857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278758387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753647835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281746615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755525404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774807272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940416538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887410646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584226237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531319443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409310714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897965983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615966588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122886955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282885964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327409678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969833866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077453043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091534592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271725622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449872682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740202931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724218302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768718358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937522088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297991243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907486998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953652675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681984231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561603538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501945979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747607635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964062964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120887789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249178687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404831851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673331311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566922013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462218737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425968081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389873673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467086489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369972826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341799922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212625039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134786414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904144925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506919002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236436152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301641784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"GPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657008144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905849024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637686559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527034004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433762216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330292261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709718523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866427374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870433339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883263884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897907768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936938569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582844386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408111161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289948825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207121589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945120487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980192039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055186259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206757841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402455961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687285378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641633472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002528769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679332997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702387079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913062706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705864232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833435121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761170159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638024255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955672413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598045661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595628047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589085245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330746151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675338409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656396424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686953437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770935821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894980267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775778353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896138752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840389661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858397755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044593746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650641416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700857239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880927603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777212745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212961802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952813677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060024741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259839437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406722491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544030705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972741516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471753138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206057709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372830751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536098635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260482291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544406036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546369427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450587317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348615562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304069006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017312436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201745254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394706917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379519541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918665884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450867017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333871538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3497353541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154696205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819466459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816439821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961617733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034487174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872453017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857053474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833098302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831011497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922487628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986272021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874207461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258115856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466722504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378236761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265163587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652387958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473128756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407333033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234260062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225252482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868703528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560237844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410157343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288557047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655760378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974345203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041116004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172625769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361986907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3489362492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830522715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610061328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499197207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260742018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166279944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842091144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914446414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828272685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868959493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301117816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860492704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617216395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504133136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392088491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275885543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895352815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657835014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510660196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371964624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270223828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299263308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551505875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533433761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486040368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TRMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263302448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620814454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603564696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117031181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293637699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565725763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587228681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246730259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304184025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457182797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358943266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567187405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415110586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267369028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319468821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363916182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017813078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339027569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458999633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2073900293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039497757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924638168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087462258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448138578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271965106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125132611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919457109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301713498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514410182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383937224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"WTW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372931553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998365802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369245083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231525891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358184305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872159804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284047409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215117376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216784044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278877407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125838073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.169192724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4996848835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1365340415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251594659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"072996d2d8598234693622824f75c240134dae70efc8b611daa19b381a5007b6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977190228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881853882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0947053913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977263928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943730578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904380559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254434062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906381526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267938475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906918676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0b169ca055db4159f29bf981ea529c369b0a0beb9e9ebaadbb507e963094206a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458381792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0c17d606a81026f7b82afbdcb8391a34d20e05118d440c118409734c87ad8084","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352344592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282454482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160211649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3864011988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"0f5c6aef52d92a3ea69734581adeb0dbaa0adc8e69cb889c88696e6b1b04e242","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966798222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323584578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1783460984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166034985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"16b038428ed580bfdd126798a0a0d92e1de156657542ce2986ef7fddef427486","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0208380223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0341713621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"19276061861552ab5b4f6cc0859abc26f83e5bad9ba7063f7f6f5f5f68830cbb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433380332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"1b9cc53522d74386d1fc67fc84003a4c82ee2456ac19faa5743f75c7bc2a2ebb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1397744131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412634138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109105065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186917363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"25b26edef1346e353e49d629f2d9b986d9280077452e25cb173b0125d29f2e19","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4853049132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0233380236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0366713633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458380344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"26a77f0daf907c5f4eff80c4211d5b937ca4b8b6b701c79fefa8ba923c0ccce1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056671373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980050596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940610577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111277326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950380582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"29bc2c5f909f6faa245771dd864c7059d25324ab8997b65b82b09feeca7dfa3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966797256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"2eb2be80da401524c4ebf77fdee650e7f303999a03f1d7a93eda7f6290b72b78","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495811811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797211473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061381118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4292048862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"322deb44a6f705c992536a51cf2fc1688bd5b8f2b825b2df64dc297bb8b09eb2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663701892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558381841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191714514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300130751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050878262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"34b8cdecf5639a1ac7ee91cc4f714064ec379e6455cfd12b8bb02e22248bbda8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4891715818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"38a90f4d27084c64ed365e74d96713193017c7be1a0133b46ef9c58353f91613","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5333382698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333380767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447504895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"3ddd7acdc273d9aee082a214412412ea6acfc4d3b3815d9f391712cd66b896b9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419171548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995928236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3921382016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052611597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"414d81ab4cd6b144d5d7ff8890deff16187131ef70ef561d23235e64a9e3a602","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068584455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4204aec5ff81b3d331f27141b072979d838ed95bcd0de36e887ca9a70523060a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"454929db574a2087112f905213f5ed6f42e966f4f174598d3c7656135a549ed3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552193723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537633716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642984732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522583708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457943677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4328465546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30595016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401381765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669718078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4733382408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"537fe838e624e3a945280a7f7ac3003e593a469790084243a4ccca7da60df456","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586381854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369471524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568035179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717168584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5717d66e2c928eb051a18ed6f061481d3a522f0a4cc96b4339db4313b140f6b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4126852115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646918067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800047659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1358767445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307047421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"5b45afe11fc314e0a565a35fe82c809ec70f87b1c32ed22231317d666e1c344e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488410841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990063934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100570654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037570624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973413926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60cabe14763f5d8760dc7140b049d11b8e23d847d3852b77e8e1d2df2bac0ae1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937380575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112661143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231034533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1590184224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111992733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"60f6289e0d1225ac2b3a945523d2194f3b9cde98a50f7ec2205ab35286673c04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196051183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0134713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0136380189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0141713525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5063519234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225060714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187700696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4929382503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494450844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808261479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462411312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966714406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1633380911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"65c6d5bdebf8d240d9184eeabd6b0492439e4579c397cf243520da1122dfc659","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333380767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0208380223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0341713621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"689b21fb8fa98b2dd5934cb288acbddc829ad6311f73ac7fd22f66d99d53ae9d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433380332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181461659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560528508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3829785305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966714406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"717189ea4297d2bd8c71130f9f4df7f17e710022e01f1af1d6ab7ed0a1af3905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846434348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833464341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803434327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777194314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833464341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"726282f70bce23d66c70376d1165031394e4a1cb010223109f243ff797e9486c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786984319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853011017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184744511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591701374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468451797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"72c5df25b8d0483bc9a8ccdc387b72eeee488c31e508928662bc3a3aaa7d7aec","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240661687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0191713549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0233380236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0366713633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458380344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1867464358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1843594346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830101006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902131041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7c5a93873d2235677aa5541e3524368e507c99f49290774adc81221e569a2a55","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969834407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894680555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920653901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014920613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104281396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"82fd8377d98a89237b105523a25b53958738c56084a0d3f3b701bc06112299f6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888253885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508993702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654783772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645463768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0388900311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"a40b2f955080bc48a3eb5d3ebc8f65cf5e75597b82df9908f326db839f470dfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0397793648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0208380223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0341713621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433380332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b21f8977cc0105a9ad354b08249bbbafdcf101ddd2fdedafc619c74f32f6e13d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096041062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943727278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977260628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973877293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891460587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6358383192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166714019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998793938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889450552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733380477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713385249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26461314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797900991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.463338236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bc472ae027654b674b06a9102f70c8c3b4e896cd5d6e2539eef76be98c12f446","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158381165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980053929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114873994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996850604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007210609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bd4e00026685af18a12993199a1468f8c1989014b1b656c7cd7b3b807fc3b2a3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984713932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133380187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133380187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133380187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133380187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"bf1a7ccdcab6f0def67bd1ce4d17c175ecce7043bf92782ed3e68262b5b33873","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133380187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284211226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4016545395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201034519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905344859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c041a711a5eb71a70a018a2bb24ddaac31dcb70cf4dd50445fbada23176ef0b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293586154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0125713517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0125713517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0125713517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0125713517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"c3285fd0b71b2857988631c7a8ceb54c619acfc09d4be7ff119fd4a947248a2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0125713517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931233906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929010571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991393935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098343986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912993897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433380332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666713778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133383521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133383521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133383521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133383521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dab1860d6eb61e1aef6d693a55cd14f12d30de1784bf4da5129dd9a88bff5ebb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133393521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973410593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993410602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940610577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983380598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db179ab9be5f29fb984145e24be4036d826a4b1242340317f7ef2a20c6c28080","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911660563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"db5802d72b241588205cd334105442c2e449aa8cb2b9919be7a311eb6a4eceb3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961945369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3768585276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1923464385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1542717534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5525049457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958381551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333381249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4710769064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"dee27f2d5ddeb03be31fba49da853e95cf43fdc4e67583a52b27eefe8e7ab4d8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958380586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287120744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392050795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443874153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1553357539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1702214278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"e9c241882801d740d7d774f3bf19c20f380662f705ca2de66c4a1fa1210e257b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0166713537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0191713549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0233380236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0366713633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433380815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366714116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333380767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333380767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"acled","id":"ed016d23bdbad0ed0d781dba30d63644670f26271c5058aaf204a5d934e2a221","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366714116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298409012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141745237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5958382999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898791492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3902192965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505575991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558381358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254938901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4379813431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884851927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124893029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063340978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158381165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555488255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094111963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204192523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558381358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123739798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250123325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555579275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233029498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766714792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191714032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4497916185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158381165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591714707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4767251129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419171548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391715094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2391714611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958380586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4118307002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792041083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670989351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213131991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868232756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151057454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059334587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32169859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466714647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958380586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530036217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.229325773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745071074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462462921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809657551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696942723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933381539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859200567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591714707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340175141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4364587836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833330653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125838073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430375478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591714707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383448668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321145414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933381539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016276752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158452971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295393893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791713838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438339929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419171548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591714707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191714032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345791913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796523794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398035144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351114582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301098981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100047321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425046995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241771781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3533064093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687017187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466714647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672297046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445514719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131163481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069171379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583889396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4666715709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597834006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066713971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3548285553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4343634278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763809751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466714647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998259377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4300735223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997728858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311971845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361355291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4495054633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791714804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966713923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242195708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1607422089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5267733843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069171379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0259713582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4652723088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625195106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125838073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4039775896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438745546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558380392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0159713533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334556898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4626062822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522738762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791713838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0266713585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722054026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4666715709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261105106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866713875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0258713581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023955137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385844138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616149913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191714032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218357776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.221477426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633865632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791714804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2354528168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4445757732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200177594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650102124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029350342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5529228175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235274679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5158382613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4791715769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158381165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091714949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4231022131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039675533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508524198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625047574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291714563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1442280229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166553266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458380827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291714563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158381165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1666714261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270798063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408990277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4071834267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307035884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024658946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4958382517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187144352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338033019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163114454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408864179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891714369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213411369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959424593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644974685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542449244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793340897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1875727923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678822147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891714369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189731157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062962959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833381008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666713778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366715082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151887667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554332337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841465078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088180856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466713681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.463338236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4420921482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3833381973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4091715432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033380622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4730040845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299654093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724819243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899788196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955207741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200048334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454747354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323765151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1701769425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797056101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000047755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466341103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902962457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836689817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739366193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685516345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596938692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014803396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2023032998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120768102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371240637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852048735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331686643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623037761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622207027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568641216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259218939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574465458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382945093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633086796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024667275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322366648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734976434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048747094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1909749759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1650950323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457134523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370590481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418410403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329078339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840646123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162768215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566766653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018358862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715327304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673933031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497318828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986238816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363720757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653571385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944466434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3345054654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757293252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949324488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1762339251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499627493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347989217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161659115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278906051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2202550841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127786858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000437269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900994927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453766399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248130166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222563754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547993455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.378762613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259128827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827020132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310973689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3616996532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972921676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242577798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749404237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955768255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310078474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606604897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935044596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111375812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310750881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200837969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324108541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596606413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279909159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3923091976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4532861724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4197477847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947796087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273837421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590623054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892979995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227087221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039071024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054881636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141789355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195978207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726840933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213265017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507364495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906258538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4409690932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279605312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055911535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179539785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681192197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377484657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849123297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737552596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370748818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128069425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215595384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3817347344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804660648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411318002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057823899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260269382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355524004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504856798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269598741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064834659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796539077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611565816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251843196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043352993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771075278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4539476375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4454834606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686358202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232782916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992641875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4424440761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4821345004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426522661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703695736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024002311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356677179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3945257095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108206473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585131285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877780425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4375968846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4315445956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713967055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687520311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786615313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696369842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092862874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352447149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653241503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4469848919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341073436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137559855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267648943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639498624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417798288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2134071633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197271788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619592978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890150838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146045267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234294752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626893022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034950133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174660906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.343455255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315769154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393988289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26387914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799656867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925648569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575274813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829160058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145858537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855754268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637914469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990586566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172310231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342800223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664720042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.397450346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424909902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407695804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297106682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286886613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262076468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707172132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086747013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451164433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3733399924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4313667901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016243261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204127791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696573472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4072115586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4522635103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307398095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610896627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998177992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328155653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708084716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283823837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109731236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385883725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3874385012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4060763776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448583617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969168705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3400737653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3786701596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4016998161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891449429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278980511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3892344781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4363133032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4614189557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320275443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3772686182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469913574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274167509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4353976576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480180487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401367897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1425229443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126186865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152264316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874856448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167749369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735375126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448073162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267601671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2177742585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108501678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178659296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251548875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442399476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368916952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499859594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348304399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976964084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686820227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877217194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768481188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250750553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476173631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441431736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190810064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214080846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101525002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381696539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909562542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197413301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986932091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661110991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006531243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368481457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696078957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309071633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455009542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062698011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131053951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247967505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431074354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804396221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171106312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487242839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225686096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487087732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894429193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296738648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088734398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318490204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441590063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610819172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1623625615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406297357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434490582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700608126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.415996714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.46390509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1308983397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997225971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135158635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552051066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019526408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1571046305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213354316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206669525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354958454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393205819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540430374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4924664496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5424974232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264190093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199596087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112890134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307540409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311776592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1942422693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534202761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357435761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250579263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101422815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082329858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983523499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057288633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055642131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160007124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439355045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667509769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021994982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125394965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444856618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549596665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077491089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5239099696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4754293503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982641338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217088201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1497772552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1973172676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547564943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126384966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128131633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159714982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376352352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723409233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4166715468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243986978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251658855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458380344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608380417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791713838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100838061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125838073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126384966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128061633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133394969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158411648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325047429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433380815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791714321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000047755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476175106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125394965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125394965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126411632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128131633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133384969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133384969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133464969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133569136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571139925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769995042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958380586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208380706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0141713525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0170380205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0216380227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0279713591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0366713633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141714973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179714991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233381684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306381719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408381768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126464966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128381633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313471497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161381649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055285442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771657803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117256549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4346421233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906749249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491714176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4966715854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4791715769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.463338236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129381634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136381637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146714975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126464966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128381633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159714982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313471497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313471497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136381637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141714973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157714981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159714982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203048336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266715033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d0174469fd625915a26e4fb0dfa92578865bc3c97fdd31ba6a21a0df24c8797","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366715082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129381634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136381637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166714985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791713838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833380525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958380586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184629008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721436022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0159713533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0208380223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466713681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126384966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128061633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133411636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158464981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126394966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128131633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159714982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131048301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141714973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fa89a7d296950fe794a71be32c65e5d50930a8dbe0f9a8c780f27eec1529e60","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157714981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125381632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125381632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125381632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125381632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069171379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875047212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091713983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341714104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829948479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0141713525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0191713549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0275046922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391713645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633380429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129381634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136381637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163714984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126394966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125382465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125384965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125394965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125464965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558380392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6408383217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5958382999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5333382698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4491715625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913866163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123036542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614666714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383121497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869982911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0141713525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0191713549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0275046922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391713645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633380429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4358382227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4208382155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4166715468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541714683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445881422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983380598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100047321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129171408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566714213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925047719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658380441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056671373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558380392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0341713621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666093354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991713935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10018196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1400047465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741714297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166714502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533381346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210107681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0133713521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0159713533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0208380223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0291713597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040838032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128381633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130714968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133381636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158381648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200048334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258465029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333715066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128381633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133714969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159714982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521796936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767270654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123582719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534866157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2011308031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133384969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133394969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133411636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133464969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133544969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125714965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126714966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe34d740b51f076eae014e050aeb93b8ac200f86f1f8b58afdd74e07868db3a5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128381633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493909011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308607599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266570841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286140717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238361631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808495271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489855133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698699645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974066878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191279627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496503496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951980876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965251177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125151219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207136852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867644151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465662708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945565108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128002819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165808659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256685821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483012513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014276683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223942268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316895104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326510388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280173597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208328403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1916605344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"APH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1765656423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458746104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649679083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657618906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723139501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701040031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342439506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856176496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990198649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100071877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240060448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345929247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840434684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901188874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070996254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248805822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564843177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246239139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167055921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495451031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3865911836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929934866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629495645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705554457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812551562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360697692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367946861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225350114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230288215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217164097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145957962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253696099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679631266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573078498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483340505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427270843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252947494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605974801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966580088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122935566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469516867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668890621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967468529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432154866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319983479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404450781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588450244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281129302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452943259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356514611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454995506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850599253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810411398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484268481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019970786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EPAM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802290316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437675849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397622011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273855234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312988952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402274991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775871324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067107458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493324302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747353502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4121709189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274110825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160371861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088008902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108962298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170254758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281089657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046319498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506591914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413520984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410895753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551234214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228029141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243361913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332549719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385281333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842441752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977850582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2980895989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093528438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157426754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251667329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696566048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777504413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282126737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HPQ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208911728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275580628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513673484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496029049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634819234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492969313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480204589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374517399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427796281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338400081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284441603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508601308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489995997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567055913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489854531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473081314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428651864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346076467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939100796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266764597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205334966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494214733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2395205563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375631272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364871412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362029212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276924088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781786077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830871453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651064413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151887149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639293429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524625339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899563424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919284275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144359756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250846233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797092954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288540507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966310614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LNT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147019596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314601507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782704686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819124876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945658022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040388506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646566987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389198612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645840297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556094893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813292328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422602903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833580919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415952516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321399987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235598799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636877718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249641021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461177283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257852693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"MTB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564956915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756866556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981422976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000922253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105631447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258441818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510084831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998470637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123383612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218438669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373869588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243023509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828380387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940762982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089973317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816729515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620600217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275171965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621376064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751004517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135974058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756896138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522751893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565477486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582020496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727724478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392261657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324480481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278869952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293768133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230583466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551329733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452702608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238219962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269816611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216870642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235036588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388272369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359147088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334078945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347771583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900273088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143621887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137392564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352729844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511389601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772901128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992896941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241317453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2360931904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"ROP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477582153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533316071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497370118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552304143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731691177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936200115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438847712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352633447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300182132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246147069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441465759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280796455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362419129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284546192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943727269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269400855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253763068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408065237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251958116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284770185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269803683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394374011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226190189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234722934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155849324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166970866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824438608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902262562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039509635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383536188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"SYY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319118589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404960256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780504715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409332975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512255122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614057186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785102437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843801744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343963614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24028244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489344648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273546353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106923725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590999727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835372498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712426885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788174314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516083364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440043744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368917929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224887975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308002309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211783388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2042117277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041800695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200967167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286577352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229216387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102904723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148613886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204797067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775544962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754266789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889492649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105485717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"VLTO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510999846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988631958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013016114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324468208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346803662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WBA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485397345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284257015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946716038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090035936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210799551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403115717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1907956984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926568169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930981212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1940996311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"07dfb3bb74a3076bd819853f9b48cd43fb37f055c1d2cc529d7cb2b6e976bc2e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937513277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173578613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257435443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571029441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4120377878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"085aa9f35b860cf6846154b37a571c129546a81e327c7a189cc94998f8c55388","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.413781805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0406318125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415543216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431743376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453543592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"0d5c6d37045a7a4307f1d9eb41d5434eb5f1a83b03671247123b906c92c3a179","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484046894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407518147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0410818209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417121482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425227312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"11952c0cffada5f7351c3fa6baa67c1c4ec4fc827ca8c80d645f37f44cd3e680","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441446472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404467126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405767139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040784219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0410242294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"18099b217a418be18d794e3a55e1656853b754b5da1975a54e46f98808adc066","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417742528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405943121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04139432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427393333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044728553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473346788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352451487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529259341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582067864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629940338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"25c3a05384df0a5476d6748d4afab4976ccb1cb76cb92a00da5d530f0a2453ef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505428001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273006512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897847884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226084132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002913924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"267fec89553d2c302abf6e8b6addd6988bac43530611578b7103abf8f13e5fae","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939442192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638474422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655781593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653566571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666961704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3011f3ca5ab20c1b4df3135b234271fda6db030aee606c6c6bf9569c12566b87","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668812722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764640462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777940593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968023474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271598398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278771669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474018586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670560531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556163399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903880735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3cd3bef412eef494d9f3d4dcc6ee405237a0681e4dcb70e2037ae8a10b446860","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059287377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684146874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674470778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672288757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067972983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"3f802ec5fc16d34fde00be717473d482fe678d11997a13c470e1e759e24baeff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694092972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403645098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403645098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404157353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404172104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404889361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7369886033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863121645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051223506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6158274044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"4414efffdcfc85cd65949cc0a0b44d6041bffbe9220919a4b12bf553f903aec2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5788870388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982624828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861848633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760050625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691329945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"46d9b7df736fc8f0a6c0b9f10284c4ec39b34563564c0d6094be32a8ec8959e7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638773425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742840246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057743362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121479993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765709472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"495a07f5b0141a2afe2eaaa29f3dbc7bbc38c0a6bd8e76ea60dc3849de647407","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593038764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411342184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044121148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491491978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561646702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"499050cf90d51025dbb9df6c7fbf23c49be924a378623e60e7b655e66af83caa","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651880645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042501931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437819436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045532261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477527829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"59743be4d8773848a677d155ac7007dbe4cd5340237b093ece625ce1eadf6ce8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508444135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642386711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647502511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623829277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674801782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"5f253a36f526abcc91e59bd66a280504c018faabcb46ff143736bdf11ce7c9f0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651655553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672021754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690124933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725930288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757446599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"63d3cb0218562c4e78d62e55e04db6f4c0dd30e04fe83be87bb273877759668c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080698909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653690468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1756839489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1928808191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489862743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"64515a0525fb014c0569ac6665a6698ceb10ce8cbb88bc3ed109613b1036be04","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592247756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409167153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419066251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436217421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460642662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a67473236e2266010c820e9364ed7c8b1b3b30d08c41bff1c3f897d8eee82bf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495418006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403645098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405020112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040885115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041693123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6a958cca15ebaa05e71f6eafd78e13d86bdf0b23659b7ed78ce3d01970adb72c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432680386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040984316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416468225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429754357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448792545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6c9dcca8afed3670d43f38ea1ef7cfbede16fc5944242189e56953ac59d7bdf5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475785812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653021566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668004714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672157755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067869482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"6e3c40ed55c7b13557d0d2f95b32238436f2f601db168eb3be6347d048709003","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702213053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126733254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202994008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279414765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370826669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"700a3c8b31ede5baecac6002b8ff9a79f689708b0e3cad952fd323e08c7870f9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487527824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441206261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315665019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557373306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525119092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630964139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416123232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433247401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460846674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494452037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"76a74bb21711fa0ff3b0d46d2c7754927810280e6d4b794588303e61129b3c30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547934616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04745448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511648167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554264589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604081082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7916ce32b62bb4854c28f2f04238b9aba973832cce9256dcd1892b28d20ba35e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665451689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675420788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705721088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756346589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820625225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"7e748917059573511cc91af8da493df9980e0011961468515eae520c29626c78","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913256141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402120083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403620098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407948141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415028211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431244371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827331187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4737800987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4656688185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4101053686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"881adb90c14ca001a2fd948d0e8df0a2db0cd228a165d81e1a56b97de65b6b67","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801949831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644639274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791126828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5333389881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087658763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4247884139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1928257185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1968357582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095957845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751216329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"940e88d2863b08fef33593f03434918a91e63f56b09844ad87e21e34879e19f1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482471565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407118133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0406718129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409343155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04139432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"9444c2fa89c1c39a3c986a5835e7b3fc67294b2f1fdcbcd195d1c177db308040","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420352264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0401045323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402023332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404956471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0410250654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"962a548a44f3c489b4fa0be291849a53e79b263882e982cd181050c116a40c33","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419518255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4504057674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4301080666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4030233986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585222686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"96e5b654a67f7c33ff69d4ea01f2ae51b5d3e54dd75e884149666f3370e449be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667339499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04038191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411822179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425659316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444107499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"972c722f84801889a79da76d8bf6128196f25393fb6cc62d3244712569372bd6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468746743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419718257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433843397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455521612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483026884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"98f6110cfbc4f72a90304ece74ed2a8bfe6c1d4dc199eae34efc27e8f9c930a3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520368253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437943438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462543681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506608117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549976546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597233014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1590109839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905631961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4833360933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1952533425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"a9cd13e76f65efaecf94ef9d0a245ee2ebaf32533229f3bfbd0ff3466509e98f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2082533712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411145173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441145469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049172697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056243267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653479571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437967438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451778575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047250078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502440076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547918526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440418462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465021706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510027151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554043587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625468293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817657195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914038149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094348933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5964776129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1483cbc3653995ed0ef1e87236e31e15e50c1d36184cc931e3da3464a7f9cbd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152859223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408145143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420120261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044222648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470231757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c1815663b5427dd027aac7f5cc1ae23d11b700bf596e9500c6cd834c21423b24","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511753168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520668256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552968576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557643622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579343837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c513d49a1eb02d16f2d3c6fe29d7a4d392240b02704b81382bd942c589620752","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608344124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744671473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081001712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823675255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1409415051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6ae95b390b51644d30a7a4a089b6a8f92a53fbf2bd1726e77c43365d6f0ebb5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920441212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003411825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918162981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547254311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792609739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014646936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041191818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421818278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445546513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473326788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"c73f49b142df1c99713d0e6d585dc74d9243f57a234f768b09cd8faf2c807e1c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511443165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428742347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042099227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0425442314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442567483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"cce7e997c9730ae040bf13bd97aa1e5f54ac13e4c5ba183812e7fef149b03335","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470617761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417118232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.041791824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421846278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428726347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d0282c2bfdc55698d49c300febe489d0d84378f6410e8b95e072286fd4ee9a39","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442667484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417217233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431842377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453817595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479817852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d2fd7076d508b0892c62ae491a016c31d15553d9af3e9da5e45e2b7c13a866ac","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519243242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408244144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416444225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430271362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450227559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481471868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696776999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688112913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720821237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816221181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"dcf4c26235ad98ef014c5180b45ab0396a58a325003127d8a0c2bd1cb22fdd6d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089594297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846590273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822974935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040204189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751989337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e487c129147954c97df847e0f83678a5459f94fcb7416403bd9a2cdb23922e26","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1978776685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998731778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351267267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773176546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275637638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"e80e2885f72b6e23cde12bc0f586708fa968a853b3ff69f6f7bb11c671113c7b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787140684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448042538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480391858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534018388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474467799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f3ab570eb7a356d8d677264640094b1cda6aff7313a217ff4beeb9b8aa0f6545","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493017983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462218698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480018874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508522186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541627564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558243888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411243174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0422843288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443321491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0469651751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f7c50a64ac0e5c1fe250d1ff9df9fda3754b73c141f34e17a2133dcf2c80f927","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503768089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714389173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777956802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7449907825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783844861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"acled","id":"f8c4630bd0774438cad39062456985c15faf696b3d7093049663634dba2b120e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817521194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746176376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695858177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557022616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462943935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279385495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076705253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1850367608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654219578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530645355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334671103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235158408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983408781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737820405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151644291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998390259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036063409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737920406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583619879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383046581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660648884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129882274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077572703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613520176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813440945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288073655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871228047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1247927453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773446768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897603386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215894795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4758908362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778220805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613920179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259263876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442095588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640603842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738120408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581519858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149844274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295764735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170693281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727921307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581044854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249245257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076701042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740921337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655819594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530721356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739340211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306815034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2235869641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770945733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613621176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133044107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088871206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836231481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734021368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583119884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090504246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647168262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241546009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868321697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686120894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691894062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949668487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5769373705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077062173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613520185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312032878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370825028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780420827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618420224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714139962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133669338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210205589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735420381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583420127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23744366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876902152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075816581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723220261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580744851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240545171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814630745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828415578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721320242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580420848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131836542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524018564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052367393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182849809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993024941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355894551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711392181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878969586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725720285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058062085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856941375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723607715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288974973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871413028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686020903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900541807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340348634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678795132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767822702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613444184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329053985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531506531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1596037815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772920753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061402018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056426818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250550657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481099234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765920683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613171172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833742151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31735325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064678679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772559798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613645176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940242199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441109743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759440156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727846306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581120865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3598231697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796511851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1613554518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657820624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053111936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373008264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323917467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356546109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653220578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530221351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172583474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532330662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652878745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735720384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583543879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754513591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127061362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136620094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728021308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553819584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053683797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301512673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210063375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083532137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655720593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28089409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118712941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735820385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583544879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250018605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354986076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718658204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723021259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058064685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192044691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417406843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153784042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730822336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058264587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769586524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358304856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960641073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725521283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580945863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3478147522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597804165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1489306089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765421678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583243886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3870551405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929549026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5805302903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726020288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553319579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632225939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3711049827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280145563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795150659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4055779442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970844938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687929493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925957219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501747756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680749527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740373365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3896944811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4257855238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4389856544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4396729414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903077719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572029222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000152688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4368556333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3500628997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087633762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3802650734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.493816197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5246566022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875088336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290825854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4316476918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5148064047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207844848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291536102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729030214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987242665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3751099229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518358416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4834460944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177388709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3841765436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481547556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334288012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097619147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536893935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870221715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616144201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652335419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4462109321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5531735988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822721245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628519324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077633663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201165773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136993238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932588058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955722561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680244835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605638888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353902367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739849689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885121863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656319599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4730159912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035543143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6085273321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7886092142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691463671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912705052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3892622309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816090524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4006652752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5359196752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404474156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445155052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301559806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827588696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576206683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275269862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385867022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747965369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325359688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898617999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4541000175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262922495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547964442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306857472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510831932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217419604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241920361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25953843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060867703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516903107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.212208173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618434859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224294024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093286208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288416344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294643781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864829331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003675536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170469377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326885776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607303621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536653537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709597339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097108374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614978544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40683572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829803106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015512256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328752404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672251972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270981384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2486799538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821041685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225970121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715370817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4196200941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764210391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094834447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341836536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599358041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014470558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040485877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1728006924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477160512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133580973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248722464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836070163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243533847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557002578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3814176388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.421924294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4076235103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171697017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406339445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188279025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034202122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505632411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191577908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126524559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396999226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398760709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075938168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256994366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492329908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671025743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199907328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763234162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298753386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005591615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942792097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304859968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899209671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846258555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782175277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744400767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735527462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820389784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058668269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343875087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634469871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3976540742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293250407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815830402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322598215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541332243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358890669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407923413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1690617911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225062603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955211646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617884441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011633825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185495025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416304553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364757168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160544249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369353817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935016819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084347016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145549022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190094746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802573197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710946652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105309226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885196489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053573986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717333736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276791284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448375299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706658004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323414342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571403851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756304969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283674572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941849563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265715006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483768873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124903054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326390543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28578723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784464153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088631758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854912642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351004045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138221166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495863459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767571177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949373541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169543068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502867126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842848392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013283013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1694107687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412498839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122624205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125750077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634807792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862622243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115336201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312947795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600676171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445209972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1661543883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029779195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562615317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467228561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4259825084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4313669668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4347002961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4415914145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1995104169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439640715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244806479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077242932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862251201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345560729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380780026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301399707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233150065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315722019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535110907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763106256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3984274538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.18145068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102868904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220834798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356703582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548378895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473959704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023289088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754123036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1944011897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.147885878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022442276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290496921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680507438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604924132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722098591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563562544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610294668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626838712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3509211703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796935579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762939179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281984596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882718858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934510338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950892445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532961729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783282552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876276302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626208468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370231451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271226361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470325081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224691636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020593115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1742203636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830501746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058471327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331445031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762360505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297267298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758975746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570860981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476797291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3720114469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4017907753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578817649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157850991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005224077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869393223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667004046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741310536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845418119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855180184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221707425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506225363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296899694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639082901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895032444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1513477235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172327376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955116286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222880752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615340013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252052855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616274619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769366467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876777957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085480777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765025602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311258331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4016938831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4411580029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054084365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299512903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231004826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350979497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530022912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338842019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726112586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3446445891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592284779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622878033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747715723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4260177094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.489533266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419745184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290514743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727235192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826216205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284775015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049939609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799087686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380221099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424170376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561956989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795169858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039826572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923736991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591926531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302877175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169867685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2004028644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712792882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524298793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355492902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185061044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983383946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059901408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210152219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371817827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508579591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453116664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338816117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759593388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975741265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193279751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750176769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080703642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746273431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424837965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278090346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074452138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801990269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268355973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266116491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003386114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1830954558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131132709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342927403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398127979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483629035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1610834044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310554073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1323957205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134463541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1375489715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428977245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311728094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326631272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350752721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387756837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455056503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313551102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351851481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419327149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526028205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1720030125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882746839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971922722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103924028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306460252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759285834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303128249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311654084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344935413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434153296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637855312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475627706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486927818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1626129196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891370996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250010194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310878076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324628212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1346756431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381436774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"27de3022128eaef18b823e16c7d1ca4d670abb8f82815882d8789a53ba8561b0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450356456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311229079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342529389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1396838927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477254722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597003907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303528003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311828085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344834412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434145296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639979333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1667529605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1669129621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738930312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1885556763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"3ff636ffa947b8f0f3adb55964cd75294716abea2c27933ad89d7abff42d633e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162223076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305502023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313677104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347755441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443152385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1667229602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131335211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348130455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417252139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535428308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175083047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516643577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685151134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096370389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254972533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6401752613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310953077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342353387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395834917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475377704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1599028927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535428298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6776080157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5836070855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4654559164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530722676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310829085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341329387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393259901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468061671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568853879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1143219187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313318502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157283252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1987077452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401413375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131132808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342434388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1397276931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481427764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1625729192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131125209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342552399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395730926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473536726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587754066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914422153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5974072221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5044063018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.419645463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294045701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303128999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311532082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134465641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434653301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.163873332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881418676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7147038146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6110035548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5167348935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4157128081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993647937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164373626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429327248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792855845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6092973398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313827105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354230505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441352367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657829509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285135717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301127979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301930987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130525202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315127118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348430448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131125308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134262839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1396031919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474553696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1589129829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718920218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791520937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011223111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254025513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700129928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1561254554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1592557863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646879401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1727430198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1857331483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310929076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131232909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347735441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1415878115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543032373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303152999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307653044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316967136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338688351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1377360734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972959503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933701568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070841408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641908878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877126433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301628984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303729005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131023807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327664242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384476804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1560555547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1591466853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644598378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721756142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836160274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325253218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1365777619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435454309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541933362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171546008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300929977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302035988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306581033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319864165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370185663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563018675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713420164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6795080345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5895471443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4753560143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909922108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998322983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6564978068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5935495787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5213764697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131125308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342553389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1396931927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477640726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597878916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120548414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15039179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206985178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2064583977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089070102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474267797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582118864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877121784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321126177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1988932786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698545017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07676207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983522837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216125138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162452918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437517434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059281897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972622729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406127018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1845131363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029923296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110412403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207425052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338226347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554518327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2388136736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535438194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846041267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250445269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770861227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449717554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545118498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745220478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095123941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614029076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754230463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724830172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741630338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828331196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068734468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848121497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911022119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099902299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113824126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253225505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.170400867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6277511503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270935576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795940772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651049233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327752243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384430804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481852768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619229127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872631635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1563729578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1602532962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674554675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790555823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982532722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303077999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310889076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343395398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430344258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629104225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737631299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747644294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013558029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238599256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f1a686347066a696609d38ed5b7aa593625685f86fa80c507a8c996aa39a97f1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704320864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234226317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337851343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148202777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678629715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217330392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796044615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325359882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527777785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857744644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4275254921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817486641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702334709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606296123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597143555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264415005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251376667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3616008473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.385501277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131503465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367663184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654249297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3968745756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252880518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378500076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3797025989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024767561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4344306921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720477154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593132734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371727201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257447786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2096947015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042737651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579786826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522143487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3799134808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412809241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713847224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537136585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236474426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183446634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2005266913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30686453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265964527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551585114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904293411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CDW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4352692009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800135765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570259844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325903761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092072497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872668713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287229868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450435838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3670940157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898721217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4212707807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309386687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262183774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459240969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730406569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070114547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651501674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483556806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381317693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289971428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117046544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264053918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488716407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656676618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3933676497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CPRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4282447684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065039355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201387482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515397802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401613438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258232308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645617503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523453086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312150196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210666266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193966129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043613346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684802014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261129202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465649849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.232120631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706402708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669410028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655471354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658362996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050856327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324884281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368532634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3844671256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990017333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625349917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339088935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431289832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644835797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.220710574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820399395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562623647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602095037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2053595008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792698155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198884781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368451561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554962285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3812999359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106571452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590159548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230601071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492375941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483115447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295474469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462642464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470515634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404886987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402903484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DVA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253135893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093396039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301889667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3581588953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384509292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957641441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815877477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595355892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463156199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3700820003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054240325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302689077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162404847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503876915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234319966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145684722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152288422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388522228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245041647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986211987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309385712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480833277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707697216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3978538743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4367794142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967671364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687614027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637501412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"FOX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259893785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254720195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629891256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691360581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701857527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214597641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573902987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411000435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631631808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702204396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"GRMN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206781263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266206264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248919031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262458567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098781141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071064257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173244614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577556599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532037247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343583731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164344444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245743624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249058343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024888509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847194935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933578795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184311562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477097231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219343799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851486356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606134061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334731045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086622297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"INTC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1881270265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727173736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666171283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236793973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333887384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35874239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061247641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230119266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471560126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233736924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4103455583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018090124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565567314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343835622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.213750202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1949627198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715065799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575507823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467700888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364961786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234519484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152001858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412816705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212968736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051819807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4394917952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032604346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244932351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473128139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730356308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028648838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502931529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481789881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483478391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497852793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502592546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651957656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720052779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870336136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110024119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MRNA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999472646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682610073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511716637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233353778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152362877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975070182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.381068948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4063162209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4322386354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4597863279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4962941631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709718872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536029683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343443812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190639703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035406999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036383675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665394293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251107574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425438933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PSX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322356657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968454163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312769198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540809246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241776695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259915932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066920046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564861822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386752762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194707373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013870779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835314951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727247427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539070514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634367869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"QRVO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080448142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754439076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318283887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355755093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127051317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4267853561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098711709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313406152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573861827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843541661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4190206702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024377057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630022406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242344401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297830888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098862788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3679581805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602852509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595956833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758289866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4006780799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322335817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368963622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3857437049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4213420863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"SYK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4686826843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268930205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261145077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441842436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283174486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115617338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681815664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599933714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605482036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356241852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"UBER","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344083273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013237655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965952334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953638905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927601408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"VZ","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888779146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316702989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287203542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575258936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881052705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4250888258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439249224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473138919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530485431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0388a8962c51d5923e46e862e11b2c4e1c91120cb822172cbe1ee6948fe8077a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610948491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4932115214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4629423758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4753527177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"076252bac7b43dd18ee7db10dd99f0b47fde0b2eb4b1c98232ddbb1fde757884","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034462874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955059234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955322562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052751996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"0f07891857f427648e4e6633f88c8555a21c820bbe2df81a707f2ee658a3f944","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950543756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.042827608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429177175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431608245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"1130449a96eba1a771560509bd1fb23e71b93bb4bd0b4d0af37a426da91ffd0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435072629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07059102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705953566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705993799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"192c0715666e1585e6b2b3ea30c4af0c2fdd4225b995897dc89703cf0b3f3d20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706466846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447109089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447112422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448673506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450125704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439142559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439706994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440492536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441520296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181977564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495717719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968465684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"35e89bafa203b77fa24b0530842e6d6eee5ecbbdc02d3e79df14f5c3db54b4ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997952954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382074668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4119266985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4206709924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"3ecc72dacee2a2b4ca03ab7bd3bf40fb8403a55d7ac30905f99104bdecdd562e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4265042253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430831602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431413848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432248334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"425295e683656375e3fafef64e549bd04dee2cabd5afe5ebb055b1e86c6e2546","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433387381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.518858191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5111365461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5077340492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"446f843e39d849a37dd2f59e3ce1ec612709bfd7cfaaa7762e4db8da8e42cb7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4931790775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437279836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457851141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539193637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"49803a43a0e323040582abdc3009ef783278ed9370aebeb8abad206110df1e4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4161599589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439248124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439248124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043926038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043926038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793978673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914114383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256956259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"51f89029c887797ea0c28703d519a0d772a2d1602ba6d43e02df7fc5032cdcf9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113823608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430913834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043149608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432664004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"535a16d7079e064f16984e5ab8912262a7566f7a973d5d644b9df81b411381b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433713297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442914717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0443470263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444945793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445963553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653078877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727130935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750629419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"54592d021e4c47b32cef8f3f0cfe99389ab285c0e3cdcd761589aa8b9746208d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065333665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699243637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758923721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731687523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5881418e834b9c3b029ca2eecc88a10d4b9a873aa2e3f43207ad11a7ad5cffc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076806023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043166491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433442658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0435557066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043989588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438719233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439287001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044231806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"598c7e24ae08d3f0ac0ac4ebec715643c65f3cd114018860361c92ac2515a7cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460774409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694974822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072814314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743062883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07524205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929176924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4092960771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4370068223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"60235dea3e58753b071b01083e32ef495124a139a870fe41bdc19ea6f0dc954a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207251011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983572087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983572087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983710974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"63dec05c3692efa4131528ffa5f670c06a033ca49d449ddd485a88772f0663eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983711007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984572059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984016513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984043179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983865404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433470457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432248523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432556328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"6f626eb1eab4e34d6061a384d9f7862af9708bba47e7430c11f1f04c33b4cbea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433369425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711047879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434912632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.04368026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"84e8a33553bca96a7d38ce48abb191d8dbbfbb87c8a0d69b55ab1247bfa2a828","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439247002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708133484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708133484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708133484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"896f6a521a1cd845180d2a5d957efea9ec169f6b3ddcffff8955c649159e7e96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708136818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780641966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491008896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1485095665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"89e5083c8ee7303d24a63bd25fe5ee8e4bb04f874d23072979a737436f2b0947","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464240468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447522978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504645328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721325479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8ac832074fa141c02de481956bf1d26b7317bce6f4063da42e3f0f2cee3d3ef2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705659082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428248303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428816071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430608262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0433624877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711021212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712255636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714206713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"8f241f64a166d7972b06fa09c6dd04cea5162a8ec1db4b5c8610c1354958a098","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715918906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862438606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884296007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861727507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9101f21194ebeb198969cb5ed205b28e84da8007453817b4bbb6bd4268da3431","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234415536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716160013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718838856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724380982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"92d16801fd9e1a5ae9572c79cfc9a6c7b3cdc6407ad25c95fe324e682825f776","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734105537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241157653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126311283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264372809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261019533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352465177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205413698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012486586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9d7e66fd0fa8d02b91ba55f5f2917802d1d8e521a7eec2a773d816d196d632f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197196395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447997963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483667348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545449618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063224368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4656884396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158140745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1973970582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"9e91997d235cb3828f5ef0c0d32632929cfe5f9c8861c287eb0e5de5857a7443","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789289317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021138096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016965946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045902114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088209164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436897043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437831471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439118115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a1903c1a07479a8c52b1c9f52b03a59762179b9d88dacab3df7901d1d41c1516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449157943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428554975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429114121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430787148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a3e5164333e7fb0285a70c86caf5ca32175f03e08707256e5acdecefc6f66dad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0432589339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477219682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484775107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049600047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"a770921e12578eb8ea7e703a0f1ab513e4807f113d4b94f1037beb1b99e82330","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513894606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714024494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445256899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460941073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"aa2a35a39dd50a7e459b477a32c9fd9cfd897901c9431d8492af6f6084cfdcf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478455216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710964547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712296746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714131159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716518896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091506899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047534871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090795238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"bafb5f387bd9eb8d558e2f34ded05172c69fb2d41ac3b189b62199c9f0042d5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796084755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497553776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561326012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554921677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"c53896700f630837efea6a99bd40c9581d32e4b9a8835fe55e6d95234a0e8bf6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050790582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767352465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791658713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847029982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cbad8021385851407236d46b1fafe5e78966cb0c5035f52d969e24de1ebf8d68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890840339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114550384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262944496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324117099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243780945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485579538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498718201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518801188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552717271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713353394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757512634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738681847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781973324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113639837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173896577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340563708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e323255417b051f6086cc3afd73811b5df5a18073dacc8845911e4868edb5978","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1988998101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428110816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428666362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429445549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430447531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457830015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465056558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462992149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ea6df93328c2ac025c2e85e6e8e7f3ffbe287a69b267a91e394a3825f60963e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465357664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0436135945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440163653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447745745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458441116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771734627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934620711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161061258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f0c322e138695ed94003cb146aa9fcad652b884dd25f71c442cd5510307997c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369168786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447219087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466579865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495440479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f12443caeb59f949548292c51ad75701260e0d93c4b76b003cfa44d5aa594a0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530106549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428054984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428058317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428063872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f173608b7721fd8094e681ece6cae5d3a51043a55f317775d2830975f4898ef1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428108316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717021109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717727764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718714413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719949948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444249138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450693472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463504362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484571777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0437441478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447774633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464441013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487885054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044155474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445780223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454917843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fa23cf1ab8ae4be34faeccb0c0453b19974158a7a1cb10657339b11a869ce089","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465673214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5874458991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4470976486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4059379127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"acled","id":"fd391776f0c81914a2aedd5a5e06b3fa5f74c5769a82bcfbeb3b606c9117abf1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388636229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511491952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957193285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619328346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530606552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390576998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231320145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622439404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437559958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191322085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088910038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806101809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113509661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389496778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608578531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052766438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153809657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046208776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619243903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528443244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798591734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735876153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627438207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532218735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760838614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106190503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516551227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455774495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754028469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085843423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611328484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528218804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657923828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769102504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513579056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045533117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280180814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033721906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488218381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442552501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627461083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755213785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475440823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0438582569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026935983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849656604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488662818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0441580295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732835458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111874312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896878013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808323982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190095187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530634318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226579639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049542052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662104277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541467465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055928657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102343139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677465135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538579737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070050347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977432182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661770949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05413308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068892917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805212924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477997446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043877591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927840725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227427878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055320841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008349427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065434387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096521017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621912746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530666551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1588661648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022431407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885685983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805557374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767939872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813768333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609661846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527579937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1683988181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040098881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885879369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805574051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106987483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133108268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052876439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007987222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.16989882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855100954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488775038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585736334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709547904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486330636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439608385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827513755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133096169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888657043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805659594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1959364925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791768711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480665178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0439219514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265401103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103309789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620882775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530689883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094294345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009209412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621911635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530996534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855811149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098176544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614550651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497552676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282063744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140651594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894990268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808101775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568600893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636882489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480109632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043877481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1941161588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285760207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884322674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805658472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1818133988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849435496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617106451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530328801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193353499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104698654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652659995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538661957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382835218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038379488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810716741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987311572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560064538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403466881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4578814629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4974918921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4663724961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.458208824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5738572442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6146815414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051152577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032841243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666163674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227393449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084846697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3952275705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4344596439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4456262294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130894617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3654104773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149505901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519943968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.53540325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775922255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3391612844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416279086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331621981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5395254115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4906475655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4991474192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4317098257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6781907537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931655192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875322828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313551934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6691534802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938371328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816434953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4604308852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5921154215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228438086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132611577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018474374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278315891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095543256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926262679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4358577162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228713033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901959901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281296068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920823564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045272563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298618336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138745448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233449246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062575261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950152862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852173915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794147351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869690936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831015665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802835877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904578139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202111816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4356426621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695248744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910511519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547682309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38960888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604344689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793268212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828164968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254664501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851507287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298683784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622790284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961899495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539970173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4076685771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330142164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576739853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990135684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626782139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850533759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787363276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033839496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307301623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589699868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677750108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078006021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137315109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659673595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342061412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690725609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963709178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748855901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565319838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504066457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334244409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140691825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604797491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513268854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781579447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128122394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2063840632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346486642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264983122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058004231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145604708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598194471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720861549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919670202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101666332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26685377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636468342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433612174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3778901148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4035966467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862556437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113416912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269072027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482007575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560255409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369663938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753103101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992235906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241377547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506157821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862765796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054666964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989388636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982119893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834546609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252595173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684174173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2187419042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077661159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215223329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780192785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654314865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934337281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194832087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538935864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274380188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738841945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767744715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824077759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914536966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261218527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808403042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091247223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198805516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435226617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679054556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283827853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726545253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659009872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624225427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32464963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702314665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821584695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864244473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809023472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805931983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726700785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411991795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137700439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1820523953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568303458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725847993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829980543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003131955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238391924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1633231427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1607604822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.188119487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021178839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246064081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272199961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903485545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066906158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1768400429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507449487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1375747096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533668902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612648062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659256691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705431889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746059703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091757042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1396131166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162061739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006298061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4046593639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4498004717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4281321454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005528782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900752866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3797988175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311199854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30681928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097327271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132432901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669104799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838755693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239567873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198158675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130122872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335773461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805296026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029736902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980912768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112801189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055103842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101575572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989889542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111964656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089323639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102974573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097741444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4574503557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.399929582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889399233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357361878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3820418508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455874937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261719001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3686641639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2109422272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158355807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410031303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148463301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082885303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931808164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751199107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097548103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989241214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757840166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573835695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845143127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226191805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295853341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986965649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751476067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.149688949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664820555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913924296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33871544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3832217784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331037592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301901362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629620332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308162061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097818271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864613614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362395012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540561135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806994946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870998982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533565993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2595868519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296754735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384759077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3973455021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089558187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159859147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277148254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353705792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25714207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862683161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877246963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797920098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027534828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062199741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185772799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3647814133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493125889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490568246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482129981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455878357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744842624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431584519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493793228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568055459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057492994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.499114786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738168385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998651453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402951136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289423625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3595779752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821282355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433838075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387885302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4455083312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327569674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281619874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487813722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358872812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144393501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6567394416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419550606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456809224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.595151224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536314969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911035412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126826585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840325887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719966636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448018489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816143521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243472847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950864851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572949914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4167488513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4543235663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5135014071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443533699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328593586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779119385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430711306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529024712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609360929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470718919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2298724513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377712871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445551051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686755454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800465485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079722208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308725957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371633911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366320883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326579038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876714775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971406895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266819184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3611516338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097467961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321007188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236884403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275264848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425214929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627093992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428037758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428934409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431619919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439280898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456290605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427872205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427875539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142894552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430351052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436150952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428618859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431841026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447922971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508895255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692753201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8262971613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825554871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.718518763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6343328809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5301770324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429035519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430896598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437313154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145175735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498645431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434109313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452890101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487458394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540550814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7815092251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428011103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428569982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430689946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435703193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447206361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428342197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429317736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432674345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439979775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458423902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440052544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045788557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482329594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525662181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687103846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428232199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429207738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432234352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439878665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457896133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07158639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599837194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118211468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896560314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959544268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471940884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466000986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046746985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468691217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486440645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428342197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429317736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432674345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440868648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467979293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432091022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441757522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464090471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508089713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604532497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773690134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808141763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085432319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0927321933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6698222588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428095535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428657747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430947708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143615984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447961859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428258865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429703285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1435036526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145056737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480673519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428674414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433007672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445201907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469868149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1525422748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897734683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065928467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297338149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1691557727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066300552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428093724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428988597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431705084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438063963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453262835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547217366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670993013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911655536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263316149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4988363134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431802686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444663575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473024198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522773342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065465996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431008818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433203225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437984253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451434022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483895685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428368863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429007741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432118799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438757573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455757281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428148867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429121073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431871025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143953756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7accf0926f9385302631d5c0816e9142e0e71f42d8520770e6b51877bee84938","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464872679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444785247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1492089989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664531465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6627557138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"7ee3e51cece25f65f1f145a1ac60fe3c4ceb0931b8b96831e389d3cbcc7841f8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4738700766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481944521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849386147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916065475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3664941472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4418150728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428675525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431981023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447869639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493316634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1588542773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557217193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635993615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071988106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823337423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6842343362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428175533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429147739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432039911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439007569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453979534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771324619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857323138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065541776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434757642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.191874931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718797745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742769555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788435435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905988967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277204799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876322811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961988003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093763512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.127287154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617500819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431452144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443090832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470757023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1595754871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184397282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052430891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197095067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123964989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297537782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379123844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717419443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.17857516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206163574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363244916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065206786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428232199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429537732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432763232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441879742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1460678307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428648859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430763267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441105311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484923445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617532274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915655467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932210738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10428755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245760896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572743211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438758685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1460758306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531090428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1718312761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaecf17eba0528130dfd71f71621796694d7bfa83e3deaa049f579deb69e72b8","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227327332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427897772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428591093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431536631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1442453343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14797902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990876395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012987125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070875018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164984509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466201545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428785523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143200769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1445674121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475645827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554977795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986122412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206032406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304867183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5561319089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4676473985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219455017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6700881685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039969446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256329377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739957396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341869645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480752855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5108808172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5095255972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830277644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428175533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14294844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433128781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144866407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d29cfe6522b9f89ae964739bd2fb256f33d5eced5b84359cc9600dfca4c02c8a","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535339244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559102817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834446328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1675439301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058745165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4063379058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149634225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518405654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856733163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113395412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457544373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431091039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433868769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440757539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455423953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496201029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7208887558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.663284554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056524716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390963404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938287315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811528934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6134343407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5291802355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4437150401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582831775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428235532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429147739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431786582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438925348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453317323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914178558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885631479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921664384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052095224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AAL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060913767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518453296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543712944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3776279207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.398464081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285233385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488442058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714405431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3923965347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.409493039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4345879657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695862146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689392021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763793909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"APA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277487329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547306517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402165398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470827169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3580615816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.376448541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753907024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260402865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484166397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372480885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4071409308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742884889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304868901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529324485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770426971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498592874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555659628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582575755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680255984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3821418307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952781118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273784198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321379775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502546265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290217341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842164331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279397949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601775727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246671259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900498886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130976975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378327403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411440049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CPAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265350247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397883573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426400247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312672321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199265645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046360459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900024277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906535397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091508334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209904534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"CZR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784154357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588312737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520088216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452851294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2348743877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DAY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226169335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680933343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525274419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769965208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075636676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4334068722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757311496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762188935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726150529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641441983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DGX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540723021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659277036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340182753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3640784136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871232272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021317609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702750702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264354679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543324715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249052841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239527426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907093194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301723181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316588217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317827721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731049152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287822693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604448695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582780737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2501438146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775841985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186565236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389388345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655321486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.394532265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609718884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336889325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408092873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.347080196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788375357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735827016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582553145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251128575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560035243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427852424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361164881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"GM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214773692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713767738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274714677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500976069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385022874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"HOLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269505656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781994482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173771414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356938256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454685523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27087126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259479908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552593097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758343122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946815894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708572853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269740736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476177044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712273652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4043053864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777941865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138843686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328530337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384177493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3566266249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579493576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656184159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733969694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"KMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869478187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696028104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626702941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448000849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355777221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LLY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265166804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765760235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645789896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250493812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584229035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3799452043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724029032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340813826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359825301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223991644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4075780269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722101159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554576526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23763137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162474979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974472022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675259647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298470506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390422173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501546276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377413818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707618981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612710931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369913655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474734888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3695684657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721363795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324114232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23779113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"MTD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226038351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636863922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536393261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357115088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153577634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958220702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938891218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087146125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134400194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259379457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"NFLX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448294422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726973737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650952036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286224217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456252821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333926898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266005619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343559013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353000423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777566413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408458408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799003982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719134848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335675742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495957675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430940519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773085782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811836646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985076805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002403322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"POOL","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259988341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760703496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705416989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608727597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489832789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330065219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859429233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860100743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3824601041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3913438115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109147339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769368262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705364609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317920497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490923346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305495993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32421449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848747953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941511895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095280108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352093824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849162063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919828106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914817468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044454716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870796423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939949287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223224117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491124313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3807557366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799204664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690477031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329979644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248721953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361103109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788592763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179510129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619378165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471825484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258433652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590639264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508216175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620676861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268557907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882211788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677867977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269340102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327621613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369800118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520983975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750460452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287470278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476283502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276422433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2091490924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26889347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452598616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2205952424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4193074359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1717808508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711379974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223962382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549288928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483282791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561118671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521888948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3797552733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015108874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4535256597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320724166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431539532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171566668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1953258626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":365.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.169804913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.699832302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868728157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128639974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"03a512e4fc8e601c0d473e06d72a35eea580441eacfde46391d75dead4f420b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965504833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477848177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484858246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499582489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"0dfed41d5b80fd0cb749ef54c3b62ca9e4ab90ce199c2ad8d9b779037fbf57c3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519901797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849748104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917235909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019159288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166374318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464601417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476618855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492229771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512241744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256634935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536057555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657125069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"212f531093f2fe0e8cfec3591ae5038d1c0d11b6b75f16b0eddb766b979ddc7b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3640791621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045779953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457352193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458185127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462292734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546273967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519067436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456735341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2185060ba9b2f58bec2ac6579a8717d4d6dc4203eb6cc916cd17225ce53e665a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089574433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447331396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449564879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456527894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468782566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030044618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088191691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176018972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"2b0af6268af4a66ce42a63806de2890a3afd731d4f6a225ba3fcd677ce81a9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120676585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446616631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044739999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449090702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3020f82ccded2f61b438ae7304da05098605e4f70a7a261c49f8aabdc1e6a1e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452435499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471546792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474214311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486374896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511445238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212265546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5615694561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176285273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"3bc422d52f93246002a3425632561130af98a602d243a18c7f2f5e82b436d967","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453214671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453335499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453505335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454086008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624467202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651606058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647908032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667890172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651774219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668044333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694837854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4a8d299b5cf8be9a1979273a6d5740453efadbd28976e46896963f8738bc8545","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763137665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455346693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451294664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452806675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"4dbbeb0825a605f55dd9d7c3838b2323a2fd2ff488e088147c7ca4e99046d342","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457430747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952160139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192225151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893212393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"524b0478c524b80e74ce4a8f3c5b19cc0980418581e5d19ee30539c2a0c375bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123214668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456142851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465566251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480443688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"52ca6b6e4b38a184b77b9a06ae75db1b30762eb5f7838d2fa4596430555e993b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506006827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464930755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464064182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0466929455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"56e6cb8efd8016906e1de891ee994fd7e3365cb8264305dbe813d3119dc80dc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0471520821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648920041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627239948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638947363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6780d561f985ba882c9513c0be2c115922ff2f6b6a57409b38b5be3a46e204da","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660778871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476681502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473168144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048683626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6c9255010941f6762f24096f66df89bdd1a02e3e302f5702b1e4a01252d87db5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500361689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0454898023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460151393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473350152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"6f4d823f3463ec32ca8461a180de0956f3be017cdac9f8292c0f369c03f453e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487758939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598637015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648376029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731154608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"715149aa6310841192f07abde9a0c88e354628b46009155b12947652b5f1febc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086261486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790945012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041496764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255427669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"736d28112a540fbc6990a229c185d51b8aae9e724403cfb3ac4b6b2b45f166fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325808426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662444794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677496899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076004681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7a9662b3982076dfbcf944b2a87ffb0b70586d1c9d16d0e6565cfd41a6c87f7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795691726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618393154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622333182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605891734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"7c0826ceff3c1c5b9c54d4baaad26af69539b284d11d192966bd1de52a8b6053","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626519213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2481539681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378768963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588215094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"80e9b944dc4dbf3d85acc62b66a9ea924872ce939bca810fa74f0be902bd8ce7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655792233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819509818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935801965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049895429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"887c6db80cbbd1592bad675e72497a9d9730bc0746265d2f099a7412e48d437f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804377046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485298222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533309224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602533042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"88e8fc8302c47b3a8258e7ba032302ccb7afafd8892e1d8e62a7dc45c64393f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693541011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573230837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567098127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572540165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585879592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818399225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818668553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082296875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"9838b0de9d5e3e34fcbb8959a23f07211e0d2f9ba5e97d360fb36385ab9a9327","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829339961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478391507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512749081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564232941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a3d3642dd3fa06a603e9c5bc3375eb3e7311be5e912fc7783b5a264ca5f618b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632201249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0472397798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482067033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497491214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"a555bb018c8a4006de405ebe06bdc5fe0a6c55958c8220894fae4e1ea108195e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514622187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497080304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513147084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538399261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"af283189eab35fbe54e992751ff4f4e6ea26295bc4f7f0bc508652e9a88a1c19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567019462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.045800073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470412208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486695705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"afe81dfc1d70eddbaf80e8f7c2af20580ad51ac60ab1d343c661f45ea8c5be5f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510255272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305640951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3994684762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348167575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611912426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457699362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463870739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047157546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b6d41b2321c0a60a3528dae9bfcf8cd0a92f624ed65db7fd40ea5e2d403cf1ec","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478844177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620797183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625730551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635931475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"b9d431ef55b703b511f5d5ab5996e61ab3b6c58a476df4bfcf52075ccfab2dbb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066466621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063375926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630719906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645260674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bbd1e81785ef849b814fc628d05e9e15d5a13e70b1c4d93310c6e2dc00ce77d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665905485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07967084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804405787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819825895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085248279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799843755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771248888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789941686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c12dd92e0dc4c0c79ce040c86e7d5b03486b998b13611d03f4a81cdb9b0177a4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799827088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658747442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651324723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696963042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c204288933f5b3470af9e85f92ac5c601d910bf0bf2906356f16b5cefc56cc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728413929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176084371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865428199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3801501411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"c9bb93a3e74ced4b7add8f2100cdeaa46237c20255e9861c7d7ae5e4b159a542","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050293492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680856923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720747202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777017595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d0b89877a55aff1d755b286d4d6546142b0119a641bfea89f9acc72210190598","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088596969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820878569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918705919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054632203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175800384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613532459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614203132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061562448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061728252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484198216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478666845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047923485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"d467cb9afbbb2b14a92c56d1eee3fa1087ba942a5a90260fa0df343d7ec4c91b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491850944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123531337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985085702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088413758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"dd4e5a9974475ddbbdaf357aae738fb3e1be853b5d6e17b6f384a38459871f9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368281389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612947795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612947795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612965795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612975816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458998765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0460868644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465956253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e17e2e7cd9e6238f55dda4a87017b373ceb04a9d13047102ad336554831c95cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.047209413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457065371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458070732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046069545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e1c8b9c3a733ea28a201cf0c6db4a0301d2af390dd498641850055b4cdd4082e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465880926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512279937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522306087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551607279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059136409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448399337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0450002927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0453610542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e7c2022e7d0304edeec2ba366307f468df90284b13c88a9b2df82d097fc4a730","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459628908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301770284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4254375938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467294775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"e9acbd3edd3958af273c8aa3a22ce3d4d012ae9865771dac15574d2b5aa1faba","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418549767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287908434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506905299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257166886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21162459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738398659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725400568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070240574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ed3705edd7f81f409b48aab5718da6cc4d929c8fc8630ce3a9a6c072a381c0c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683343607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570392171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270730743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425561825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"ee1af13e0e1b084471674205ce3f430629ab96a8241f7bb4731808ebbac23e3b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169588702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676750921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680254012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696285031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072667141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458562708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0457529368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0465081441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f5c078eb7c25a0b7571f39324bbf75febd7b32f40a887d89a2137a17c40ed050","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476068217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073768732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745477375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761988157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"f711e2325c82921b7b9d48c5dce1295c191a739b9b91533ad606abeeee6f6bb7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783749642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557911489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548116753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381483248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"acled","id":"fc22a20eb8097689f94477098e3c6e5065be3ee90024a8349d16376c2dda8024","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536691666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4903929873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165353369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786871664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070048506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4318030792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320744199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727264581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613397178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5112877058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988014812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771905559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012417921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4244661241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926225204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501007832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464263582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165665134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060306922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566334122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508302383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4268155346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187201754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646803351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555132717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3965672721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062582669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516065771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464996753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.493355144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154368873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561950093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061329113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4268066159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468570188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901408465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706600603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4882341939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106795802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723197886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673698206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887044097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937173231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559731409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506797052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3933209986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093284689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671535531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568530311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1939075281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084136611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564294114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489631594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682456211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1184181103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568343469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050936273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5094033423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911035226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556733388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050648105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144333167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799052099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501616336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.046499686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466983204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076594309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612397784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526130514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993956845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773688834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558132071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050689796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4258291806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387115728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612198443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534880242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4464933004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124918752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558216732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506451043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4220746042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015537013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559756076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050639855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4241123873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101115806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591429631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675403718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616644787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130944074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692801173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588146954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4486750424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111217849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578522874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511597746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4493420336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286403292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730337269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614882468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126990722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563535436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050788238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190284654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155536182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670896853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568107468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4923117281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306034519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555397385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506879713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4139186193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999288049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593069809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530081928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4556319134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393363697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724265226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673464218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4217258591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1584905646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093882606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793614391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057683816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815634902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058948095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514997823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4735570668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821245529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557596068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506329709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806637503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407552052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573263504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492806281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4873364152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013199247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613331784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519314473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458135592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319143992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375761844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2523347888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2316592033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224677471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380875477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277008084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861946651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5461245098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401425621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380878811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270014089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2317427794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041139768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113940277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165621291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.517989505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5808432779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5842117014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870100108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767741785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528676511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400025611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109241694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5055106797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800774407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1849938431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248706797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981966688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2000526818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2069620634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.465392917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455215739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149768308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116383315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562957221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681110457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799997756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599080351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4650943074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836549003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955259598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2106551906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876131622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673930208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953043941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718062845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378508995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573971334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829297625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013349001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224804851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355616531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837482176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072396023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362965767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692787387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735273675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302768888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3478775505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172596675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837979928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989189333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.314200193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33648273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500064192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213119846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970097135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664382736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315556099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364287798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2182119806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980729907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842258401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100045868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283964048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262609464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907034477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166367577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525816146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284676939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206301421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2577618618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422465633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231701281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962786745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312331764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740202225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4118231872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531475763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141891121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786787248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1537334908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268974441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279447763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467155432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766540159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804741686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651358765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586814186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3895134149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878286022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978349976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305605023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194419405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931515992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928058541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873950212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184102247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292563203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103842129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464591783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3779345171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343784626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255702511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509860805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485894202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880875892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255049733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571595636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946285055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210682422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977203657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316459994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579297388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923660912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059232969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359540962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741589561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155929921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1737731179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745702479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1838033469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651281051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479506024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276898482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218174212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451475693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318113174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430641541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206777248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920276854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121054225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545722254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841956717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103924928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374511019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1704268418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2228667868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316492262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077065005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946125909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386801461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416976437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629281153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414097319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268807109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100728744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262444913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301676995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812239285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722688957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128402651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516675983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223323565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3772972157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333216573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077952291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597993909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4164666937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697236003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392093246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074163202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789299758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869477585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242909279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669766211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015968561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772835987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543731356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2366470326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033265883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691949269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407612578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149681863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111112463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458167896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3853043739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4219553887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1651402284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1893595878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231547006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260043949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868324626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951275165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049303201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165634199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998575029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135726715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126211293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163891795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140096916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190879931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827508222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215144498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4766679233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374424021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362148388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2380410717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.405222221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3812786593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498839903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5743492896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957984794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223588803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256880971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269535236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283529687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1909295693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1670836095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125777531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508124191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002114592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1706865954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5885173583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5315141918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4862420157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4211640625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007699353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241945584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531386636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3950575808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908067536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651009366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2088409932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614367408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035298637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177783867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290118991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389674152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911087721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996522815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111321269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188885565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545462628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297394383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014102214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362747744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488988105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318610656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884530568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679077504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550464492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199452261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578409764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283177462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331296369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531551426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848760654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4783000393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005261644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090849774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226992458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335414777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837144691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280937775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022738668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135612345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2037162653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927830096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181651292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1762527741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329648797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2419681227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4607636799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703730603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453789947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362529628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430273509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616993783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799303969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623569769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664741749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870002404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530928772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433060519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278882875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210789728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212735989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046340845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048249685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052816917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267535025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133833552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1799604746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430009154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642054749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759766478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6681599487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5443686328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080125662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933510443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5964930481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2005753458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213203979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215357327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222310042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1236034805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663413467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671413523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068433028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769896879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046351519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051236193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059958254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212670649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213274654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215371358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219608099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059807573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079631711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138276121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231500773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046734821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050207512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071110325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"48e155af8c4210bd99ee995fb8f1db51314106460ad1e9ccc10f995e12f84523","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113009945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134628096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198840545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.133254348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494946616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048470827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052276853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106042891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079525711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046405479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049160165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061505585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088188438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212970644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213729316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218435349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1232652115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046402819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047360179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052486355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068899636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213087978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047823489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052388856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106606029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615792712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704486883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6469082755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5333264717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104600681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046232145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048209492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105468887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046436819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047607494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050243679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057921566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046271478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047028817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049074831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054608203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6748239351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.679057298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.512736135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"65e14b1699d6774ea0ba11ba43d73369ac6a518f3cf6824222ba00fea60f58ef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4275422059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104607081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046474813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048640162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055792212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111333328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198333875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1410202023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748376342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099278778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176572804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530391413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077788758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696303795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736359058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6986799701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5660803852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046402172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047355546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051166952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062733833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487269229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1489469244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733604284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171368685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376335119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498469307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796821393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264407996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575196184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625063199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111799936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605736724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105834561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220448696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392843235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581777223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046072177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047090217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049903837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"a58ff0767d8dc9e80e3460a22cb79ef1a0162021635e3e1a7a6fe4a4ff44e24c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059558411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046489653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048034164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052880198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066409626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047672821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053492862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066681621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094831151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212821316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213569988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215357334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219680031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047870829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051215519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058613571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076045713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046668814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048141491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053358194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065362945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223507925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334700756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4731271102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"bfa6b327d587f5dce2600cf2a858cc901aa4f0856afb2b2ac36105a227280b73","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3967809803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838064689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0941332078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6512437702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.560940306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297134566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587469929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4405622969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252098828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652192719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786768081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6130828489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5660880297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6829674009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6054847812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4879292194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3827511649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046136817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047142824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051178206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064912335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642597322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747198053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939048367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115366633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059535571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097875172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164173636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286412491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048163491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049249499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053452862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069822976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960539205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050073164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441209233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109280571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249934236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319468055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865605207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590943613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047686161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049023504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105223888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062174983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046669481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049210165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060460244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110284654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048285492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062272923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193587842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536869575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055467542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084203077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114761752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"e9ae183b7e834f6311488072a7cbe5c8f887bfd2629b42d59bc83caa0d32fd07","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259068299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7248909518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6618105107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5529630829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4517823754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212870843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213628715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049239612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055666457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900399007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745508192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252195988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3674347714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799934086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524111786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191414298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194766549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109685825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340386063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627053099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3918999175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038686949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265273046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415451954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223836462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857100451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086797654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897971406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657414865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714347342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466153883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263354218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4190781635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877595843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767400945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645301018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538917926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084456253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324985524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593379713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926595862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860714867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266871693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3557353246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223058411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287658335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104979673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398858256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709733823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031851273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261571707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544558051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795840796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797152369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584406964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234380776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169978616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069310633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254443029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352908567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815234795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311905315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386131551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699903847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062308001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157578176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469877786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3796609371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4169624972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110622117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297140082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417692157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894872314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050453217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608591136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397341662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3928734313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763266628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311312017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558252908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387504136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087909473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631695532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447001193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178340034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828691912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310727101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687264667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042111239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083252473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287915802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432165764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"EIX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250277889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094675247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301941408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3632112405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"FIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3915095178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009016103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608375433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3680833852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2136745349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756402221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256788223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326009991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2115163627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049280227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175431501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25541753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432711311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840954303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546426353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312960811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120632071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087992563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713359967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508264552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288243483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860384998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629921218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3637406765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3973521423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905523723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701963719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515911986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284681322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279294932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640176339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460521797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3785277036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837435482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610205112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435292929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2249825957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880499704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758678008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448138286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719870792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178623924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3479931015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229008754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202496759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827286507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375275633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662823676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123434569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058847194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32868126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520491349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284730992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123911843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334960091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627508018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"LYV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3966505585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115624828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397690418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769697593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4142381378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014724386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318226103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456278466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753331884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145501707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417545431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3737591928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"MMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4071372288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165544592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520167019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228562216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098431072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283717082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713827158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596727738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480200472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100372752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638062856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392277356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NTRS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198362338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837825622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322544373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629918001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3930969492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147238724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285717279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543678354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277989781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892525813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717373488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350240851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"ORCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3797283479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013163529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236836552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481097662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782018919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079110135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241293376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433934193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364470491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851955566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169327327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333661063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408447386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123517102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518846857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309725816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"PWR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.206978396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827665763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267757615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522017308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372732814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940660844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193210076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540841884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394170496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897063081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033818442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701679549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SOLV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573606277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105958729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233048987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3404508238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620428312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121189912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341500015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599308046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885337465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085082863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660749824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508312091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305724425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090887011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591610347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367133704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169497489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770272427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571451334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381311007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2200069313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829450211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576410867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342244985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133080176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058287271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633494853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466622587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241153617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122036076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553520609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356711821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152268817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513537718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516429866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524808411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525284734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782172238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646074967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645369804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645883891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642643864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649672368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665259046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"0cce8e2e3c7450545404b68c54bef00a17e1d48b0bec8d863ca3780cea83c9dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686426597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642988816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647612871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635556418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"11b57e99712b298f2a97104d10205dd0dcaf858960e5cf32d2b612a87c43740e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639631435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511904667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051362785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520663802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"18e6bbf2ac288adbb5a18fa251494c80469f3a97d1e516aa664f1194b8b00dc2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529917097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35741331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865227852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857227733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"1f6ea2b11a7e82ec63828373f1492524c696b15cedc9322255de817f1c902e9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912070652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652686097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656482995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670085828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686274489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849543409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739647042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758857853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"24f48970b33655db3ef398f3f7e2b1312ff8f6a15ee8215caedefc18968d77ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425657214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560944211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576378144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061826066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"25c3f1b2e05b73f6803f231e4f0f12b9c9e87f6fbbc9d8c2fd71044ab729fdd7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671157549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.394487544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713398323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339182248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064125538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971673641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834030021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790284109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870137925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574376767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.245576018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300115241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4143089937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510356749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512697437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517723569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"342a14e2377140e8a95d331b6c112002f902a6bacd1017b3ead112d3438b6bb1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525168022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352796478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1817623897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1486252667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574715558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763149314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781086422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814739026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"3ca0979645976ff5355304f9b516663a361f953fa9ad0947f06f169c9b114c27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864621345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094270566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8403191548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776680041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861560246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645983892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649943951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659964099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662972039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816934322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802723058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850374817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"51f25df1e65bb2ccc486f571efa06a85c0051cb8e151d74501691c214a7c895f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882862141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619554826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498868826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306392288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"5407de55729fda0b39a70bfee6689e18fd527b9cf57dcb9ce050ff2f6d19eaf4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435657363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510999306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514254502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521190484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"63ee265d459c916534b1a5898611b69944e2b834360a09c5c6289d4f480eaeb6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529375979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513579308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509651055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509020645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"674ebd85626e739eb7a4b759c8afd13b9cb1900902fda976750ce2fa104c1573","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509620423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295576379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453444509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516060174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7074f97f63686c6cac8ec37d318af7722047d478afd67ec07489c18b2634b5f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3681393243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637645884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638282869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639366985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640475473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505945131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506497055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507925019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"7ee56ae14ece59ac25093d2d9262dc5b932f27e656a790ac22388826e6e3a4b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509757556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159952222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476789025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682330403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"87c956de55d1ac0ea8afe8293c9447209ad5cc607a22c453043125c008ef7cc6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696435875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666709468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676486455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694019873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"8b2f4815aef61f9a0b81fce8bbc17136c8e6487509ceb57fcb3a54dff30b17f1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715649141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556539064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777294007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767451756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"93a724b0c420f128e996e873a82865c23ea53aaf6a2956e8be8d6b375e6c2894","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269854117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399733904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622881949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716737987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626406739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052104994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531381719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549327518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9a32899e0bf1edb236fa826f670493274c7e0fca42b8e8022f56e7432fc5c3c4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9564623849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05094196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051670724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530444518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547006374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348144245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153803469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204782646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051546689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633171779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268549622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224864763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"9ed9286e52a16be3a5beb1a443e795bc2429300215c6ac967ec14cadbeb6e75f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140179297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048274886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129303456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554648184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325668473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649319568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657509458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683248787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"acc636ad694b7666aeba3df0f4980bb294c650e6df097329ad7f91532d95b253","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698637962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514484595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524070768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539883898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"afeef9ddc9b6c6d1773d7a0a0ba5bc1df5a1ceb0a01ff1b2995082894c463896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558575227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060796769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124540872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190085528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b56531512fb6a9e91e9af934df3b6f506a3f2103e10af0ce96705c79dec40ae9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265053482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518591092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052331591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531946122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b6731f4873a909384d27d0ffdc950be2060df2966878f2b2edf8ab4d8fbae363","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540386331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614168815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064003183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649143076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"b835e277f744bcf6725ac1ee456a5bd4be38e8a39ee7b8a746917c25aaf0600a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683407336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656676717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675686493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704940169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c677c77ae293deb8ec68f74fa184fcd0ce5edd2636f5a4c193eb16f6bf8a829d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742009345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628040124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252820496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247615101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952294932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872426471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4114469533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651502669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3376603855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524433932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529825985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538812961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548794688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649939077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644279788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651737267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e0b9e5b9defdf81501ce852410053d9fda0f31b5d5f70d948fe3a2c591047595","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674479841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137145307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444081516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6724247705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e2542e4e9629f8f80fe226a4129912b4f3f0219121807974e920c3b9589df19c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543146143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657961043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670450571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8961605091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"e5af3a39adde513b9951423acd136679dec9a6cd95d8f5a1cd5624f1d169481c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742867434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767566455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636459696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637095371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"edf3adf1735d53cb20af975a837c6076f11edbebb6551ac2d2e4f47c590f790a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063794429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051159132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514129253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518853386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f204ea050434e9fb052f4c78a38eeec59da9c8680eadc814c8e1145edfd5622f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524402879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050726504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507311762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508280171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"f45b61befcbd8c062dcce312ddd847c9d7384ab96d672d1d52636682170e6464","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509699792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729924884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493011806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377957469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"fc9f2a466cd4e1b13920afdcdf403d468f31124894ee70f56b95d420d84c5c66","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816437655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537959206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553620549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578694963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"acled","id":"ff6ddb84aeb6fa873054302a4c05d0641384836ea11b3e4a40dc7c044d156aa5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606859759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5294350858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119979292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121044094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205589971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5324700947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912187677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059567262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354683539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5378604966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998897546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870316166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1865790056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5886681211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904894614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599944262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.455449111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5156470309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096911505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612141811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993609226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5229186738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939515087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639010631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228473749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4773686675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119653823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807112342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4625378817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1934609347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976255229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807460497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.443938165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5136980327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952434547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767428856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4247886867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5262989725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912507229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587227758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.367034883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5699105273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909730434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807823139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715098072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5467423086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901830317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787723362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752189181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4979189786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888251169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079682876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619071945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5362453638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877676801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787999156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847822494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4563077866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426516875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304520499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395468302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5373929579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901056223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075233282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090689476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5233650894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933647924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785210167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014056968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4632292412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952107379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735669959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052710972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5187745193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996042241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650054479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321582722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4873848856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131565359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975638225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.488051093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056202878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785098441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636764343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4658486199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124155824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095925827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383933038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5075082371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979199886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804368346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490507879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5071651119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904251406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792521328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322946873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5651789827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862916395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074727592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958807081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5387881641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895092326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595720515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3770316024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5462295421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862953283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711472758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329303556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5100987794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967337826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801039349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381054437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6006400862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081509494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744117452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4905042852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4777803462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058661921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875916249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5614340454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903132442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784210684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5269174269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5885115967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884580988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740807409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4699918179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480659221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991726387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079793404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040636677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5329753868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974383498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647203384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4503406786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5189598183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095609428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583996657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900786429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021455523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286903487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5600321039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308106235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521776274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105415954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221547873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823067189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5463950596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443221594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4000418824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1992625981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715789755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481575756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449642742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315838507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555706872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547143753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937309447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150026145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1716592399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1599472241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772015943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191096652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1804818558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761779044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891760917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2171217561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980951582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1815001753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271885726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4582487664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277022225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6509663956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5071416305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521696442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863265626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671683838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964071423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.471145663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476755307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859566533},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611367154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434907782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586378312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975682788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855939696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4341912699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558729809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999873799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861957246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5239704841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6812172033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092637883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092479551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306287362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865457454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270429558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139504683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082215953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824704274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593947712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314606492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148219427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802512545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2415661491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114720824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942025894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873372503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889401936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29233437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095869491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965637398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860925049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842399416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932768273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775100302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652153091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478069479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040556973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794631943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631462496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325893881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955663021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868190511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818058797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286592993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000924963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934292977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3269308078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775719641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589542892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2201900612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816719562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515601199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066225384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324716345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682065388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3964678058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2154988975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853325049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617491937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1509278907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007606057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775820865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618666363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325725525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268766097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864211754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128796974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375823071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050154274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986970447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025203198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311732225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012078888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964943634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899197686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845049197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837946554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09256192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170418449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648535735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330028874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233373331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110233133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300112243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983748561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764454407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688914191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569826671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903486204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765032897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618905411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495911588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270556404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040408381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162673371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301283029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003112531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136531058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920447438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947800934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797175429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537825198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191976896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1942073116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750029923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916221411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134045982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863620279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524080588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4101032827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698788713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407984806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672793338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720457426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285065924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984592813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341977876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28150464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895937175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301611589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846334821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945916019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859166254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3724999817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539128335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510271113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691204664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704455661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410251162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312410193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782252115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550537633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774189918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405742142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946240196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002091003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093973968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193652243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899166981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236794068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625879788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4075235579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609701711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220825414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269158308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227731416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871934957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003739792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349842117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1817063482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304163156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104915267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923527337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276064158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192145934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357211075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986403685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164333184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231335228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382714658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1741524739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234083045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29754753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005590622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048994305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424680005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846552026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753080579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3496418799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628921552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292058154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872856406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117932938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571426244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571390268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639337135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791441261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4778569222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4344750338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619384036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858339461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349422815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423498807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624200605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1882167293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2242821211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556260926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901155071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370496511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509469368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775799091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078399786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961336289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242684012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526222569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634110741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274216682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400821891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980435926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165300024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201771473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336495549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259717773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723096441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2378938614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465543394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272032948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743476777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946997892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932313986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018173241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114602693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7053763644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6629125768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565524369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014417029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794355102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897409199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145765719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1533315576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979484111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980627828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984675909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991726961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022704215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046366671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108499777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162494182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6838655191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6138907973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5182262209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"242e17fa4cf02fba614df523a64f8527f7776f3443e6281386b5eddcd84a097c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4296564692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052358865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205413766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713631828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218060361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979467279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980317607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982894809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988251604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109837217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110540386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113121345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119951052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978097269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978414672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980757468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a0d9f56fdc0fcc8e90b84afb5f0e7ab02f2751e91cc44d17e67ae9187d17aea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985534901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658096162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096208513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985779667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686576361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979309366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979916744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982753101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988666873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978097249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978680153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980372621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983554471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996944359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015245683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099214823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228493056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110903423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112949243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118470393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131707984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979479621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980199771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098275948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988414543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855408576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995726446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309783735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785474999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569897597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1595195341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644660811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1732028422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097843988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097958937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989088459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015529919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051468984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540916018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652222932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087232988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097830882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097905041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982290458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989869517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109747095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110321856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111272516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118043018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162457322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1812283731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375731149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292126677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326310296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310257426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443943619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620775565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109888171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110314119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113255694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119625994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979624634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980812546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987952668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008542473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269922091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325028171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495451751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663348978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111165527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111211712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119118802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137088543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513228239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540889176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616463454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761045072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111100794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111951465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115402437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122629386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982477834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990737433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013279886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075162445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978059485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097858024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981030429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098569064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940422995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006095021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252414463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464838666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803776232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899146067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130254757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5824324361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120488307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136596721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835040702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c11db639ef0a30ced800a69d5c3725b7f5b5e7c1df7735ceb4165154e82a05ac","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506866561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979532001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980433067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985838952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003187657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390903092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1557261089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083479418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.382039991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511022417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528616362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576790761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cb3336ed4ee8ebe8364f97814f75d9777ef8dd30a8f775c29ac727372fcd14be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066458522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257980022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.13830894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.563937425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4751466347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109641425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110004457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111237107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d3c5e3b681d6299c57923b312b8886ccfcff2e8a46d138eecdca45f41df8bed0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113684511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373310993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475838829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2044110413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588329009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309467941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434732956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027478587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4432408985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215782341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295151939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151378676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1852739154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979518327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980680165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983442549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990537029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979466742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980315192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982714285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb31216ce7bb24b3917c02eab7457186fad56268f214b6432f1058b847843f59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098807897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770546846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878272768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203731545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5229154484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111113421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111843432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115724542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112322518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7767549043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.697311444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5875536486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.508326585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978099353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978383168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979892022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982602699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138097029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332792222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353438889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.37937306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862004764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765485925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582550488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428937732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901386831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27181449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488346764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295399037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129318359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381878951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425947187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028562369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818756078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575179742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838228702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062783255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117040543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207777835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389842689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558372247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904938954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281293037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3490062908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389088278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162728302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645889763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398244949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180283308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201771773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664191218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439678007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237994105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160581385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351769059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467417571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234896317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070696302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275636701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494573603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717670283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151543606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690411767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444011934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3940713193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109481616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235693865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642257361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36374007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097944375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271021132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601549068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DPZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3907622294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150183239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337938216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621683511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897745616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131585631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240494477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435236353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500097255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179690179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33553102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609622833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893776088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312109413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296412932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570601009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383507483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159536104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297603467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559762783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416131101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884805556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3349828323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3649556562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956394345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048940867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184103004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355183789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534341147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131939326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304941229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356186718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343145349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854396741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650210221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442976919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HWM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2225950973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053009305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830109315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410268391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364615188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895466601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280928542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563462027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859652542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784846048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618844161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402563832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207045527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189934249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637393881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410375895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4034560987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181058484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305920799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582631933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722391646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150449387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655849837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417307741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2196420556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764859696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605239442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462517171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363111494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152500277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271729111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516882605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318701475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132912892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286644835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554394359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2406245362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133092831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209708998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757331117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"O","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651253083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122962215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348270011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3596883292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3847494534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083510473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822399744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582921552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238514391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117513584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328392538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3611633541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3918671825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873948361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714347383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248550007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261598221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101569756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736093689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499363081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283560315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186338893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432522862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3718894086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183986651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196645531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587066372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327225752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165396946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009991504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999952641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048580199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"T","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965760555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129412899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723189956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531607885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3833530726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855809115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698267264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507438017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314908791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183156029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663818183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414953924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4004151235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082524931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202490454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681405728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354747164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161179827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368949164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460374365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"URI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229616696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168390548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642671394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412171513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"USB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244738073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184916754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594304847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336824346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111411612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802149142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1887526059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4782833843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805124923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508760569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508764689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509174338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509444165},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712366962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766957269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777774132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164407229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633508572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633773833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634475874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636065244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631538487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627084043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987785969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1738d25709cb374aed7f84e35fd58e45f2ca11b2f9f498f02ae5491f98d395ea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727268773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8723587868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8380037725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097985057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"18a3eaf3f3072efb0d7ce2368758f37231b473f3fe2eebbf093acc33210b0c1f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7134072526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236539633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219297852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278235104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1a5e379d6670bfe8564e978d9d627fc1ab82309d9ab68189df11062370c824e7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336392867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955084384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859764092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900855071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943915025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980205384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1923940097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646021122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"237701ddf6119e28919865e295241bce1ca865485c4fd0dcb7c8d887584c4a78","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1710458805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684319942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687894552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750383925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"258962b1414442b5405004e2ff205bf89f759724ca079e098be9087efe1a1366","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776937263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050995858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510653028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518598944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883353308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883368833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883860377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884463984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945759821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5456751296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179356858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"3db338f224fae1f451242b9d0a4a9d4794270b234aa2ade2b88918150345588f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308832716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065454132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703785071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790965465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"464920ba72706d46dab98f4a7c96977ca4010648392c41d25e477696b384c6c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932944164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517286436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05200714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052564333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4a5dc440b8c896ff727c47ee44703f6989406e177ac6de9ae9446ddeafdff8f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531468256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056161239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4346644874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3475205925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4bffb59ef6e138c3d53c69a2490b5a7b24fad812dbb28bf61bb9324602f74042","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3785351992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636356782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637210842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639666687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"4f2be874bff16e09c3ce6611fc413654bdec80e424c95401535c43ebfb5b76ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643810281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683241831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717315899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741040598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"51297bea4751f17de2777ca7452ea1740e4ba95b5e7fc9d615ddab2a2d37bb5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774402675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758443884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758446388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063370749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"526ff622b728157065b9b3f1236205e16706819d62ee42706073056ce13adc45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634219629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519057913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525402333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536724689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"53a22dbab619912a0508c7ebd7347b9c9a6e264e0f77f7d8b502c8c5ec21eca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550984508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511635007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512274499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514092101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5423740e1ae09e96d2b652983818cc90e1ac682c05a307db05cf52bc26c14cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519538032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512332748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512785993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513760605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"56cc71b68cc4e427db897229aa641d7ae27e86df817f95c53c42529332b22b25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514705468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4288495611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3936500075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652753674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"57b6a2c4204ad2968e7545f1c576c8c13e9b34e95c36e7672c7d30cb0318da7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511305467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113834906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242998733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491363583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823471871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517052444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519614906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523366359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5e92a41e03347de58db9ebbb5fc5972867c6b42d457adde9f667ed534ff11721","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529409283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058374892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093911942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367490472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"5fac76773cb65a80b04b7dd463d25d31b951b35205e0a2b253b5b130dc06a193","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274366291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274131338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307990408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332239601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"605b2bbb61dba23dfc154d6cdd25223b72329a403c501221391a42e362ed8839","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754768243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519510912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530068774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550397016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"62e2cd569275a850242faf89865fcf46ad6faca62bfdbcc83deec4800c47bc1f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581621121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514580475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520989934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533195234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"630a227b8c9a22cd96905d71fe573664967324396b0367f11dddcc9dc53b4228","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553089982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644169327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650112751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662363096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"797ab744a7aeb5243b5b1657fe778a0530469d0225b4e3777cee51ffc8bdf1e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688411765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7794989144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7504036834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393396825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"79f3e0697d0811093fb8a16a596b4f60311d4780121cc01f3eb50e414360c31e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1338107526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518835426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519622456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521571466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"85eff6afad240d20fc89ccfbf3c0b1773616fbb83a6bf384f4ddf05e64d1d29c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524364476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05130075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515699961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521780884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"881adedbc4180ec5b42d7e3fcd356d2d67b4aebae171a9355827b73bc4b3cb41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534368344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535548341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599031536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733265334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"89b78a7a03ad8ee34ca6daa227bc3a617fff08e71c8f2112b872d2b73d0fe0eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924607407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637855032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641298363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650449747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664034075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050870005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508702192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508963586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"8abb89035e5c2ceec47fc96eed55dcb0df21982201df008039c17814d3d3e291","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509330316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776064654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7891717918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7672630696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a4586e1506c85c6e237b152e42fd793e8d3e0b787a6efc307f8b8f343b366ce9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097591212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518649943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525312354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536876732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"a66d097a92fdcca2d03b831800204bb9eab00f2f90091277bd47e58757eba919","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554426045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786667519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665573555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662762716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"ae285b3ca766934d79d56f51488bcb3c05c304e7a7326c4d19e7f55d6c094d62","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068844289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574405221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570443386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550844635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"aec0cd2acb5e18ac569ef9e71c5c53597288c5b94748521392ef63ee6ed2b4ac","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555059457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516409152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533903845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564396043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b01c3a8bdae44371f5917c6baffaef2b11e7977c1994d979d64f227f778c0f5e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060526282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525700829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549333529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599542392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b036b17c2b1b41097b241de55470381e25628027a379475d6348e1c0403c9b06","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667713528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854121164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907478987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099796534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b0f0ae742679c116beee145bba48a18b8fd0aecadea1270e1348ec28e51e9520","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080948288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654296848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655837849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678876591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"b3b4a39eaa66758e33a89a5c2cf5ee94a969bd5b28c02c43484f878e0e245aa9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710457236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8190338756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255077079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122815257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7144556393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743956686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722170462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726927902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c687506c847563d6d6fca34fb0ab2e248e35e1fbb725ba164fea6bee22a828b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734922301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6481780298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6470680438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536880506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c8d909eb021c83582a7aaaca7c25270a44fa1d97459c4886bdd3981a5feda69f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1658441464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509511171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659980763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812378831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"c929237ba08d3349ac630ca780bbb275f8c3376c0d064edcd142e494cf0ef266","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4543656876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522256998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535057335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557109431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584212712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052716981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531611754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538878162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055238799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4935067713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6947846387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999205324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238599828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4553747829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6639018372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052278108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1573125705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2039556575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098693748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4608964357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4391439102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6631610398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019630406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382359271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.480857818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7308557313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822489565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309928455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902246597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7103525164},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023145676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330426239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816251576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5746954095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205054702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371238811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4628084728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6890788506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746110712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1690347118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4543360679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6680524392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006011954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418430881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4644350792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7111309814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824731091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1908829144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5087104426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7056829984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7674273484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215648369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921478771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7326207089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732237285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121651465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211196985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6786596542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12103905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931428684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4725064427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7420192476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.829650636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961787799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3994909643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6531758708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935092185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565544642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4488465809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6410868697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700945235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1172399851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4290096921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.65604613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102849162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432596376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114278895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109335928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057903401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951297813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4654144583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7084630437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907125387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337533034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4613294831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.723458884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.822982612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468486108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4084297219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6542983691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997222043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499802433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4326371673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7067593908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777551312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1156149869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4147970739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6370551294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423573134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047297475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4919156003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7181631827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760300885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128165919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4539039872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6999422549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7870935069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1518331555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4328150672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.64579286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7474916541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423523958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.439510393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6754520622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106859331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190614531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4462935582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6720964764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041835845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293197693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4045604706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6357419375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.750652243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120909932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4231036749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1296348431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144288363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123120206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682857982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.583645067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304609173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976038861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4119728891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.679542582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028736184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001188137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4629982067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6898462514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101804023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1371110182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4520408886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.136303271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245846696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628966851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4542984534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958039142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915172571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171072787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4863606722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025549435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797024833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958201157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607142868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4662694468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5668367853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660974058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3922075359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373519896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2337395423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3880915373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201517444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110323234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4889778295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414293393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801323971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878276176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805338418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4228745335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481164379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331185502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4736128882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518272032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2111525014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897478915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674580047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766038442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214996545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2032929865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134270503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931476431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1712830092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345897428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5641213173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379972948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414944052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792992577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815064497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945672667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505015283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.445146797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230309031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283231786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1757433103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781702038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.510649354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570880075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7303119882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4041948738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996715801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219241356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513835632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843269715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337434224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085156525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814594546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640193227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984990151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335470156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36880523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070833501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045555453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492176413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3993561703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4531775381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143066003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994225607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129790182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945393157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915092247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3342892929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3874817982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150198766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023313865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925969723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931421827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867346623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309265105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949048071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846588798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765132861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928215259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275252974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540690031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384014085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860400903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449711122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504939459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215310869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2384815122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888224873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642471169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373777053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087074911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307980199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324363644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919835097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031128512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935106172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288998345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848766728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782004767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0912173553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274120399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723868152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302360342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816651201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474497865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440089033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955436971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894322139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306535169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288063605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134128936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970296828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887136506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834383417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331325626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967223243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102203285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270089911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023917782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124237627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298260082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424853512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772978454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249687139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2186801257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.194509436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937627795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070728695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1358172891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1712692791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.377413351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719219781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015510258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276734005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067678979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122067583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162509131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230113228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971186815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146083973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469041911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823816622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7466900205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6678575124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1715742851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025931455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409036176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645971404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621958465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335769668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.336244507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374462249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938444102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385864299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648197145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367066433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083566236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882102219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065703089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045398916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271823239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027675649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.353624008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021415997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656531197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811186046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107413507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484574706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223548099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372010619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642190903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077691612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971669997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964406187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325122952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939302577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215814802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322885084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749911993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866478796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828317707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420325109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550512545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962593992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994370392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930299799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405435701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252379888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543217977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823189313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609404912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724987217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896927408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078246388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2159480191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483309521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982331785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5008850054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2104633669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102661051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390372689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456354363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1560147146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846214101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4951831108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376885125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072485672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1782722864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587384573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6047860628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2061281823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5320925613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4606190917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832363831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690012622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590666326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524932754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412906689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098152124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267182194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295547816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230323869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4214642643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370585181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516166281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4564772305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162671949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257590807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104706593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.246755737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114172583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1919870264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1882967791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120023472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239465486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316959681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451726013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5433522613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253893407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4301788812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629758933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958591369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960120845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963874947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0911b8db0a1cb2b49701cc4e9f6b2be9c00940a5c58025d447db032fe776caef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972122298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212035125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370482616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1812877006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224414199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531784272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568240469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644809943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d0989190ba1a2a4b3f3738f02e6dd5f463afc712d7507c8a89d7f971d4c27e4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824682537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695391177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832989432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077886326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.563702851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959941832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961850823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971500806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989921947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959556332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959902403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962743507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969421327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083389757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083847251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086130722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965888247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960489815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965045757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997856841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112411074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863357254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096125581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051736494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668878494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083302583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083624759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084768369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108787583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958391372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958947405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961384564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966610508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014165634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048769696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134700606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307679912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091124144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953184408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056709095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251923119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851239201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6880912736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1394782308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791715431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520424396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542695613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615707187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796989389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958353857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958915865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961379059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968631232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959753825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960894935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966071744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980548061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752559208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935133043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131605758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816113534},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958292473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958459846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959478973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"5f484517610914d8596bbc5302f164a81bb62bab27d481137fe178bc7a038ed8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962040045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959807824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096092681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964436765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977354602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970767685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938933589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0894558151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8268737637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982492036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011611667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086636215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793488695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.70452665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258201676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576719655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084584746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960603334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965653375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984065016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083389887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084257931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087277532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093945128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959754345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960499635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963443904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971305183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035287867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192884868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484281173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846576578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085289733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087019711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095266106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118242815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223284983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6503367524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5542579708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4614491477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129085677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335133064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168242866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108423258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958403347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958751358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961031373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967807847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958291858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958296358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959024364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959966377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545792913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14041322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437881766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540030468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651104239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691041232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831689449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117985818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535994698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591173999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727248273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963010783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026886973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033586888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132385635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1230384393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748553008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756602901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811239708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089620113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140000049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160490859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191437886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240324766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161935261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1285383695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174632785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320220572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938950588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057236588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298583528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1705618422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960064321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965727249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992800405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064549496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108473875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960743355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963930553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970288816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860289586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122885756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516149283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102244903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958405847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959276336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963098787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097391715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963393293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969566805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996045009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064111046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960277818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963057783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981465049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034562376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908393888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730645319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496185385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897259604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834668346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410563218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2442662954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233559022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864316669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354557747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3598611523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3876924549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129108012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633665573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838079063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2046050445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891566522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328974852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580765436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457306873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129662335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362303293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706434021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143825699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862508459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.344010004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3742836003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098908903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3076252275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303339046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2579207717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3721302765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086831423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189984558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743847407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542665396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882756141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699257402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3611077912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926484179},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121519992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762194068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529150262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3909664581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151646463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708761983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478367294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272935384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941113148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339786273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356851909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312449553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875041837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308122003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254494892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351393488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900744263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327655592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585980851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427871661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915510849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273621045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430590027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624488541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125352827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294814531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473179097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505470328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283627254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643855865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425522156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210788647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171844188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379888219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460375525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225382319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948618062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786572724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258988981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403220007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891448785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712864772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484096345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236576275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124032838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371210733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249460447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301837627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312003626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386764861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3687685127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4018871248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151079771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290867983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431139153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"IPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606601831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167144004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449383129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781032416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4150029416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852893053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636419963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345154408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107945428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185379715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412363875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371936514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4090511201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893900259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684403704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464073241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246366089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116301806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736375132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548311085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2365093063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966876232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322890617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640128104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650191401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185223276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413889458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748095561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211297634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173473934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665631838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3710633372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181800478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941905459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768998725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614139154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492790828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128379888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320073897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519865247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321718923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179996991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662049606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669182807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237270181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120648419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708629495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495262752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296996232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855208072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338767487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532057827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359601462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847424402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383562684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3661581972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3945378823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927992117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136195584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207845523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300322747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136365736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372793422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467726464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269044886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109717722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284308469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572013624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407377077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181948149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275416917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638029672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620840692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850705276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649406313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418042087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.403114158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130235696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339522855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421497681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183269914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171504497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691839654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493253827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283320818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287335206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368304346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2448089702},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226904442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120106226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700790671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495117745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294803219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829691685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259625049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810099079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4163948484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916556228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272414234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499483725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315106312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868993999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669892855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247075896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3996256887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552844457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563252435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579584618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603387842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525145303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525304331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526452526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"11eae91958ce653b31439c8ae25646932702bfc3c8539c9b8aef332ec0cfc9f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528103755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788985463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780864381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798124267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"126d174394bd924ac2e825033e45af82987438683a304d28323d39d124371d27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802616905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711538544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726296857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740201181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"17016efe277936b6eae64455c446b716f3a643da7982cee91db28f28a989f703","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753820008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893742109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923645229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965762195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"1c001e5c84b5fd3c4a951b618b881a55da7bcd86e1d4b1ad190dde63c243e5dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047138163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1567452565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476078724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426029358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2058fb6621e12cd52c6646d5383504e79ec9b0d9281b28637dd6fb31e4f03cfe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137229254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661102059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711813416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901348512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"235f28d247bb9ede0f719360ef3c7fd3988fc7e4ba65c703dfa36e2fbc0dfb01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201432207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654215781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658760733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666299938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674885384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4778699342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.461171696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929247614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"2e46df5b146400d2b997d510bae88153452d65e9a523828662d815911a017212","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753299845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533542176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538526113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549990468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"30c3707c11c9a7b00631bd531a293949ae6d8741678899c0bb8572b3289bad07","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565885266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1503015382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.705778094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6714442794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3572947da6aae4463525f4961072432105d4e007728a8b8b82188338845126bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6528314654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745420115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635184387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630702944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"38d3d006730c668958c31255bad84784678db5e511365cce4155c3d49c033ade","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678507838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5609756803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5215995796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4816950857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3ab117422024cfb0fc67251b6507c362a9e24e3cf888a1e4b5985d59d7342bc2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4572753954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781534117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785856488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797350976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"3c4ba30560ddf9c01bbdb644afcac3ad43e0745350f90daa59ece934e108566d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785058532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652741305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653796606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655812531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"46a6ff7ba711ba6c4e3ca527ed36325943de38b17f11ab5a9ac88a30f1480a66","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659587663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707214974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761436786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785920476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"477dba801f50b1ffbf54ba0ff6e94af99193558d93aba575d08c636166473600","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863554991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8371253783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001775239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095831546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"48aca886c5c07a2f09e075d993e4f1d85f5ac011bc8332301e950a1d2fa870d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221192456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349323331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349064834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1407360595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"516439b3d17ba5c317b3b0472bed91b2699a3b338877dffa9e993299f986f66f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6920186185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5846323303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6248012709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792174715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"60168dd6efcae0849fcf2d9a7d565579caadab90cbfaf96f7aaa8f510507957c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5542727153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194719429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061471119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537065269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"6642ccffacaa1ace44fee7f618b49d54db8da5422e88829f25b17818e581cbcc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.454308983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551255952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567302748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600752324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"717dec8614b8f3b1cf149ebf7964569979d532b30a7185bb0a32a0807a3454dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618152103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228342365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086891159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113109827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"732aea7fc95a4a92c5d80920cfc4767fc241d443be53629c5247a40a3ee335d0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275499767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771958703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776458921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777231216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"7aa9006bc88a639a3a8fc23ec4cebdc5d43ac67fa0cbcdde42722b8ce409ad05","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782795646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067676586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696203114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719017824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"86f573c0a1a22ba888a8b01c13552e8a547d1c4b2365be22d2fb4b8a3d5f5ad7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076354576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6579187009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6468239916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018166349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5681937888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541949195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549671597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563709919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"8c890f838064a395fd556d0a171a798e2a604d69372900325bd854f0ff1bf182","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579108724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900702551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772330281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771568011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"9c9b1d1cfb9d8665e83e9464ad692a4560b1c6f8ff7fc00eb1e56d2b92271daf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777504961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667115493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676090174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691607673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a66211b607b640098da240bb8cbd30a0defc7892d54118fa08c0651773f516a1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706972607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651468701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652823344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655575139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"a7129df83838b8c27b6c3537f357e16db8318cc36348ebb25e8a9789e0a312c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659960083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481728652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6570514119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6036870887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"aa21897e3fcb148dba1f9895e15a806de01461f8b5df910391f9dfe01245d48d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5569326816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952585862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002147234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061833977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"af7ac5e5caaca66a503499b8551a99e4107f8c6f9a0766f42eb44a1650f85b4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205282158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793731822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663689346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661077464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"afbc861892ad72ca526910ca9f287c842fe68b0b17950d3e8d13e6ac4919f6ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667519382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797986823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779170562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794487367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082899543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656427118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677395352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698603583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752320402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534556174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538662641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546839658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"c99962f984641559c44a3dbf67a7bc08a63d9c07659275fd56f16ab9f9fdddf3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557175427},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973897592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053368584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151039846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"d199cfa690b94f225b4e4d5509f048ebc53fcdf9c116ce061443c6c6cc69c477","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541980888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530367227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533476497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540674586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e02ff5fc699586a199ace3f60e589c6fde72b03574ea2c3fe5396c58158a7aa1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05490192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669663587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929560292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858761189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0e1182b2e75babb1c76c389515d32cc3f4245128215d312f2d1a280e169e8bf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3959597229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649342228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649342958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649496182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e0eedc287a694592e7eb8a684475b8bb058d9310ffcbb92b3cb9821c42b88655","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649505136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8642613342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8432988001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016399553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2297e8109bf147d20a5f40f41c116cf1e0333ac9446c78f49796951bfc3f837","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036045304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527094413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527909043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529914217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532264608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536921264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544971076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559143597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e721600074095633a190332cac92768be409b095cc6656f46525e50beabdebe4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584625249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040486873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051461608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073060835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e7abf9f2fd718177e40a4d0650d7369ae70b2d3db0cd8a10defba2fdd76e776c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112787831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2048402966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236486581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5301279215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"e9c055c39013de86ac9095f0d66d611e263137d6cb6ae995944f99078d3c70eb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616375263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895898581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998301283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140325482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"eb4a991b0b9ea903c8685dde291165eb8f72a609e28743e624a7ec37bbacbebe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6919404695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652494188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653653778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656662115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661713051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665791004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545010156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553136429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f3b7895b2148386ee41020abf11015f2362d2f1b6773f0f078beed857fea1080","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057069421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524542927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524693129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525196332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525549583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526064777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527263877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530038348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533799301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802803307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0831479078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848507127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"acled","id":"ff1f9d7e8bf2c1a64c9ca98131b27841da6fba51697a8af719d0ab32349ba014","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905785061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062745921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1761775101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6462965483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997634791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3934897543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5771574251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5848873271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872536378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334630154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146612885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105098223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848324003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2537093269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822612329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.651286535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119905241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701150507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5997671384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6209368699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930985636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4022196435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6252368154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6550264376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838336811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456973997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539545469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7028750818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1544027862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473668723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483178634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7285482605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1694125959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534765298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1494928485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7107857305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1450479048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538265254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.674156195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7142856861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1081983721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393984748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6111969934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.619191892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973235101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4587439267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6003121315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6249318193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088233642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4240543667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6522564727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6631463346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836486835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998796732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5952621955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6174919136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0742438027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696463248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1661176376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6654113059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008534653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.434514234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760075122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6418066053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856686579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585264476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6097380619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6036032897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777419584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3588851931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5779374152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5501627674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823237003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415054135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5810423758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5793823969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791837401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492965828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740425371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6519314769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115623278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4049746086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5814473707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5723824857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988834903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3643101243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5558176957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5270580604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888436176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529302686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5476377994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5472928038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121783217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4081506852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6548438618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6309671927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0865146971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645313896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1444129129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7112357248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964435212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371905028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606634966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6352766881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052434096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527330711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904197795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5276958523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094409797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3872970746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6104655161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5857875157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080849969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4025636213},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6513045357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6854110523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089128614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676031507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891573955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5723874856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170954593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284606135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733544349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1772387466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332383671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884460864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006136649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5665725593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350280319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371670031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721425612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6286017727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960885257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554374084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142790825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5346770024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059734004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3755249821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6056720635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6867860349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133733065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525056311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144038003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5478234916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303184947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646263884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2051371428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2001022067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667313617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173719877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233619117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5519591294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062489118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822726388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1729199591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130220428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309693134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4240874502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318008191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2114420629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4032367305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5746653505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.154032234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125244588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854726376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2095832104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1962422961},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244384869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4005112105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474478744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392179788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739562701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667082309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4520964573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.495504691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682763421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613684455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957022625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1893373432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6274411549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819508436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158437735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023184467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356416944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897451183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697571281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075780109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277028685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5296080281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6724562166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356004991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184919735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1607427058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6610776109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341955062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406420896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535865284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4859085823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309705471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919097625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188805989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626034098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4184426497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084301583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380563412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826515669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4307544548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524564942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199523871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840942359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1555955252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953360655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291438113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3800881725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4295330509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282321251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930675205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100980763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164819006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173962187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3464170793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957971765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4450843254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974846753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213497366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356837453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468519985},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103457208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279288733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354101083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512865381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555291846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2175123602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835569174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1561596679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894812046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771284255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.356942884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836559024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994880346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189610051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355261982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3912733227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029479395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963813996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219951435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960222489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995332137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042853419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047477763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303297979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013832874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088982933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250515896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3439656439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080039362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033948983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007542652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983272263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807386278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944632055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197484821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601565353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643206954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082016025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223471724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800074689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6503897992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1600908619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.187464527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188550737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099771472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284392222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396520496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647615444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056033023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819694345},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3478060856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2596949378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907620094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052681536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268118716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779338846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309866633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920311375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896537998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938426245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011116556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175773207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3332179247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762599999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180327109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760126059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508095144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652092068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796517286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062278595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4303548784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896047706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087278238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958504445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114573109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515368804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577451029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517275054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752434567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185208152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282734255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340542143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534519633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4662512418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226310058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342443102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492683382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4211847499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224700372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264272397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947851382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328720701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408512919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590594024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975921292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054986293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070061069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095453703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035395325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996149601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162878147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113554498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297571109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2976170751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220511955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001352063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030563724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296527128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694143908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616118651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974862679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997043281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2119191078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282113168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753792321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259703759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2395988593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167192063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940529721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913949142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604931724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3879595134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095597011},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145040193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933733766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994611162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5837436619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5510456257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5077697987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4647233793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034612393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331578087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653200401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3887419795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068652449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889171528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343839851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794513562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904111742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480947119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393357903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362438667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4096913426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4140763905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.455610668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4526539407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4044638576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231308805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220644442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1977139737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827170186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3783503246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648185925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473347603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254358958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236850869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2286241006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150778203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119878954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183009449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255283503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419188166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974400231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974862398},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976060966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977645305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100888982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102151466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982887478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999651766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519440674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775924921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184969734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691913305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974451225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974947049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976598448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980522018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976002065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977114051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980459009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987566419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229384977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122994779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246589354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275347389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986934927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118858237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674976201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336886285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100599495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101133609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102498981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110690495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974440595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975296204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978228542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985582949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975990566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977058552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098037401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987087425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975739199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976548258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979208195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986451558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791337407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7432303191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084570868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1272749706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557049378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607133243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072805871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"558aebef0c3c95c9559e54f27e8fa908da02917d9833abb9a2330d10b1b2b953","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095432984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780808847},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.704938703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6203736817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677458807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974358596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974955209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976356566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c16552f64a5618561c82bd2f0207465acd9a8f20545856878a2c2d0a5215e96","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979367028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533468177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552840932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630326949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782062525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975838117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977556411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981835536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ff232a05617d574bfc6bad7c1a7122242e61e6418756e6aece8e60143ba635e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990707504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974389097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974960109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977352183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982942987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974512089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097560809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982050034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003160346},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974488095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975089602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976654687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980300016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806050221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866650952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010197132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114908954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544858033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577705616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706851979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969468648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975152581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976359566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980454029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"8fd87bcc69c631b6d6f0eb2b91e50702340edf62f8f72c6fab9cde008fc4d941","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989887014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707738967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7312104715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6316367342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5397328997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627640483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656152122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750550424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919435783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160482726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387379849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.187067372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4395091707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576246635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723896262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937483054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099829495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213982048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383529897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920973082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446816413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974487605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975092247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976664412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979890151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097563858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976645062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978548538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982797999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974388731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975095812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097683791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8b7f515a77f84eef9f67684e3e0fda572a040c30c2331fd2ae9cedf838805e3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980959638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838786805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966335188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180732469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429779311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08865362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273431294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640926633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156420096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186833086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475340067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.217426987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053758717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530416936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542945402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597396587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734971142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066419002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696088615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785037487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965635197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471591281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579577411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904073296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386617177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965135203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151032846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635926697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4502340347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133684066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199082236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382179915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609177036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998385282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115283299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1446879094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1748233804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974688582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975584571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978365535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2b3905701cc6e48e39c4b858b0ab42ffa7f5db8a6e0830c06fc94daf49cfb4b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987834915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974237848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974539789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975357204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977405678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097644956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983725467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012387104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104338438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100539096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976101189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977601805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980952513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111998324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157382765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265481394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401879665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824426323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420790857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747111557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ABT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4090643337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198952138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653976949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3766700617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ACN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4091739704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29130116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715758325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493013681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291001922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964967532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762685982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562431434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2338108547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888270264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701266268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505385059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325330357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027433676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140729725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270762631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524587393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911529902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271801145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612985386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489579862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830978193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668712079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657748247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3940250925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916125509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305856504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601623851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760069123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179233907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678786666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466806795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3989586686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900695822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730814404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536294385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2342949625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830350335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612400176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353159836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"COO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4177781303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288876927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666627904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3778765879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4154687631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865728703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614433199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363234033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4138753826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914291719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301033839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355506765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353206325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839750115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624048211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377150299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.215242387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918335881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334524426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548353962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"DTE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371583824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319695782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721442337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464267471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222584443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918449312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320354094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590403476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323148715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879819729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703665739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494153467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293962499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294272858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879463323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377641748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.255881601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286981636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650715218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396551639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176973707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865553604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373774238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488807214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390126675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917303537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785317759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599605466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401534027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957275725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796668893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609688633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707838838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861437948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665425141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446324419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213240253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822875929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646848837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423135571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223394613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288312524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713833886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527370369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2349675786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313900624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273627279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529272862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894020947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928789218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772254471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558013753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926932299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879102667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352741546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590759472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433079078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904895383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775293103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523976701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423736228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873107002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732933045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530953424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NDSN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344634651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924331848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737190799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530989123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339599128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862868585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697282881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587368251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362384668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804497002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354005658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858771799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4181743113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885957604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347700585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520222287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3846326782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949742835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291062931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2587279788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444888381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899932638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676134981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371396574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178055354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882160744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684179456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490919249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272752804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854612247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402249954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3673958039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3988223932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932667849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741815459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517223289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339843933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907566585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305035357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260669425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722696592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898035025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414490883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3719506156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097845202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966739283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825885675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634397455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497792348},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183767616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409348136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449358745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VICI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3977656777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958923695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304431924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578622936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2412748196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885528021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717109682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500199714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2292888637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900867372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745596464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546008854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.237789451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622918306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633133721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994225917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"10f8102f4bdd0b5db500869814917ff6f93cbd646ee39b75aad04e35c82a9269","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655511948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992802738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115225606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7065787526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"24b8ba0edfa45228c3ab6b0ff8508712d611d3300c9df35f3213538f35016917","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148738902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3925721491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3738879247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528616655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"2957a6c81bb774fe85855ce3514e39f84944acf0265a9a6a6020ac54bc668c1e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3460883546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676768852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830719161},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4127040266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"29cec9b1e064ff3bd83697866c37c4146e05ad96ff1e1ce53430ea4bed9bedfe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.418035803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668721224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667847925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06646975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"30e24c7adcde5a3b56d8828782f43f83f74bd14d4cb880536d4ca7a7e60c12bd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689737239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659126301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659478454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660561496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"35f003cdc2d9136604facd287af81b2204ee30d5c512d7ff4cc0e5b7153dff36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661837305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100037864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900013994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.804098146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"39c5b1a8f0aa3ee1a768e46ccdc5f1c1e002783ebe12f6ba97b44bb869efa7d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937719816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.586579289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899020386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.494524503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"40b3473267e8fd3786207bf54ac5cc4daa4feb95decf0546b45d15109389ed82","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4697912415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684054739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711426987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700367876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"43978019f4c4313a98877a44cfcc5b67d8ff5e3b38f79b1a37020471f6faafab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740391101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711308564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750074929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806834191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871776733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399274029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452485344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491735926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54b946b5bb1f27ad718c986b0e4fe0d381ef13050e432ae3d38290fb8fc544ff","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556644783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790780406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659849402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"54eecbdca7698be8d5bd3545c994aad5e0c69f603bb2eed96c83c4df5eb8801b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662388455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530012218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053275276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539181807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"5921c6ffc9748441a5225ca88163da4b938b103c7f0540861f345a705fbd1130","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546853515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666172637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683588174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714109706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"644ca9601121c83f70791a8496df412fc0b607bf3d49105573f9122ec5d54bee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075743938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527263214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528119564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529519185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"660997c1e02a13ce590521ef6d3f4d036389f44a6c90cfc578a187625c4b2085","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530854973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525958991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526253747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526580225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"698466b8d63b8314526046ff2b7bc60e9f1ea54910407155ed95a8e70f373bf9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527653846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803688882},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860918678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967786052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6a95269bd94aca4747d5761b0fca1d5f60baf0ca834b8936bb1c5db934d3a461","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100544862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914373772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2066954982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408275832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6bb20f2fa953ad52e9a54da9ce45747426263b23358b1fc8839ebc8c55a65c8f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784702467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790785017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791428326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792466168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793614712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189285652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1326960325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487191648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7525f05236eb1b07da89692f332fa3e5a48bfd0931afb8288dee7956a049e782","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1604328648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860581836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851621177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850989604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858094999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526276973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052645135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526761265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527249672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530854973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532502487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535947017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8d77f76d5b06156370549217985dc333d962677bf93f6b76d7f93574c08e0669","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540286028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792227675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793163499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794236816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8e8f8e8f1728eea042c282feb01cb7b1d7831135d67fd7c53071dadefe773417","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796654146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800174093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816061828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834603156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"8f66b465d186abe320bf50c3ce4b36ba4eeaaaf9ed54b7b3f0e2b7c056dbb92e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875992059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053150933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533528234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537164856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9755a3f0fb1e92417cbdd09fcfaceda69ce82071953538c25376044a45987bea","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541449193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657679365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657687816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658098955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9a78c5cc2fd823b2c6d89a29890490cda7f28c4179c2b2aecc7b07466e8385b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658733444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536053334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539426016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544959256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9bcb4e5af77993b2f61acdd782d86a901ddbeb1d6098e4b404408fafce177b93","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552415682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908102067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797703672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785145649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9c4b01945b2c904b225bba7cc46eef0a69e75af43994b1fc6530a29d1f232c0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782036197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527882708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528674851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531553452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534878732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580743997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583364562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593157865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9e689e10d06d0f1429c1880d45995e0a2f8d7bee963366562791b4183527d7df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600664819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539302856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054585769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563652691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595335792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848040066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891855978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847984275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a0d634ef1d2faff827cf4b6c0ad85e6c7defa785e0cfa1dd4651987baf269aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893798639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5330950749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206430734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709292927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4203197184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536802819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541439203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550207755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"a71824f8c6d14811feabd3a417205fd1ecd2ffbfc3818e4b7e862b0bf32a818b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562261617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563110051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572472295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583977729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b135db546c0f6fa1aee79e17858ac5519f1dc40650f7be41bed07b575b591919","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602261684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662831593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532528787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534945123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b4c131fd1c3447d265b8e9a1bb8d941de82c20210f1e7cfafeb3806d40ebaef6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539496554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8336272154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897809225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022729498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"b54aed70f20dc7be94de241f9396ad030a1aa892fa8f7ea5c5fd41de628c1b88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060955328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7837211596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336935736},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6917921649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"bfe28789b1fb017c39e6cac557106c6b0bbbafdfdb50e987b05992d95177cf01","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6478283551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525858663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526061775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526571304},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"cf3066302737d85cdb3d3188414916e9ce8bfd53786f1b06da0e4251f12e0dcf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527550135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663002585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665166828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669890056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d04c5905c5e94ada7746da46a6c11b842a5fda81323982f5f4fa6f002b13cfc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674657495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669725448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676948055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691620904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"d9dfe7c80498053fb7ccb057a45a1471505fe274e49158cf45b9e56e996fbd98","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710794873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970679252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017859426},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090251025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170445899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0825858684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708355363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734777333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e14e4760acb5af34d7a6f7799283e4490f63dbb8df02a14a46c810d774b2b475","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767422554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620134237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851861357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073127796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e23431ccb960c5a77d030e4c9f7c1e0aed45898ad4e9ed7d2784eecc22dfe4a8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392553585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070621112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734514172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796304562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902042972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706230594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849773775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838277289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"e7a52dcf3f8c21af25be5a47a717630b25be0467bfe7a8a304642719f2a74442","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036180224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1770326899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6987119517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6720354509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"efdcb1c990c5f8d0d0e75ab06796d795b1047aa49b9d037687b4a5bf4c028820","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554106325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525835472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526005848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526476018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"f3fa9d7314b6c62fbe0daf66dfea1d6270c06500c2a0025f16795fb0ff000160","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527136639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532605388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535891227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543041333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"acled","id":"faec5cf3edbc2ff9187f2ae7f829607b0e12e3d88e381d0decae1818103ddeb2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555128354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589561641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059851317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5522235153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476241756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024761277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.543781396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618881404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838441854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646475063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132339171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035074621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956230999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4690173286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06033017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398511252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490779745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5713683479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588840964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454759889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013749209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5252548412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635512704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279855663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295872226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4814296342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9170849792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529830039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230752275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5419663336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590209927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405343249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263231922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5516742978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622776725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556767244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22730509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143095001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580617153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891762438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981883108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4781418205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704001088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331862619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397491391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426738909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587091986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282240631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146489538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5422087277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594630519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888817465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312481875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6079173025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9597383485},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370957488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193523414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530386864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562248459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246927821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300942353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148128168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611296029},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861630529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1860514688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902321093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799849877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288959657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963260469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5550313358},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580566099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340719351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248547497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508938449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718847624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189842672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038422751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5849475755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575828134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994984105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2243356879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4913719627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740784265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276848926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099513252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688255591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744780076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725543465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5973726939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563353739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495170053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689807024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466422187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752862602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744203054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5512355514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064136858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905704243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921878851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2072918384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170521689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156411949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210962792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1874458943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130322672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575734455},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914165045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411912834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613622905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754835056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212715116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5365515108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603799076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360195486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865042163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580669785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916724966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301953569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530716649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0596209489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069594292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239557768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933804136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748162795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32704439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197343395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131019525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635565862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763802091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1988853971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014115566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627068894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564882414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808365905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961989075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744566952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025510464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3726258897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122688684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339354609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290563921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402430653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4127309926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040509791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647107014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3516126298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264416766},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341772597},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271503119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4040669607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1693633657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3533209581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750985111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349177238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635948591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333544137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4926032806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309710252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173956546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639388355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603871808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855808784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398380949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924742347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231698592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561939652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3632638177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1750555027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758381445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575627048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033394119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093688612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860944134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653858421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270853028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560998089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307432232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021102782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14715251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716588167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318011336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191427769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1795161478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315169189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.545679472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601120797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459344049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302783937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802305099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150577901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340341743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059327895},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032035106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159173885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252857311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088445447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836873501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518838308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4123471659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108241048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081429583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154618934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324775941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961059949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417673203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392504056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4319336502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984789373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287473929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449406999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4218785231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028700205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243586971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636306303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843451671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075883804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334627308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532281257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165777854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302153323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822447753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627979473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470131618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131943145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063412271},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988360857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2960034823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105277144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29893543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031824596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981026889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.352958662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301020644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200065004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1697308434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291560801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807238569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2528272806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300667198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482349717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484172883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486867899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545024807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245558226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402344621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551553111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377654946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145864805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375095713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618029586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899120791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007804226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994441825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017331269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081825453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812709898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882297396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041332209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414459289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097526858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224861123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293875139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3441861763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078398072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294818744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282378537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814312911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28911325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283488826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827061641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814885926},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030852487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134011531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210417105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290196901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763577334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489098574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4079575794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927223343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619081121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259548342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861766944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1549680342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558065623},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663285084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704375344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784265194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362350883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471587596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833875272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327263393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160544768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018290186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3068330269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229963768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457735887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3716313626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3911252289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377227382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3279037691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3790683711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429472685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5552840354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2035925347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125068816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223544113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329672654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815925785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806253191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482837414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329138055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619631081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098100707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1877913873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3312300389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3607764397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3998686807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958453856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991913914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160105509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788557904},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668228958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145332195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3466991401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361603438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113631799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821493186},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612755096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234631705},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101957794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654208044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1626449125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1782994331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.209994588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118150067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974870313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011128389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324584584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918751585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931247749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322937297},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302101611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056384009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994403537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906888136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1994460835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5152643595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666307794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600921243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363872855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2321158442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291826898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314286544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035636934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300728957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513112289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769871679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017009038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297003541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220313982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008170652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444098429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354961241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158323681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941629281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539875827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055247178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1582808013},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295372415},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981884786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952749707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240199738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931143483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4975573219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4791571741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381821612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709175464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5253635506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4934425784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.446515726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979049446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475814783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253709538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160213664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179125609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.641313262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6162082554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.563300698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4967155353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132273764},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133438024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135700384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140053343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001050229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002478671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007218215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0f2532ef303196d59163eca38db9ce68b93b23343c320fc091d29106a5c324c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1016562564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999427626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999891454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001318754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"11fa5610f111d380c8edbfacc9ef3153b22a2e4088afd24a125dab8b21eacd88","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004760121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011466699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125915353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.169347576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254273549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099936403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999791816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100091839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004089227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805621542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886161157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121572543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1439349884},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999468643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000051277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001598143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005348198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000916022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002935526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009726153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"38ffedf32d4ca14903ace5aea31ec5a49444b8f646db87a8d0a32746c5359abe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020857897},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000075478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100333921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015849922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053676799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327710336},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587599453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738371688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911988473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052859375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533104343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548325095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600761662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545670324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570423844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061079339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3eefe990de6f2a6700e2b2f62c0d42634f8b264adb121af16ddfb67b02af1eca","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658179356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999627713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000216538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001901826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006013466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004626598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008122966},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020214198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054137332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053045483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540759193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579831878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668903199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000680776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001427419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002978289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007122956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533157502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544840833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617367698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796409826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785917108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957120064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270574752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745055131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900220072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6986080554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488683249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937293927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762907916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889201932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123203127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5711697109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690671943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797436157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993971177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128868583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084306818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098776638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2113736223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"61c0fb3703e68cee2439afd5c2d71522bc6649a1fa154491f58981456fa8ab68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143850864},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999429695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000052878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001659328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c834e9904b9b09a57386aa94c93dc600991e09d47658cc609744c020e4c220c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005315056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532439596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539645493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566758526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.896607044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999469185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100005652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001771171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006140463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1012954616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023502667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039013424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062519562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000906022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001800788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005134105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101492254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999417058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999843511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001127099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"88305b6a23ef54bc19a115b4bda19fb289d1a052a0905bd2b9c15a82f4a0d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004509412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889161728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966201818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044202974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1168674235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205784844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307483194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576789819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2059796981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003157102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008194546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025397959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077027672},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1454419583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1623422089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2126797974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4317672566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461529162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1527308559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159426692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9fc87840aa0bebfcd6c03cdfbcdb1b6a11120bdb0419d0d9334301cf536a88fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1656694162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09994418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999919797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001376308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005050031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999539701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000333713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002509856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007756644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999416142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000001587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001398524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003947772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094535993},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7266926824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6078382885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5111158016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969781344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093887922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1337259951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1623685251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999428379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000049841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001910642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100622518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618281891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8054522351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040607054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6076802518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1481959465},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1691212568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075481424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681279881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001218653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011907232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179058658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465038162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001417603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003843955},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022974238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101902251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001731292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005441347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102022104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f29c6f83166a6d890c34703dbcb2c1f785937e0d9911fcab7c1c8019fb0c1023","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054282071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913990517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949254198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082729861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271890561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197209178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718031329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529035023},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335444925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148177953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770393833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506431315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744442539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173864999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719585663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3636865706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BSX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3975951155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930208432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822442899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419292509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"C","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2510131725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194285708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408890785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692851634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238986349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098122785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846719767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664850371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502259145},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971808226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820351012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602842247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426839084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178541308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329783224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551758532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372767544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082543799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185756307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308496808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COIN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461202906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890042863},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27216205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3569549632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836963416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134637158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327798678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254788153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2357474308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883154099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721547625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534899724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308011945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895341016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272815893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631287873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3913904211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133001918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245320744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701117072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EQT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522542834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138335947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304335854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260166677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427288992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319877951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340721677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708057499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4012425508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130996593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806181417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676131726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498145251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908078323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784433352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412716757},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626414493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921952262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735919496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533238255},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233470401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900114746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758413333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582705055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401904313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204731528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396539324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475957765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HCA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957518167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211709154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418883867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369727515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003566518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091969922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824254515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627479257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454782217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826735484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670565379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490278347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.392384634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294511235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758040218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588291756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KMX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408451611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135443128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3294341229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3495201845},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3726066096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914609357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750326677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519104821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272060506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857910851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676439325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458146004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2259546628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213129163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3382870997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663318176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3952916189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916424155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339330416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606776433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3909832898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2908009666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736577903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602511687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325463677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315687759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3339235838},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513595694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328939478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873034311},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705063181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3590997143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898821566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293971314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814724574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652222713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504248375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120900551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32548193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655766471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483520015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320040745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723635541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497769367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TDY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295679815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157654349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774031111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585053497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427843633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903603018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766479111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544724994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355235745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221273419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656170612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750940599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4089638313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324058501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424266737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697470759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033660109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996030152},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123423555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916934217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722969707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884989365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750856279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559861497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TXT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381411752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901527142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805673722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635028188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472174251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120545295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279948288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647494886},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VLO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509595033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875356319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365494791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3617595012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387489393},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928313498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786859249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636869791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492589516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896729624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794262143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262667977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WSM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24133204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888863978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720436043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564606819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387892703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141650873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755126677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558388644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830162998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062939157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678040953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0800739397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"03bb1ef2f37b80e18f8f439cdee2b401d0c8dd7b9ee23c174dc33de82d77e8ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009186754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188891975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1250352696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456556081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"055b227f00fa9402721de3d33f8ad7a0dcc1a1d03a25eea711db08742ab14a94","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506677445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108122818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227592069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4539141989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174759291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1875189077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1821596256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1989153132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"09c29b4250d2e7a801631722af12a39843e3765d3bc764391c8ff68e552a6166","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131949821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656254235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661238291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670084234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065855452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660609699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662881151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665830628},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"137df0b7a4554647968b599f4ac27ea3fea264e2a454e2eb10f95c49ad25446e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671186585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531311819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530558834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531051857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531551376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528761347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528951984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529421353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"21b95fd95d946e38f2aae421de38ffde58fcab3cad92f857b64ddc306b298d41","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530315842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084629332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897150675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951099991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"347997cc473a5e1e034565d5996ccf223641f796b49ec22a238e23563fbb4160","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013121204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567318357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580021696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592679536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628566581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094206751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004886113},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072606755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"41fa73f9b3c32f2235d2b91081a8d3491f7667ad222079a07b9af607a7c31e74","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158081171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370371992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5402411542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5095479434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4aa907b68f619b63ce5cd9b49cb9926a3db074421a4a14b6d2f04e10216cfa9d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568629478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784566102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788389554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797676936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4d3138e094a948d6402ff572086e04bafa2de05844ea6db755dae68c71ebab61","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813989229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7719696155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204224781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356420351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"4fb7b4d5b7f6aee1d66867aa605ca9b3a56e0117cc4795c950fed4188a8a7e1a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150782843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771272791},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784699226},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797035944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"53f095ec85afa740101aa7c729e652f9cfd24dd57872898303726bc8a86a7388","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788895173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098718624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123936996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104658578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972679217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847918299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090144512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964169325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053145696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721443403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765152849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818121677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6bb3a3aa40aa7a4c5d0ba9762d2e33efcb5131606b4fa3a7f6f5e1b9aa15f63f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093497082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6178142204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098687438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2278635156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6be5327d38fcd7b8d34c96fb3a0856891d14f2fbdc60951828e96e4dda36b34f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4972150998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871890495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945904056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102049911},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"6f2caec49706be33cbee65b63605146e6d654da82c054c0e098ec422a89ec92b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110087974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8623195198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119200806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8290791413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"72120b9fbfb12e23d2f05bde69e1fddbb4b816fef91a04fc021f138d770c4823","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989193007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6596146404},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1828940858},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117887694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7324000fa5d5d32e83c2d260425c63152ec88965e22de78f03bcf54a74b0f973","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468732745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662277198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698257322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685317986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"766f114edc027e02123f3398c14402952b326c3c4d300c88a838a317bed96edc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689602057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055286169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076248403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140728086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7789e3268403020b81e95cfc7a90446448986989db02d1237afc7af42efc05c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202784299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577017734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589904571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612641783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"7c7f4bb8e6b6eaaaffcf8397ba1e99c30c5ed1be3676dede2c72a20cdae104c1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643191395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539824206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542474172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547836604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"8a531050a50c0b37027e4e2ef0fed0009a62ed5767e0953cb67cc75be496816d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554179524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125398565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293515148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7352294315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"952de03f3e1b6b9679a372ef16b72ea4b7b42d841f504feb5819d06ffe1de921","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6976761077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663108143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545727756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559574456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"98afd51ce16d3f7540f9ca54353dee0f9e7514db215fd5942f427e80c5111280","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581167682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664641758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666118789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669333314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"99534e3a72fbbf93c30a5ca0c576afa799b12e57e4dd7df7d7a33a8c4be78aaa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672678846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530732451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531546561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053318354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053560751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778392706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528448877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528455407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9c4b4c3da1318944ae23b47df8b8d11a14cec31426486874d38b04c97b54872c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528468456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653543804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653545305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653550849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9cf5bd4d978bea8033ab0cfe860f909b73ae468f0430863185b38ec6eba7f505","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653556865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580742687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615742243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682003903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"9d4864773266c4a569d83762f1da3547a387adde920f67bf504071990bb39b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784640101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.172862763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827276379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963774648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"a5b72c68c2339dc8bc81a7ef2b739560dd5228604588cb61944f8d00cc661e1f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162672126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685991352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584292142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609141827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ab7af7f097bd58fe0b19b5067af47418259ea6a774ee4379b05a16892a8ae3c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652903772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3924849779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434206001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936212317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ac43cd61f87f519f995adf1968358c113855c60957e12599c8744994b3964593","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675365624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916941424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900951127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921482866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b116d87ad801f2eb66404d27cdbcf83eed05f3173fd506fc17da22254ad87536","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904343084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779029938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529087868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529097477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529140867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078830318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792752899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801369514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b23d9f826a6e4f783fe494e782ce70a79e458640f0cf4d2eee3e562824161200","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811876756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989057009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902613105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8135880878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"b9045a3183366b432065a3aacd9502d996bfc28443636af61f2905a64b95ed9f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037211399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360877294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760799722},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660012319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c39d11c3fb96c753be09fabd013cebe406da61f4eb3f5f12d24b41501f749f53","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476732643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762404883},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676931467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701491656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c5b9aa50a8b18f5229a92dcf63f4a62607a36d7d79b94ff49e3bf42da7d47b08","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918946898},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532155938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532246827},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533549371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"c6d4bbade6c13b80b9471713e992cabe74ac23b92b41b04a33e5da56a15f6cd7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535457586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669505068},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680458448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696667782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717117163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794951971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801518387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818326674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1a65b6f444f2ee04ec46b2a13c431728e27a6415b24f70e61923ade44bbe7c0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842511868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696283742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702575587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9162014865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d1aaefde181285ed2c3764b1af19c3c50a377e9c621e6adc48e44ceba3c8d2b9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740299134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529970846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530030412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530134999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"d8bef2384c7a9f0cd46d52d9f307c80844500ae589652470140a59cbaf951d20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530320703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653135589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684010783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741321651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"e25d20b75343fb0c9cd67b0891dac2d5045e3485a0e79247f5c66e1fad02c66c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782217852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6602986317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1853104052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5621415265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"ebcb744b66dd6c20525acca405947325ba5e709434293a54618fa0f687ba5735","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118020692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1620985995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6890002677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530134648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"acled","id":"fe30e48ca357bef8e04efccce83241aa399e9c884084c833833d50b10ec56e26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703474949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794284181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231171257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5356001308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565892376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505426445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751627339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5014858245},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909838014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531879723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800626717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003007964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141685074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397680034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179802675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4439254647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680090927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644442957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922875167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4960097879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620341685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611187005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832076319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.523713849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569792326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089774877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178105803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525491826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723570876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381901381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159787814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172451099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740640159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2508502742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1573679595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334649482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593392027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511566365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1807276633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5266653601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577892223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239161778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678378268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868564613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581742175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673615647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935525007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.524036949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704590617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495728403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827038382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097248216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066329364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310445958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752027334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896869372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582945659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846803713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086073098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832994588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575642252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659514387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2127622571},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116250189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975495681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888312924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389219253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1478064946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025103552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255432466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707585103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.187968767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571242808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859613714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1786126901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612095505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649229137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788446658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193685592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827613611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834739466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558067112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703840445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4772727498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083035817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563917038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202437388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5280603596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1079548862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177759253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2571066947},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297885601},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811489261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654890963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230167128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487085868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590843059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947912168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144522356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847080595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101658666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105322853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054753231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063410401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704215259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160422155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5627251387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066536027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768681356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310070257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800963997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707291082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440506281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871600626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134140385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064440388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735768132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197902635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1632931142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030088489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358407511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1861725943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152227543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621692168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722305529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110850783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5378854739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595794496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346402394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410067371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5574815409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143298438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156464038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902240464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5668815997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964752317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309756027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243681865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5224905033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826002077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893341338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575937201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880533762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726424308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151155853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227175138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4462286064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170516314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609163012},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447599279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2086323094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744597862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3928587025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146497555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139908181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416802691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543140185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851724906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107550856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773106832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4205137575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900546655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875820559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351184821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790237437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1848014116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410527693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3944049536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5140132577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673453511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270108082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548295236},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514973477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895135484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822457403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4195162432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2351009032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113276549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910823562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860663275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1589379396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173800801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858610578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4184057451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187234496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999170073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361276986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4484001977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1777932775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349120381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331100115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552415026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326922649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035367223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190786419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791125185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626577677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154423951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528017178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271202367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4586583123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028534469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012042526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986518444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293737355},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105924122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511971851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356070706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4429641448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018981047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026316511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075336047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319304149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2620978275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.390766976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4483549802},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1659246676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975456413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33565792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364406817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4422543618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860250981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781500296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033752098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4304411576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036335599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871095844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684599425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"CREACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2393164678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256860662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738734939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300639761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2919766256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182763156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730025201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553476739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336648949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313297952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295863691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515231805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775997041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363319831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417799656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609662335},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1959274118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075791606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898869449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781623487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711882261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981191697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838704544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482457763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547583535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907056609},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154744794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151792547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103056262},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938347037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090506042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080940889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094536751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966321713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192250098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090675575},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020026274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798152135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236564072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901060126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540256829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604222517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471947392},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539542414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3456220158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913075147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315373968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419616857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350867487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123479124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316126168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894229872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881107514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779785065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761732141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403419401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113335902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378863433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602706047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2347460806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094461723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120023894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172964157},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242237424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128716055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215934971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749537799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319803973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4802905675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4738021852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4597080019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4618051421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2265267975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225933038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2376949457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946798341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3032051792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054998919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078657254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229757231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575105853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283561115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2016651051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050519842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091737811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066302967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113209697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021181861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072173735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134387604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209020448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360627969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341471885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445625171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4460472022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4522591121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4305887276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3793153292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700423326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769973094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892278368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351937514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578036154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591748408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557825172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635068801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24020771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229079768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401246497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642111949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811308472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3490284244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3895267475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288753219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6151276756},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.573219171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184492402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483007814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972392622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958615338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328375307},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355126449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912245497},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636542488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248028499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906268267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5767107934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5671121075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.534047004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4710664294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636831487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522062329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327023381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4627611124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126423995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641205038},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2420338176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255598491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619871184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545174131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453411569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381576163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810879769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892997971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403685894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957502634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4858779216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047285005},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160443537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385086557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4033962475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306829975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2231340587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244805328},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834508055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826526124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524601026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112792645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.355942134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458582072},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468253503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3494267087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978752655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979329693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980999486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984731564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984089617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000509209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103081198},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080312852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980203121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983419581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993529952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017053154},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073115278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845888825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7051960123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332062853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978590183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978846314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979816856},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981327257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978703151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979409217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980995351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984570816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980751115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986014048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013049205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115235409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533410787},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543996653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571596803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629593568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980002634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982708115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988806077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002673087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533119291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541530684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573633277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4651d16e683bc20fe0c0a04dcbb52fddf2982ec3df016a52643e5aee291b37ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648966322},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979855811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980452588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982200096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986400043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1763851318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964086644},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210556019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498589866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375735429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466130298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558139156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"57ea48993ece0fc4bc79a71f7e8074b46aba52003044da4ee4fdbad5972148f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675447248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540756694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567491855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654848247},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878650909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097870765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980109648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984695195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993669956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870311527},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050900286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320878808},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5211505745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097875365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979465261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981202114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985196063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530619823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534536773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05481556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582646663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979078136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981549604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991725475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010819733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978741765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979324633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981006111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984570066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539471211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560348446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614816755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"831a289e8d494cce6ac96eb97eadd8a2d80ec3d7e406ae440bad864583a12adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780739651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067821211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777139697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088994417},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8702851a2593fcd3d2587481a2fcb623e775e3cbfe86abad2641bb34a13138ce","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6051003568},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979842126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980101123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981235608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"87e7a67add0d7b22541fc2a586dc693df417e2805ed619aa45acec927e0ee3e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983036086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964003228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159159967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6096322242},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181746839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822739118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993486953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357982331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1921225188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535163765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554623518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061756772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799649411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534487774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546029127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587784098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071854044},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978739155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979592144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981399136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985219128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983689077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988847512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014856182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093148189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084574123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000310846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12887235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1695681228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537418737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557482982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628971576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798239429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978891148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979850651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981964729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986524546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978639662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979196203},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980586518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b899fff1b7d81ff8f5203e1233c0fcf42d9ab6058d40a023e3a8b395dbb1461b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098386421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096538553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115666544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151103039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6075572505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097874515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980310645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985486199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996220963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107339019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108806466},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112208452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119100365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025099052},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1222784045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833676298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263076619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924838824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026188538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195446892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"cdca2eb7619f3a2c6a954fe6a316587bcfb568e3ef409d92b8eabe5dd2515bc3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1403535085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666038342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846266888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133040124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5366160932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145248028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264133521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624528951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225382097},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534624772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549237087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593990019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d5e1fda224104cd3bac9ce8ab4b4face291793306f3bcf515c4be96b4fef9f7e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723482877},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153097929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1358432325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5369731456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4246745697},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978703721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979575914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982458723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"d700c61c4b988b77ca70229e22c13ef7a0c0bff407f8056a5c363c58b514aa6c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989661022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097914067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098034704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982637016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987185228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978690656},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979160275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980476148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983807131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665410567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985465665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6090340351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1957481099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103652066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104097075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105469163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108791496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907419206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706189279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249454071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306307352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896187841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763323421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554465937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339433634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891979429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740485907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570253155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863840761},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815318577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534257635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384172334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208449662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890611795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693622482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688131824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3984754588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895085499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736627031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354863202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLDR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3808269744},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881219155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730868362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635334929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3935285512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875340139},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424823963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760578706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4115687944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135871101},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33428042},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602809418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862963276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848266733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449960473},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773462662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153421405},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885522181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399461738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655206565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957442337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939490708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789618658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470786422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494629602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317001987},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3302998283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3517329461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472600905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882230839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757359906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3584614259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825049509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086224176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849991087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689192539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562799544},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939439004},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849516351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265901901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249346865},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925538301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748307378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633360807},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288617253},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904501408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714555732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502938875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283462365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094660778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225234671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423472503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"EXPE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613021737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933803737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277437816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471225945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685408116},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870107591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373671138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641843974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291637804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099096878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280715222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621270375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451983239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126363212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3245664146},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414572448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609445832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822880763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3414871559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709492906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986186839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896547431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390334115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693295187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4010547488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891644693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700084732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678663084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3997808968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868565562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351249906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656404788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JPM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273404818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913392104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721163615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543552334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2353609403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912262632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748624652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612763582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3894907862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829858848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505327487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387942033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4249577516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871369677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755628104},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564412483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842762511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924149302},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703124513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645618278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCHP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2296123472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915907018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756597397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2536785957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884387537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855150286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2696909433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3686020844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4016542558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054574286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929492382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879454542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779499206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120380532},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2797300326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641067978},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MPC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509366361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2828097173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536599891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3889812813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276341267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137836147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265838239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3477889178},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461135408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959660313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827073793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650168799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2462854783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29260842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799903431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350434051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.374800137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3173132394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331637564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602148211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884262444},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137754732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805266286},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507268842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248716983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931118514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771866797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564733944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396672075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892412125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346230666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583148659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.384019472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865329285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662784193},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3730646162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038002553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162855257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272361975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3635536586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SMCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3901108174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893811043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715127577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2529246916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343238675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143308945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730347977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587846559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318349774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851502709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640467667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.379786411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4136318806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704786889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072310295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716803383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764024609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784423991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792938722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788859188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"061f9fa01e974bc5cc72bf3ba3ebfd6fca17bb2adf6b9d619c995d837131df5d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816866972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538422843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543755027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552966743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"088cc487ca78c081cefb0a5aeff38ea6cce71a14bb2ac7be65db7dc527aee78c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565994831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197417878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094695302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139951236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1016e4e71595527973e72a2d8ae90c087f012526ecd43ac767932afffd94d5df","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194625205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474803135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697176958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4465959502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1061061bb25116eddc7f7306852a16f8c8a68245b49856aef732fe0c1dc26091","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351315605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5995171124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5357477984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4705625687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1091a78b4799b92f7b8ea3704705c644cf2650eeeaa70f080175af707cf3d1e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4736218246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926690179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971282946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.765311834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"12377d27a8d6eedb1d6ad912bb047048e8e0256933c6ee3a96b0da5dcf9de9e5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1329919842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746786985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750309669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079504928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"155b1075d6e53f231727571a2ae13d79ef5b766970fd007e6dc514eea3e40642","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853394882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920791692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657904099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658564109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659090959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838358869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866376127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087480362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"17e8ea9f39ec6d86c5a1b4303926853aef60111f842e94b1c747e7fe7fd4ce85","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914759476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829635056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815336423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0851911702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1b0686655f315a3ad63a09d8ec60284b5be2511f35873d0dd0b22977ff51fae3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868448263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539618125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543649768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551442004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1e1abe7bfd12ca1c9d9253d135bc6123c3430edabea92593d07452825b04f7e1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565388553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165432667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176017034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227352532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"1ec12e411114606e68adbef8f6fc85afe4760425d8af7b04dc6276f04ec8026e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268081557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692717783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707433817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751520871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"220ea7e511e67ba9d9f82ee8f0b5baf5fe5bdc5f34a5e71f6cd45934f7ed7d26","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782360481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735158923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602053786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604999093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"26219a3351e6deef5e6af9564c756f778c14920233b5392a1809b03972d51f2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620775643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652844331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065953437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661049252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"272fbf6a0ec7c2f66bac164188298c8ca870b641a38d879d56fabba34849e6d7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655956705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531263089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532799481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535719771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"283e98c8176eb64886ae366971c76b5e20b71753d7ca4cba9df041680ea47b02","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539575144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6108880705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.575207752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569188218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"2d590d296710d26ebbf15d7c0f2d0512f4bb219b85cf99596d3c3d2de65090af","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679505644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526093208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526056918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526273458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"329e4b7c4020d2b769732c3f2c1b0c2070fd399772047b6ee13e9f1e1bbd7d7c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526887941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029867499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8263015278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838777823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"33c0bbd6d55f34b3d915926c3c162a021f55da71b1ce4f05c3ac107c968d2f54","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104292813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009847202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109438056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152769488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"35286dd484845e7ddb16a81724bdcab94c7a5a506d8eed97a049a688b95e0091","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383294318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531408013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534070699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538116675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"3a0bda4587ae79a24c67b131bafbb27d0a9c9a413da5f0ae46e39272e131b5fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540327103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536039913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537203368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054054238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4abea952feac95b930f3a577254e2b03792097e8c95ed1e4d70cd14533c086d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544249566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077185569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119338825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167902703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"4e1bc00239683eaaec1b22f3a34e81a5762d4780307b3f0be33f3a156371dcc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237224784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1762299938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1839606347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1959540757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"548b165d16b8ca445d41c099a94850b85aab631346ef7bf2cc73551f78d44e2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129958021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200105965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072388319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072252148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6ab884939d068008b39a7b9ebe630f16921aa403e5062c8521c7c7ca03064634","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074651847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656779998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666336324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671948218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662084813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531790639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537840729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547558242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"70c40492a9021e3b7fc8862878f00bf4baa0c9ad469deb83302910fcb80b94d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562248459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065569564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653626678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657983058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7a463ec9cd62bb6deca4e28d4794d99ff755e6e37cc10ca1c7ebc6ae8dee303e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066977218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.585341218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5184389628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732256426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"7b337fe2202f26bf7d3070dbc2f0d0348489a08dbd571a86f2b85895e046a5fe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4204265095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535579122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538479687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544338199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"85779cc091a393ee2b1943831e785466d0640e09304b2780c0a2d3bdb577b30a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551786746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548881951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055119779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556255265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"8583a121bf253d062fd008da0e47e9d66f16e1362a603a072f423bf4f0be0b1e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561892317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668429529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672749656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675567592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9102855bf23a8d879a68f0bd46f0f7af33645025c7e878d20e33736ea41248fe","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682208743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052630688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526574299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526952505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"94a2017d5fda41c80178ffce379b51ce798a0e8cb84c1b963ad6df695dd15503","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527442202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150912978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893753901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980041628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"9ff71b64f474e9dbf003b5b0c5f82e730a5bae694508b2d5cb0aff623d05b055","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003571845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528406379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529584291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532092223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ac104740ba3b09b1bf17f92de4171dc413862436c70af22695fa07809f77f757","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536705449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675964356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683811841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699906816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b4c4fc33dfefc6907605416dd018160b79b5c13528d59109b8a6c9adbecb0039","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071965132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812791653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082184494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840307319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"b5f2223a0eb1682992153bebfcde421ca645159fcee9ebbaf4f5f4c73d26b660","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882647947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535846489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539309172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545169259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554017811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657253231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657255268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657420665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c0c4d75a19a17c2f89f7418af8d57f1b759deaa7227d6340bc7ed4bb9163e7da","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657440408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713690731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723056112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769270482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"c6fdc907ed80ec9d8b7e1c12a992e66770a3eb7e70b8d4c9bb964b4fe03ec7d8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799717249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526093202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526093264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526900484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"cabbb65452598d17228627229bc7758dafce1fa5a26a28d85a1ceabdc420f1f2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527425722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052588391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525886483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052606216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526104377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188377835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681135142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094347058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"dd5c0c229b308e4cb30b62fc828624a898a82edab14297da7c89dfba765c6991","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3695663869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847945854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.859378913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902721929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"e5ffe17ccc9c4e16973d03080e0cd8c7218b17b8cb8f6f349679fc96782a5660","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967842368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807644203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819581749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830095589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f490237184136347ea95c9466c4274c4a5e822cb0617d8aef4bd71a2e5a8f4e2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826460272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525776892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525778478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525940605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"f6fa28120912083a233d99753e42b613d5652298d5fbb58722ba354fa32a2236","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052610486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053546072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536258411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540046425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fa5c459888712f0db20da33f57950bd27931c665b9fca6ba93f41b54309eb166","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544694036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538500213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054278975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549344584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558195768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526758065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527898208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530676939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"acled","id":"ff1ae6f30cb2d07ebb9bd4739c13e55c9f8016b120e1fa19aaee2f3f912e8d45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535745566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042437774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432644615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774251603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563148473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275052021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2726280548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817936461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552536736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346068133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226603756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204679038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110262963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737515901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257938866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798446172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565988515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759329328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233995903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795988767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554380974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195540505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555278012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818725947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059879058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601118808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774649686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884621661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605409626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324779203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000231978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960517523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587109354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974580557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609173548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915411591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604986462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182523823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161392263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335259922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1070098621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618058687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084692087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702882124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553359907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017442395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764281111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755198689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547309817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687473664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2148535139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722513994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577570266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150795343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622279006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782409619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558355244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686553693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319169248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848410597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559973689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814650279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497382417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838831508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585723544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665845227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375222711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113572424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092272108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882367694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.231564288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745303805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556197317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692731538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251747196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697408358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551885148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578292514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843515788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685001859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802531104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273221198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751935483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565006921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137635836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285817724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924938048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586407765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318084852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566067646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777988501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549565113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916862321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2509540492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858252849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588315688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594147916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158253178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771551037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585569858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2619371098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156640522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856094922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592697332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241086691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911504873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835825674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607302285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006047834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332083124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803944675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057695552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914561576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417802289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779778001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571684389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719562437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451855426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795094017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548091407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008115927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467539869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769672588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559459471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140117613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713332987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124730484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11151535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351003903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272709703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351681218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008624026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289213699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132377004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760988775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548051412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301584461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848531239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206039058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013308832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229603801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103439534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826850208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188421458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423343515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630925541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5266844535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924225564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30786786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306939978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111930532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286411864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056797427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1651427241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338515279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525535788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428033144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120391655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764295487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963408271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5541811703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479946278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129730593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124740324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979488418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1670608015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627081708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301167899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435381497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796275321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315059416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255044334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734470694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891847122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814976146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058552407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209514343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068124382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292602318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883388141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.50909891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295206696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3285294426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472252333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6034224335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871779365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063497136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334292127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698265304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044887195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991543544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985372491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897729086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058709817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330078654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701334316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4081086421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993063273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318697185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445165837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4265732556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294989509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026317668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959779264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944491883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953836075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088732608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121139867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126640772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039417635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327386428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718184154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526483708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307805259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894400792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848504559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274240445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088535873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471933086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287423771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4435312766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921368411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080056138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018878224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970075406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3192745381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663708729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2407194607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192138643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071958081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360420237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476315246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4104646374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315049544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327473576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575374885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3892523406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323062096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540449794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703658362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4030967807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964869644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081569563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112799187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313477336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000558808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053953134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090858761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142117895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844929253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704077379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549777133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446174798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912553538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358427558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601482937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387525838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110954883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255545198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745563617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687235701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151897149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329051439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449361861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685356283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126295721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040830547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932417591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286566778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899101901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274700504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307921029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406358268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302658961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882828206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712738314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2572001929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746985659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479749772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4107909793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914659445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645603766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418296127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168081807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039419252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745759561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571827428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313877378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067260979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429952879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423467137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538755416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743683469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706929723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3521372633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518085511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111409868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157101498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188301012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131581182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104368147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166261421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946216088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104089431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130699375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833432688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942333325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241753243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681112901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414842333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2429254244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.416672768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4065645164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126609124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912212554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350031121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539865082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692282672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2027287991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4155260439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867360393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030192322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193190747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422185508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868227051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199115073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239568406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507749447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017765107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312251499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897382934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286719365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2678623549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383127742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208476987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054678115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105842065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475526199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.400948436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308190232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325316506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418797171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585175001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971541697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918911863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894290634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263946699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970536974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821562593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630321528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517466766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520150402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2026951582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578228117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281277824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826829562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690287836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550946416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470855768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157459317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199452901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924893182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972226726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433870305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476760389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582336671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563862632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743331799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565764109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4021526916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3940514553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.267797153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3697259776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443557857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273968133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6423398403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6255330165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5837126084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.519938037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224784501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556976544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5829958148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4976423798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132326391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132962206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135021821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140766511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263894132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264475735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266847986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271591609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000786678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100142434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002656637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b2cf6ee0a5b3ab260fde9b7f9119132728d2186d360ede11d2daeb748f9f8b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004936208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988333725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1180280782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611395455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4332681508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000784973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001370276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002931441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007204005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532442754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054763719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584921953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670699541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000693519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000902069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002124987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cf177fcea2454521655b9b1a5056fd9780d75de458e0293856fe92f55b7430e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004137122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999417058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999844433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001138695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004081927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132260601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132847468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113441497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138080682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019801845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1087094591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125298649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484341203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629901501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842669459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164534224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159600063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138824034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258962052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5397430492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4515016498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854590604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112727453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5942525579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4938505177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000680771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001108177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002388417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005586228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000680897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001111841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003011979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6540d67ba213efb81fdf8d939252ad9ea3de3afdc911c2d53adc82f946996f14","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007207699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999365478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999637208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000833521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6785580e4c4831a5468a3d99044a87b81b89aaf3659b8e4c05032abf6d799a87","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003544498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528897965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534177517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548561414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"6797a1d0a791aa20ab4de7d1a465a06b24e6c8100ec1a796c306f47e612923be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586550925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053647334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562013719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064324966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7233fa748a364e7e93f1899c23ff71571fb3e78b55a1bd951648209211af3cc7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793620311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665489464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683222358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744965906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886342212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999534428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000136637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001893531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"777e45ec0e466493a45b8a56e8569b124b04f9f49da990393971011932c7cd13","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006157147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570904377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604414874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685952925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7be763022f7a4e8a84a4c78d8934b9f47dd708514a9373a810892a34a679254e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843634211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997623336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347628526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.554937504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d2d5c43b22024f78ac4b1eb85813305f14440e53280d5a0c638f477130deba7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4852627867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001628919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065993865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270119726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581014484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000652886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001019266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002204909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005043678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000732882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001478793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003286583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d359028f1e19c3ac73dad358d6c28445f5e93362ec41529d08985c0ec857f15","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008197709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999418715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999700867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000928259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003134476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661153084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673830114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758795584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093302501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999414452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099983878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001117914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003907829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000733909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001320759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003044996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"9c4b9ce4cb2cfd34285144f313872a60369b4443302f72822a14baff601239dd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007652432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100078602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002534993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024745324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083421461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000745514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000915832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100267409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"b269220241112843dfc2097270d1f5e70e84fd914090c8b648e19f480d877c86","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005817716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086423295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.106845916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367772864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5452490182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832516677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903200883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029518546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166625842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100073183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001379892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003176076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008460476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540339713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564062697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621713025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731083068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915569488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1496209677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5066052084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"cd6801b8a20588d4cdac5d6f486b2b61e70ded89ed9bb2ecc65f4812fe432586","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109301055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309944283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1493367529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1973532544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713122458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129521081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122362028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1290522416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1590895291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999428905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999699172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000927117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003921951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000680239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000951328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001990559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb0009bb2a47917fdac0432af83e2e6b1a3f6132ac742717517b31f0eb47ebd9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004577261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000733388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001321817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003590798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008557714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132995875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134262336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138337528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147801353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909608277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066462907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6382093606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5692031181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798922961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506203207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842452815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4241145728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149456813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763355887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256016764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236921527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866673589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660574565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428506049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229540166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129669265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757415442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3535208016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373824459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889413145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717198261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622218873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"AMP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.389404091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171961042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352309639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621546619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3867452511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913472684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286221411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514067051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BIIB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467337133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870119137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365763724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621569459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3936280607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885831649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673417423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433559732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234660936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203555012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268413783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470426511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238451054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289954354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719765787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3601248125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315167957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3197602907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684567153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455279899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261881435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927096425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758635472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569089766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387022279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282609417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667157248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2446375002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276668588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902938602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322300877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3580672792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3838780539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865869154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447596138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3763032128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183604035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903886705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725386679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633689508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3953653323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134625309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754855484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560108111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363647219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137238803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769316455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593168286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402075054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903878665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731396971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533786484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"EXR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339759432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891520794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745915106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532815054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"FAST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306921836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905779954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301871344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570261437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842097071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286100359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658831627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3746148783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193574476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291051513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805273781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487551005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493143451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838319482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606288502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352509606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161799556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923592373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752609623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610411731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467348265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904861351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745847058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583012426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"HBAN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363748526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900846609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748134184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2518677123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322573526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890499858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395792485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3699420719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4040143436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856216703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740914154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504868453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289980077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163535734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729437378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252108148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2326803121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315965577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789236649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613850983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451197406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916234834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360910873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3614231059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"JKHY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3919798762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284078134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632588363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2333505213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105845136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990032717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826322446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671080344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480845618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143181507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299348906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531443351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3771421877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288042283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338424346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653217367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258698415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870108916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712055714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465038522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241870075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881950481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803819915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459013701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250459363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842092473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638529552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731868345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019812533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790664792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569072349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314665926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078717481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913567394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536516468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2375969784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877335721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728941774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591149433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302817401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172146075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354681616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599655211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"TFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305169086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100537509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790153856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590441006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2413524411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316455002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721656144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477186338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WELL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2260317374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171773031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743915593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578601896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410481531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839796227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636778606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397481136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4117818263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216961794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713698474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521741027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330149655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539161416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544972342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557787735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"0190eb130973e2998ccae456049f88d6623fb1c71a0e4e922fec631c8043ef68","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572935108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728706408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751951099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080591054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"023bc566dbac68be33a09ac94499134878864a59def5b69d2fda733998005902","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883272934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950686072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987376607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046101362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"05576cdda3e43d8377f5d866b59d2517f8254d11269d5ae52b24e1009fae4843","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112120041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970064464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205961472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089524949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"064b119526fc5987a8e1d67039009fa4f0af5cd1c8270e91573cb6d7dc97f954","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139412316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659049301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053410494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534618724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"09d7cca6b5d49a076a2fc19e67e2a762a74a750e98c0a3721919ea639e58617d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535350659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665220203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666860862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670816997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"166288b941dfa2cb7d898c5c6d42b3562d25e5361e87c79460c66648f383cd90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676530494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660498402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661453625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662865882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"1fc9718e6e011eb37859f6f679577b743028a03486fc9badc2bd8e209bfd52b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066505957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091814216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923855663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934205601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"23afa5789cf87d1a0bf6d8305899cb9142c4dce38bb0de296cdaff6ba1e8596c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949804804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517788199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492050526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2444148633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"242bca3d29ddabba96a8a8f5637bcccf0e80c1a563c1e6ea5cf7a1a2e20c6009","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652845987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787218195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789059292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795273123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806229529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305774207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079627075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455462808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098079341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532783393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533213493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534090754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"2af47fce161b69d4d49e6bd100a15c3b2b38cc34898bb0e74845b9ca0f99ff36","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535692566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657411057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532504532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532819689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"379b4c1e264f3517e1dc254558bade161e6f43db2fa09b6beb68fc694e21450a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533112641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0784212195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535820029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540585918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547970929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657659849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065791809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065828935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"3b5ba83f2d835e354367cb27ef7f26b67ed4db5aeeae7bdabcdcbd25e7906aa0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658768484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4482945279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40870003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430608624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"429af80fb7803624c9174280482661780d57ec9607e04f07b64acd7836e09d84","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885715534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570032037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493627506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4378537603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4466d2be599746035a2d4adebf7f0e0b1efc30400e7a77a48671b9a89a677765","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4354471908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662512247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538637321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541052343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4aea086e5f9bb68f5da49e8247f6500906821467b9ae152e21cb9f26e484caef","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545287418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2954457162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347024184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242491009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"4c61c2a65075e437a0887c02650bd69c2ad0fbfc7d8a42c0489ac4d67b17bd54","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920357594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563011494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576214321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604586461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"5f4f3994b4bb534e32cd7506a44ce2df113c82811e8151b69960beee90b83f09","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644672953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793461066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806928395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819787732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"73c5b09389955ec9b505cee80c1b4619a708e85c499edd95ceda3364c44c6494","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815009793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552309689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056130811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579801976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"781ac2bd844eaa20335c82864fd56dbcadc64052f5842c7ad9d76be8f8cc51a4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604369984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078331095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078406086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785153012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7b22d178be713b7564ebe8fb1ae33270d26df6856613e85c58e30ff73467ed10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787315924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039915066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736833284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793535065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7cbbd2fd74733ef99b47f7402fa72e4e07b1e34143a67289b4cfe7bfc1dc2a0c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879703473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532500026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532504696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053276689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533296136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535210858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535599918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536757243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"7f95e8c3f3b95faf56c12d75bbd6e99786611f0843533064a472fa8c436d470d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538422927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1165377544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1202239577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276726132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"92588436e7341860876acf2472a703cb227604d1302dfbd591114a0844c8dee6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440708053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769394951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739932825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717500655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"93b59c6dc1a9cacc1004322b934ffb6407b27c9a23b6d92d4702c5db0e4396f0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710518798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558373048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571234384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9366583347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"986f8445ffb15ef64918a02c423b550eb199c6576e6371369e6b6c089c76314e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631969114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676498285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680399765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692308939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9a87eea9a86ffb332bb548a138f6ea3119e2497ce1488231c3c7794a6c37eea3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704293372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536149899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536758922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538851085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9aefd8b419366567aaa3db496990a33a29714c732520d422004b383bc02d1272","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541023348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554497107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9961509929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568997418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"9b15d6c3f547d32fc4a0c2945a425d9c5c4627697271790821565ede2400df39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576887333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659658308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535402509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537368439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"a4d69b6c4e9f70800545d19e4c672379f3b05bd110a45a30472dbca6c0187635","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540033025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544647352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542687691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546240921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ab22fb0470d0b76500e83a533b7ea7d266fd8812dea7e752a61f561c09c82905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666431302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537598871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538005026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539319854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541256355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620196393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641510998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674166084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"affb330f45d0ddeeffad1c984daa3750c7a722ad40856a4e5a25668a790c7962","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717723532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468729697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1628001177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1744005206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"b7bb61bfcef3f3492301b52353a9e3c6ef8adbc1d1f1fa9be49332e693e1ba4f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844263434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659373287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067688945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647000329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"c661b5839b0b2fc0d1430828f37e5688123b75f4ef7c9382ea0d061c73dcd378","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664939601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533874073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534165349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534839251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"cd45e95c756cafb484a95658b120d2e9efa6215fc3239e2a0e2523f9dc8faacb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535983051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680968513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716501042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072928888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d057dec75c310bd602515df56ba35332a3a77098702b8ab0b7014ec0a0c608b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764487934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709555086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421793235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631076581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d0ef740071778a8cd8bafbd03b462ba3467d3ce9ba2acdf25c6379fb811d2711","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589256612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606757071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721667614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572094829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"d32c5edd9ce760224ce47a5499466da2669bdf923a3ec871d2f015042cbcdfd4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773729454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001303931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978002946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963941029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dc6a414ef937290e4d65a6b916ef571c8a8a4c93686414610c5f76e39d2b907e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959966955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619304231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621186707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972109757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"dd53143c695a626b216c30499a9bc69c66da8b1b8822ba86860fa9af29251676","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3575806782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097290851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299245618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075941121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092762908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296432325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288230929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920309595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"e8ddc319e13816019564dec167fa4dfefec2f2b3ab6bbd4959eda051239c8005","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082813034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552672745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558757668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571241511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"ec8fd3ac5400f902a068d0ee5553565016604fc02e0399d9e6b67e4dc191bd2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584543843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534700153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535864078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538578799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f02e779aa62e6d0f50d0121cbdea0ee4e67544d1ccb97e6cfdc3d420c9dda767","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544152573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650746556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659008271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662816828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f3bc25088c7a0aa5d788643719f4c1ad5ed2eddde7579ea005bacd2bb86b3435","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670784342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068122257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686255706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698686268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"acled","id":"f4f3220042ae378be5bfdfc48b147bb93bdf7bac9e495194c6052503106bdb9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720949486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4142003026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4819538735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897509319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676757051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4309536971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5003855664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795175817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038351961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338854382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875182097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571297389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774039976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4439811328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820750681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056762043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4402561434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5296948023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786571766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661578239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.375185455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545996713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252868267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030055566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454064651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2374707673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009074988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686097928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239617215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781116322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915634384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678546524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3733901746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4317516273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915097057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668658649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.415981503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4954308919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803294915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660407254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4337588709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5213720293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672266381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545808707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3791354049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389807472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892523904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066624468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012250977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250046859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085026749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921543942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546932659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280048401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0928880706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828834618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4172617224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4779705541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695700433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540921769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744728739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4488221473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090811543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931305818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3928730487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2238245821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711089845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547471686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2319052775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674626158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664345704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550909147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4087854283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5036698934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.087125531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683657459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3884754977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4583630925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874962737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670207629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4837406853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869294718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114314504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614456336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3828999174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4451669149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010843655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686419424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4081700367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107445985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746937623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537947807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4251750848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4933562932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929174079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4422789722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5181839318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861609245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672408101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4164061822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4902882157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980333869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788645627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3878660356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4842206672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.094534014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791468092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4169316674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038790704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953807741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826856143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3781488427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081440328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546158202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4186951898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645758421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823991679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669919633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4741568459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5766003598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785763793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674220083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3668161262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4631780274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752423085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648357906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372625422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4458481484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691343361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547758682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3740536925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829822384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734692812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056922041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3853437921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057941991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754942555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055505909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3527407349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3628356116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734904765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.180091156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998320398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176311848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2341822431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915665154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109903161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2178324504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2325022644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022846119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924902472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5164106728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943215986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200243083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30681204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4918282404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1750292432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160522706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251009334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4897265415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735756891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34086514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728495752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232811132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2217974001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688055359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.396550184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405460474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270199521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.258330744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770966989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4769750865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203036872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561813427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3881023217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6391778141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732192843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3384220481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3627161157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369412762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930290331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163233466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845561829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057215997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101069401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030704391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793575575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052363226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330554825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083363198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896609983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798459593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721635972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100594623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785778199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598321045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898952677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059358084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2751152139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435277278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162234636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063386905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3264447586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721493395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647249165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201341413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625175571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368699314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2149394482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124916606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261874983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757705826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671221349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175192236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2671210975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2414227222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4203507973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297046121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783495255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593708448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468474888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169481029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739546053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2551383774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241848948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296772046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854856109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541680893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4044328788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617181004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320545218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012789868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1772817012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651724362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2371022704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.201931914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CARACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1711197333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231935756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3452322419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748544096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4093547108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561941362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2150126251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1746842732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145568735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063428858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918253312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330653249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623665791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28873555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692536112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511174347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280319548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133157502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322962413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3525747054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585793825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121889173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201519086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3350341854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.350565957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001046986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010967143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118081969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151995344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668413742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759225075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041639117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1534499257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936126908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268024957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342039097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705050473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061585733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168479351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888877687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868854673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3479583579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282527417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940400499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059457426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959413191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144184225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074635659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292587997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916830636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885806209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264852761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970478761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298360777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300083521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263519977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234638957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3547075662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371355595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187115435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084027014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049551312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065920126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118130036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008529689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174037789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201034878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356057826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5921221016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348266189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263909449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205706553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155648946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188300109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982326552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290258536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753906078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531327558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2327222694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014445368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575627313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1825297296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1489263314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670966486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668898092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736297078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300197491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003869851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965944373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055229187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101870857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3290880841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702372573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615638876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927113567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920787038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295819237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423511632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014795471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141406051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906106762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829848862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967392464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314749362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766915366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566599998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2622742613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.375160186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854231102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898590628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317563094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632698045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488709418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725594848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2362241978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1970140522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653565798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.303389183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273068595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447388702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277024359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.41648774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001610511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662912068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208865235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850275762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2740418319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653033111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575561748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568071385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479162998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427326066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2488018154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905627965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055518159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039068131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991537265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085224656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346337193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413210074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688611663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2945122881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287384851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199245633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694019393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252630843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281713646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1360485923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511853256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175846236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535053263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935120733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173333393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09823932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982649927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983925901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05829cc0dbcd637e42685a7d0ae170776a4180717f3c59f98296c4c79b873905","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986627297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983555681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098398045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985088911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988023149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108692074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109561563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111632551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117000463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763038364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7797310374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197614603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5691119025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040480434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051744791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089286815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158588436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108642604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984050694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985355308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988567727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823541685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8105349341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7439657783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089939305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983842807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984354305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986190367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989627834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538160804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549844656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588284168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687356912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983695289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098440128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985993635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990642091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984096154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985140656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989391207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000143945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823042691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105888104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327435295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621810859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939116951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245464879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6229518498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5228780953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108704574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109161068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111809549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117334584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621053253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666603675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768604881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7221cc24a88774591bc4c40046c92d692c12d8bc1b63c39c3f295522e9181c57","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024589135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100338675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256948689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1576932131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055276065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940790698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103238138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416534165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745879988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682272723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809763616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099231549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144941752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550424648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056368898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9521134387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7c17d34e37d8cea481d3933f4e1c2c091bd523c3980043e539cde90fbc08f29a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9047691391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983644784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984213152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985776632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989698083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098359516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983858157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098517214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988107603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984200152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987847121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1002136545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"8e267cf2270bb8977f77685ef6144f3408a464bdb3485506109935728b17b8d2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035932491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982344211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982598833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983270174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984284961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982644172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983603786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985604275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990527692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983646789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984540508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987417597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994891262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982605308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982897694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984432294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986851164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537511312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560290523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645270946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081205383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108654574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109323066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111592552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117202041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983796658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984667147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987412627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7ffdbc93c13b54d6a2ccb3c68ae204e493c5d86bf9915ff278a9ecc9f4b2022","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994846137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904141663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999039459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253786229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559032358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532050205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1426860054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452698831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495498163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983592145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983842737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984947918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987415527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820741367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017334677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270663397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5709030619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983706159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984457164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987040736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992353544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11313909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832003958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5255385483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054000718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141388154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316835429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581182077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822029023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540305777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055344261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608449412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"c846c6eb73a939076d4054972dfb1149cc8b3bac31526882171d6b9ff87a7adb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756505035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008215669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036738981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343708527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958135083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0845291409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7174411147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341035122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5589131251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312235487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1512832944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910427902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460820922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036789481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113463774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5949876676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982976982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983693664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983951251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098595039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989476786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993990523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045001376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151550025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"dd47480f263c9c3b464c70be23fb2e4f08e3f223e44884d74a8dc654be0d2fbf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313997965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107341116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982596448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983710764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986226277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099571085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282727452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5580256265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4680495038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753993067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837841503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008089344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6e3e3769143b8cd7eb46d257e5c5200c3d9ce18883382593eb5850d49097c9e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169737295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983605755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984200127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986184102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990554077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186260308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421381608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698296408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.401854369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175529793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747828627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257011137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386104241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881251439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328502918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577176505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ALLE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835783959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912527623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2709229902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243930987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216914444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112678145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834357511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412566073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360356427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162906316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721831993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631319166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328796495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181661757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381449429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669973177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979675055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083579079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228509892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407089788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"BXP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592368421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944789481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283259554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346166007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652297569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3154270674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785504739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574105189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CAT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392582929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313468928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821691871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632503607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702972564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944208544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750241233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550966665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CFG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2387422982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918840369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753405002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514748183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331434055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292367477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799097922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613470847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457204706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130412348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796464168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262857295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465193803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863522504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405715039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3722311123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4043796388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291094739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716106678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251428006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DDOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2301642923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200016014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681941475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2460374879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224815549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915636988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755146167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616205556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464070547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862173693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363326886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613178445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"EL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898876261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125958175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804189136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264343179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473710323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914586701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729934112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562780044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397423996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964682646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235162726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410654124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362672337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152989921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776718504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607107467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2433885548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201743907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341232926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613652472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2343226175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156320353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334001579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3607868116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3883311646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292384881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775021172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536216624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"GIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750680799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3111615813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287813965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3586075905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836526078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120491823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32506996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3472675852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474999042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313855094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798735116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602080306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2430650109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150320934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792085912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604785788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244130182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894654322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722045046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489823765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2280853879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315724852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719062376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.372888622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042990475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320862364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272520535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527944445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LRCX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.233079199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909184866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755964548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582849885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239772536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161293617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275972777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503123144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703207022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149277271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761318808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3540182659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3831020169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156904211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323958685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3560225847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408082212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931832536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813972958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606309443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2439219212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180089815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331795597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585469009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850611793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958818416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806894688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642858846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"RL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502292546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3221196943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680306584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463632451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"ROST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248878178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191109999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438137525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782320664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4155101768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902957581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779621823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624453905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"STX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484019346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042850714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181748202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425064562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TECH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275537381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899715619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714167138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693360727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038503275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204948105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396316087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366307321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"TYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3985130473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3174302649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766286826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3539114043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"VST","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769653735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090582555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864048397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379717205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"yfinance","id":"WBD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550940821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192499478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061667897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098977491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"036e39099f365726740a0aaea804c6d592f460fa1258a4fbb0da49b0757e58b5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139471108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499876475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500876689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502303285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504861663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501210718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502662795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050579965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"29463a1985c42b6a8ef03bc12ea0e8d3e60486d94302c9f4d004e587418ecebc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511345922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798315374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279673403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3240590467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"36687d3bebf951b40778ba2f114cc2a1d58b1e17c2e6d69e851e1ed1d16f5855","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2660157075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163077939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1251249889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339249838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"3925914cc1615760721c4a0c88f5913cdee37adea9dfb7d96127d643dcd25d5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1491658904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124233116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1809857129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6126503981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"395a02a6c980bcefb445c203100b509005c77df155d8e83e55ebb5e702ff39c3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1615733105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575863866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587351947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608626762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636452957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282216773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857021799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976352634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4702616e60cebe34795f35986ddf402e41abb78c19636d1c27274d77eee1d087","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117225619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500861422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503861503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509861705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516197183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067593454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067977192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687500054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"49dba3f6f7c5ca3332d34d40c12fc0db07347519a039307af49daea8798947f3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696476437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693761364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702595579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718364223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"4e10a3c05f70a996732f487f628cb9dc96919fd86c76bf59021c3c0e2e2b8afd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740803047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672330554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678549551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689220359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708217092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506612182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513270229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526832324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541833255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537864561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534978881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053822107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"6ba82a24a777f0f1b9671c1f9c5b23fafffd492c2ee37ce547bc6ed4cb6b9ebc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539452245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029437657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951131776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901574763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"72c23ee50a06b5c9d1ef531ec24753df8961997d3b62956b0280a31c4b0ab554","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851341745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499599973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501013983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504466674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"7922d89fec0da62c9041945b60d6b0aed454cc352970398a484e2294ee6dda46","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510519383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502994932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504733002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508020219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"81daa5ae248e809e0220f6ab533ab1c210f69c854945ec1888b0f87a68982397","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515214342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688464121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081655285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779554591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"858e212927541060b0462a16825846f1d3370e65b886ea2fa69ae7b9d0747a8e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077795458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250844539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881208621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305745652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"866a5b402fecb18b7986e8af71a9afe6bf5c063184aa80786ea034dbbef7a512","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916475534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723908868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726192218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074029165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"879e9fdee9306f74a9047b846015e46ae252b4bfa2486dde131c23bfc7f13c5c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772665209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631464249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651776424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688743456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748494034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161373246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810941463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501412958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"88f4bdfc91c03430eb4835f2ebb2a1fab70367da6965ce5c825edcda36194bb8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2694284647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561795261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581887982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615721685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646418087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911115511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970787928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049313811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"8c78cf46f01e1f9ebf6b20b1a84836184bc3beafd8b343f0c4e2e334e6d3f1ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092122777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2222716683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261514954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4077074316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"90fbd7e4a651b7b4579a095a7e9ec9352d772d9bc865e1b53b9cf63d26444b38","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937590008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692996826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707880756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733815604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"91cecdff6f69fe6e4497c10723aa6a1949145d904d842944ca802d7e0e1b45fa","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768939183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096160124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183678069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572534122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"99dcc6f0d10b2c69f6a3c24415f4a480567edd3fdb2a54de50caf5ef91c17280","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898425408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507210793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509951479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515538405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9a910d59a8a362d4a7a1abaefcea0d9c7dfc754b16b45705bbe0782e87a35481","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522764555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515193436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525254873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544272279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"9ee79c34058bf67436b96f8a4448fd8252ada80c18363ef7e5977692bdba7714","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565810596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499399639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499420199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499668474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500078937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4411919325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4143660782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578083494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a3ed691a6894bc4df158e723ec8af38d6a76bf6c1691e52dfcd0c7f45678e514","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001054451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666507119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244731492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2381024456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"a5366c3e302d9d95bb7c300127d7cfe784b1e19377165beaaf4d10251c5926ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2457768326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501209418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502294979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505002098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b060a47d1a901e049b86fbd919462dc0c07339380d89770f1ea6097b6dbfd25d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508214047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499595353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500266078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501210431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b1f34345e780ed887155b55c13cf66dad7385e372d0ccc2a1b491a9d65a25d4d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503196885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657515266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666267972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650572549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b2d9e949a3c4b561a37e2ac0cd55f373886141fd1aa1a8b5ae31769657008391","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671866731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671401335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679467891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067736921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b4524a202a4a31343ac57ba108b78fdf8d4429950b8ddce5d7ac4bcc32ad6f8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067927589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537813634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553399783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583070124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"b63ddda26aec0213826adaef41168da6571da7967d268409774a1dc175a2ac43","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620342571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502543632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742986987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564915742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472939099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506610689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511629399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520332806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538270952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510143547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515281096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530487309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"bfd10ce5aa0a9eb424cb0845571df5066963afe119873ff64e40422bd966633d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549369141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083241374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668201946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669829384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c4e0becb3fe93bd312bb9cae26fe5612219922b6e40e1abd8e772a239661bd59","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671799504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515027408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527558829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547465635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"c600ea7a4413975bf8436567cd07a70aa86963753a2f8f4f82f8a67f2ceea6b8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578001848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657279069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0690597969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704774068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"cb737cca335d5f2a43f31c04cc8ba5dae13ec02c624688bc1cfac88764c43cb1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699727366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4644327623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4564531065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4518653411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1953862809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565401079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616021433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705632059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"d5a15063d443ccf76cea5539dec00008b2c8ef32ef25567d128b1b47a38b6bfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4133564711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176944022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939529695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150677838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"e431aa63463af7737cc8c294491d1f06b4ead070fde995309fce29e752c91a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022476275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696929353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545017644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569577456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f08272e8551c9790027c5e9a93524507eabc78aa9ac56da6d774e76b1756a557","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598447884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151625859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191863474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268131341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f1eb0a74473dfd4b437cafc242f6ec4608d960b28e274a7dda1b19f2fcb23c28","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298808222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507496048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511078073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523002963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"f551133a53c309346f0b7da41b8482e42cba39f322cb1b2aef63148868e24e94","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526683149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504744129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511426896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524554481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539309464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321827492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174749597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691033114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530526849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045895526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1556142495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615059441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512359389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2410937403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725726881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552459003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3906179281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275577274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696493064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532792865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890629757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605568748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772751931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799211395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705077313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223947901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109076055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005896174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150962721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184240082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716454406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565746429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336548945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120426708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162931938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727996832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258897745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663251468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533543537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3704080509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310403226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806859241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720660846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866720833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107298035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104208999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752677736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309301503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2158998541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854448119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748743709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917846696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330715629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640745411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525611482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201446524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780902385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884468199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781161269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3316456294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1931049137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622678861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051062671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3311433996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168984731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064834135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526032818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031678417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997104399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676672301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532209528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600095569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376166271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606059378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527026158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125691173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1976524515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638998983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510978713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3723971138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.238187087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070035823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547292967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924717009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963507243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837104925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585499901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242176176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924729032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717210587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523142798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066191048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052191344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0786680118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056881045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276835182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1950773613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910670023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944130408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693733144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823579449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524093471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392471492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2020176804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676536914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519376105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775272972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1583341193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595259302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520209444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330045716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672411734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632406838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553828346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.395228624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1266665817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063879294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057354315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503743648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508002506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665894345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563943083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555735386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196714524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661151694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552815005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748636837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1637558715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637126262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528208833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4002985939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477330079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582459213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051535941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379799669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1363542321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678726552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568893784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937682675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3982186986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179294038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392904771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818481841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4708354731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102282833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4171828312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322288712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530395045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668266133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654861906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484798856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485020212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3852954366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335888141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491139466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3618979714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438529229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1538677464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467689403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808797134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397207575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453870095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578656879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681940896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398609245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288528558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977902703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910608826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4584922033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2318138017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3407212299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4681005685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874972618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972245272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184136575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413945679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1749396168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349664578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179270379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735993154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811951823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826913845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1503879416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286744564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844677963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882691955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1663882775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376414098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131886704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4103828455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645794541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1449243473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476155063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3869900715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1963624616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4981675146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917265727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787274757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454108821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496704395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898641382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634537688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2306584666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.436876325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095537369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661041161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818599725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4302032412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948963089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860742125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720225289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590215408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875585522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584656727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2358029934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985733243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166200125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397512804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477925577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3937230566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937135609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037711924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973502982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973600206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204070367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2698917773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604401605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500736081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158623222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688162252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458333881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2281376408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001629799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138557412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357119353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519595256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216173417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647531194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453717116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983067595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674148841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722355796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099231026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431655999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015795218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31068039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819847364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273019774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120894755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058337367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007834149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367212429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140461895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381314056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521021223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402284738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293506691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305109415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182151657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133309562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041516584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923693345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900967787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863886878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697746394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862397979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229140565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173601518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302413435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942064626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885947913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886632973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451759736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517364917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784456925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143862403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903470214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048712354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3027042522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684141459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2168302272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636411084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420168513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801808319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268907009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603921525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2588206747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696427418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078223126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848308782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057005997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130995651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12225081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926069079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823269017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810597807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4282087561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649449681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552480406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3850647295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4025329547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467788816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198760259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755471782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352346138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3009671929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081793511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053678979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108481686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920181214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123089474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205701913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338800269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148570088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297464445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272987436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102568379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994205104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982320701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7664869559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7024861241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6240456073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199891051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654419202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834494708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.210871292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2472541872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271198795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2959500183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253489463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001423157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107246021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4538568507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2624653802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134285298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774646822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467311229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2195191604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947077911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101872038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322899176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613618516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897527135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190009987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413231735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450714992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216396719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001754583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171814304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263828617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435540846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985663254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932291268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646577759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TMBACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463769625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251274227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789177476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432244717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209336307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158830512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266420562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338838586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733146574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3337078344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172124241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948195195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823690548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990728491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968827101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202944061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254057245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010254708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189224234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3361863413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499244564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583741007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545114441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4036206851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179290406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2532377125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903443762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249633713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3995094364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564534884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241501525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224973499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1947451256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938944295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183149265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080530329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826139964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574888193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2077918697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2330156768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264355919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100734177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101489524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103783551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108011614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811365616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959654999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124804847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5359734257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09906634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117862957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387198173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1685604374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100799511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101739517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104235535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109939594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1772647535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1811327806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868096203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"20efdec28913ecfb1e3a3e26ad2c99e1b4d7ad3f43b5a6202c46f9c277c17406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972842935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100748204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101200287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102404015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"228f58f43e797536b588717941b28dbd1e4eb5b91fdbf8a85e983bdae81a5806","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104743192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110075551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103329548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1109977735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124924339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110068951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101515516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110453487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111264626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099198866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099750623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102768464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110876658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511759385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532886866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c37fef353460bfd130fde0117638badaee913ee8c79b8cdf4c35e2c5710126a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058833192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114241954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416019364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5281025402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4332621397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267482036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274041629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298884409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dafe704f93a6fbc6b0165298e12bd3a175f63592ce7b7684cf664edd64f5395","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344566542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890413366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965698559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051087823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"50ff16043ba629140f82ada741c6f24245bb98b8eefd7d55aac10f750d2d43ad","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8294279806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923826816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098150651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344970276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5452de11a0b8b0c855feb8d52ee116aa4b1ac3b7e719039ab35667c34cf2552b","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574799485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853592466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024142114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215217997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458556295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100798877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101336454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103165527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107806226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673750518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069689668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074890371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5ca04a3a78c7ffe5817f080f95e883a83edd6a1471caba48d435448a2d879b52","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897478082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100938212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110150797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103981208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d3843b63337bfacb27814102cd56f9d2bc77974d84c80d81aa0bdb2a0e057d9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110412058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100999512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101819518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106313569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115930443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517394091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573513817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074034965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"72a33a32e409997da4782833a3893e503ff84ad71005d422f9c2e00dd193350a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100734177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101677517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103664197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108046895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891006557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7034971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386238468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1692287478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100798211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101333681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103615397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108619359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101947519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107266242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128282529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"975d02beef1ceddee5c08e950f851f87e0544a43acf3a0b2d21c2e2eac16c3c5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193280817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920862246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176396699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1675400189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a1c131d5c2ad476fc579b30b72ea6762e3b6324b0252a57c10c890436604f44f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297271204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100752177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101502182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103706864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108706919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021862285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237597127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985753409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697915812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099863691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101197267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105264808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113333938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517548759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552627004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680653233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955403821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100615676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101737144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105101467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110593746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1289097863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7866510148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6876036556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6037097356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701260043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727793562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799860733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933928337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520676781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560729061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067935989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c90a910e5ea0ef3bdaedf23ce591e20a8da2df5b88c5b04e6264761959ddfcc0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880261295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109933218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100416883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103677057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111580333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099414828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101016172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106219542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119013631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0916796217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140663116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1490665563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009993793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526463488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585068564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726346219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039679077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100398915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100603043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100967685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102142193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101601516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105159561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120608476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154222544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100815677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101418348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104296202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111802274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099132199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099554902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101563689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"f085362f8814ffa84888e2c01d4588fd1da934aaa8a0008cef17e62f2c118b2d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106073574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101564822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5666028094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4688821261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899815744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747394366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092427827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1284930792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801978169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100732843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101483042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103357028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11087769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811625959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657752691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3678420441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2188883272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198642287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664206861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3659356879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3904507988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844801802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691828352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454113066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272640149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288670771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768590943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411961102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533130094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820380546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.341829732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379082513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AVGO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124791191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127801335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270327954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360724414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845806315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667736153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3642221465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2239493565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854220624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2772296579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617849734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BWA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463193743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2870902511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272941072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578353723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3865926672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119203071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206633552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645650031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519712925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3128735192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292450691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534753798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125995491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249121362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513274948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2398355986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324415722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257816608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771233682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753284012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733754023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506815206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929411388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012238756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822052337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623767523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23822061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2164329768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171617041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387713737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667642248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3992740051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836112542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670428248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400730951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2184776894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311546458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360242951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2418425839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ELV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2211275594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829326212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746879859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568650782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352002718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844181183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330013349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552038516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EMR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269081498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158395408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365931097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656821281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FDS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221845941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879315451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699175337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2470980596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.224217779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844712522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724023278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3485497339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701788231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.279873749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408966554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3666627754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286395175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265858895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546371856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176533052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3368890127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3656921413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3960318218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315496077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325554805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3641639219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"INTU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.395603952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881715888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703199934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477964363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2273919666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897202263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241388434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484222513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LKQ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728565717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768229429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607711244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2367313421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130273863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292558202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3531874791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3898043485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4231316102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814825741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615230885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2350820481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141875764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201043898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3408479195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769796946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4147885154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852275292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270654348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3544112614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"OTIS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3829931696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108328436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267522594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561147324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PNR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3841874123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315376165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317911371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3554512342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3829705426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857491137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710821886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483908196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307851139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792911689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443517146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.379277483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134262401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861937325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683225181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431239375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2206921245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283116193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270069674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562461621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2447940562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860125704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299348373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550346179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SYF","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332828565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866129376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695683413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2425414663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223618271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283109592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691206139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2466417655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TRV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.227432795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820380406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263838768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736580215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TSCO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4073514475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790936732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260170729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2352617854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161587949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903966547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750562538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3563170371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3837808813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846042334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367250823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3651499424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926866959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894665797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765076241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2626300178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437887181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798797768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440969454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805930855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4206835551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837612455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661005886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.362456549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"0900cdc6b82b0d8f3edc8b127bcfb5e8825c73675117766a6b6825c15bf1e313","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714077622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"0900cdc6b82b0d8f3edc8b127bcfb5e8825c73675117766a6b6825c15bf1e313","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727515854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"0900cdc6b82b0d8f3edc8b127bcfb5e8825c73675117766a6b6825c15bf1e313","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0749532916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1a56771b436fcab5dc062f3452ae0187f665f8360d1b887b020934d1ae962f36","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809004885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1a56771b436fcab5dc062f3452ae0187f665f8360d1b887b020934d1ae962f36","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672509371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1a56771b436fcab5dc062f3452ae0187f665f8360d1b887b020934d1ae962f36","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676570885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1aa2b7813366a35974ba3d8f1bd174961e5060c885fe9c485f024451705b807b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529632284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1aa2b7813366a35974ba3d8f1bd174961e5060c885fe9c485f024451705b807b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533272495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1aa2b7813366a35974ba3d8f1bd174961e5060c885fe9c485f024451705b807b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054010011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1ed503b8acda7e7392e27d1323136d655a202d32f29fff36f8b6806b5a132ffc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.409136912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1ed503b8acda7e7392e27d1323136d655a202d32f29fff36f8b6806b5a132ffc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4164689119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1ed503b8acda7e7392e27d1323136d655a202d32f29fff36f8b6806b5a132ffc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854388698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1f61ae208f3069be105c56cea6d5912f98fbc7c1031bdd485976fc43bf3d1a17","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818008561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1f61ae208f3069be105c56cea6d5912f98fbc7c1031bdd485976fc43bf3d1a17","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834355526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"1f61ae208f3069be105c56cea6d5912f98fbc7c1031bdd485976fc43bf3d1a17","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819688415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066452386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667806107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2583aba178bce6e547ab9cca2d678483e5cd58b0bde5a8130d480f6f22fb9d18","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673933033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2af0b2458554bb8361fff419f07cc1f95db0e543efdd4dae2660a6e77efcafaa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671952876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2af0b2458554bb8361fff419f07cc1f95db0e543efdd4dae2660a6e77efcafaa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681421148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2af0b2458554bb8361fff419f07cc1f95db0e543efdd4dae2660a6e77efcafaa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697907807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534742995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542282938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557574844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557729626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569298089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592178604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544978273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558989833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"36d9eb224f6555d519de9205b8d4157d55bd732a0e08f433b0405736742e7593","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581334664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"38ff5228437fd8763271af4ca6099aacb9de90151e0fa128701ef712a5c04d5d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417130167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"38ff5228437fd8763271af4ca6099aacb9de90151e0fa128701ef712a5c04d5d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392752019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"38ff5228437fd8763271af4ca6099aacb9de90151e0fa128701ef712a5c04d5d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.387215134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525842963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528845868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"392c79e1aeaece40f8ba2c8fcadb8e2b5568a9438b0123a0b0f9315865049215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053601993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"449a42d89a7e34cae0134aa10543dba701bbe44609292c8f5368c19e617ea34f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839947144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"449a42d89a7e34cae0134aa10543dba701bbe44609292c8f5368c19e617ea34f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089127731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"449a42d89a7e34cae0134aa10543dba701bbe44609292c8f5368c19e617ea34f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091109716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"47cbb9efa562d8ebbc7187bd46c3f01af288e2536c0bd1391d04c7c0cc75cbfe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896763563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"47cbb9efa562d8ebbc7187bd46c3f01af288e2536c0bd1391d04c7c0cc75cbfe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964718603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"47cbb9efa562d8ebbc7187bd46c3f01af288e2536c0bd1391d04c7c0cc75cbfe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071957789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530006726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538136681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"4940d17de83bf8e1a4992fdf8fd7296279f28fb4ef3934dbd0aff74632b39538","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558652753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541632543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055218478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"519689a520e7e15fe54f6d85ad40f6e0186b5b1ce657e41144abfe398812749c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568201547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"51df72b9345a4f8da093d22d124ecf7fcf7602d9efbec28eddd5cc6bc988dcfd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126319533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"51df72b9345a4f8da093d22d124ecf7fcf7602d9efbec28eddd5cc6bc988dcfd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128140562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"51df72b9345a4f8da093d22d124ecf7fcf7602d9efbec28eddd5cc6bc988dcfd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313553598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"5e9a82e018096684f5ba46a6c95f12d02bae13fcabd3c0ef08ff9d60a1d4d386","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3965661741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"5e9a82e018096684f5ba46a6c95f12d02bae13fcabd3c0ef08ff9d60a1d4d386","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210270072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"5e9a82e018096684f5ba46a6c95f12d02bae13fcabd3c0ef08ff9d60a1d4d386","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4088349699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"763a7f7b7266cef17a4053d6138374b6a6c5b7df444d0e7ffd8839157ab57755","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528465432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"763a7f7b7266cef17a4053d6138374b6a6c5b7df444d0e7ffd8839157ab57755","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529288265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"763a7f7b7266cef17a4053d6138374b6a6c5b7df444d0e7ffd8839157ab57755","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531949822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"766ce1a9273e1b1e5b4229371c1e6d9a445686f0891dbe4b6e29d39d3841b0a6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.151482918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"766ce1a9273e1b1e5b4229371c1e6d9a445686f0891dbe4b6e29d39d3841b0a6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502665383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"766ce1a9273e1b1e5b4229371c1e6d9a445686f0891dbe4b6e29d39d3841b0a6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578095366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7a3596bc8f53ccdf32a1f21d21d9cb6f6ddbece50ff85e68597551ad5df64541","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846288917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7a3596bc8f53ccdf32a1f21d21d9cb6f6ddbece50ff85e68597551ad5df64541","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897182975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7a3596bc8f53ccdf32a1f21d21d9cb6f6ddbece50ff85e68597551ad5df64541","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1992965581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7dc0bf3e5a6c826a6f5bf12b535b3bf2dde59b126fd97b003d377dec7e81ff63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544353972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7dc0bf3e5a6c826a6f5bf12b535b3bf2dde59b126fd97b003d377dec7e81ff63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555157779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"7dc0bf3e5a6c826a6f5bf12b535b3bf2dde59b126fd97b003d377dec7e81ff63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573241109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"809a3ed782ec66c97a59aaa5b6d70cfba894c96806264c73ff7df316b620daa6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728441926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"809a3ed782ec66c97a59aaa5b6d70cfba894c96806264c73ff7df316b620daa6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568220921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"809a3ed782ec66c97a59aaa5b6d70cfba894c96806264c73ff7df316b620daa6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412999877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8815b1dc55ad459b6ad65ccdc75cab489166e5502b9b150e3b236e1244918835","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523771401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8815b1dc55ad459b6ad65ccdc75cab489166e5502b9b150e3b236e1244918835","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524545539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8815b1dc55ad459b6ad65ccdc75cab489166e5502b9b150e3b236e1244918835","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526828194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964016763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558466226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"8b56675445d40bd91c56891f00ec8aacc9d6106c9e1535a046d4d085b8c3dc20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057823496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551785716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560071292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9043472375a02690dfb338bd3d11605105562e5cae9672a989961b0c5bef9b51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574771208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736368759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597069544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9127732d9421311419209f0e16a68dbce070c15a210bdf238391de73b190626a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059912984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"93c4936bb09ba069554d834be7be6bd8deae96635c82deb20b0c3eaac5f26af7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4759013742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"93c4936bb09ba069554d834be7be6bd8deae96635c82deb20b0c3eaac5f26af7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4637609664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"93c4936bb09ba069554d834be7be6bd8deae96635c82deb20b0c3eaac5f26af7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302497766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9ac2b19e1f2f845a5e24ce92ef09575502b5bf3153ace71ab060599ce32b86ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005528477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9ac2b19e1f2f845a5e24ce92ef09575502b5bf3153ace71ab060599ce32b86ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988930825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"9ac2b19e1f2f845a5e24ce92ef09575502b5bf3153ace71ab060599ce32b86ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3100716643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a0ed9ec4cabebf77d79553928a05808906cbb7d0bcbe3117323677d50a512b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752371327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a0ed9ec4cabebf77d79553928a05808906cbb7d0bcbe3117323677d50a512b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5182549723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a0ed9ec4cabebf77d79553928a05808906cbb7d0bcbe3117323677d50a512b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869184328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3966b601ac3d17545b4a9a614e50110eb0801d1e5eacf839caea1769d45511e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525809891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3966b601ac3d17545b4a9a614e50110eb0801d1e5eacf839caea1769d45511e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528125868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3966b601ac3d17545b4a9a614e50110eb0801d1e5eacf839caea1769d45511e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533371278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3fcfd23d4aa63846042eb149e55fad879035b1d9b4af8087a3fbe1948de6c44","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563519244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3fcfd23d4aa63846042eb149e55fad879035b1d9b4af8087a3fbe1948de6c44","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580006896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a3fcfd23d4aa63846042eb149e55fad879035b1d9b4af8087a3fbe1948de6c44","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606587805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3779955929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318055548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a6dc4f712f75ec5810e66a3e7e09ac7835c1efc1141d53547d0f52d9d33190ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790832885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a93a4eaa5992258d3150c5055ba00c18ff7508c1a29439ab4feeb4952551fdc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192351937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a93a4eaa5992258d3150c5055ba00c18ff7508c1a29439ab4feeb4952551fdc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075193321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"a93a4eaa5992258d3150c5055ba00c18ff7508c1a29439ab4feeb4952551fdc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147521661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526731262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527680243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ac347d4fd5553ae079912547f5317e0888a6e243c528223cfa8fa601897be215","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530258624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b1b04e5214572a74630ac8307c4be6e7c2e92abcceb3c246bebb05dd52a2ee97","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528512293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b1b04e5214572a74630ac8307c4be6e7c2e92abcceb3c246bebb05dd52a2ee97","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530923208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b1b04e5214572a74630ac8307c4be6e7c2e92abcceb3c246bebb05dd52a2ee97","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053480515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536076291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054276009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"b7117581b74f845358760575c9ef5d47d3bdc27b054963ff8c5efcff7f23042b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553362087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532355036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539716091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055043101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548812139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554009338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb2ea8402975f456a7e4f5bfe1cbe412bfefd23f9712930022a0a24ca46ed05b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567315465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb75f827e4e1e34156e9b6baa76d39df16441e69b146bd27f34af0153bc383f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0741862334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb75f827e4e1e34156e9b6baa76d39df16441e69b146bd27f34af0153bc383f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744600091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"bb75f827e4e1e34156e9b6baa76d39df16441e69b146bd27f34af0153bc383f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811352917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c6eb7c69db3959a8d7116525bba5ab0e772efa6f8eee5abf7d4f2ce52c53a0bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369973303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c6eb7c69db3959a8d7116525bba5ab0e772efa6f8eee5abf7d4f2ce52c53a0bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2263453001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c6eb7c69db3959a8d7116525bba5ab0e772efa6f8eee5abf7d4f2ce52c53a0bf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3822210609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c70ccc814315f3ef10e884b1aa01255ce5edd19571787c009b71deaa0affc867","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799963609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c70ccc814315f3ef10e884b1aa01255ce5edd19571787c009b71deaa0affc867","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661898591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c70ccc814315f3ef10e884b1aa01255ce5edd19571787c009b71deaa0affc867","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663515373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8a85e04515dc23ced123bb99918b83dd959726efb25259e09b26c1461ef9523","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560397628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8a85e04515dc23ced123bb99918b83dd959726efb25259e09b26c1461ef9523","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572970333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8a85e04515dc23ced123bb99918b83dd959726efb25259e09b26c1461ef9523","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059659802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662785723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663792393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"c8cce97d5978df9dea5943b3467189646d06ea57e4ad23b1251b1bddd1fbd530","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666312491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ca08f8a82942d562983e051638ccf3194252d2a5c29499bec2911edf1879d6b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093912918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ca08f8a82942d562983e051638ccf3194252d2a5c29499bec2911edf1879d6b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661366895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ca08f8a82942d562983e051638ccf3194252d2a5c29499bec2911edf1879d6b9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661952485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"e05b7f0980bd857aeda7589b5f9a3bf2b9515215e01e45f1638e44102acc2d10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325921787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"e05b7f0980bd857aeda7589b5f9a3bf2b9515215e01e45f1638e44102acc2d10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406685063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"e05b7f0980bd857aeda7589b5f9a3bf2b9515215e01e45f1638e44102acc2d10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192055005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105838181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110370708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"ed0d14ec9edc1c0e2c3e74388b2e26f87b1b9bef77d52ff821a94060a1e5edcb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086166741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525285151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526185749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529274531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f50a1232df6cca8740c279ce80b66c89207e4c6e7b3c25f80a3a9a0351ed8700","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682561706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f50a1232df6cca8740c279ce80b66c89207e4c6e7b3c25f80a3a9a0351ed8700","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06877961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"f50a1232df6cca8740c279ce80b66c89207e4c6e7b3c25f80a3a9a0351ed8700","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070061103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"fbb7d62449a13d3cb968f249443120fd3bd2bcb5e39693b08c995110ceaa27ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3536646666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"fbb7d62449a13d3cb968f249443120fd3bd2bcb5e39693b08c995110ceaa27ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309408392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"acled","id":"fbb7d62449a13d3cb968f249443120fd3bd2bcb5e39693b08c995110ceaa27ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873122816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545693729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663781815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569688086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289365514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398339168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647393051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575341376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3513414341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1999837938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666539311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568113098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467064599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816998146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643021792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547519365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122693326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2363312142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066357006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543729394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162920131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1929535786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650430211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542784401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418523536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058737088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820418959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693637722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046884587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662002117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646911465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543896198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324344805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1700554358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637393127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054785714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182419883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912738645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674906731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538076103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3969365726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794972293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669400749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541686076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3908087992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1944929647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720450377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659009096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299272327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.158577271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605124483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543866615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679214391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465619513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631518172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551119893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486584831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1751022362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645346824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542858845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445177863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1917926223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065251579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551743777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3470899902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178443048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08136079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071941306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564077387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229167781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661462389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058606185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102116722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182649512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0699825259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587894064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248997774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960574424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670322085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557603177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728011026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135799948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843751816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725365237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34082432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699046196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626564638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557470401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3633145014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006447711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0706871197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544908829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877339712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511264143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620962696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540968859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241343094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545663498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686360962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552818214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448708209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862891148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662828809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572811395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440250339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1241935961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775572633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697754891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2573106103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309608007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622648802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539672758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483736651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300278704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656684647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563964796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480390092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117767269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614789965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539173317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029008432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616498384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639282002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544145502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608105901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1293692154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613171089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536186673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719440216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316801867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671781755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563352578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491854325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1342221108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765947706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683642776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4285365425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4309754129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326092876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618905673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613703859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247160142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688035761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311582647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489879059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309878748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3893827133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.222390599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606314069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492175757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2531591539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021663673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191217941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005618221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406623691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098977256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910989228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550483361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807450588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2776517057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721691433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754112755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281780105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4721531484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226769946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3510537975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014762435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1122293096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1446540672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249817733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4222370181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116833354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906279974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153280479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961700426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864722512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619482707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139137275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090917169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049778884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764961603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3534098082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.437642295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1906071299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130199308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704321695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4592294009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1904621742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532862578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082225859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630124276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4009942292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922141837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983981809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862061479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758771908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721060729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059148156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674572506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393782964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1927767856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039007426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.298036262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921260521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895781105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898231274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897727901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3726933521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4236068468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939151898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857125044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552303551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3927816871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137069082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773615581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675160969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578210398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290038971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055597607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942199383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900370506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899095705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434638846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540990531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CASACBW027SBOG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270879024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251090781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609119126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392532633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4182658786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073974915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992027591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294831627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923562772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811913276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2630713566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2436770912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284260295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030160492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2996981302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988714656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024496964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042200798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224098525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171414737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2372175486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920284469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858533016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2823435594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.280648677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031167657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311400698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146341354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145352075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006762676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898076392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798032828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739620327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071689114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034285665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017665753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301963002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923124352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825019374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729252746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603659574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136683281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147744886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318833412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381161702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483362298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393918438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329937681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246604687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064609181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990767213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902756534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857273479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3370246288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249069743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317901238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130485852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4288142937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070247815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855018661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3660736683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874896207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127631225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091502821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943419918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301847416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234729468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704468624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385853429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745919328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444517695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422694413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2261353524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2213375745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860647946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935935358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046778545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782325877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250447565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194560938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1910849937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300117275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071631377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951595763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846393261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316472466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310322856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.307573729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265262501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482926481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863649096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251905111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2274255292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2458741224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784133725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114049133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191461365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2283290493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492891242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270398823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056908531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099066592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980215531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFRINDEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963448451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2948357258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614712625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4125682346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4623403292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956189046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140788442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399297337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652126226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892701714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668448416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426549097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210111439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036305584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929060361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283847323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461358748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409245561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242234625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305420195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886009163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2241329336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933498681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1585570691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328368202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506608745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3913159594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672318672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344500707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738581581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034606471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4074057488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317375861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323984474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3379619839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675584331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753591874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4275178107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4179239152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408265981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986065039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003656597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122656023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4228677824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4247451644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3594015298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845715239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.426628009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.440461791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320326858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078186883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271180202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231079449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7903832069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080559274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116882319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218270695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023132431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023794798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026508644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103337012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102190634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022860283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026345879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"0802b5b12af1b6cb6e4fe0b9a0e0d3823118535bf951137614e499af0cf329d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033145133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029116819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053153303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107809555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195723332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814823654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008717454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379215567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.500991681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023407429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024501876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030461392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"16dd2567084591088af911d551c22e004d2dba82db5d31be3f51de8f8b3dd607","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046896128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023614644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102942295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053367329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1123501102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021838685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022452431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024590192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029732375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724281356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884724582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138111547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465664615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023117437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023736354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026295925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031506529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102316972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023617566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024974584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d3ba574c5379ea8bfe688f6466fd7e65bc185c9f7e6726ce58dd3737766d704","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028059083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023020343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023314446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024502676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027546548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023116876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102434705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028449607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fba64d43aa5d7177f38979d8c93d10e579c21c66e539f37e088c4d9f791424d","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103610066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025784072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034458451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060994916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"2fd624728544e09f5ac4a2841c706374ad25753f2246b21ce97d47963b5a9ac9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110197337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095085762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216780949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466398498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1678435221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023061959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024295194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026687865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030932611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021839102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022627985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026532972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5001e35cea5c847a7b407ddb855e22f92b1a64ec7b26bbd8778aa5e6d98950d6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033427481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102189424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022524097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102541963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031951803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376525859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649218777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1930298932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4720193659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023005304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024627625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028612428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037646549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105401528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6808159415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5738553269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4562898855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023089092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023425895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025054633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102974682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888891773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980692742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182035658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378107107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975891668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145778155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475720094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951494259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238639817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5876452966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4755189516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3864478446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004121873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1188354404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1522181968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036685258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078594811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850391509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989612674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067834303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104668467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227555312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578552647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2015271552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816447878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0899557803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088334147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1405609515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531207822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551288781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617427723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"926083f9ae268e48beea5516d8b48024d0a4d5ae7b5ef0c7d18f205dfc831b90","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760073306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023282485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023843092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102532442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"930ea4acda0c9fb95d69c7508977db0f93ec23432b421cc6c38c4bf8bf48aed6","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028397408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791114737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926502043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297888111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634441111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092789715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330796445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171085272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250852364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021839658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102264354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026956841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043214512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023226319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023507445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024969773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a6b56a1a459b72ebfc6fcae606a89899f1f08a97f4ca1881dbe33f3485e2c1d1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028817938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530729493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559855382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067996447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b2d7953344ca7b2fd37c2ef0d9664053da9a26d774fcd4c6e315e74340bd6bf0","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949696311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102311467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102373081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026250486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031815183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023009093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023632977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102486408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026592956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081872256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033278518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6112492341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5471731801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906406084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991334884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181444551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452609159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960280119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167777988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671829716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d4fd9e41e71c3e5a2992b9c8b36ff655eb7265b7a46a434484f1267eabd59b92","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143729555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054519216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598628421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730723529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d563befa9ded6fdc765857663fceeb546cd5b983b2de7850615c037880a25390","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959185128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526395637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540729972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594951227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"d8ef6ba516706b350a1a40149914034def70217a6152904b4b7be5b9c4c64ce5","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771128223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893891179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103566788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297721446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605330221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102200744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022750851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025577668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032250406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072779821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234726924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1630774116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328814864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792635686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6967492563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162445806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4590020022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125580141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333348573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3624302945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293578079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29451542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228302711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459013279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3709204059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909941427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232891157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338509183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890536521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280959575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491762209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438068454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127502539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320316559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3580953531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.385095832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947039151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271039775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3476761117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692102642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863439724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396449075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703168821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CMG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4035096157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786904573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498127633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3836759944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTAS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132285612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133315933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271303112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468226914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CTSH","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676377465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026480599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871994633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663930201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138203666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2781236311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656076718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3667338012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881019245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360808029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597530211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EFX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3890025071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924062646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278271971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492863007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765350167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196010839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2691680156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2475572938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ETR","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284524114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156003024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806911478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424430401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EVRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499063876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912973938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2755809145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3490777621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888008456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733581661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514263095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323227968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910897423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283138946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592404607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FTV","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2416704763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898896797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346181644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543472793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168977442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399349481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456561034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2257304491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881747762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363150163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3623609569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863052802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853357255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423082879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712160144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4070461031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145221204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323207242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625479437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2299118954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305207624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222027587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3405579417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820049733},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515946041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3858370354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4216088489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144345657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326594154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591544603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ITW","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3873801468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904018716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779283694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584040818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"JBL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389655578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113681672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243485054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451522764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490371029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910780502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241663711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417586928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KVUE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247546305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292452513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32931212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.34762586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LVS","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3679364602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118498663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782347891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633832318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435682799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177035081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388440208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3690640567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874709904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3412803791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764405813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MCD","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4110016964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119495953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295432942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MDT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555048245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896504478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318020531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354346703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818116925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884494094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689816119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2424278987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MSCI","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2204891764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918527864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771242978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594411688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155712526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275691477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635280527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NUE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483078742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950695012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830629478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454700014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.366028932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153728877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331329673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533481942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284943177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3417657315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403303897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ROK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2190069725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947061755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275168971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599912242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RTX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2275981762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943891952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295512521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565553511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SNA","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332938897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098809231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767210056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514556586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"SRE","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3764385497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150029592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305539825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608004948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453397524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238810782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409924253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715640054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4030810154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864030908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654471388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3757722636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4131892027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853062567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674562281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.367529427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VRSK","horizon":180.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216973207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841400149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383425064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669525051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"03711ac82da1400cf7d3484c97203d9d904de557286a5b234cdc14e12e0912eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541782401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"03711ac82da1400cf7d3484c97203d9d904de557286a5b234cdc14e12e0912eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543465299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"03711ac82da1400cf7d3484c97203d9d904de557286a5b234cdc14e12e0912eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547707389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676200274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676691393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"0bdb5b24d2ed896f7d00f5ebd49b95d8b2ba783f0ad922d96901e3066d4c55eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677806979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544603529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055176983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561544662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2820246154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.369896837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"27debab58f74725ea6b0b5962c22da5c0abc0933ea10b5ed390d749cb966bf3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3648990972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2834d888f18f82dd885fb1ca66ff5530aa87298b5d64f975d49108788122c6e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539504607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2834d888f18f82dd885fb1ca66ff5530aa87298b5d64f975d49108788122c6e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542146837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2834d888f18f82dd885fb1ca66ff5530aa87298b5d64f975d49108788122c6e8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546455226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2a6fb8d31ed0c3c8a3979ed45193095eed13b2ab6ec2c8027c26e91fa86bd717","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535692408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2a6fb8d31ed0c3c8a3979ed45193095eed13b2ab6ec2c8027c26e91fa86bd717","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535695186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"2a6fb8d31ed0c3c8a3979ed45193095eed13b2ab6ec2c8027c26e91fa86bd717","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535875185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774885571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606770737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"32b257cefcf4fdf2fd5d459610eef4812a23d974658034eb911e3d32a97e3ddb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747911887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3446383621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777499256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406883366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"342d47368fb7d67239fb78f58656f6ab39818d985bfc6c43abdd731aaff3b681","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179847806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"342d47368fb7d67239fb78f58656f6ab39818d985bfc6c43abdd731aaff3b681","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358999224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"342d47368fb7d67239fb78f58656f6ab39818d985bfc6c43abdd731aaff3b681","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280933706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"34cf2f160ee79c946afff7e5a09731842bacd8d00488b279a4839790533c7532","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674520848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"34cf2f160ee79c946afff7e5a09731842bacd8d00488b279a4839790533c7532","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674525343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"34cf2f160ee79c946afff7e5a09731842bacd8d00488b279a4839790533c7532","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674816752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"413b1dde240eda8fe4a75026bf87f8d06b9a5703782d0602eecc0ff0ee5bc923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539160148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"413b1dde240eda8fe4a75026bf87f8d06b9a5703782d0602eecc0ff0ee5bc923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542216253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"413b1dde240eda8fe4a75026bf87f8d06b9a5703782d0602eecc0ff0ee5bc923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548666271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055565849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552015045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"41a6e29023f0c57570d61d50295fcdb403ccbb676a9ba783f70bcb4fcf48c8eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554696691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535311911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535315283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"45db5d06a001a6fa62eb9b23236adab43c56970d70a833ca206fa42a57f4b7e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535342616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715359916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751922416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"47619c438468e68230b4bc6fdf1344f6e47c94af5323ed729a028c95c3ec7328","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777259446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"4ac8435e5efdb7b2a506bc2171ff3f89711981138b29636b430d08054775d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609841641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"4ac8435e5efdb7b2a506bc2171ff3f89711981138b29636b430d08054775d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3715299913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"4ac8435e5efdb7b2a506bc2171ff3f89711981138b29636b430d08054775d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3775763342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"511f3b0c89f309eeb69f924c0fa445814f458454f3faee9a6af3c5a90d5a2a9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541301265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"511f3b0c89f309eeb69f924c0fa445814f458454f3faee9a6af3c5a90d5a2a9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546242939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"511f3b0c89f309eeb69f924c0fa445814f458454f3faee9a6af3c5a90d5a2a9d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555482652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"51794320e4eaf6dce73fcec311904174799ffab326819036ed38b71a8c4fb88e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541772995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"51794320e4eaf6dce73fcec311904174799ffab326819036ed38b71a8c4fb88e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542561389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"51794320e4eaf6dce73fcec311904174799ffab326819036ed38b71a8c4fb88e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545033287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432207151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268342751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"5943cc320316116ea2cae4edccf97a70160a2beea0ef31525405ce2d1eca7160","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878512378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696221728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691105656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"6208fc9de32a0c70420ccd15b638ec7fdf2d1345d0a0b4fa9b2a079d9f7aa585","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703961114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7803086892fc327ac5bb9b12e868c533c5f75f13de20adb7e578874681cbf039","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542078654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7803086892fc327ac5bb9b12e868c533c5f75f13de20adb7e578874681cbf039","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547437019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7803086892fc327ac5bb9b12e868c533c5f75f13de20adb7e578874681cbf039","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557550914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431340a31c933ce12e5f50350b55958262dfecdf7d7dc780016a07fb5671e0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704421688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431340a31c933ce12e5f50350b55958262dfecdf7d7dc780016a07fb5671e0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682092391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431340a31c933ce12e5f50350b55958262dfecdf7d7dc780016a07fb5671e0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701239468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431ca2860143ca3969b57d233e4ed36d0a8943fb040a1beb5573085c75804e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537037448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431ca2860143ca3969b57d233e4ed36d0a8943fb040a1beb5573085c75804e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537053592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f431ca2860143ca3969b57d233e4ed36d0a8943fb040a1beb5573085c75804e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537591655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536984627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536990188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"7f6734c8944f4e8ae9bfb5029fbe17745a6b9ea42839b1ec065e7cf17733178f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537285221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537427656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537866641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538906589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810956412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852582763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896778538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"983648d31063f8c663754970501c04bb493c31adb8d6b65d1e1f9dc195c581f6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067666146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"983648d31063f8c663754970501c04bb493c31adb8d6b65d1e1f9dc195c581f6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679220746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"983648d31063f8c663754970501c04bb493c31adb8d6b65d1e1f9dc195c581f6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683720712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aab8a113335e0ce44c678f9c27e1eaf14e12dae127db54c830d705e9d6ca90b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081329715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aab8a113335e0ce44c678f9c27e1eaf14e12dae127db54c830d705e9d6ca90b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813468315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aab8a113335e0ce44c678f9c27e1eaf14e12dae127db54c830d705e9d6ca90b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813928417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"ac79637a2ec06be6493cc0ec541585668645e3dda51fc7b2fd494926aa578bb7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541421381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"ac79637a2ec06be6493cc0ec541585668645e3dda51fc7b2fd494926aa578bb7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548485072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"ac79637a2ec06be6493cc0ec541585668645e3dda51fc7b2fd494926aa578bb7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056451495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aff18fd224bd26a4eced9a215c6ac14ba44e361c88465e51412fda54d51a6d4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952073679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aff18fd224bd26a4eced9a215c6ac14ba44e361c88465e51412fda54d51a6d4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813354183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"aff18fd224bd26a4eced9a215c6ac14ba44e361c88465e51412fda54d51a6d4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813638086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c27914dff280a3815515bf9f10f3c59d61735af8ef915e762a7dff178a69cc11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0562281706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c27914dff280a3815515bf9f10f3c59d61735af8ef915e762a7dff178a69cc11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592218301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c27914dff280a3815515bf9f10f3c59d61735af8ef915e762a7dff178a69cc11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634498308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c51ef3e231e76e8bc2f34e6818aeb9c352130e68a7026fcf329141614f65a19c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557000931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c51ef3e231e76e8bc2f34e6818aeb9c352130e68a7026fcf329141614f65a19c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3952712554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c51ef3e231e76e8bc2f34e6818aeb9c352130e68a7026fcf329141614f65a19c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573349324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680055552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270898287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"c6beb1094ea37b62753907500f55b9c0e6b5258add44477a8a5f7839e2ae22e3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029031235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535872451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535915834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d1e000ddd18c8e12e57e99662ff85c9430bad9aea77876fac679bb6063198b3f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536382775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718642674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716936709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d2abe18d313c4cc0787b3fc8b244c82446bb2c7ab1526054de37ab2af7d56881","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744901914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d57555e4bb9d6451b3002e2366da287a89269b163adcd1bf49e848f0df88a811","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792513031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d57555e4bb9d6451b3002e2366da287a89269b163adcd1bf49e848f0df88a811","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243137943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d57555e4bb9d6451b3002e2366da287a89269b163adcd1bf49e848f0df88a811","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229193604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286208359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128046226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332441897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535408527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535410216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535413749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbf841d9fd3a6629131e06e4fd7bc0fb58dc5a9129435d4c0b98472ba220ba78","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540588465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbf841d9fd3a6629131e06e4fd7bc0fb58dc5a9129435d4c0b98472ba220ba78","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542616783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dbf841d9fd3a6629131e06e4fd7bc0fb58dc5a9129435d4c0b98472ba220ba78","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054784341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dc6ece8237f233089bf891ec750633d283402255fd5b60b99d0b3853f2d65ee4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1955686053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dc6ece8237f233089bf891ec750633d283402255fd5b60b99d0b3853f2d65ee4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5175572157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"dc6ece8237f233089bf891ec750633d283402255fd5b60b99d0b3853f2d65ee4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386168895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"de66ba6519ef01e06d7059e5eee45e8a22fa9d553eb6ce5aef1352bac8b6e1eb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055589891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"de66ba6519ef01e06d7059e5eee45e8a22fa9d553eb6ce5aef1352bac8b6e1eb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553897253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"de66ba6519ef01e06d7059e5eee45e8a22fa9d553eb6ce5aef1352bac8b6e1eb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558995548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780169236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835485111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"df4cf738388f89b108e5b0a377d8827248bb7a3c19b4e4e55e1b59de99717a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567719738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e274f8a2957087f0701ff64ef42f41426098c6460e3c1443bff3853c2c642a96","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014142091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e274f8a2957087f0701ff64ef42f41426098c6460e3c1443bff3853c2c642a96","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068364457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e274f8a2957087f0701ff64ef42f41426098c6460e3c1443bff3853c2c642a96","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148256629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e98c06f8469d894f8f50b23de9c98ae8689485d36e2058e94ef34633a2616ffe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061457457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e98c06f8469d894f8f50b23de9c98ae8689485d36e2058e94ef34633a2616ffe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615030122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"e98c06f8469d894f8f50b23de9c98ae8689485d36e2058e94ef34633a2616ffe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624470606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679136391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540874741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542659577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eaef280097718cac83d54dfce2b21145bbe6cc2598359ab22bb41c3c7ed74088","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539106215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eaef280097718cac83d54dfce2b21145bbe6cc2598359ab22bb41c3c7ed74088","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054389014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"eaef280097718cac83d54dfce2b21145bbe6cc2598359ab22bb41c3c7ed74088","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554453716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696716724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722617083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f46164652cf1876782c2731cc6f4db92ec9f2d58fc82e138c458f18cf604ec11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0767950072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f5f31cd8e043254c116cef976ff36ff61281e3bbe503131e7126f7e16f64a0d3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682923529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f5f31cd8e043254c116cef976ff36ff61281e3bbe503131e7126f7e16f64a0d3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677426348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f5f31cd8e043254c116cef976ff36ff61281e3bbe503131e7126f7e16f64a0d3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678048038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538393754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540169824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"f7318125ae5a8420e03475a140651eb409bc32c74746311fc5ab124c48612cf2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543552887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fac8c551d8ebb11add6d4f67f263cd9e870bf5a51c7796598f9fe9e0b5a69353","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227156832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fac8c551d8ebb11add6d4f67f263cd9e870bf5a51c7796598f9fe9e0b5a69353","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332402144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fac8c551d8ebb11add6d4f67f263cd9e870bf5a51c7796598f9fe9e0b5a69353","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1390472814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fadc22b52bd6724520276b68ec26b48713c46e052b7415107e43509c1bf3e772","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674945228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fadc22b52bd6724520276b68ec26b48713c46e052b7415107e43509c1bf3e772","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0680007129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"acled","id":"fadc22b52bd6724520276b68ec26b48713c46e052b7415107e43509c1bf3e772","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664903277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807444819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1398803899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062218229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597229263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1599208013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912295156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1666236182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686737355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723806902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1420116687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0664293081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815525128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524984061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691550805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653097415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1507096825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643459906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424046686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618311402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655793146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789272563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511647604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693681747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556823175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.14554978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693959523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745514094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406263331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0658793679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922428106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5973756908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598626913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338294942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5232222252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216123757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638852685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6157107886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645793222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409893001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367340311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645626557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591494969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330073752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701570576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720052805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5864865402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063325165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656684826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198982377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619987862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254129129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6640192146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623406725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681257519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466771856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667126393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614352868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5793802561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687306796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793781492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5453547731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670348591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2813101017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5879642501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065940423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147770982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5263203905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657450911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2552554462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331352507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756403493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707303303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483218039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064586461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707218154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6123006207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581527599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405828058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6279139332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726625941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24223667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246610769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627126697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653626684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5608679022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796958741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6700905018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582154261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426310367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5855773803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580529829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646466806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5738465547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671515249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344800611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242493451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627182252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4114751582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11666226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625348933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219385861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.639263847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590626974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3772602811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599159683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263485254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890553953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364027126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511049241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432668542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1864561745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187095587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2635416892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2010782856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.304633525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618444909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080448994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266061222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281652498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823099927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189492979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451180422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1895051968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27635551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989996057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332946913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917207465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2043334557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914068962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127865312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4053854688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238010947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3851249064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859674343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007881583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669821584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4745745461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108351212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3501286695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521714092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938117642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2617646551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3979000751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064644937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838208325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028459299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2993812644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851664804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725160817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011664185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325395655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3713205772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164450291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038206564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912022011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238477023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584993752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983782983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2997659468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286423517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763423391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080670254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2664890096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4082948296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292410716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721197794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731549882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963650952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275643969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2546372309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975011214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869026924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793284443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093818504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091369335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163020131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063788851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3437370095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854889174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951312484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808674611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268484775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2995839655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884610197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702318908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043018668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305230478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXJPUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086039184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044173544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2974512433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920138213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944164093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728810356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493504766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143376595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251105739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356796214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665986847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756003172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971102273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712345776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077418039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991355161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019271673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183075884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657878227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977325986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952770378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937846443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021089748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297750969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950267427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3257741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631231083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166763404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0709939358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104654056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393307863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978998825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575395899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216168352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454746816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377024428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322251097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729240574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3573319906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454496486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048361796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040271746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065748949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2981720406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029675954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094613164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101607336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128078713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1698822115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188561071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061655615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874414402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2300835869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422881661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311836794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078410441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091527136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946959695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786125056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529019795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582913231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3758349781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539543048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4038268251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4094673935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932869979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5137022848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4684787597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3974475908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6707741875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5489104252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5381215577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1217539126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330860458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYAWARD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517617104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1563338912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175578598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2013368876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123235839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371796168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714732229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015740335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728289849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417490502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987740699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2977307841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293724396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704193962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386916105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047917483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4771357344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4918398783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.470893501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054664345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942815174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825648057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543284913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041186582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911592393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4127723963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3532050152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3344325055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036851386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036855474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037045401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299511035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1587286628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216170186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036852487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036870904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"05f09faefe344f218e0c533a274423e2676cef788a3af3725fb5f04806d9c815","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037092726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035409302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103559154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035958754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039237462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043245782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1084c41175ae9f0235e8eebfce488d810a43c3d46a0274aca6a4a0a3231c5a7a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053372349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036905269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037146611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037708546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882736423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054846227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1373565473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815715178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934358462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11915113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096438784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7334220174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808548201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750404094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829736825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004193278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037100256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042354677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"1ec488ae658cc1505c86120e2ee58fec127f1620d43d11489cec8698e74f1367","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063267413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0731959234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883735859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2b364d69f4259a683453d7ef82e467dce8ab263096f26a4df9aea7f07a7a60f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281288396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036978035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037525808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10385608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035571401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035586517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036144263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037182472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040026339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088073197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042292433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052545689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077377722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036974724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037212583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"3e4a4efdf003cb2adc2cbc448f81b9a07581a38c82b16b408e4c0256c597336c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039510727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130590465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545416118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.208987039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036919152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037320832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039956486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814833865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075275876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1712343703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035464713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035649714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"694a82f721a3e2a378e2f3dd32bd5aaa9606567705be6905c9af0f885748c874","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035881383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036906924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037419698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"74f2b04743e373fb503773e173540041879c53b80cfe756dd054a124caee9860","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038218597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036865843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037039744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037361628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076861289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196104945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.154856965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036865858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038540851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"82f7697e98ceedd1ed4ff23bb768ab79f85b3624a9b3580a136b42fbeed81beb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104202258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076597342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881680875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288788339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797514292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844625045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636841252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542464562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056148709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623924105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735570873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815403601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0948790921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036741409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036745525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103677472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037350815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038026954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040199949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103679458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036796386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a053f94d47f58e79e8783826b820aaaca04ae43c92d4fb252ec642fdddff41cf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036978357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758181818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890471925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106289725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349472925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1592827843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1755523815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036906374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037079806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103755568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264013533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288582252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379246124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036907507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036922857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"afa1e56e70828bc7652952bec38fa47b05f3ff2bee9046c21d83d5921bb83516","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037309977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037255255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038894826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb2e00debc6f7f58dec5ffafb4472f91e4e8fbca267c918cd3f16c8c8dc57591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047772953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175628665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175632365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036759186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936459824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7931933486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6661782974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0882959199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988791728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1177233631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2492e4d012f9a1d2d56d0fa594799965a6d4acbf26142552c94e50ce2356b00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035503746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2492e4d012f9a1d2d56d0fa594799965a6d4acbf26142552c94e50ce2356b00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035588879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2492e4d012f9a1d2d56d0fa594799965a6d4acbf26142552c94e50ce2356b00","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036306934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261408923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1393150657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5103128906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937457674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148067186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.528720242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715584914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822090216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128803443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175658515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333577366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ABNB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526858576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847965028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3432580731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247255544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134344424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3276948997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538801148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160749002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304488625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AIZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.260727275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092423175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841354554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3434573029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198511966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443621036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"ANET","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435438112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172919411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389628161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706779358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285550077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3423672732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BKNG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3693733486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3159569112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3399479218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748560249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158691226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335108711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3626309346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3137956695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.338125177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CDNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493801784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295178294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853600163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690550478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2905546724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352256347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615233166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176445136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251255372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CLX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450770461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953307219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256775816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CMCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3468333201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163157055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397448433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"CME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3649697052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316990165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371374685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36523382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186483551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3356330131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DECK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3620310203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317648769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3352785996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DIS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.364876232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147092678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757938287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2575894738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120370039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346119028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"EW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363733748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2952383148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805048592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2676374514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196586021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410289168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"GWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2449988191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160377128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317380867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HIG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35822012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091015993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848980031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"HPE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653745395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309741542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252550181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3401652963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892103132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687184957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464106486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3171850212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303918727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3565419437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943396533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284880975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"LHX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3533739782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168976834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753574281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2574403457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094131878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196784472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334416751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113122245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.327244966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558206577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888847635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442075347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"NOW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2417745662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206141656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3371620015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360950693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162802941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299657343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551407044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153230321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321559152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2569775881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133771594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254780617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410783882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118008194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829354474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SLB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658129022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929154403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33801081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SNPS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514849122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090832045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203794023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738849921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318100484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363584566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3631067127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126289773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322276171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615081275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114873686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326293039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"STZ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3578836006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3122267767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3246819691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3445704672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922004359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369017492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3655100526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187714869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425394281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2396762994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WAT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148154595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WAT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3336035323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WAT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541369524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184143221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410455911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2451999067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108866529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3273535181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538187833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"00a049905199ac469a9fba64b6344da53114af7d80235f8884dc50c4f01901f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1316213278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"00a049905199ac469a9fba64b6344da53114af7d80235f8884dc50c4f01901f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334292585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"00a049905199ac469a9fba64b6344da53114af7d80235f8884dc50c4f01901f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5840352256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"044c3011fda3cd18f3e9571cd86f61175b53237aa850e3f5530cf7d2374492ba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813614339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"044c3011fda3cd18f3e9571cd86f61175b53237aa850e3f5530cf7d2374492ba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813938781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"044c3011fda3cd18f3e9571cd86f61175b53237aa850e3f5530cf7d2374492ba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815262688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0753f9ed5ca42a8980428b1952cebf8a524e1515f19d8ed408b2ad33396669f7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015235932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0753f9ed5ca42a8980428b1952cebf8a524e1515f19d8ed408b2ad33396669f7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006559887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0753f9ed5ca42a8980428b1952cebf8a524e1515f19d8ed408b2ad33396669f7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038159647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0d4ec7a241c5fc470e0b742bb1d3c91f5b5fd37c59118505ca7eb9e3fa7ac4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675491755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0d4ec7a241c5fc470e0b742bb1d3c91f5b5fd37c59118505ca7eb9e3fa7ac4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538930075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"0d4ec7a241c5fc470e0b742bb1d3c91f5b5fd37c59118505ca7eb9e3fa7ac4fa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542477487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080958727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067094334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671470252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.305180966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474779225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559743952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682197537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545798773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"19e88e9b09a731389bfc1e5d1c20493ef450b1f1234435c937a557ba1b8048f4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055268261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"1cca39143d5ce5dfa1bfb48e0b99b9c970cfa4049011704bd3107bfb6ea1c3db","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448382087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"1cca39143d5ce5dfa1bfb48e0b99b9c970cfa4049011704bd3107bfb6ea1c3db","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598131877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"1cca39143d5ce5dfa1bfb48e0b99b9c970cfa4049011704bd3107bfb6ea1c3db","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266911856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606040338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652821094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071877226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"2978e6b4d3cccbdfacbed29e60e49d3de40d1501f1e32597e84e5f0e624cc47f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561016519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"2978e6b4d3cccbdfacbed29e60e49d3de40d1501f1e32597e84e5f0e624cc47f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577822913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"2978e6b4d3cccbdfacbed29e60e49d3de40d1501f1e32597e84e5f0e624cc47f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608872339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"3157077f3f4bb5666b520971f3fb90fef7569ffa3347093e432c2ba7b64ad019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0743252629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"3157077f3f4bb5666b520971f3fb90fef7569ffa3347093e432c2ba7b64ad019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770231869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"3157077f3f4bb5666b520971f3fb90fef7569ffa3347093e432c2ba7b64ad019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080359106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"409a5ded50c02a0fd0f086671ef1262fbed31503178fb56d3045076d77da8112","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690678274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"409a5ded50c02a0fd0f086671ef1262fbed31503178fb56d3045076d77da8112","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729022056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"409a5ded50c02a0fd0f086671ef1262fbed31503178fb56d3045076d77da8112","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4009157151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"4125088f11f16e7d2a2c4f0d23887aaf2b9766b9a7ee0cd324e16e82250df434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677616461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"4125088f11f16e7d2a2c4f0d23887aaf2b9766b9a7ee0cd324e16e82250df434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662554353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"4125088f11f16e7d2a2c4f0d23887aaf2b9766b9a7ee0cd324e16e82250df434","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0671305953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"418b3b6cf1140eba6e21f20c2d1050b41088dc0963bd7bdc813226ccde9dfe72","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748915732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"418b3b6cf1140eba6e21f20c2d1050b41088dc0963bd7bdc813226ccde9dfe72","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220033821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"418b3b6cf1140eba6e21f20c2d1050b41088dc0963bd7bdc813226ccde9dfe72","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710638245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531533698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531535382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"430471f6d9fd4cd3fa537e4993c738c07c5a67c71d21094ada0ba8144970dd3b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531547094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"55e875e1b0802c85349c46d50eeebb0fd29ce7e02733f9962332ba16cf12bf49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1530413318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"55e875e1b0802c85349c46d50eeebb0fd29ce7e02733f9962332ba16cf12bf49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565844716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"55e875e1b0802c85349c46d50eeebb0fd29ce7e02733f9962332ba16cf12bf49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808636206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915400211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041613697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987541885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"643c5961fe41035d9e260380459f5050f7202251691a6f6ca85c87701a8f1c19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711974117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"643c5961fe41035d9e260380459f5050f7202251691a6f6ca85c87701a8f1c19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721585155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"643c5961fe41035d9e260380459f5050f7202251691a6f6ca85c87701a8f1c19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716123108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6a91e7ed6c1fee060fd80808d240fa26d31968aff20f634d593fe343247ac98b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688591933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6a91e7ed6c1fee060fd80808d240fa26d31968aff20f634d593fe343247ac98b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683916969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6a91e7ed6c1fee060fd80808d240fa26d31968aff20f634d593fe343247ac98b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054843041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6b54163ef0fd03bb8fe13a9bc84a45e66a5ea4c9f892e9843a7b32d9e9e54889","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486995927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6b54163ef0fd03bb8fe13a9bc84a45e66a5ea4c9f892e9843a7b32d9e9e54889","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618838075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6b54163ef0fd03bb8fe13a9bc84a45e66a5ea4c9f892e9843a7b32d9e9e54889","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731693513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6e8a71ee5341795f1c3c1c1b63222e5e6368c6a3c4d9652eeb3ac7aaf878d363","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537944188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6e8a71ee5341795f1c3c1c1b63222e5e6368c6a3c4d9652eeb3ac7aaf878d363","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539941951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"6e8a71ee5341795f1c3c1c1b63222e5e6368c6a3c4d9652eeb3ac7aaf878d363","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542854707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7346aa891f4b0bb16562944b521fae5a4b25866f3d5829050b4288f4105eaa6e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533740915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7346aa891f4b0bb16562944b521fae5a4b25866f3d5829050b4288f4105eaa6e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535104927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7346aa891f4b0bb16562944b521fae5a4b25866f3d5829050b4288f4105eaa6e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538745432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"73b4211a0b5e36e8b9e6e5cd7ea56a9e96e48cfc915aeb098ad12df98295949e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686804169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"73b4211a0b5e36e8b9e6e5cd7ea56a9e96e48cfc915aeb098ad12df98295949e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068766194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"73b4211a0b5e36e8b9e6e5cd7ea56a9e96e48cfc915aeb098ad12df98295949e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707332902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"79f0173ffa67eb11babd74a5a35b4588b01f2eeae678dee1d512a2252aff5888","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053885112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"79f0173ffa67eb11babd74a5a35b4588b01f2eeae678dee1d512a2252aff5888","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542518315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"79f0173ffa67eb11babd74a5a35b4588b01f2eeae678dee1d512a2252aff5888","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547341139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7a7120b9a21fde5f708183084258b18d27d795ffd965477f60986932a010a49f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873711133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7a7120b9a21fde5f708183084258b18d27d795ffd965477f60986932a010a49f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877862518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"7a7120b9a21fde5f708183084258b18d27d795ffd965477f60986932a010a49f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887018899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"822017f9638dde6e392933bad78ba8c8e847c9e7a7bb58a1295500f516a39cd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809422721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"822017f9638dde6e392933bad78ba8c8e847c9e7a7bb58a1295500f516a39cd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809704441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"822017f9638dde6e392933bad78ba8c8e847c9e7a7bb58a1295500f516a39cd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810114016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541447517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054786583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056083762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670437804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670442382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670510271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"8a674c0c1e915dd8a5897a031e36909008a9fdf2e2c8b1e4d76f728a14e85953","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542641658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"8a674c0c1e915dd8a5897a031e36909008a9fdf2e2c8b1e4d76f728a14e85953","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544914074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"8a674c0c1e915dd8a5897a031e36909008a9fdf2e2c8b1e4d76f728a14e85953","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549841009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836025258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864933372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"94024406efd3b31d9fed52aa7f75e0d773ab280b527167d29fe2c7da9e3f8049","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093047843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9c2a318d050a0c01e7aa14d9c4a0b5d5256c82d1fdbf9bd89259d170bb6a86b7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834391937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9c2a318d050a0c01e7aa14d9c4a0b5d5256c82d1fdbf9bd89259d170bb6a86b7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857793982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9c2a318d050a0c01e7aa14d9c4a0b5d5256c82d1fdbf9bd89259d170bb6a86b7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270247516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534717646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535097232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"9d634c992383178a8000854793cb90aec47d883128079809aa4156161857c7a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536055775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551810772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568905087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600767635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531592042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531764869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ab03ce9b4b4ceab969c1bad45e9f7b360fbf88df20fcd9119736e345e77f577b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532069589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117056704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367729432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"c4d1d7b83e216fb15864501e943bf3de27b0cc5f2299517c6e05da3f181669c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954379793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131270606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2706982161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d3ae7ca5f3d1ec8e76718de9b64cd08b3ceef5d0fa7d65d50028aa99168fce2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064101672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d6cfb1dbeff7cb7fde1788b6d3fcab7adbebac4f6d9609a2c221b6815dd39907","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.099879985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d6cfb1dbeff7cb7fde1788b6d3fcab7adbebac4f6d9609a2c221b6815dd39907","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034172026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d6cfb1dbeff7cb7fde1788b6d3fcab7adbebac4f6d9609a2c221b6815dd39907","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073188396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d88c1f6fb332d08add9d5dbbddfb34e317bdb14d98f4e465fbe09b96525bc481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533105936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d88c1f6fb332d08add9d5dbbddfb34e317bdb14d98f4e465fbe09b96525bc481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533514939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d88c1f6fb332d08add9d5dbbddfb34e317bdb14d98f4e465fbe09b96525bc481","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534223711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569822302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582614982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"d8fd625887b1335ac000dfa80bd67b53c98c7db1b64c50a1026e0c2355034850","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602578748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2307420751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2339989948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"daa70278458462c2b1c196c2881abf8c6adc756249d153f935763ec14d730da8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331309459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"dc55c43ce17ab2246dbe364c2eb8e4a9194d66bdb215004fa108595f00320394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532677973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"dc55c43ce17ab2246dbe364c2eb8e4a9194d66bdb215004fa108595f00320394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053329589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"dc55c43ce17ab2246dbe364c2eb8e4a9194d66bdb215004fa108595f00320394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534812579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533658738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053455327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"e2dd788be5180dc96b1202b861fc7a6ff3bc7c146b492d1a1686bb3c21adc9b4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05378548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736868233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171311045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eaa5bb6a84590ac40778a6a1be2403f6b7e60f1e636987566dbc5517c0ae406c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853835678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054408692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549335213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560862903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810326031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813793005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"ef975d67bd3d41f2a9babd718e581e073023ec59ed12957d637d723f4dfcd44a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815580769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3760640827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907846192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f1f34d2f7e1994e08b5b6932a804607965e58467532dd1b35bdaef303297393b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860970437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f926682cc23c69ba51e3f9f6a46664eababcc63145fc83417cb4abf455b04c08","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532817638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f926682cc23c69ba51e3f9f6a46664eababcc63145fc83417cb4abf455b04c08","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532827077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"f926682cc23c69ba51e3f9f6a46664eababcc63145fc83417cb4abf455b04c08","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532853605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557489596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571046159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fe2f9ddce1fd5004071e1f65d64ac6a3ffb15c68159f18378602e43f8147084b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587878809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fef64d8f20c964d6708373e1472436bf6580e5dfa0bb2e431894d50fafff84a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949815518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fef64d8f20c964d6708373e1472436bf6580e5dfa0bb2e431894d50fafff84a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080110833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fef64d8f20c964d6708373e1472436bf6580e5dfa0bb2e431894d50fafff84a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804374533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fff8d1d6b7d9eee2f6b482635d4cc8df11acd69cfc229ed893605d02dee9bd5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900850134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fff8d1d6b7d9eee2f6b482635d4cc8df11acd69cfc229ed893605d02dee9bd5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019575343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"acled","id":"fff8d1d6b7d9eee2f6b482635d4cc8df11acd69cfc229ed893605d02dee9bd5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868623156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4215557372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211191298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617584695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21623565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1086136692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608084767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4257486804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299468405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473066896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276746356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694820219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.252413968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288579599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590223791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220794742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1354023547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693084121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2251909045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257413169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594098762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2050796033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1242191063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060887865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181914711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114530291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565362869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223128058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136025202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062448742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.219179122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065303517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057197393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2445959699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255746515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610529193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2145165736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124346967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560376796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2183628358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1351912452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739472658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123249047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110796986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571223936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270115464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122463564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070770901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2041358772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069025711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563376773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024547781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887391535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056158512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139778372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210357971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734486585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255695041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213413503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630640151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2108371066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212246846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722195011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20132914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066025734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575196128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2323905504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199969161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652362208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191656188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163413883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603156471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.230016109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255199469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652767205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2151751335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119025331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0604195907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4830989163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044525897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059860095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4841330398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1056414696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616890256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1919185922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004137315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575376682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993643134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010790598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593230991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040431876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022137178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563043998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4424650651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1106414316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594281538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4433000165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167413853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697751308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911736544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005081752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563918436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1948302369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052631046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585592715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314190295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3619839674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639323783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754475924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818687328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340773249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197517141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1836067108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984442145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655232656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927023837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558135012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214763228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397901655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5329950534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505522396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958584753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277849865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2272349906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060399478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773346102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6679260885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258525136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004971737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1759520467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214922965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307395034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995262938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955977371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487689198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943859995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3972939822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1506800164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895138143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944299135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4183146122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263470032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520681354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254572264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616304129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121257483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3307756587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3538909526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809476858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507607027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.386626879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185405651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457249107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3866559038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938315428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330389411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670509886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051712444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3299807819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3729680645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3112508046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337808533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3813339232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961531346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3314728099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3576623059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132875993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133689522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3355397949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300619726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067985854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301731076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194558629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674465105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845978811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961864622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3364027275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558435729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3055390834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051164273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129070442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188155474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3392996361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691320927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327697097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3201326318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053395463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696510552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790165891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145923076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014154664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138056952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925575702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148669712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124576526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143992723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916506745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332494986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272493012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3492919028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002130945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324402045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012156383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685839892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973434364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080893723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0950037023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262434827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3606834881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3609701101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3592199899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28072648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756555189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659217206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117231298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134045514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207314421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697235539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730637169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854949337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562704268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1925712099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1466106539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956173414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978887355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119729721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526693579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284344278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3398971654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212223571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUSTPSOFTDEVE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914187703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2693956473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272370259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3931623826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301575341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491781731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2163858878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907115117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519198889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3961714931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025807156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226287486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NFCICREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435214536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196739111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636749788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377121176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049227473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967846272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843114757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4019566855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4104002705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530026843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.26015794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"SOFR30DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2796575029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036187054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956834984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3213186603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002204121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3106483819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207198363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925656775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27922467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.269616532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651209056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215961694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844792191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6055715015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5712899366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4943461132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4274380586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4370895725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.425698944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315183141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331288093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3320870093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4239440346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3947963447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3591014454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938082416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3847227628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685673021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894709607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3804712041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444666186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956937282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3465723228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3283406761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6294659898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6150574372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5675659569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073402881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844916302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1047859205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033420431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034322091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038601503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752306449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873749416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213469059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897138127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091747761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406467593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032880991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032906685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034118759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103215433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032919896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103494722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730584392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739097661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803194396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034002649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037038198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1046707686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536780864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547534116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586668263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032977657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033322101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4dcfeb94aacd20d9b8c0ddb9a70c8419cd915f38d1f8c04eb773490007fa2394","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035441544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032919885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10330949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034378913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031537673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031726561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5261497265c39a0c3c10e1acbfa9fdbba8744cf43a767572b76db79e5af4229e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032071037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032992101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033222655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"542803238e72a73fbfdeb6fc18e2475361b083f959142af1a4fc6eb152ea482a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034098221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031585573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031755766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b84647ac79598cc907b31cf1a0eb5aa9b35ae2365e8fcd340f335dc7d4f564a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032217046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033423215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034020449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035522221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163222481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427776053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5641868274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0707306791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814305423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020026083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"829075fe690276eb3114bfa2836d3aa34ad61cce046054b986c3c5e8b755b15c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541530272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"829075fe690276eb3114bfa2836d3aa34ad61cce046054b986c3c5e8b755b15c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558210146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"829075fe690276eb3114bfa2836d3aa34ad61cce046054b986c3c5e8b755b15c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061958468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033032101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033383782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103540935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514800104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6123542883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089962403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655196076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764416913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931971196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103297599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033485986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034554328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033653202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037923169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c05f7d8605668275d1ab94ca60e71c3726b73284c6ebe7bf442482bb9533a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088388897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778084031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874152191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111413648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264295609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654003122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4970500687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031975442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032447122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9a8c4a4cf5fcc2682d964be5bf1aaf2276ef0c8b20180eb0429344ca53026896","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034517779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d5864e3e45973c1e336d54db06b8e02d5bb02f5790b0923deb638b92164d384","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103292113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d5864e3e45973c1e336d54db06b8e02d5bb02f5790b0923deb638b92164d384","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033091206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d5864e3e45973c1e336d54db06b8e02d5bb02f5790b0923deb638b92164d384","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034168048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1273091295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1550359362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092694507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090441585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149913986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574132986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895693694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006915072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269913074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921415721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035803741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260802032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084169466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919582401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065914623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103297379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033048274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034406729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971804233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105636544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366523452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032977124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033330482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103446169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033088217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033766701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c150752b0fa15c095b60111b38a411aeebf04a4b39802edf4dc4c82a2fe89cf8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035130002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881527135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345912497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1873297381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810472119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090841582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132191898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821027594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090747768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1702632011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760139168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129303031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.613670945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033047101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033331546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf373450466c71a49a7f2e82e176b66198255960bb1cf71d1721cd258d0c2b81","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034286541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073997321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853194017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1093914411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032877252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032921018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033102817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679917555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810861005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240579964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033322654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036440425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"e70f0209e1cc709009b034055f3a94fa2775c96d8f164e9e38e19dfc7a1d0cfb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1048781004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033162656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1034020427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036659851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919693512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127803042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629444764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031643784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031721022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032127247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033639869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103437153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"f9106f3b9841f95439ebf55649231126b43964900268038b93902cc15a645134","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037937058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032878802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033088845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"wikipedia","id":"ffe024b62430e4329259f98ad29cef7947944254b803f241de3b51e2653358c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033541347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136168765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272448592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AEE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3498698484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014136921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176338977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010858624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120101648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325945295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"ARE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633931679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900290578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351197094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"AXON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3585841073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3168721611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389974407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3692706776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3149029717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780606882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2580250083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3243001818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493487734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"BRO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3830121356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177095917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309136588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610215077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3234562248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724844547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2484253671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157393266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322945075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514443122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188203478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3413529525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736952071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155513304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305151352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463702507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131232343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812588269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DHI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653713044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294996089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223930767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"DOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681507207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3196840768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720098126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQIX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492399934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181114541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787927335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EQR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633076631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953828379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265878994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3418082901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2927823673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2792109857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FANG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614478006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3150151264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341215427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2535907365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102822444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787577324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638233909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214814045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2637615683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"GOOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422028769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3145499972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773209833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600957255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3194311478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367366949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"HII","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657617035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899758283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701009841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IDXX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3677725394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315642779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731103352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IEX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498983387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865605111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2695443319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455557822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913261591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747364308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565779059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153591645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308220442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526922064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868265794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750725232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519795972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070455099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249018168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632267482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956743358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285245568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NCLH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699558131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912422914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929260289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NDAQ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827175874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096296426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854590975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NEM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396622766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139189702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800011381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642541461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110355811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241347271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462933952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139335053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3287413691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625861658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900944171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3367538588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PODD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3610836874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316858208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810773161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"PSKY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692749903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182820814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272834667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RJF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513062995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224018417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397797426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"RMD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698492738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292440894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2763133272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"STT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598218507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913518717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2766715633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606884738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151391586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3323100426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"TPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3558236742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117032356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862030263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716726537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900774603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785876319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600725392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926852035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247571685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"yfinance","id":"XOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383690747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"00ec60fc48a12136178cf46443d3b8e7ea0bea0c368afe41200f20c6329f7dd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623191144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"00ec60fc48a12136178cf46443d3b8e7ea0bea0c368afe41200f20c6329f7dd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506872395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"00ec60fc48a12136178cf46443d3b8e7ea0bea0c368afe41200f20c6329f7dd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504453861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611424928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612027372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0a81aa2d53af747a506dc58c0cb97875d737f3f35f7d9a3678307fc029b4de69","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616083337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555167094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056397585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0ee200f355dc5e62e7ca9e179090cb40cf516a03996d7f3b8c21c16249c69466","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586509404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523748811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053116288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542868865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"102767a88f6d075527f03c402c40e476cf5c467e5173922095d58b4f7bc99921","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984595556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"102767a88f6d075527f03c402c40e476cf5c467e5173922095d58b4f7bc99921","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010698209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"102767a88f6d075527f03c402c40e476cf5c467e5173922095d58b4f7bc99921","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026896344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"10dd44afffe94d13e79aa679225f20a837818f17004460ab0b000884bee6b453","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620485852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"10dd44afffe94d13e79aa679225f20a837818f17004460ab0b000884bee6b453","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515496812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"10dd44afffe94d13e79aa679225f20a837818f17004460ab0b000884bee6b453","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528224702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496830471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497525963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"14a7a20a9f1c2c96df98336dac569e523de1fa5c439058f5c1723d09fa7e84b8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499200117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"1a1a62f30060096bde1974f01231b6fbd543e89dee58803a35a07834bbb71cb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726563571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"1a1a62f30060096bde1974f01231b6fbd543e89dee58803a35a07834bbb71cb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614135252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"1a1a62f30060096bde1974f01231b6fbd543e89dee58803a35a07834bbb71cb9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064265608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"20ef5a47055e5593c63f1dfb0979def75d522e2d74abeaefc8e5a53a8fd20bd6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052137779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"20ef5a47055e5593c63f1dfb0979def75d522e2d74abeaefc8e5a53a8fd20bd6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528066407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"20ef5a47055e5593c63f1dfb0979def75d522e2d74abeaefc8e5a53a8fd20bd6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541143643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643633081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542496984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"216fc0f48a7f08603a466a09af87ca53545d9ee878fa9a695e697bf8eb51fdbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055400517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609004981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545251131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"26abb72d282439d6aaf2133336ed1a475a7c647c30a6739d0654c04406a4b74b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515651817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"270e01f2c86479e7c72867ec5c7cc84cb41762bacf7ed7f8814d5ce0e99ba3de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502752957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"270e01f2c86479e7c72867ec5c7cc84cb41762bacf7ed7f8814d5ce0e99ba3de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503101024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"270e01f2c86479e7c72867ec5c7cc84cb41762bacf7ed7f8814d5ce0e99ba3de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504366021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"27f93eed3e1f9314f12558ef9b081d2340ec4b20f324f801a3da34e6e4498ac6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2097302373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"27f93eed3e1f9314f12558ef9b081d2340ec4b20f324f801a3da34e6e4498ac6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361902979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"27f93eed3e1f9314f12558ef9b081d2340ec4b20f324f801a3da34e6e4498ac6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.418201459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"2c589789ca64da4b396d27477dd221f02e18f8d1c4eb050f5f6f5acbb1cfd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525973636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"2c589789ca64da4b396d27477dd221f02e18f8d1c4eb050f5f6f5acbb1cfd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539020922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"2c589789ca64da4b396d27477dd221f02e18f8d1c4eb050f5f6f5acbb1cfd55a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555670533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"3a1360a4e194b535b3a9e62cd39b441d828778aeea087e36d8a73ce5e3352506","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503038684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"3a1360a4e194b535b3a9e62cd39b441d828778aeea087e36d8a73ce5e3352506","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502932779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"3a1360a4e194b535b3a9e62cd39b441d828778aeea087e36d8a73ce5e3352506","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050384534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4702e7ff2f55b8a5db773cc75d7b6447bc272eee1bf2b839ef8f84c7ef282a4f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049624908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4702e7ff2f55b8a5db773cc75d7b6447bc272eee1bf2b839ef8f84c7ef282a4f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496388334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4702e7ff2f55b8a5db773cc75d7b6447bc272eee1bf2b839ef8f84c7ef282a4f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496625734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618351622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506296488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4703bb3b6388a56387e7e4a2b489a02f2374fe7a0173ddaa3ace4a6fbc9640f5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504450152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"47aceb7529788153ac770e83d9a51e70f5bd5ed5d7476d32fb586424ac444039","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992496442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"47aceb7529788153ac770e83d9a51e70f5bd5ed5d7476d32fb586424ac444039","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991841899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"47aceb7529788153ac770e83d9a51e70f5bd5ed5d7476d32fb586424ac444039","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0988040092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4c5838cada42d44ac688a0efee008646d66f82d768050b79247d1187336b7041","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584303083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4c5838cada42d44ac688a0efee008646d66f82d768050b79247d1187336b7041","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593611238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"4c5838cada42d44ac688a0efee008646d66f82d768050b79247d1187336b7041","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622076634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"51d732942c96e49feab240dba706ac169da31dacff3cca8107c2866113324aa3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119543741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"51d732942c96e49feab240dba706ac169da31dacff3cca8107c2866113324aa3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318522219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"51d732942c96e49feab240dba706ac169da31dacff3cca8107c2866113324aa3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834877586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012590977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029363656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3377271752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5c85331f03dc37ebab48332b19bd8ebde8c22ff0984b939facd489b87280a7a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642597898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5c85331f03dc37ebab48332b19bd8ebde8c22ff0984b939facd489b87280a7a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656166041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5c85331f03dc37ebab48332b19bd8ebde8c22ff0984b939facd489b87280a7a5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068034779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5deef8db1c971774080b8a4647dba21f84c61214a5891baeeb431d9f0f40a2c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498269811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5deef8db1c971774080b8a4647dba21f84c61214a5891baeeb431d9f0f40a2c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498943441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5deef8db1c971774080b8a4647dba21f84c61214a5891baeeb431d9f0f40a2c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501574706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777586375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818932507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0876808251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"60e3d1c01c9ccd0be42f525efe7b0eb8e2fb9ef4aa12ef5e5f9eb1d02376fd3c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877826824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"60e3d1c01c9ccd0be42f525efe7b0eb8e2fb9ef4aa12ef5e5f9eb1d02376fd3c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3812872465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"60e3d1c01c9ccd0be42f525efe7b0eb8e2fb9ef4aa12ef5e5f9eb1d02376fd3c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589248104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504079081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503357451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"6d9d7200951ce0f2e717f375d12ce911b7399f58a0ac0a56172979ab52f1901a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502815271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78ced8d1691dcc09a76703270781778b7ada7ec4616397081f73975eca3228fe","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072974849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78ced8d1691dcc09a76703270781778b7ada7ec4616397081f73975eca3228fe","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094455696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78ced8d1691dcc09a76703270781778b7ada7ec4616397081f73975eca3228fe","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131033319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78fa565cfb6bbc2bd79844dbfec8854fa8759f077a2258f793c5398648d5222f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795827192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78fa565cfb6bbc2bd79844dbfec8854fa8759f077a2258f793c5398648d5222f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2669460281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"78fa565cfb6bbc2bd79844dbfec8854fa8759f077a2258f793c5398648d5222f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614284984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"7e2cda65cb0b8c2de02a53102ab27a981cd27008ce5be5ae95e4a393472b7a2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610396926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"7e2cda65cb0b8c2de02a53102ab27a981cd27008ce5be5ae95e4a393472b7a2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496810342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"7e2cda65cb0b8c2de02a53102ab27a981cd27008ce5be5ae95e4a393472b7a2f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497280282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"8bbae492677b57778c0df09916eb6d0b4f9f776614a55efda43fb06f7ebc51be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081156831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"8bbae492677b57778c0df09916eb6d0b4f9f776614a55efda43fb06f7ebc51be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008283857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"8bbae492677b57778c0df09916eb6d0b4f9f776614a55efda43fb06f7ebc51be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415237239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426559479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340199364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"90c1396d0ab77242a9ae8c0450fd8a8676d3c1ad919248b3107a8fc08caf0ea3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3526747829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"adce5fb334dbde74c2272f01e353c670e8855f2ebe7f60ca798562b7507ad56b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833694515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"adce5fb334dbde74c2272f01e353c670e8855f2ebe7f60ca798562b7507ad56b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843493873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"adce5fb334dbde74c2272f01e353c670e8855f2ebe7f60ca798562b7507ad56b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887524129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b04f6aeb8f3f9be05df9e81a8d1b08ca73b0a1780641f62d271fd600d603494d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548158282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b04f6aeb8f3f9be05df9e81a8d1b08ca73b0a1780641f62d271fd600d603494d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555299511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b04f6aeb8f3f9be05df9e81a8d1b08ca73b0a1780641f62d271fd600d603494d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574097639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253203993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3357069605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b10813a3b22b28a75f7b0970764c45da96f0c7ca7e95c756f9dd4d72e68d20ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354110977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.440133669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2305353596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b1bd1dcc07e5e43b1d02d7f26edbda9df4116aaca2a266d6090e360a2f8f98e2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226904779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516285265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.256060332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b3b8099d53c65ee5a0b52414c70ffee2aea5c95ae89e1e612c8e27250f35d829","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.225374238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b99cde44bf887959b2da15efc5f730789011e25782adac3bf20f2ef5e81b073a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064530782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b99cde44bf887959b2da15efc5f730789011e25782adac3bf20f2ef5e81b073a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107740529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"b99cde44bf887959b2da15efc5f730789011e25782adac3bf20f2ef5e81b073a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1088117987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"ba4369563a5038da71698e33c2f8393cf07d83b6115427b145051374d046afd8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666272563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"ba4369563a5038da71698e33c2f8393cf07d83b6115427b145051374d046afd8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750686867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"ba4369563a5038da71698e33c2f8393cf07d83b6115427b145051374d046afd8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713450155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bddb3c88ed316b4d4363d2ca5c5acbf165e0e1a254c8c42a64edf6cdacd16ee7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625406584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bddb3c88ed316b4d4363d2ca5c5acbf165e0e1a254c8c42a64edf6cdacd16ee7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052161279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bddb3c88ed316b4d4363d2ca5c5acbf165e0e1a254c8c42a64edf6cdacd16ee7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538954104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9453597236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584259883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607029363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c35fcf7b563fb0e0f1b2bafb28de6cf49348fcc9eefad3910903bd08fdcbea2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511576318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c35fcf7b563fb0e0f1b2bafb28de6cf49348fcc9eefad3910903bd08fdcbea2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510315158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c35fcf7b563fb0e0f1b2bafb28de6cf49348fcc9eefad3910903bd08fdcbea2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513074378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431558235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434004137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"c8efef925f6ca8dda786a0ffd199765a7d0e6e61b577f1e23bcfda44abcb255e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835463309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538451987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554480009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"cd6b9ade12913c585759c17434485c00786a4538f61f164a8d86c948f8765688","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.060253354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d13164a14ead5bbbeebceb2c273af666cdfcf8d8c769d57fab9f7afbf13c6d8f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896171162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d13164a14ead5bbbeebceb2c273af666cdfcf8d8c769d57fab9f7afbf13c6d8f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924598354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d13164a14ead5bbbeebceb2c273af666cdfcf8d8c769d57fab9f7afbf13c6d8f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096153143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944437489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015455013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d57847aa88a64ffccb11e4e303a14a96c90783e4f8f06f9a85e8ceffb8a934e1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013069565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706370951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679641161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"d84d2563e2124a48eb5ae1315cba00ea80f0220ecce0bf8a3558a77020ce4a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659784854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871808151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888625035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"dad90c8903ebe665e367fba42b6a0fcc3cdf7c04c559b5f8678d390a9ff1a923","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913488487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498273315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499262063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501053798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e705fa1f2a3f807ce3cdfb23788a4d3c0e4f86cfae6c8e13448400814af51772","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2276917768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e705fa1f2a3f807ce3cdfb23788a4d3c0e4f86cfae6c8e13448400814af51772","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285887288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"e705fa1f2a3f807ce3cdfb23788a4d3c0e4f86cfae6c8e13448400814af51772","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2277865492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553180017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569066786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594218109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980468616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282470613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796790184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122422755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1286016057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780812957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118573036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1384247711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895176266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.200259963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277996734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792630651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2075650162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204470836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0790665656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2036786637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369405023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973517598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214231274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278002756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801517443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140794645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134703561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836415071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2040604808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132660685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898346712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997332204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1176970915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752199857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2227647909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1409652067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983903285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314331297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1463197369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0955937456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2083342867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328481845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990200085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219377023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1442333792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998903242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2507376199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504379069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746860327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901832477},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198698125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.077448343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094695562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200879937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0694976385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1871878018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099834772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737108537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827105418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182970897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052574452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808398199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170060025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849081853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2058968391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255697962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787003394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1996650388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785301581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2021476226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1322650952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191029056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1971661823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1161662322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722882668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2084559227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209209459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855196247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135061944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732586277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868741663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1103062035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747756688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1728332974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135561942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796449276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1856287153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139380113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739540348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2105649413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1281443872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0708794981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1803985484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162543683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796181095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1897605217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1247697985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881711305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920059698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120183448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840557332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767825977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139416176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0833105535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740423848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095334785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830245088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3542645965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162374326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1886084712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61970.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373303697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926968166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526876144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954287327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132901607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2519961342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1867059849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3293984401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4542494813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131206821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433599177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251492011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2060708841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340247158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4597985887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2216563606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337019048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4457104519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315343474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24388664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1635667789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421117943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2438532091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1844751074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278970623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291149545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723242079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362924928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155674976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.150384875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112698371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314262191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168556988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219198067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.358049719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628020203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218948893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2440144356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411100409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3449354787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857739857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292529054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2992091161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487162592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3784444406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4134197949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198196321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420292222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3782834956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970348499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014921198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089855138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877336706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950464867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053590413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962683795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263544367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3685429084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108301942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394868886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3788496747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3034197769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236080212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A4CBBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425893695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2570383134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246247594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1937308815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071263031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3328337311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.373936103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3223417135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426955197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717977495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059670436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169653959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268541505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877526475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347885391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3658374725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042735905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3180535903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333925275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031326517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107273536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXCAUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800294399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066441723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244921011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488011949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301660779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043347811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DFII20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083018974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3030041864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018115183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015066815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975543859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000764738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056595426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957071369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177403209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424243387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290474563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937810873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DHHNGSP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107896749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861693776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946159698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269702694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478031982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129277449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1719884584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859404607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920243708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232362436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3005380362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3043870844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2966261452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986742796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060918143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXBGS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920676168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232650749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3461696845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158644015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4276673423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4204658861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4404184914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961355105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127814644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261638024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2542436467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2089046245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4877424796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858552252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888553908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215478594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.130983045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1611329461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2369529162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MMTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468178892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102696396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011495684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE15US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30262242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732101407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2473401023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2197420365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953591936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2907259964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815056323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2984593648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929376562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1898247862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4955506297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686370143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784916627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943429962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093076533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5239122554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.480597214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2390276612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2322705901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2403547446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631204527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700150445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2539648934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"SP500","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293539453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198437371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507383037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3824901609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253789445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842570528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"TOTLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488243578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077906892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179980056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283305224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910211719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978767334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060337636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3731482259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717479717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669903475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2500479081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4003492576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1878938363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207515411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683670105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989791815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313022012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1341403063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1403030623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905219424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905776709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"010b47bbaa7da364dad379ac8357ecc6a7b74173db1edbe5e1460811e9098c7d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090872725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905225447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905793981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907442636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.177410557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1982377701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2309922219},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973244225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089062075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380061243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009042396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150611636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5716725221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981198747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.108869844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376333981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090539761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905801713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"1bf36264e4dd1b5888ab63799964466399ff5b54b8a2dfab336fc2b6b93e214c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909976342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904980338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905403064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"2525a40a08e2116a34cd952e86bf0817cfb4431a1cb2e88a645dc5587290a185","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906429425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905430787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906122617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910369973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905613986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907353181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"3603d5be46eba00d81d4dcee409a50885a1ab7acc49128d20b0847c12888082c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913781327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1112835189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209107641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1365217649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907329413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090973077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920507103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022346357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045073565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"49df3df4af8ed84e5e9c9ed5f8f91b804c54aacb3ada9aa917a5af2a67c72916","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113600187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508929644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528906405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594009401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905125806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905681368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907311345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904271699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904948516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908794868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301471013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1389063035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639651409},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904991379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905167697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b3b3daea3d3ddab8bcc4462169fece4ea5c5dcc9cf8d98f52d8bc4efff3d467","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906477389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5947618731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5308131382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"7bd4c6721da823b89d18611bc24498d2566aab30014f3c221d507a700da4af2a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4350057239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036834952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110380196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1323152315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904838057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906025326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911345765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5467004096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4924414739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142831788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520120521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555199966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693245026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903809451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903966873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"93b31b445760b990547b8faf13a1d90a4c7253740aed0e42d74e067e641084c2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904396472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319743688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.131256189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1392333935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905067329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905479555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906953624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.153350808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738406214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2080969913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a67901002a226895b47278a52d5b429858dab5b056cade86b2525d6845b3d709","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166380036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a67901002a226895b47278a52d5b429858dab5b056cade86b2525d6845b3d709","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287334235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"a67901002a226895b47278a52d5b429858dab5b056cade86b2525d6845b3d709","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456151934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905022188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905299256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906551375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880153582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009582303},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.120069812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090516992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905709836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af1719e4facbc21e03efea8315ce04cf3a6ab9dace4e5534b952f96e14e0063f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908527342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937790808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966021068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"af60e8d92ed933ab2a234879f7d583ea3db3c72b09f47d76fe5d6d3b7f3d09ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027495892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915426208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100397141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ba3191fe67f3420686002df6da16e07e8fd659695552b14d90cd6305973facfa","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223788963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904897798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bd9d8a912fb3f75a06cd3f5d063e80c1f8e47a6d6955199039ccf9ba15b6e34b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907254418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997163945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137081016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.597714148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905248537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905935663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"bf21328b2a7b5451358d108faa8c4c244853a2e7a04d18f9147656d269de3e34","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909469071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641301993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672608721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768562992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905036243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905718641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909009904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905363974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090643762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0908976813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09057517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907217673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"d10020e1d60273be946e2f669002958101893df71eec238ab37b4b7e43f3e8a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911411893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572152511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.167084632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1859162145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900835341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0940289774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169607299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274208865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1464378809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ec3328f161d3c6dbc3b2c17966ae939acd89542093acc38da2f7655d1e9a0587","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1819002503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.090493277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905211606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ee34f87f6d9a8d40de0c69aac8c86ef6e35278a05bbd8431cc1348f3313fc081","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905465537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903932728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904574953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907010996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6391212985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5795382111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1918974972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782454316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858726825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082982547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147880089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1294516033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6032184297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879352327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700491364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ADBE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3604918911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067239747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896640006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322413794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837328781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645026908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2434282673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"BEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969673047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"BEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285664104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"BEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747509867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898819614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3253886923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CAH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594582972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286399127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710111144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522527474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28925543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713997315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CINF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497628185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896473894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801462544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629560812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850888086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708521639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CNP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559782945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899245601},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277811029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3543756428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910304446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749912795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CRM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483113877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892761814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241504182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"CTVA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259060077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859240799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354709781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DHR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.241091882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017638877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096105978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"DVN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3204740388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040161169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166850728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3281016139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917712781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799310978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2654762141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882307795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363744111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2397381546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297115062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235325099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.351758333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092097018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283357464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310720969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053361834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801354832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658356465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074503767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.276946795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GPN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562663143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876911296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723479873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533735719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135008129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711065133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495250833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832145077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421885813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"HON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2364798858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889658685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321962967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IBM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634172963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120502743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315341638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"IP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554889912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872885792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759664642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2583782251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876136212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277964846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2586159385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125140261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711194526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KDP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516903199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003253167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894423148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"KHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785328627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885647804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251236151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"LMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503944613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931689243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2786663829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MHK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262423466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921208795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798679821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MOH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2613426662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920628913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812442844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650599926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2878734167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291098153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"NVR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2493332683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818743496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688076636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OMC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564380419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911770181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2759437242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2593436495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031597969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3172765577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"OXY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331163972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"PGR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169315623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"PGR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649007607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"PGR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.244098735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857522536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365669894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422453324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"SCHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286395915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"SCHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277675335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"SCHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3504927304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2871802715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725243821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562074341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916973299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2771907503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608007671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TTWO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841734143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TTWO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717175386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"TTWO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556636651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845462476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2681551655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479987825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289623063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765098276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621742665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990429888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835143396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"WYNN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685197587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877411787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702816576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"XEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495824554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295475388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2750531192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBRA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553102597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873762103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2739160525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3519450588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214244777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198165184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"085ad65ea78c233bd2751e83a48fca5d20c8c9d10868ebac09692725e692b19e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297748655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630750136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619119026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"091314f45a73a4953da7a727ea5606d21f2c9ed1e669596e4f18029949a9b9b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628145913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1a8cf53a74b9cfc6614ad866389f9a29f69d8a73c64531f903846d29297f173f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509697506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1a8cf53a74b9cfc6614ad866389f9a29f69d8a73c64531f903846d29297f173f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521303386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1a8cf53a74b9cfc6614ad866389f9a29f69d8a73c64531f903846d29297f173f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541636016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076560882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0772037681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779470058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846469196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609466498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4e38e6c1b15a095947818119b8e0c116cae2a4db771040d1ee85e3fbbb7759","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611159215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4fe6c25f4f8dc413630dcb35adc40f81c42a748541f8aa61d79b03fc9a5bf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979178411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4fe6c25f4f8dc413630dcb35adc40f81c42a748541f8aa61d79b03fc9a5bf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321451589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"1c4fe6c25f4f8dc413630dcb35adc40f81c42a748541f8aa61d79b03fc9a5bf5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982360994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"201ac64a00529b084a1a5599c91d1241d5df081a0860e630f28ee123978a0b05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079861101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"201ac64a00529b084a1a5599c91d1241d5df081a0860e630f28ee123978a0b05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990563684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"201ac64a00529b084a1a5599c91d1241d5df081a0860e630f28ee123978a0b05","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885048407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553172421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055870382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"274a20120661b1ee2f638a19e5c425aea6c60ea7b75b8b29b7d21d85e00edfc6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577250184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509257792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507701898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506271626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622097677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509298128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3e272d9d753c83953c629150251fbbcbd4137ab471719a0358320d340ad5ece4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516139515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3fcc16d757fd4ab8088ffbf74eee68a683aea0657b932d2aaa0848af268bbd93","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304208589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3fcc16d757fd4ab8088ffbf74eee68a683aea0657b932d2aaa0848af268bbd93","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3450046428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"3fcc16d757fd4ab8088ffbf74eee68a683aea0657b932d2aaa0848af268bbd93","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179354465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891989556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343131081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4476c4683b3d76dc10bc59d7ae2a7b22aa2a0b81eb2ce7bf33f77e9068dd17b6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3185994906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792665658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796999267},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"4b1e70e038443a845aaa4cbdaa7d0010174d8e1552bb8aa59b7c61a8295dd77b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0822290874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"594971c4da4cc1b0853cb4a66d66f18663649c2259bd9049d16c2d47ae830845","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189297265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"594971c4da4cc1b0853cb4a66d66f18663649c2259bd9049d16c2d47ae830845","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2226444388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"594971c4da4cc1b0853cb4a66d66f18663649c2259bd9049d16c2d47ae830845","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643589467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489294962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489296392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489443071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825090736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2658102294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"5b46d0bfa13c0cfa52aaa699e70b5205b424de3fd41c24e6ecebfef962f11c68","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777367015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"60aeaebf9803b4e98ad4fd1e8b47f425915b2082ecd4c47482f809c07149f525","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602543634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"60aeaebf9803b4e98ad4fd1e8b47f425915b2082ecd4c47482f809c07149f525","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609172794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"60aeaebf9803b4e98ad4fd1e8b47f425915b2082ecd4c47482f809c07149f525","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599914586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633833608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519686883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"657433f92e130ea85ee0fa23092a5b56e98f2b52147086344179c3a7dbd6bff5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526719564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958456194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980555693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"70aefb23d97555acf920fcdcc9ad6416b90e2e990f05fb3066383a1f7fcc956b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028880669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"78aa5c08a83e880c46c669735f49d554fe938bab17a200571b7ed39d57061af9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636940096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"78aa5c08a83e880c46c669735f49d554fe938bab17a200571b7ed39d57061af9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646254969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"78aa5c08a83e880c46c669735f49d554fe938bab17a200571b7ed39d57061af9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066297035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"79692c91ff95fc298034fb68b40e5e1348a2edc4dea49289cb42fa178b4f4353","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621074278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"79692c91ff95fc298034fb68b40e5e1348a2edc4dea49289cb42fa178b4f4353","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639264958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"79692c91ff95fc298034fb68b40e5e1348a2edc4dea49289cb42fa178b4f4353","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064948275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7b16ac49c3f4618236fd8ffaaabad8a50eb0d60c8e689c364e7618d5bb066d09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065385318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7b16ac49c3f4618236fd8ffaaabad8a50eb0d60c8e689c364e7618d5bb066d09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746717449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7b16ac49c3f4618236fd8ffaaabad8a50eb0d60c8e689c364e7618d5bb066d09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674806212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7e999232e3c6975548145b07f2768444af543cf52d517136fd77088b289b03f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766846799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7e999232e3c6975548145b07f2768444af543cf52d517136fd77088b289b03f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780832054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"7e999232e3c6975548145b07f2768444af543cf52d517136fd77088b289b03f2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810642044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"80636d98db7db43707218b6dc1014d9770571f8604159128f43094c5f17e44e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0879741668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"80636d98db7db43707218b6dc1014d9770571f8604159128f43094c5f17e44e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889770877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"80636d98db7db43707218b6dc1014d9770571f8604159128f43094c5f17e44e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092944054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497068917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494137331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493006574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490297721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490448811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490709213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ebd4baa35766dcb4178ca130850fa107eb8b0c31bf52964a5704c62d31679ae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619832333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ebd4baa35766dcb4178ca130850fa107eb8b0c31bf52964a5704c62d31679ae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505376612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ebd4baa35766dcb4178ca130850fa107eb8b0c31bf52964a5704c62d31679ae","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509217289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ec4363b05a62fa005feb9e7256c84a514fe6ffa599889e6590d4a9f427a991e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764509823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ec4363b05a62fa005feb9e7256c84a514fe6ffa599889e6590d4a9f427a991e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053156002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"8ec4363b05a62fa005feb9e7256c84a514fe6ffa599889e6590d4a9f427a991e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538600587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"98b628df321b43a81fb84bb161012e955a6f0679054d7f5fb63fe768200dd2e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497907499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"98b628df321b43a81fb84bb161012e955a6f0679054d7f5fb63fe768200dd2e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497298451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"98b628df321b43a81fb84bb161012e955a6f0679054d7f5fb63fe768200dd2e6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496865681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"99effe55927fdda5ff71f38875f3e17c0b286059ab7f34de1b2a6fbbe8ad906b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744970247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"99effe55927fdda5ff71f38875f3e17c0b286059ab7f34de1b2a6fbbe8ad906b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759698802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"99effe55927fdda5ff71f38875f3e17c0b286059ab7f34de1b2a6fbbe8ad906b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789696898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a28a1139cdb6fb817651be872c09d4607133b7e4ec4bafa018a7e5e0b23dad87","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489341669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a28a1139cdb6fb817651be872c09d4607133b7e4ec4bafa018a7e5e0b23dad87","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489581246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a28a1139cdb6fb817651be872c09d4607133b7e4ec4bafa018a7e5e0b23dad87","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490064834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a31cef507e61853411ec79a024f7a700d8ffdcf63fea111b4aed6d5c095536c4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623610801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a31cef507e61853411ec79a024f7a700d8ffdcf63fea111b4aed6d5c095536c4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511941982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a31cef507e61853411ec79a024f7a700d8ffdcf63fea111b4aed6d5c095536c4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524991716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497495492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496991274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"a5aa748caea44dda8caeb27ee28d9bd7222bbbe75adb908ceb510a7969582f7f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496353139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215658728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1344295474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399249442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508029214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517556434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"b14bf7c2c8b0295d2979580a100f83318ddc1d9c709488dc768f082d1334635c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533229863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789610702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803768745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bdc02d2039411e9e4fd27650a1a014f7549d7b4d8b59828433997acb956a8987","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809881991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9004322234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735581079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bee9b4f96f23d458deedbf4d273b0b0356790f020c737c06f66c67c3ccae90ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756849097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064561681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621885402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"bf20dee9de8bc31a7d6d1f25098298cfa844d267c0c4b9a9cab993f593e63c5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601814008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"c60ceb20ec94de9fc1625df8d7710c1c0b775b8be102d3bb2668ccc9e0ac3fd3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062201341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"c60ceb20ec94de9fc1625df8d7710c1c0b775b8be102d3bb2668ccc9e0ac3fd3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503936878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"c60ceb20ec94de9fc1625df8d7710c1c0b775b8be102d3bb2668ccc9e0ac3fd3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505812268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0738608419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735018262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"caa67b6bdc678845af6f776ba5bcf2ee8c0cd15de667dad6938a73d1b4772053","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733721632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855564032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086293271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849762765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3672357221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583569198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"cfb1f99217646618c04c2f69c4831d1a6d6e4fb87f9b5c0354e9acd02742fd7c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.365431417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616607933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497187515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"da0c3e27f3322b9dcd4a5185685640168a12fa7846b21aacc11f9918e466fda7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496172408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821093674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e01c189262cfb4dc4a2dc2ebbfde7ecfc484d3d07cc806cf4415761c77e5c66e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8407679125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e07b01bc6c3b45240c9361e57d0e69bfcf83edda464527199ab85e13b90ddf50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3568873026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e07b01bc6c3b45240c9361e57d0e69bfcf83edda464527199ab85e13b90ddf50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835530711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e07b01bc6c3b45240c9361e57d0e69bfcf83edda464527199ab85e13b90ddf50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972741335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552412058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057926957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e5073bb6a4000f12ce01b7c279fdd72f95561711548c300240e883da3699f17f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599090024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764271006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564173048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e6341e1ed10656b47ac291730a50ad23a56ba60feeba5375fc8eef0e8c12df24","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591687668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e63fd3a4f000586ceb18e2040dfe6a10077ef14d4936305dc15e8c3b36db8c4b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610441941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e63fd3a4f000586ceb18e2040dfe6a10077ef14d4936305dc15e8c3b36db8c4b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0611373205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"e63fd3a4f000586ceb18e2040dfe6a10077ef14d4936305dc15e8c3b36db8c4b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613453437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"f8ca99b4de1c397ccb77af3a72dd7e9f7dd65feae7bd2fc5c9d18d5d66f8ef19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725444668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"f8ca99b4de1c397ccb77af3a72dd7e9f7dd65feae7bd2fc5c9d18d5d66f8ef19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708649315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"f8ca99b4de1c397ccb77af3a72dd7e9f7dd65feae7bd2fc5c9d18d5d66f8ef19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3452608495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"fe04b3beca8f9c8781c85ce5db7b2b6c3f4b661bb30e095645b9dd4a16f97fce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627442926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"fe04b3beca8f9c8781c85ce5db7b2b6c3f4b661bb30e095645b9dd4a16f97fce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652934941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"acled","id":"fe04b3beca8f9c8781c85ce5db7b2b6c3f4b661bb30e095645b9dd4a16f97fce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679502825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275781594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0862898217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6295438638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838890253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1187280624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826653056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239140246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764079556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207544441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730171211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248291963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0793962408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224678415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840927773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621653869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797032126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942577089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1403466517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852287647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350664627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995428082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208206087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073350961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154558453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757506758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1966002446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213312377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1577512358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0893536236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370917237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0773103031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872910394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167796899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780662039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1463791249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004333565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1607323617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866483667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1424566207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766391619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1472981683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815083273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1353773536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791209533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143909197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768756999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543120259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804276643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336542277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789413547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6301274753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1192142086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1594541444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054239423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572955444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0992538543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606751118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797663925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568141457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834046383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1219402058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813640801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1463453831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771544792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052104457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07793891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283409122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868135904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4966285159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1964284871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585141515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1814322961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868723297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833673451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2312516314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.179546462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.432341412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334466424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713779361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829426107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2264458166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872802868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1641389259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158519383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429202927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986841807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1882438194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1257269322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1649203702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429834322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4050141437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2543979944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080212927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36697742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105041732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3415788544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ANFCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818764765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972355556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673659893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290845721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051453007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.328428128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.35746071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282503779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3389368548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3334312724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103594258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889858001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920089876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3945855826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4461688015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612144179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2522571462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271713624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"D2WLTGAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2925255142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28673616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3295467143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3058711637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117211979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301136711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520427726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940190966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788490997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3372548789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777729644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857930973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305389143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991674139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294525103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900735424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072282688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858334959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782958124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933660903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3028451164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998579639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3224169117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248870621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338847605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865017847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330729131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296674933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044845864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1130747605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1417091476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2616279148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2198560229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792954931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347042225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378925558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386081611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953052317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787096375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBASSETSW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803788998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2389040843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2498848291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.383660779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1562255547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1687748155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2033283028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108456061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084428584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098790859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062144941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967987121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139032809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2985067667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119607636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358243864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598096616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2133156088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4546157806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646231104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2517065608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2421046542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096471326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208887143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396887166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4232172128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2377342432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4012355293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899894553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904774665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090087096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824408868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270686203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603428137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272112882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589561554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3957391205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088868454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846009588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852594376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600385457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361359133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2220663175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006443618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2946017681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4788137587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4583784502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4236139899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4506948112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464759647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2647886549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312519433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271813749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512690152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.291522176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3265606254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069842154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982817066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949278116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"T5YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188847959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181293322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643671728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455544324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450157868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2181281345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956645655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5174188166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4950891242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.447928277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2972219902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.30143548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2991932387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936058403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302856497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2988198144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2505243002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2482570326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526711698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480056232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775893406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045343498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338756446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3669473668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4116611171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228761942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208570183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1431536732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919129414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919708979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922185341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917890306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918703849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920727553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919198466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924108316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.093597917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895407425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051464961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142872703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09187623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918911114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919794694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919425861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919894343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f5a42ad551f99dbef187a76fd94767165c2ea7070594696bede916853029019","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921686243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918794769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919085782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092002218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366151625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5455744833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3c53314baf24ff5c680b4010fa3711d077810d93fb7a446e1b1ad7735aee2016","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4692886833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918890394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919192008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"3f79fef8b53b581dbdebdc948503b3f98a289c621bada6d46bd83ef5bd526515","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920140835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974032422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930266783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"435f70fb95065aabb5a279a5c1e27442005176e42441fe75140479096d990949","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959649603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1362860878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1433612245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1839459951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.102389178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160995731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386454652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918796654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919228798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920116268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917711943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918325077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919738038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110089715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218427952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1537638712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918939406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919472983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"7d768dfd9c45e0a386a542f0f8e71760ccb8540803419a4eb15824a2a99c30cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920898693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167759071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240664917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471492427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091879515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091914531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8167f63d775c4d8fcd839c9508668f56d91e4925c2cd8717167f57ad1f553057","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920776856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918809398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919204747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8850b07d7643e65d4ac189cb0f0e02ec890e0f4c6c28f0ed31687c7abcd61e8d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920340291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732170862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788924468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097312665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918747608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091903657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092019722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918749499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919189037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"959b6aaf209f8aeebc8d606028930c9ffdcf7cc7c218762ceae689872c37e331","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920095085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0935506164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061727518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1228869091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243703661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5382618187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4652325254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155357035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6278035181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1863802296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1516018291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5906821116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236921244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917746488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918611805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a08ab7a8da73e5bfa8b5e081f2121c39cc9e145d7a8dc45d8b710a973f010171","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0922158497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091914942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920839656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0f7ccc411718188182aa504a06736515051d1c75312c77806caf08e51b651a9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926938596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8000be71eeeeba1faf969b8bffe6b925896c5b2b91a17186432ba5e1c4246a0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999975499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8000be71eeeeba1faf969b8bffe6b925896c5b2b91a17186432ba5e1c4246a0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052236915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8000be71eeeeba1faf969b8bffe6b925896c5b2b91a17186432ba5e1c4246a0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223677809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918762248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918952736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"b77a2fd36d28f8276f7fbd8cab839736c4c4b2b47953c4fc59421c019c79ad0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919989483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918807498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919138352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920297574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918658446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918812265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"bc15eb0f0fb842254b4977157a5d92d7c57514724c7197e095fca4a9076f2bd2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919145641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0938653933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7107802195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6532731246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1115897627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1568783549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2038099086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984414034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114528492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1323922751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918850825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919049899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"c9751fbf14e5207b9bb384bd7e28b66bd342fb1600aec0feb5312de3e43c83ce","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920546761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1298934706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.635999277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5465983579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076085573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159043226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278050788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962200156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151609818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5590439263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919113817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919830901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d455fb6d0ccaf27484700d10afcfe99b03acdb8f22c72f19eac825ad207108c6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921988876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218809405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1376866591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677123767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918760824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919359552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"df0932a080ff4b89f7bbded3df80186cd70d746fa565b9b9c6fe001a7dd81c0b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921069199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917509806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917578864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e38d9036894c7574f34ae300dbac617e07c4b132111d06d5c0b2768b49c4612e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917720336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920568081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963569395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5c8cf6650fd05b5886d299c9cd6c0462dfda4225c42739903f0ec1600d5e5dc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109711179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918843329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0919143096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920154955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169281972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1908709911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240588144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291003992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1488016512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926520567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004509596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185397758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"fc09de14d0727e2cb5d2a269bf6c2d9912633827d12c854944e01fa5e4641794","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500560642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067656466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6317990101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.173622276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888033814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770776285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262266896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250647237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2589690431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891236164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317751616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602732788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288955269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264263096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2368464136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818214883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656676542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"APO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2432070885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2932411059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272990527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521761628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979351715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869221836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"CHRW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764694816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888682875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272877038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ESS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540269543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296521637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126555157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743820865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833756555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723945475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FDX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548176255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874156367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699109587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"FTNT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2491123397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2834856399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684926497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250940356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863043028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731285565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561294594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102982194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707292586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524217923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902611971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2748424309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"GNRC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578589244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2852408901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306174637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2568803997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894584651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2777040125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621946012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913313341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761740772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578071523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891486997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738758077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"KLAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253444026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287653242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288372436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525048402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879965446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268933635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LULU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508491853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973795652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198848793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2623027845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862822484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3303646625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"LW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2548464957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837773828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2665334475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404360284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900496147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236153649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MGM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2646129422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880215689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322799013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652464196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969271593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105526973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217253532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924220848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794397366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"MTCH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2615173911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129365526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722639233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"OKE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560889723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774139537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428343662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732984465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855263431},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.333461063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634865807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841244532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321663037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PNW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2526767482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288156653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.330702746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506304032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057728757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3186429933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"PPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380866362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841240202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2659740639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2450188167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862269679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749189233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SBUX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578782702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874589032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758604115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610676279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095253308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326162058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474191329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2868450157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744370304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"STLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2578914062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885087891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3216644586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"SW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614703158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2881495811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322928587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3459531083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869437461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225936326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TER","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430412972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3178306525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335879136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TJX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3675424185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921501807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3225836598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436784792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859310153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701045398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"TXN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480144122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865566561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760617563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"UDR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601113894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214322286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3447141464},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WFC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.239544928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135615852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319123511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463000871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888758879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260750309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482964084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"045c57d5793d26c9d89b86a4603e3e41960ff1f4a2a7a787116d4d36a7bd8f62","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509383683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"045c57d5793d26c9d89b86a4603e3e41960ff1f4a2a7a787116d4d36a7bd8f62","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521753866},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"045c57d5793d26c9d89b86a4603e3e41960ff1f4a2a7a787116d4d36a7bd8f62","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537860815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"08a1e74afb494a3ded4c449ac9967e7f997bb7193ed58e536b81f2746b8ae8cb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2556434958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"08a1e74afb494a3ded4c449ac9967e7f997bb7193ed58e536b81f2746b8ae8cb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2336010636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"08a1e74afb494a3ded4c449ac9967e7f997bb7193ed58e536b81f2746b8ae8cb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685632136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"0cff82cd36b23adbe9c35fb926ab6ed4906e44e533bc76c30a6f5fcb8ab61a61","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363883773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"0cff82cd36b23adbe9c35fb926ab6ed4906e44e533bc76c30a6f5fcb8ab61a61","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374936568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"0cff82cd36b23adbe9c35fb926ab6ed4906e44e533bc76c30a6f5fcb8ab61a61","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3153512232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1639e296125d45437753b90e3635a3de44b52698dcabbf845246d903d881305d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4922932387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1639e296125d45437753b90e3635a3de44b52698dcabbf845246d903d881305d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4938091559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1639e296125d45437753b90e3635a3de44b52698dcabbf845246d903d881305d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4817911883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"16c419ceef0cb873100e0869345461e732f0c70279c881823c71fdc2982b006f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049425228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"16c419ceef0cb873100e0869345461e732f0c70279c881823c71fdc2982b006f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494746103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"16c419ceef0cb873100e0869345461e732f0c70279c881823c71fdc2982b006f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495942321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"17d6e7e67b02ad4eb3290404db86ef0ab2b1b4d72a4a8f1c24bd29a32f19939e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513256251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"17d6e7e67b02ad4eb3290404db86ef0ab2b1b4d72a4a8f1c24bd29a32f19939e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526966975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"17d6e7e67b02ad4eb3290404db86ef0ab2b1b4d72a4a8f1c24bd29a32f19939e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541990356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06571212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547121342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1c13719ba23f46950f7871d662127e0b573edeb6e830e73ab71c7a50da880dbf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579174818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674556001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069607172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e4b09b761a4a5184ec8781031add2f084f2acfbcbdfaef7c7673988af48e959","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762629959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076391351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631766697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"1e8a5e81ac4eff11e11bd1697307922b7ff9b6e08d1d37c1db897b41d0b13b8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631853646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2bd094d09ecf8f79dcfd3f910631eb7951b881ce174a95694ddbfea4c8d59f14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896570871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2bd094d09ecf8f79dcfd3f910631eb7951b881ce174a95694ddbfea4c8d59f14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0923023369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2bd094d09ecf8f79dcfd3f910631eb7951b881ce174a95694ddbfea4c8d59f14","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959097062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902392926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796924578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e1682928d6dd9a66fa0e030898cdc46caba891cc632f1aca17c8a087e6c3374","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815189059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e32b1509f2c6933db4ccdbae308a7dbd327673866d272cfce6efec3416cc5b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3555035028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e32b1509f2c6933db4ccdbae308a7dbd327673866d272cfce6efec3416cc5b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3769978742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"2e32b1509f2c6933db4ccdbae308a7dbd327673866d272cfce6efec3416cc5b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340656586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"30e33d123e0da894be67440a03f9d04103fbb778ced8b745993ee57444d7f194","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624138675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"30e33d123e0da894be67440a03f9d04103fbb778ced8b745993ee57444d7f194","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629467721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"30e33d123e0da894be67440a03f9d04103fbb778ced8b745993ee57444d7f194","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061362696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3da7e51404041a894414b3f269f468c815cc7fc2d85df0deef8ad617127637da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546342052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3da7e51404041a894414b3f269f468c815cc7fc2d85df0deef8ad617127637da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554448082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3da7e51404041a894414b3f269f468c815cc7fc2d85df0deef8ad617127637da","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569856158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3dee259133a61fead4da14e8856999b9d2e7c9565038752a44fbea531fe073f2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623482159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3dee259133a61fead4da14e8856999b9d2e7c9565038752a44fbea531fe073f2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498130042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3dee259133a61fead4da14e8856999b9d2e7c9565038752a44fbea531fe073f2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498409015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3fd7ab1f3b3f9db6da3013bc661874cd5806085a48b2575758122465e3e313b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0781767701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3fd7ab1f3b3f9db6da3013bc661874cd5806085a48b2575758122465e3e313b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801472324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"3fd7ab1f3b3f9db6da3013bc661874cd5806085a48b2575758122465e3e313b2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0820682214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"404bb1c055ceac91316e9ee545f31d0b8fc2afd426c543895cd4ff864f8f87ba","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625775998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"404bb1c055ceac91316e9ee545f31d0b8fc2afd426c543895cd4ff864f8f87ba","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626266021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"404bb1c055ceac91316e9ee545f31d0b8fc2afd426c543895cd4ff864f8f87ba","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062778517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4573457b7b86db4374a450870bd55e53857127b745bc94c9395e655877e6a9a1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272619261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4573457b7b86db4374a450870bd55e53857127b745bc94c9395e655877e6a9a1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3318116778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4573457b7b86db4374a450870bd55e53857127b745bc94c9395e655877e6a9a1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2730485433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4bd14c0b5fa5eb275f732e4c9556bdaaae3219f3a152dd8e6555d62e67d8cc28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523072365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4bd14c0b5fa5eb275f732e4c9556bdaaae3219f3a152dd8e6555d62e67d8cc28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539575767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"4bd14c0b5fa5eb275f732e4c9556bdaaae3219f3a152dd8e6555d62e67d8cc28","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560026665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506868809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509908343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5667d1d7a4170b2ae7efd79b166b4eb95d63a1991db9ce52406ce6ea7a74f845","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514133279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493793883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493795478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5b194a489803848654c2bb57d074abc6b917c747368857d12d4f672a20f6af1a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494126588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635057004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642166573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652556727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5ca405aed0a18361ce45a9840f54139258f736ab3323a2b0d5a8d5b029986c09","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6861674967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5ca405aed0a18361ce45a9840f54139258f736ab3323a2b0d5a8d5b029986c09","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6485749919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5ca405aed0a18361ce45a9840f54139258f736ab3323a2b0d5a8d5b029986c09","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2011063919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874945419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877929542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"5f437d89238ba3b30f988c3d7280f20003d242af1ef1a0fb943e486e3ebf3e0f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859898749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125258194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1148690926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6041ad121df11c802df748a652f7b6fc6b41c0c124abc15075465ae8debda146","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1171098626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6644410da1ca5a0de7f2ba1e28365ba42faa407db54f8b6b7e1d4d02e5d8e73f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636595043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6644410da1ca5a0de7f2ba1e28365ba42faa407db54f8b6b7e1d4d02e5d8e73f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649858266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6644410da1ca5a0de7f2ba1e28365ba42faa407db54f8b6b7e1d4d02e5d8e73f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661537913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6a03f90818843ecc1208164eb0ec51b8fbd9f8ef78ce992bcb7faa4b1a9907ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.236579792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6a03f90818843ecc1208164eb0ec51b8fbd9f8ef78ce992bcb7faa4b1a9907ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2437626354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6a03f90818843ecc1208164eb0ec51b8fbd9f8ef78ce992bcb7faa4b1a9907ad","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900968052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6df623c79fda03ce7d022dacfa34aab06da979351449d1d323a48cb9697a57f1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050576425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6df623c79fda03ce7d022dacfa34aab06da979351449d1d323a48cb9697a57f1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505350576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6df623c79fda03ce7d022dacfa34aab06da979351449d1d323a48cb9697a57f1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505064966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0768250569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780893498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"6e2a6755b011a2942868217d63ede0bcb2dc03a8bf80939c16927d04a0a47b04","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770766711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"7487d61f13baa3bf2e639bd2f48994f57f5713eb2a67e1a5742bead5339cc864","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498797773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"7487d61f13baa3bf2e639bd2f48994f57f5713eb2a67e1a5742bead5339cc864","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503222703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"7487d61f13baa3bf2e639bd2f48994f57f5713eb2a67e1a5742bead5339cc864","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508869391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2422408338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2494279404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256673249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"981bef3585c494c4603867cc402d6c9ef056c37cfee24acec243d94f82485b1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554948637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"981bef3585c494c4603867cc402d6c9ef056c37cfee24acec243d94f82485b1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548224869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"981bef3585c494c4603867cc402d6c9ef056c37cfee24acec243d94f82485b1e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547228581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525173391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543460372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"99f588e6c99abd595cf5966b589ee96d47b79f60e1fe4a6854d2c202707fa254","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569804973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"9c7beb65b6c4b3457faf09d8c99f27bd6062a193c9091e6b2ae6a53f9a8d34cd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114777828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"9c7beb65b6c4b3457faf09d8c99f27bd6062a193c9091e6b2ae6a53f9a8d34cd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11089956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"9c7beb65b6c4b3457faf09d8c99f27bd6062a193c9091e6b2ae6a53f9a8d34cd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617265242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0755691446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625426609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a28b2d1a63257b23fd2bb19e192d2901b2a972fea6043c240edd9395c29a2e46","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628432338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a8a7fc86a269ca15ea738b118bb42567102d889fa73913b812e4f89c853da9af","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743242991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a8a7fc86a269ca15ea738b118bb42567102d889fa73913b812e4f89c853da9af","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3696520284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"a8a7fc86a269ca15ea738b118bb42567102d889fa73913b812e4f89c853da9af","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598819797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bc8c8f107eac1ade990ff5abc2020a8126ec5cb3c8897db8ed32de5a96d25e22","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539698216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bc8c8f107eac1ade990ff5abc2020a8126ec5cb3c8897db8ed32de5a96d25e22","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557891639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bc8c8f107eac1ade990ff5abc2020a8126ec5cb3c8897db8ed32de5a96d25e22","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632425376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bf9abc2476086723f72539ca9db3d73e1261aa7de447646ead8e5c27b2cca27a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496911324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bf9abc2476086723f72539ca9db3d73e1261aa7de447646ead8e5c27b2cca27a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504218811},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"bf9abc2476086723f72539ca9db3d73e1261aa7de447646ead8e5c27b2cca27a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514336972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0684c0b09437d77fe266f52a8b25e428038e678ef9fa3545cfd8e197ba6c325","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570240769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0684c0b09437d77fe266f52a8b25e428038e678ef9fa3545cfd8e197ba6c325","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055055153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0684c0b09437d77fe266f52a8b25e428038e678ef9fa3545cfd8e197ba6c325","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554295796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0f9f6a66c4c0ac4b5888673ca374b35992ccd55c8162ac9de743ce4fe266a50","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081585178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0f9f6a66c4c0ac4b5888673ca374b35992ccd55c8162ac9de743ce4fe266a50","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803587914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"c0f9f6a66c4c0ac4b5888673ca374b35992ccd55c8162ac9de743ce4fe266a50","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842184802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ca33d5830fc9a1a48825e23bd6cc813b91b919a8ff212282741659dcd9f5141a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518266988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ca33d5830fc9a1a48825e23bd6cc813b91b919a8ff212282741659dcd9f5141a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519334036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ca33d5830fc9a1a48825e23bd6cc813b91b919a8ff212282741659dcd9f5141a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522995648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6266232306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367002467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d5f1e9c92dc961c7fefdaef3655bc7dc38816254dfe1043bb4244faebb22ad94","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269470494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d9435db4467e2f0be5f782375a27aede5dcda4004b6d2d85aa5032af75687012","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670769103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d9435db4467e2f0be5f782375a27aede5dcda4004b6d2d85aa5032af75687012","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559967465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"d9435db4467e2f0be5f782375a27aede5dcda4004b6d2d85aa5032af75687012","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585926839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524382458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530280893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"de810b550ca9cbea5619bea116f1c8b00a9afcfcd965a349fa90f0a45ee324cc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543396945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939975199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1003248769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e0f76685b373f0a78fc81e0f2ca310945c121e6113daa0394ee00e0a276c7a0a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153551524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e2d26a4708e70f3569952805fc2ed4b79f4bd6ecfd8c61e2e4e1a760e619caac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511796792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e2d26a4708e70f3569952805fc2ed4b79f4bd6ecfd8c61e2e4e1a760e619caac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518365874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e2d26a4708e70f3569952805fc2ed4b79f4bd6ecfd8c61e2e4e1a760e619caac","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527452956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063696829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636453988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e6750dee35cefca653620998ba97516000ce7fbf2c00d12b16f30b145daea25d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637551052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551492081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564560706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e83211cf1de33090261c74bc976922a40bbdfc87b41a05e9d5e5cf23bf2ccbef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591637139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e911c0badd1c86c49d1710512dedaadfba405894ad853fb06bd98fbc6b01c139","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646266365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e911c0badd1c86c49d1710512dedaadfba405894ad853fb06bd98fbc6b01c139","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670449813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"e911c0badd1c86c49d1710512dedaadfba405894ad853fb06bd98fbc6b01c139","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700162069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ebd72561491f441d98dbf704f97d8a7eebcfc43370106755d009bca95a1157f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507899261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ebd72561491f441d98dbf704f97d8a7eebcfc43370106755d009bca95a1157f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509484447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"acled","id":"ebd72561491f441d98dbf704f97d8a7eebcfc43370106755d009bca95a1157f4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513239293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816337752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802214735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960454413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287232404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855969743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246117426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915544837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178812699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114847095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891229213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.176858581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113714955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984191118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392853725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1554885553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891241845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4659237835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278168635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041167226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4470712463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.124182635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840964784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.459603452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195349832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826170354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1901401434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197090547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059296968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2055511232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320725999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969283002},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101218976},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210682934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787279777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124019995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1231825469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771415994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130264953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307989647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081314948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5658802089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173466174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798333625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4559830555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1265308907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842070589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4323842307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314260994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887057572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1888069522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1140970952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759664448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2067423423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248486917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844028904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5222092676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032952903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788240844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2214986503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246823912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939863092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5541661966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036687763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821022383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426603358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1552383746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041705655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.533250146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996167344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0762482041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5007968762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163744749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748584202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4540532799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605488779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932244536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4398372796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502161055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032020248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5044415871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207517271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911714254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211378415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382904849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930091368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2120176118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380919723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778656491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5139448109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267688097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857597136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1933014987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166151854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011388363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123457787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760382698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1256484103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4997329046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427961769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0905808377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732394438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1953191159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1643064512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787700136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250876583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2160918566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2680081224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981705383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2555193289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244182959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.237843774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899651535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739964956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4217518743},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.182549254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157296248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2687518104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290764639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2392989861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093966435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1854263923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3600598882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288853353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2137865593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2167076553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743228162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1239799645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2385546078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4966960175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121537823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2034562441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740701809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401328356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2180470948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823840994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634895294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707833595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3378568201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278525702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238618757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343883476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017404951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282689787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679868966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633234384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947107845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2903820208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859572416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130510735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3343344195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3621865445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191477736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3460941724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816620895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088150453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008205586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859522975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064834953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292904172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714467877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316753237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753018622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643016971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321389514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3394951952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3753913461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110005042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32767282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3577167337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900252203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.315423238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275381215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.284096001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3298475264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.349051739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3002911837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983515105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949253236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2928457705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049554557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042382648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648508533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2400053515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121338034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926774695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1114899411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152506978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483106603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2161552159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797371635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914228697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939666715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165477126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480892022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561023078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774617497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1699338954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1788545853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2215537188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918160031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910073699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113007155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790016174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057990554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2982415454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023104095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3014758095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3270890934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2598991493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479273845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911155817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937550805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305192102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3425137501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"IHLIDXUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3580416205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767051066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561463729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2314059578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4533434296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958468594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123127371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2689073237},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492389434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.177304729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1872296788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.223533535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846812851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774666048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272670003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891204673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816899259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278897606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130828788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048626106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224175102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3835193964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3386079003},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493735776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.335013634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105426443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3217992638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880806763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2520657168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224563948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324558926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.248511735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195811266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284111475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3467437174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869616252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3271335893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3381743671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284031649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1911186444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526332643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5328641327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4958424577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"TREAST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4541609469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994280959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059718336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"VIXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312797457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179891558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3545492706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3522225716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.420907397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2373256598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254306418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914361906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846492539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2666605413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518016094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359995586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2010549815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4366681574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1782359553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WM2NS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1484291748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930938116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865067543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WRBWFRBL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2815796378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891557911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1985964225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118646162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966236141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966862916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0138a4e78eddc4613dbc98a6ab5a4db9ba30d9ca7118805a5ee6c4ed1e673b47","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967991688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1336485289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383643883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"0ebc517c2b923093d530d91187d38873cd5ae3b4e79b02f8c726ade19cc0fb71","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1669016536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966326121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967222451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"1136efa42c5d7f76d1d728374dcf42ff7bccec4a1ead6bfa8f6cd6847f483eb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969445641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7638339612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.713980052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5971017973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964905606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965328396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966132598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966866656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970135667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"19fe79dd3c949d77e31f598f3012001f0ec798dae23ab312f28e40ad40a80046","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980601591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119358896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.13265383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162352323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479066351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.155780436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926072979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132061205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330853627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"274e2a09f7060b8ea234c1d6a91ec3e43b523a2911042a8696ac2b42fc531ca8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1564067611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109632756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096644933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"2763fcdcb26acd3051a7685b0ddc8b0d9d0093f9f41f4c49a6c9b9a64eba73de","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098344991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966130855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966770339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27b3562010fedb45de26cc72b0f1dfcd422aaa195c5c1acdd369833f55a2ac51","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967913529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453481664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.156005206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1981460272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966012222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966493103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967850376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966171514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966599094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4093ea3dcb75afc668a669812c21296be9ce9b93593413b060d51c61133ac505","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967897197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966119297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966866214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4e9244fd658bf1e286f52541539fbdaaf2440059a622bd6966f082167b4ce179","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971010401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4ec5d08b99659843a99747d85dbf544392876326027e06e94c7d454f15bedbc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7802634327},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4ec5d08b99659843a99747d85dbf544392876326027e06e94c7d454f15bedbc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7075518283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"4ec5d08b99659843a99747d85dbf544392876326027e06e94c7d454f15bedbc4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6008238773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966119297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966913309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"50abbf7c2acbda969cec1aea9302662569b1d16e397b8301e3de20ebae393720","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968778921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096524519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096602577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968010373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966026643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966138224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096674718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966405596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967348242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971560952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312892828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495612262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1817755583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1951669765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2173969885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2411976914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903544659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049744195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238289364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966077718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966395196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967247899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096644876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967144049},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6a1db1f9778fc5a45d290bbc14fbdd0594da68b8d8c94afb1ef7c1d7ac4d5537","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0969861437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966430333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967750895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974094784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944163682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052954769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227536305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966759817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967381532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"712254290f4fb3ec29aef6451f2e13327271a6b0ad5c6eb741790534b364c893","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0970768835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017388979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128653786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"85d7ed10a6d383c81abc6955e6bd3804afc545ef6d4de46b3e124840fb1781a2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1312892834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965033471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965507688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967717721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1129008528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1253852485},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1642068768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639134949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071012337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956519655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964748224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965066282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965968353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7178203489},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6692564709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652647872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966381385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967701405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"92bc6951fbbfb5e57841214f3b0c0e102d6a1c8e8d052925262a27e18f26f309","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097104147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378604335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382854398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455539686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.645439508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5741800945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"98293d96d72cc181fde43e3d8c9692a88f882f11135d9b971d18fdedba497ada","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.488318505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096601349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966088307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9d6816578f7adcb1e66eae05cd291216e812656e831c2a6f009143d5b0bfa898","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966390038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7717685173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6806619032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1616857868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310379639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1545816814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1900454178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10674813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264875806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1852650838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09659728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966332116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967466275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966118887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966504829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bb66140460a30e52c40df6caf0cc2132290b84d1349935b21dc8db4bec5a0bb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967419574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964798373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965272501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966067987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6868446218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6400705472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"be40b31eeb9702e5a94cd3418b7abfe0d3a314ee09c1f36d77e82270e456a36f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5626873599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200062214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282168694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"c76424a0e0e742fb5e9691f25c2f48a070fa3b3e08aa9163b365a2eb48815acf","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142885508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6549790965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6055442372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5096804205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6820040284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6451034812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5802656777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6398086659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5713181766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4662955667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897376707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272089038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AAPL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.249111954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789001992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2590922828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ADP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2461271783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3220260646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3430293952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2402068735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2947441434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222066224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427435152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088157641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3239483202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ALGN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444592731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848010717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742451944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"AMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431834367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874114204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3205909796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"APTV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3363950097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867203343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2697848663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2504220787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103046368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211675022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BBWI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3326792675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853949037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252295264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397575112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113440901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3263142352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3483245182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074931697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104396462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"CHTR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190967989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850427048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326763196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547253511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886000589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3254134133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3387067889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151424264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725215068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481081989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085866692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747028099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DELL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2592588492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859632676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296705061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"DOV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3556327648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901970341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737759286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"EMN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3480544406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857034515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ETSY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773497204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909143081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844599259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"FOXA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282520359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3176257151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267076028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435573412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902291728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2783821666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"GILD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3421199057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138384098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272663767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"HRL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2558368013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102780767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764010898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IFF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608789036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863080426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725512039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565538211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120331066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365770687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"IQV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2456029954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809246402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3351740564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"JCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2530204532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784955281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2609001008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2427803243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2936381146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.318785897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"LYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3375812001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070017851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166833858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3330675499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3146811544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2773061443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MPWR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3388132174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814794991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715653611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MRK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259388448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861086994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2721821614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2567506027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139373162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32640896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3507824556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864187262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3268592201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.346250222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872126729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2675997735},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"NXPI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459413366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933543482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790648891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ON","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3442165398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760132061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428767613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"ORLY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3727746119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170767356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335371566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PCAR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452519177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093251015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241025371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553273736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062773739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762760781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553501503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835848761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692800792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"PRU","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2497443815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3182737204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346820973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3613951522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114718397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.326679027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3524437582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124797241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2704363666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3529324424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077617853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164780308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3288955637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125073241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3291749038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"UHS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3502995626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286937404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756108805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WDC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2634290997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810861833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3366632515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363494907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"076a766cf8e85cd5dc367bf989166be71e8458249368a451b7893bc1d0f83f45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634044687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"076a766cf8e85cd5dc367bf989166be71e8458249368a451b7893bc1d0f83f45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478109513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667228397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0ba9035d5decb9528c784d2824f9eb84b64eb1860e4ebe7bc263c5e6787a48b9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659791486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805587963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"0f227969fe8bd73b70dd1652c9d80059ef9e7fbbafe1e86366e9c3f7b00a28ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050054132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"16b6b2d6b0524288e77d850f3fd49e0262f80c3c4db87aef8629f11f65ba7341","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077414722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"16b6b2d6b0524288e77d850f3fd49e0262f80c3c4db87aef8629f11f65ba7341","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064434757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"17bf9a8162c4f43f85c30166cb1c89010cbbcc40d493cbd0c7adfa8c3cd9bc71","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0789348014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"17bf9a8162c4f43f85c30166cb1c89010cbbcc40d493cbd0c7adfa8c3cd9bc71","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651324034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003022333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3018819165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1bef4564f4cfb6584c8cc1cac8c89c57e2e82600d00cc58e17be6d33cee7b7f4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860739063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1bef4564f4cfb6584c8cc1cac8c89c57e2e82600d00cc58e17be6d33cee7b7f4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0834916633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489794475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1cd3eb2885aa031e2fccb89e40415a0a5b899b49991ccb89e5ebdbe45df4c98d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492265093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1fbf577afda5b0891151aa0174330d3ec91de24c9a6c881445dba3f6f314dc81","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768659483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"1fbf577afda5b0891151aa0174330d3ec91de24c9a6c881445dba3f6f314dc81","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463766962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"23ab30f9734da7edbc4838a872fa2ef0274774b65efee6f92d0d4a998c4933a0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4132858123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"23ab30f9734da7edbc4838a872fa2ef0274774b65efee6f92d0d4a998c4933a0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2297430213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"269a3a5bd70fe9e4af011b3f26eeb112df0385df596a67b3a938a32ce2495721","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476036375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"269a3a5bd70fe9e4af011b3f26eeb112df0385df596a67b3a938a32ce2495721","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476232037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"28478119ab181fd9019368d78d144aa8dfa662f84671a89e75ac643445c21285","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083357206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"28478119ab181fd9019368d78d144aa8dfa662f84671a89e75ac643445c21285","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077866596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064381093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"307875fbd2b627ff1a2401416cdb61f93732d6fe26066b6d06f220bce14b36a8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048649264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283944679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"33342b89d642c0bfe67f5789010fa7fa504789f2bb708a4716075d81cc312c31","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3354817884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428372684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"337bedd10c1c1dce4b5497f8dca1b33c0303654487c461d388bd899c2b5493ae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3448605129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"35ccb22ea8b8d2aa9fdabeaccae262c3fc1dc26fb72a2a4657e37aa73b5cbf9c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489870456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"35ccb22ea8b8d2aa9fdabeaccae262c3fc1dc26fb72a2a4657e37aa73b5cbf9c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492684904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"39df714ca36db283593daf16352f0520ad6c2f25800f99688c2fe0ee1c16e297","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989933255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"39df714ca36db283593daf16352f0520ad6c2f25800f99688c2fe0ee1c16e297","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2885586039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4218b41e75468427fadcd2d225a4fb238b8c17a230ee2f0d95875a8eb4c1c88a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954058808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4218b41e75468427fadcd2d225a4fb238b8c17a230ee2f0d95875a8eb4c1c88a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0828102902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944401991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4d5299262cdd63960ec1fef62ee0893f238443fcb914cc3fa1c92e4f15b61cc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788216792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4dec27704b5d0da5f083e0f663099b6fe28910c035902a5a657d5e84f18e3cb5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199095809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"4dec27704b5d0da5f083e0f663099b6fe28910c035902a5a657d5e84f18e3cb5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520766807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004531965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"5932fbd2a5b1c25113929c442e4df8f8ce6dfa4013bb37cdc4bd28a3dc143018","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848157392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134215192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7618bfe9ea3faf2b1fcafc7d860dce9b58eb0c9ef6a29af004b5976ab59df30b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142290795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641745591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"78d6917390816489f411fbbe13dc5bb599199fa8018654ae6aec2f536fec2217","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641604967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7fc4c84931b8311d58d4aca5e99bc870c33882baf0d7081a655e430f9068a07d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677400188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"7fc4c84931b8311d58d4aca5e99bc870c33882baf0d7081a655e430f9068a07d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682714548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950049614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"893a3f3e93093c211b9d69c9bad46cfd062dd68bf59a8a66cc73a89e2bf7b8b4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306324618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633359296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"897df10eea1ce69116cdd575c9757746a702d275e4c467583952653b767385ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477237571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"92615fedcb5c96dfece1802922933becf94b8c2b85ec2939f3167693f69f0da3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963047534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"92615fedcb5c96dfece1802922933becf94b8c2b85ec2939f3167693f69f0da3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963999406},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477423883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ad6e543adcb486b3f1155624e23640457a18412e271cc670deea7f5ec3503fa6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477428883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"af9470738a635cd334f0f515ac570b58624fd0529608095787e369493d8159c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642924657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"af9470738a635cd334f0f515ac570b58624fd0529608095787e369493d8159c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643569655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662757103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"b9da3ef2599e110e9db865b3f96a9685295efa58f13d4a75f5e687e4037abe83","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508098775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623466741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"bad17045f7fa6c1dffcf6834aa4f962602ec354b47364e81aa9fa22734e4c567","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642236309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c38e4a81bad91c72d15836582bcc3db9787c08aa7ae315dc59f8eb3a88ba961d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803064845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c38e4a81bad91c72d15836582bcc3db9787c08aa7ae315dc59f8eb3a88ba961d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838194749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c443a68b7d144e27d2c5b174b5c0e061bc59977d05a33d5538f63066d25ea62d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846334102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c443a68b7d144e27d2c5b174b5c0e061bc59977d05a33d5538f63066d25ea62d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858712193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c7a353d94b2e02cba4c52dcf69591f7aa3f53070585c4a8df34f6c5dedd3a0da","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514716038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c7a353d94b2e02cba4c52dcf69591f7aa3f53070585c4a8df34f6c5dedd3a0da","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512719425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c9194e8bb2c6498cfd5cfbe0dda6ad9abc96f2bad238376ba1ec184684012785","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838336624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"c9194e8bb2c6498cfd5cfbe0dda6ad9abc96f2bad238376ba1ec184684012785","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0858961568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193300031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cafd095fe3a221cf37cc55b60c476dd9ff579bc01e10be2d9d31cfc6273ae60a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1240373652},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080006111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cc4304e857488ac2b535a3f3ff91aa3a0fde3249cedad93214da851c7bf56461","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795051125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cf205a4d2778a0dbd770c811f5a3c033d597ff71ae5d55f318ca9317070ec1fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4015327958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"cf205a4d2778a0dbd770c811f5a3c033d597ff71ae5d55f318ca9317070ec1fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3406080245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d1987bf8e68d672699f241cec5bff86f857b524493f8bebeba5696655291fdfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067281395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d1987bf8e68d672699f241cec5bff86f857b524493f8bebeba5696655291fdfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689932029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d7e8a91dc6cc636691572f76f5e5ab6e621ff811ede5e221c869eb81e1784ba4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103257283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"d7e8a91dc6cc636691572f76f5e5ab6e621ff811ede5e221c869eb81e1784ba4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036029696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412963494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100528796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2703097162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"dc24b0eb186a7a757609f2553b7a114b5da0519b9cda7d46cd1364c8834b70aa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2525357647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e40b9081df9711358970d6902d6f6bff35cb6597f758c0f16752e2e387a80c1f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2904537873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e40b9081df9711358970d6902d6f6bff35cb6597f758c0f16752e2e387a80c1f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990148889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093454497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"e53dabd31f71786f3b044bd12e498deee5a732a43de2d9be7468ebaced466977","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078622663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481560778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"f276efc923dff4849790e5a7dbdb597edf7b4bc17671cfbbcc0d0efbb13b7cf5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481477697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648987772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"faaeabfcb98f1c0d56b9d78df09baa6e69a75e0e284ab2288f64c4de369dbe0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504126442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647588396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fbdfb73d1acf919ac1adcacc5727cb44936d22164d54ee0a264baafd02e0efc0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503778164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fc8c89612c160995d9bf5c352fd9aa5c7959b467eab0b5ee94994be4f1854e0c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3274643103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fc8c89612c160995d9bf5c352fd9aa5c7959b467eab0b5ee94994be4f1854e0c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212658272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fe1798e96797bd884e6b2b9c4561c59cb0eb2a9a3911b42b6958cdcf9badc5cd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633419227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"fe1798e96797bd884e6b2b9c4561c59cb0eb2a9a3911b42b6958cdcf9badc5cd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633419245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ff0e19f8da2c05da5995eb6b145301092ae9f6991d0ff1a4ca84b8562163383c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490044449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"acled","id":"ff0e19f8da2c05da5995eb6b145301092ae9f6991d0ff1a4ca84b8562163383c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500125046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4651169555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340335255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981851857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4267015748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181091314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0906274564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285894566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313210329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944961333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490066478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189673791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859614066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3877258974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5898385321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129064789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4890104599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196023148},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890398982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4219021567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1320335309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000711181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4182997082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6267634314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964086281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3975949335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6146768827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898023961},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3915183903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287804548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900336455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3505540161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.573579913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963647628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458719648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416662869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1021864449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4122572437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5910728413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105100896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4057284782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6434258859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975023751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4062500066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6120267264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911023926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3397352349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.162899503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141585797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3811326316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212030914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063961008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4162488435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6530321097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270414195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455510391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5512348616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078710968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3856703875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350051324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104835897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4148567528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1169233265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142663919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689852129},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6430946368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1269085449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4153499937},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1289244202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997220295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3597471682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581312053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134585816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3663454947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499910564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105066417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3725442725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465170668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121335852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.339088985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459250712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262207968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.398496977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.621967193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909773929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393307786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5559710006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0991273707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3816122507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504068374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102789028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3929425958},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1969022764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1913585415},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3888214506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1133273319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081597731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3086116903},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1598461061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167898225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4365515572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238038659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1015948014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770018855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2267895224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101645678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.404001539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2679269102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1672834348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702078812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717643998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3125955384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3503454354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2459707201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2386269901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944317795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.445604455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822913404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3900714893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2162110933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1727034543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.363758803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210520381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2065333277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2303372025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.170114677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1514725404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3694766332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1909896201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1357960206},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4067765315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.529744946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264397962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670706626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4920512989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.160239704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3765940941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1899160118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427730066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3489106553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858893612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834419647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3131267869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3026455655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841944232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3042623447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358883952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3812392863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029973115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3249520732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3552561919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035456785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864440564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2EY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701109158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950014325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3237701763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A2HYB","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622806766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2893429103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847675278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857867658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978986891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3144755726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722787234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3008938358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190270555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIOAS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3491646159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.331495843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3708583712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2014356084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309661618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2827462244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2566178505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2999624688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921793916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744362964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909223598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259537738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3518266559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017472888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3113884803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193885822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.084045699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010721273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1395370671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962851005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867049369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274215471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911448359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912354568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896026201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302356306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013915419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007102476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3017855232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.292754738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282685887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063216942},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039164033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1225830546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897019669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2618174357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DPSACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295550179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600050862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3583515009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362514136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.275000116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802866714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"DTB4WK","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091234884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2990855293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967164039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274279922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3706345468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"GASREGW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750462411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1198087623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"H41RESPPALDKXAWNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197195555},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864158558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2795677776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3684247355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338188896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3607814014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121439611},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3236540224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3473233297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2304051333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2900816979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888125839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095594133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.320671467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553430263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287115072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2889865831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826325658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274473892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854785912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743766007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735499161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934741293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816517028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIVA30YF","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722642742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229477823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443394728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2285906698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2989404182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853894789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2917553448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968187046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3207808142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2487985088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370639518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4026687382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264614875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2943281739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202621948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2674525005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3615514436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"STLFSI4","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4044457592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1822856282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980513872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"SWPT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237140687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309590476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260479909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486438138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3899998955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4265959983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"TLAACBW027SBOG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.170783893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864713677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866875854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"USEPUINDXD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288524378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2846233244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782950848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3252582719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081998897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090670345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3132526677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.421232726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4048307616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651049814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035134597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054169235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3060669418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4350306301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3956135631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WORAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837561405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636753213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WRMFNS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2431253545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5371071882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.509111643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4666233529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3067241855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120592662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"fred","id":"WTREGEN","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3007965702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103990233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041279202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"03db6b3b50eb1718de13b4537b3b01187947d1743d8c25c4e7348a05ba1f476e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043547945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038032392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038618067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"048b354eb4a2d24ea29fd579964f996a67e3acb40f67a3f9d6d41d8d431be560","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040639528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039904205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040971252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0648b066e360ba11cc3e3971672e67ef2401a8497cc3d6437c66184041f48d8b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043684245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039592956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040540729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"0d2b133c7d77ed33197368f9375238e4f02bb858403478f340f654173792e2c1","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042622492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299147867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459522429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801208997},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071086614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166351354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1b12215032357c20078f36029eca8e2c67788d7834cba572d712b7d769a288ee","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350913351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039652487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040907729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044386227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095023424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1195960648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1416522547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116227116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.118429818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361006448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050040428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075361609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1124258975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104690168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051659167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"49f838083a15df2741b0b3ca6a9964e621d3f71ad50793a0b6cb7ad4745cc390","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071880987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480192047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722244296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5224953965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127605726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243187207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"585e3caf472aee5e1f6175c850a7752c43ae486a3e6dc7cc3debe1ba847d83c7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146131036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040046705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040757347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5b1e224969367d47ae6856711b3f9d1335671d330c6ad42ac64f2803cf2a350f","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043888094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039763337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040211254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5c604eaec56ff1219f73f41b0658aa89cf7d475dccf07e22c801da7563ef2bc5","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041336851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267507549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349124854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1526584747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.191441453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.500538805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4353950054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097978768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267776086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733216618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044874192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104861295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"62556cf51abc14f53aeb1d98c5ebfdf9bcda241f98f0538808d5c33aea76e95a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1059463052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040027955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040908596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043885594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039093139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039846443},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6c4fc7461e8c51a54d4ef4e03d00a08d0ec3b2651f7f48d5f8ef4224dbbf7933","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043925394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039620856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040551722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042826222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447023089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1539349712},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1667974986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038154835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039286082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7137b3cce09a895b6d044bcb106e43d258bf323aee0b44ab216ed41935587790","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042941091},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369585175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1480959871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1660584381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890832514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014670302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243689016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1640959435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1806583983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"80622d988880cea15ff86d0eae9dc576026cbdd12ab2a6fca8c18795c26e3b02","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131708096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801271497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2098645686},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4867513133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039546081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040218111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043416696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601691455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1734379495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.197932118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1410772562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1495022333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784459043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039979205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040906721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aa891f1f350d0d5e590dff3bdb7f1df495cd195d71b9b51442633e9a16476a0e","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044500493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181023814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1319660936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaadedc56af38da29e04e6086cdd03ebd3844f5c88aa7e2d20c5c5388f455141","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1577912107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039404269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039595569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"bbdac4e818e7a8d828669c585bd78abc8ec5d627fb815cc00bcc7b90c7a32fb3","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039941456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976211248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049648547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6463571279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624162605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1954661704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c28f340263644425dd87c3cf915351620e452358d2118a20e27fb20ba76cfa64","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290832662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103816921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038693584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c834eeadf075bd754f6beed34c60b69b3bb2937378d694eaadfd3bc2ab0eb99b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1040311704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330898405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465647413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"c8c9d8e957b21aad9595e05489ef0a157621c079c5666495bb702c6be0582125","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1703709263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117815984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452981896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"ccb75c44436ebc9d35d79e03799e81be999dde80d339866b8ca81c3a125f41bb","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5574467722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039917987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041075665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d19e7dae2cc81341d2a1863ee45319a0430d345e8e2d9a987c3d4f2659dee954","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043638364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1303898479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511334788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855896348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.103998108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041053108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"d9367995f33b1ce8276658ff68100030ed007cedfdc0e29cc1e70868ac7c2a5b","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043901851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1065461004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134773315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335210269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038421084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039163582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042073593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1926333656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152833038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2496332101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104939143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.625661424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5261931336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043026697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1044844211},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055992436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.112196085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315085323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fbc957258e4d6de0fbc809180959d294831a87aa87d0749c599b5fb52f17d967","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1594522061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1039784856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041172746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1043856376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865133006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270648346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2534720215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3101980586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2775292194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2594679476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3155643969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"AWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2685979835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160994891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347194683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BALL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428712812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308820329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BBY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809418831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.316761015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769151723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BIO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651933575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883787653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190237172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"BKR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.340251527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3123780176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747687581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CARR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3440401455},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078256931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277658781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CCI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332213066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2866271741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3229180826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMI","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362799114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3238275545},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581762475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CMS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3732648624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884569495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787314715},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629549226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124792701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661256126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"COR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2394945569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884570283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.283959181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746206164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2892068383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737395943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"EBAY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585142632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879489858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2800721478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"F","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686081377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FIX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2970244024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FIX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322650573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3184157927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266939196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"FRT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2516775334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142588315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261401397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2565713298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3099407204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756821466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3162448437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2667090359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEHC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464588071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886092028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3191962805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GEV","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340842591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2850334791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799083117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811912036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206119124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3393182324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"INVH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157979116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"INVH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2655013625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"INVH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478818375},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156444636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3358312767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2382457436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"J","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.311402322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"J","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2684698922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"J","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495836912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087681778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195809953},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KEYS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383833382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898365681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158386647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"KR","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300945041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133239526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3214829745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MKTX","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2653582816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754216468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2621958009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"MNST","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471567586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3211218203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409745746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NOC","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2467350257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2879112034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824304998},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116899412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3305274149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"NWS","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2455292789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886969496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2807711047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PCG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2670088383},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3039104617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861246855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PFE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785534428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049059817},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738820654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PKG","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553397204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102072316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682666308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"PLD","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.357203894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"Q","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839927425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"Q","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3247993579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"Q","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3435469227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167373453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331726912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ROL","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359887482},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059410767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2806765233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"RVTY","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690896376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2973697939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119952051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"SHW","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2986495499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2880756139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761518717},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"STE","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2601954269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3070428419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2731706087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TGT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562940513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818185098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761080411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TKO","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3395299509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3062776434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TMO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2729466993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2916906346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736218749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"TT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250559907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098740539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"UPS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277902689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2778872166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338299912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"WMT","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579676358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873442077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848424771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"yfinance","id":"ZBH","horizon":90.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690929241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"067d6bc7368cb2bd9fe467fc454195ec3fd4be9f02bed5ad8add9831958e7b3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665196823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"067d6bc7368cb2bd9fe467fc454195ec3fd4be9f02bed5ad8add9831958e7b3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518420973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489511833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"15a15edfe63373c78f96f021d69a22d0cc78ad843b86bf7435063c45805c1ac7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489263084},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1784da1104ec84d78b7f5a3c7d96663dfb9314efd03c0e4f309bbd0a82627584","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993641274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1784da1104ec84d78b7f5a3c7d96663dfb9314efd03c0e4f309bbd0a82627584","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964673228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663668704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659742469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070463859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"1b89485888b4ccaf75f0d9bbb699035705875a20289f045617fd5f94e058e281","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747882222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"258df82bd2c2f5df173d04e4611b32e241085fbf17f8fc7e9d8ac63cb136a928","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504501849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"258df82bd2c2f5df173d04e4611b32e241085fbf17f8fc7e9d8ac63cb136a928","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511542298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645163134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"291ffb284a54ae015ded44e3721c9a02a3cc401c44adb359bc158cb30b37883a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488981079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2a2be14f826701770214c8187c279ca151a81d2aabf965b940a1b1f6abdb7816","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854630363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2a2be14f826701770214c8187c279ca151a81d2aabf965b940a1b1f6abdb7816","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0867985801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.183257986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"2d174ea076671029f5f979a23e79ea4dfa45348b432508da0815b05578e94f19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1744630724},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659845588},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"30dc7f0ade4b5d06b9f52cbe7158916bd31e79df9ecaff12a6c550b76cf315b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661074334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"38c40d8efc89323b215a80082c57c7c5a0c36970f4d13e86e220d93131e2d2e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049095168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"38c40d8efc89323b215a80082c57c7c5a0c36970f4d13e86e220d93131e2d2e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491305423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509380374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"3fc41392cc7af95f3974c74323958db08c9756f63f159770ff0fae2ad3867a2d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509861006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"416217168e26a566103147484dc779d9c9b11710d1cb2a7a44fdfd3f9cd77a00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891920736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"416217168e26a566103147484dc779d9c9b11710d1cb2a7a44fdfd3f9cd77a00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057154911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095735047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"473739fe22871b88fcfc8d996aaa9c53dcbb02c087206692e7ef1355d0f6718f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489357371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2256556232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"524d8228bdba3a16a5591f5de0373847d1186c0b789e078d87d8364434dc7e99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2210050734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526671257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052317986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0866121275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"5cf6bb8a0c7ef53f1e36107ad116cbf905b4cc315afdaaccd70bb36986a6c454","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898131813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6281aeb88beb15d8d948de823cd27f027438ad2cdf3e201c66d5538d255d109b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2409024566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6281aeb88beb15d8d948de823cd27f027438ad2cdf3e201c66d5538d255d109b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.226271309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0814717665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"6ae5f6f9b6cbcd807fe5c6d7e35aa1c25cf0bda40ff43f8667c4bc7b1f605585","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510548495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"743a1e6ab44f20fe5ccfb2b517fa6030e4342c4aead6b2b8c9fcea4b7fbcfdec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050253898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"743a1e6ab44f20fe5ccfb2b517fa6030e4342c4aead6b2b8c9fcea4b7fbcfdec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430980359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"75f25111fc03218ff78c2dd0a34e5c9005892a4f9fdcc61defbcf7b518acc72b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068102928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"75f25111fc03218ff78c2dd0a34e5c9005892a4f9fdcc61defbcf7b518acc72b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0682569907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162109843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"76b5a922d6379f14838bbb051a7f3c70001b3661b6af959d4db6749a946e3efb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960034144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"7740084dce9fcf0a52fcaf648518e1071fe646705e2ee0c325437f829e032339","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801888331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"7740084dce9fcf0a52fcaf648518e1071fe646705e2ee0c325437f829e032339","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646957504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8464de7daca44ee3fa040f57cc25c3a797d4a2706664d3bba47d37dab3e71f68","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502405393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8464de7daca44ee3fa040f57cc25c3a797d4a2706664d3bba47d37dab3e71f68","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502217896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"84c73bbd34df256d08bf604148024579180e9c0a93f261e92f7b1643fb5dfb19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713155442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"84c73bbd34df256d08bf604148024579180e9c0a93f261e92f7b1643fb5dfb19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571859734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839254479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8874a023aa61d69330babc004208ae1977c6cb54c4bebb2c92e09017b4a0e53c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551947782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8c1f2aa24cb0dbd017b9fe81a70b88b1eca7ed5a21f737fda85cab7b887ed118","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497471062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"8c1f2aa24cb0dbd017b9fe81a70b88b1eca7ed5a21f737fda85cab7b887ed118","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496035459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661004959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"9e344c349f723a4af7261b56c0c9ed253c106fa0956f2c5d3703ee5e5d6a4da8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511790991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050599632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a36c4727f9d334924e44a4111eabd2dc2f390fccdf5a72f0242b2e2889a2bcc2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522814143},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6572885708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"a443fb4ea2879aea67ce7de62be2127f7863db520ffe40b4bdb941e6d46a96e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135116166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035850812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ae29e65838ae79b6b8d371516d778ddfa3b553824ea5a6a58ab17c82f33daed4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1574714342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b6b94782abcfab02fe0a702c1c6c49bd0159082a2146365e799c3e392d04b7c2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662426831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b6b94782abcfab02fe0a702c1c6c49bd0159082a2146365e799c3e392d04b7c2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516835978},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b7a88ced1bd731cc171e607ec34b7535fb839173a03d3c50baa9a138561b0720","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816607035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"b7a88ced1bd731cc171e607ec34b7535fb839173a03d3c50baa9a138561b0720","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670741808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ba27c9200490504ebaae900240859026badbda014cdc594cb525be4b0b4775bf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955898074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ba27c9200490504ebaae900240859026badbda014cdc594cb525be4b0b4775bf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3012960419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bba364700698cca8b4a6a6d62b8df14c812b2d741aee1e7f09afeeafba4b7504","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810548933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bba364700698cca8b4a6a6d62b8df14c812b2d741aee1e7f09afeeafba4b7504","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518103478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4254494393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bbca237d399033e22dabcd6f2fad146631c75a743a2c2ef5eeb948a9c401a58d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3969742045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3317785212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"bf094b9e3225ea213e7ae6360fe70ee1647b75434ed0dce549a669d7f4e7f239","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3277449697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"c750f4c98136e20d958db45697a2fc6ce9425ed98f99697e809016329a651124","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711723571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"c750f4c98136e20d958db45697a2fc6ce9425ed98f99697e809016329a651124","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0729826022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067165868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"d4f699577a5fc967f0291e1a2b9efd51913104344456aeca00a35eebd433aaca","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07010011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"da0086ba156491720e5ba17caa10802ce7d804c7d41c5f190404d6a62e26adc6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519192846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"da0086ba156491720e5ba17caa10802ce7d804c7d41c5f190404d6a62e26adc6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523810334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644782672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dbc453f8703351fad4dfdc3f496f4c1dd380527f38a49c0ecfa3ad8fe0b83cac","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644750798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055807814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dd94c666b5ce990c07314ec545df22d59b849ccf8cb47d5ea16a99c5370db7e2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549628388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dfc1e42029794df20049cfc1d1e10ef06b845f8bcf2045caf71b01224ca9ffd1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505946073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"dfc1e42029794df20049cfc1d1e10ef06b845f8bcf2045caf71b01224ca9ffd1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540945977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489599177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e06472142c571193cbc6dc5d563d572b1589a4d2f020c2556e42859ab3da6c28","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490104176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678688661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"e429dc1fb30f687799c41892ca15a669110805570c9a2e1626af03b6c834142e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674081799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ebf780361b5326d8d78f5871ee66afdd5a0c7ea62e3493c60a90e861f014cde9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802452629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"ebf780361b5326d8d78f5871ee66afdd5a0c7ea62e3493c60a90e861f014cde9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839120654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f4715ef60a896e3e73dc6a93283572fb8565f29789ae9e7bfa1fb625e1663b2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3488124123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f4715ef60a896e3e73dc6a93283572fb8565f29789ae9e7bfa1fb625e1663b2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910523823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010279788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f699973d07a3cfbd2f7943ed5ea7f69c3b086c7931dc91ee541aec7281237366","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0962410387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048878366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"f6d0eaf5d6550bcecbbabc407969c7145ce75956189f05988d2e8a306b417c14","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048878446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571248979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"acled","id":"fca1a5a431e80d4fbb3fc0e789fe15adf7be100a668b8617354f40f2de6d437e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561448512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427073417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.395723593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1275703852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4154178853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189610703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4202608989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111336992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3826829461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404194833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3987166989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1200922376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855340469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167860376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331725738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126019594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4331121761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141903023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983798353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246336496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3549212713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1314723377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3652964769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307548844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3862223012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1209568221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3983506227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132132446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3845414107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1235734938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622301123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2008712475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.396896177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536410773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3561344242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262666195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990181977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113556631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240517572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475345389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3871351217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1216054791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3625493388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1321742815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3691375967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206929108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3960130262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1084700433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3754665331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111044576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3520752435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1396850167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3795973064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280106159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612146284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1476221337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3689968851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135842944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207093584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072805711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4422606762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178840422},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2557601566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350464954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045060792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932341094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4195187356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1716213956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979533412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2230506771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3777652605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1851526087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.417826974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070087991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4202213574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6037456972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033630192},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61997.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2370883432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057585297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2477959782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3707771024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2356712209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4595907369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.672077843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2234400043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510964516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2644898923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833088637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068228517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528792592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2547566862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1943180215},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085022722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872647996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28478839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953596268},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3038448438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248197863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.322804873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3493485736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2955660282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016741897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090422762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887269524},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2499289738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224248052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301669809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321544737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075615985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3278691178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048065502},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A0HYM2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3410950253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051573794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3280547458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2554478432},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335947505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2495941711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"CCLACBW027SBOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4227969185},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023128232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILBRENTEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065871039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016093723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DCOILWTICO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061390512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2931089988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.299163026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901075701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXMXUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747363388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3419442275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898591839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2961094005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DFII30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3035862544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769882509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259404807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956883925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065557599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926741182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003582614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3444482567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3645012358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937013178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.308222694},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2799698471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DJIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2614299893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515671684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"DPCREDIT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1471745754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1369711574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6431041053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF30YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2862487476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF5YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2922272249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000606379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GASDESW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3046178987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342028074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3587296238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243122576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1374449849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3261914194},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NFCILEVERAGE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757917159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2769904642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"NIKKEI225","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645677146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3087927787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2920030388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2629888065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RESPPANWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3750597233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2489096935},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3528585727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829751336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024971161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824925274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3048052365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2940184628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290078019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933846573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3001232675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2404856635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTBKCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1980967707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071443178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.278137058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2898387275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3181156007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511173392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WDTGAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949589336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285277848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WEI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156824558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2767347037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.33306281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3594783475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3772068317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2717355416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WLRRAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2790130462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3805472647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2248336598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2872749593},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"fred","id":"WRESBAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2743542306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812534546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"044affc3cf8e3c981c601f7e8fc6a1144659454792c35dede40dde1a5ab85e60","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888856838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1141979483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"14b53bc593c52fa6616a9d0b81b58de35be6d1361196c29778ba80a1b04f1f63","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137822855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688369858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085426602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051158933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"17a76738a6d44a7201b2667ab83c6dee316e1d7a763240e1f3597d687955ce6d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051164083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6866777314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5098972232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1045096412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"22bcaab07d791e348a1aa7cb7882884d09277c98ea7ec782f658e6db24d88ae6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163917963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051657644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"25ae06cda2a115dcb46cbf0fc6bbe6975bfb3212b489e26634b6087d7163f0a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105313264},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052095768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055285759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105128452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"2d86299abee372110ff3496333f3d39205aca8db8b743419bdcadd550e8059e8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051866393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051982018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"41d6868cf1e538e692adfe95e00ab012ef60858c3bb6808964a425efdf8c2474","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105288639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052483892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"451aa86022cadf5f8c08fc46fecf8c86d46b17ed4f97a03c14380c9c75837f23","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054677011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648820618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4bf1375c2c1b2ff0018f2a2c8d361bde5be87f9b21db6f35dc7fb38d755cf9f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529330944},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050905946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"4f174f02cc1dc51a814862c775553c464dc71518ef09d1f97731cd70b2e8444f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051282889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311080828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1452912379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1054153262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"55c2216ba2f2608f6836da87412e72bcc1a20cb8fe88489f6dd706f6b78cb434","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060168871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052600141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"56e1c59eae8bd7a9eef15c80d31e198c0133ee52ba48ad1a800ac4768abf46cc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053247796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051174083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5882ac81e7ec14b2d8b3da350027e1e7fee5373489361cc744e6d8f4e3a1f372","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051803012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6254231018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4773474095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981404085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"61b318b9bdb76e9542d1f2aa781cc2769131805d843d72806e7b338097f56d5a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076243202},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913531018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1190321345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051221426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"64a2f13b54dc91d5869907852cd6792941a530300de5c0ca9de055879af31502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053100321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051036402},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"6e904795f6684d5595e6fb64257c2ac44a4a2c3e786131c4147454d369c45bfb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051805168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861628343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7a86e59923d2878ed9a4b845ca72820de05cf8800f14ac6688c48ae342bdd1b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023049886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050987183},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"7b7a730c70c28c718432769ece59b4227d805ae20a4e4ee71ec62c8ef3915ead","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051552044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051286395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052166392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050786559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051180795},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1074465707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8cdd7e6836d4ad5c7964232f54746ec002813b42220648e34541e1757fd1d2be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214777824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089971289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113809349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050910308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"917240d03f7e16595c3decf76c8e905081ffcc59d16c50f0128332abd87516ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051287651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051049208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"91e191b62004ae99aeefa0037c2e5412ac308a9ef2aaa6f6bb7e6b4095567f5e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051429676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050845371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"99751ecb48146412bfdfa4a11e46fd6626b35271085faff29b87295d5cff9e5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050848052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898659311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a3de2e17c5017add302c14a85f3ca286486e11a0cc02d291e7e0c7200b25e643","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967481623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050735353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050762253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050972052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051742281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1438340339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ab5c58a4f7851613998a972c236017f60c6f9cd402b83743cac441683c363680","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498165176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050878433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050933433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857341299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1137403035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006025665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2890773252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7490823204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce43fbbc6a80c2fa7b134080496856a3c4a7dc36b6c9da296af575223d5ab65b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.637438875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855904428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"cf91185d7ed1d797383671d02b9c6a4bf3b0de9ca0e33a660be015d0d9e411e9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924801115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7812289623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d2daa62a41e7a5eaf55204881cd8e187dd02762971677ed9b012c6a3c441ed11","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6729699068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238355885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279652647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050859546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e2ebe8c99e10583715b46ee35c93275a9a6b5721f812e6ce07f996daa8159732","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051065796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309709046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e4c3fda35e4b253c934eebdf98862c588007d197588a7b279c6b3ef3ba85a7ee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1868842816},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009278384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104215625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051358901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"eb4d01e0fd670e44d248625ba3b147e687537912e193de4455f1fd78607cf63d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052515166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1050973908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2edd6958c8fa5ed1c897a3a09be7eafda909d907b898f44c8f459f2a5a5264b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051855781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7252420386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"f73ed34ca12a3e74504043f868ef2cfa4a585fe0b5ae28354b1e20ab9f7bde91","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5653652245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105090984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1051369207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990465936},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1365027414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183324111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AJG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656991131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968901419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3075489659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858447058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2758456809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802455233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AMZN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3309974044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085169225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AON","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3200832873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117387938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774322512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3165143224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AVY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3324778614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3183535538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"AZO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3422648278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3003818671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BAX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2877941392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286063059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3292762399},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157712401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"BX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746215333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3136883342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CBRE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746043975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3096273166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3187371515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3082642813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"COP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222626761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3093357479},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CPT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829935908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913684172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2843060466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2851667559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744215907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3089740087},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CSGP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244952716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143570266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"CVX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3289889876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3140326465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2724112351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3166868405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3241367472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935279385},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"DXCM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3179486622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177173047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EOG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315490673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138223685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ERIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3282577199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3115560912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"EXE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3193886252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"FCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869599832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"FCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882776166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809362918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661887865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873265468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"GS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2794547695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306177698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3167570022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915646076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"IRM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2780465534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161949407},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ISRG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.329307667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3092277515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"JNJ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809738812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294552806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KKR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.313195328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139605761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218237106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2824441304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"META","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3297368844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2911853127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"MMM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2727868802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104296924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"NSC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188761649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"PLTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902975378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"PLTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3164262999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2901202016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2764610851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28755459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768085235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3129487641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"SBAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3310403956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066919699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127309159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734605169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TDG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2591891233},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TMUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3202496454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"TMUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3369189535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942116507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"UAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897125044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2902519459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WDAY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260644179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3152946069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2632575344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3169178272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"XYL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2712457754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3139790279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"yfinance","id":"ZTS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3346542674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509074197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"083f66e07d74d628962b76e05defc427f50cc21ade66a6b775ea6af83ca833b8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525519894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"0e89575effe8d6d43b327f12a813a65eeb81e8b76f994acbc24c7fba6b9a3c00","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3551954973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"0e89575effe8d6d43b327f12a813a65eeb81e8b76f994acbc24c7fba6b9a3c00","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3653354203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627118434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1013da778a92179ddad45b200e35715489ef1b9e233fb9238850d3e155330972","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630079767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479896085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1046cad489447b1c0dd4fb695cddf48bd3d7e6a66f15b0a2f81080b4398ca387","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048064832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"11ad14d93a81c40efaa69cbe5a3ec92664440c9ef22e569e648f196572070441","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498268162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"11ad14d93a81c40efaa69cbe5a3ec92664440c9ef22e569e648f196572070441","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506535877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626392752},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"123bdd8a9e5f84206cb36447b6dc44a964e248de37c6ac5dabc3128a2a3f0f46","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486506064},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628554956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1afdd177add6bb79d09d8130a0da66f6155ac6b798ce06fa195f0c3dfbf64337","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063583879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1c748737d78d6d23be65a2d12dcb8b0b118e0087c3a10200a124680b705a9142","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137432776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1c748737d78d6d23be65a2d12dcb8b0b118e0087c3a10200a124680b705a9142","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1399683678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806529155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"1fd41b58c5c86d8a595e3eb462137f143bc01a1e718e705ef11d8e189fb2e745","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081911017},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049449333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"213e07e438e3379a7cf8222200179bed623f5dfc2873820a657355c637aea661","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500175926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625917198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"292174b033d8325538df2173525a964c10f0498c16f56fdd0cfbffc43d424e73","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622963332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632990474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"2f109c1b141224bb77aa48fe005a7ce9d7aca2934baf9e82121c8537ed7ba157","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636118239},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"2fa493be13df180c8da53aec4396eaa9656d4f4352953fbc603deafddc097332","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775254948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"2fa493be13df180c8da53aec4396eaa9656d4f4352953fbc603deafddc097332","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832116738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"3dd998571d335c33a5bb521a7dae3e1d3f01037f41c9d598843c362f501b3d94","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0757671748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"3dd998571d335c33a5bb521a7dae3e1d3f01037f41c9d598843c362f501b3d94","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480996635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"42a5912387d9e2e8d2307514ff8c973f2cc1407a55b4b312cfb5d8c216e8bc02","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503533839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"42a5912387d9e2e8d2307514ff8c973f2cc1407a55b4b312cfb5d8c216e8bc02","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505759155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"474525884a76c0b89ce5168243a699cbbe16e1bc5334fa9ab17eabac12fe4aaa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3348015411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"474525884a76c0b89ce5168243a699cbbe16e1bc5334fa9ab17eabac12fe4aaa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340419357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"4c36cf9a4627f185fa557be3e9add98be4623a71cc628e8820c287d978a4fd05","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700953845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"4c36cf9a4627f185fa557be3e9add98be4623a71cc628e8820c287d978a4fd05","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718018716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"52541d1ba5875354b248fc7a9558cf183aba5727f9339292168fecb7b1a0186f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7637522775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"52541d1ba5875354b248fc7a9558cf183aba5727f9339292168fecb7b1a0186f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226902567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488950461},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"5965b7f8bce2c98d94c4a89e5a2532c705b8249d861d9943321606ac1896adbc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494564324},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"59978cdd149177a7a3c0335c78677f098d78cdd59073ac1bbbd2062bfb271b5b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635031013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"59978cdd149177a7a3c0335c78677f098d78cdd59073ac1bbbd2062bfb271b5b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644054833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063528379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"59fa135737750b8dd3be792b42d9890b340e83caf37d9e783863a6fcdab164c5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493844885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0972390673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"616432adb62d57d9bd7e8f8844695f7671554d5d80e2ce2b8b689e2673eceee1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966335719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"63a19e0abd09392e5ad5bcd03136a7b944494599b9c50bcd27970f31f3660eae","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812747441},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"63a19e0abd09392e5ad5bcd03136a7b944494599b9c50bcd27970f31f3660eae","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.081567353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"70381ea1ad3863e23311aa1808c22fa322a50fb10621d922ac5d4ef64c4a8119","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3340854909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"70381ea1ad3863e23311aa1808c22fa322a50fb10621d922ac5d4ef64c4a8119","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3045279376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"792b278efb2c2b5537d2442d0392b4dcb08998f45a02fba68735fb4cd336839a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501267856},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"792b278efb2c2b5537d2442d0392b4dcb08998f45a02fba68735fb4cd336839a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511865526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"7e3c4c3b35e465c42a057b107c83667e30c3031690a3b4bf122c7173902472f0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3338559371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"7e3c4c3b35e465c42a057b107c83667e30c3031690a3b4bf122c7173902472f0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761139312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"7f4119e23dd3373cb77b4355f5b5d16668ce55e2cca486f44b03f0a3ab88a18b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3808705423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"7f4119e23dd3373cb77b4355f5b5d16668ce55e2cca486f44b03f0a3ab88a18b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2464585075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504714869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"84560290f0fdd0e711e926a753f1afc7e2f130115d683bccf996c12bd11ddfc4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514048737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629547726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"855f638a75fadc667d8b259c646ba42dd7dab74c564d1052ab1788115be5838d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488613814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485783813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8660d6f039f015d02f3439589353c07b9e42746485e42acb5c7f0e3839a0a60f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483813828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8723214926411e611e5ad08e80a71a7d0afb62ec0af4ec8905cb5eeae89653be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2527071645},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8723214926411e611e5ad08e80a71a7d0afb62ec0af4ec8905cb5eeae89653be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2627271439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"87f4c19a45d7e05234a0b6943c94c9893a2e6c8259b16d4e381ed5f7067c2cdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480841083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"87f4c19a45d7e05234a0b6943c94c9893a2e6c8259b16d4e381ed5f7067c2cdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048110497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3054789859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8a291ad29e8f622e44b8536559968f50ddee3ffd971c67878b3867b88b2e2ff0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3124853772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8f1a35e9ded8c47a42e326c57382e793332a2fd92a61caaa98b179ebfc6a4e31","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630741606},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"8f1a35e9ded8c47a42e326c57382e793332a2fd92a61caaa98b179ebfc6a4e31","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496664424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3662850048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"93ae965d27aebfdcc59bb8410a814c6c6d94839008031ea6c7afafca4d9309b3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270142846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"98ed712d949684f530e006cc38ebb6704d66b025c35c39f179d2073232f8d738","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572299818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"98ed712d949684f530e006cc38ebb6704d66b025c35c39f179d2073232f8d738","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325674469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"a1a0ab31b111e00d0e9ac7e4bddda8c6e7e0a5ae3caf697f2ab4431050c54219","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2218365656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"a1a0ab31b111e00d0e9ac7e4bddda8c6e7e0a5ae3caf697f2ab4431050c54219","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2253698721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"a2a3a6ad9bd798bbbb8563617fe60c3b537a440995f3a7a1e1e19be614c49ddc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063144889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"a2a3a6ad9bd798bbbb8563617fe60c3b537a440995f3a7a1e1e19be614c49ddc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634452573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"b00db06004aa0ce9b2f6e0aead234dd8b25d2f84b02e6c5ddb579d1d583301fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630105494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"b00db06004aa0ce9b2f6e0aead234dd8b25d2f84b02e6c5ddb579d1d583301fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637621548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"b4f1f247f2a713a9777a8be17d51892a591b49144bdaac476ec55f804316ec62","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529334176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"b4f1f247f2a713a9777a8be17d51892a591b49144bdaac476ec55f804316ec62","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544894369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"b7e31c799a10a678ac14111c55942f36c8b8814e7bdba5d6bf83c6f179e32d38","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487634376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"b7e31c799a10a678ac14111c55942f36c8b8814e7bdba5d6bf83c6f179e32d38","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486825055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"ca7c93a7c78866191bd3c170b218150eb59723228a388a057406ca3df066e690","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232154068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"ca7c93a7c78866191bd3c170b218150eb59723228a388a057406ca3df066e690","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080330221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285111579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"d01347d0d06143bfd314b1c0f3f5c416d9e815d5c9a1ccec34189131316c048c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754420968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"d154918a7259ca72af20a709a8e4f8bd706b88e166b718a27a8efc7ef0c6a01a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1194589232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"d154918a7259ca72af20a709a8e4f8bd706b88e166b718a27a8efc7ef0c6a01a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175607154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"e06e6e18d2c1453d32c05dfabd5772d1f53382a46a0d3d92a3bc9890af158086","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481176636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"e06e6e18d2c1453d32c05dfabd5772d1f53382a46a0d3d92a3bc9890af158086","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482240784},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490422133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"eae0bc4de7369ea4d3f8b87eb29c6c67ee79ceb05a4fd07d0a50f7053918dedb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489257475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"f0d7d6c3be982271654c2028b2071c99f680bddd29ac56736eb58c53d8de89ec","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489369902},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"f0d7d6c3be982271654c2028b2071c99f680bddd29ac56736eb58c53d8de89ec","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488318843},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"f7e2dc67a7be54206f181674f8050b5438c5a9417d0e7532dfd9f5423b0ef00d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3143523075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"f7e2dc67a7be54206f181674f8050b5438c5a9417d0e7532dfd9f5423b0ef00d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3275941513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"f95f46bc59dcb6449ddcac11058f1d5cf82661b9bb08c9ff92584d8629c6e294","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8712705227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"f95f46bc59dcb6449ddcac11058f1d5cf82661b9bb08c9ff92584d8629c6e294","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.843773176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"fb6f4a8b9a9140f19d06ac154b0222c7f1c59240c1b83f301f23b5b81dca7bc5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4856051787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"acled","id":"fb6f4a8b9a9140f19d06ac154b0222c7f1c59240c1b83f301f23b5b81dca7bc5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4912218027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1795600176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2648060742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117840335},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2237351615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3511564169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640237452},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3773192704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726130732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301540127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052853024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894635945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07117.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.187490993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057845392},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2208629618},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600293311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.168974467},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847846987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780799534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2503965289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1855632299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2549677491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1866854436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3331558924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550515911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267732687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193129736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762847632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802466036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876180105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1912076315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2245073786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1784355063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782666045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068297351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848235872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19579093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3189344393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2399850389},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837009987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1505468291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.253329382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1738633188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2688903749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1725411066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833013766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2071686214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295795623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430968857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2308739969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1462135287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2490738587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07577.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1490912846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355739612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379858134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315295475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1582078821},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612126554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535745839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2741570016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1873354387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2550238135},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841021299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3903172306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.167124481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2408405879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1428857762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2062241841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.115374874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2938512965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2642181882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4286169397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61976.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1851798995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683785337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2042908655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3602602848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208614596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2809324692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117960408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157415379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3815506316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1764336326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701270597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4700324911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3411319223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2359103613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3390898418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4521999633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094463217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281602153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958302969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"AAA10Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293936912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.306376058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640589885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979024546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2692973221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3073448396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2639344538},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015089924},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288869257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2849537779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A3CAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134276004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2423152487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLCC0A0CMTRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2131440609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2967391883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMCBPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737449099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923107382},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745331323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3138608878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3438901051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3056603442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYCEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844994803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.293500522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHE00EHYIEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010036895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.243166019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2123306463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801242242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2636431897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2875731366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"CCSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3259950428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867418257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DAAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209894217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2939618094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134411197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3025906985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXKOUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3016695778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2957787883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3120340347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.295806999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2912816573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942504057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DFII10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.300774591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2942641824},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3325824797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841141676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS20","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3177804567},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831491236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS3","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826970145},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736579975},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"DGS30","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3374744361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1203193754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7332966971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935243634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"IC4WSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3514581505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2963178434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319453536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1359358955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"IORB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1335792154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2074615131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"IUDSOIA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986747805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069055581},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"MORTGAGE30US","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924425571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3102874575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826510435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5096048428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956384495},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"NFCIRISK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3347322275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853515172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIJUMBO30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865815921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2722402595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"OVXCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2514963273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"REAINTRATREARAT1YE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3515515873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.520574695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"RESPPLLOPNWW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4689835523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886875207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"RRPONTTLD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2994863972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"SNDR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179521707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2585291564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"SOFR180DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263479097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3158229737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"T10Y3M","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3306382191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.289933105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3134632262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2895006262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"T5YIFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006120247},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.345250689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WGS1YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3426305051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3599225651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3593310106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2802783971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WLODLL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2867310827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2538261263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266010778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4444254404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"fred","id":"WSHOSHO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4421236053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980531167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"0b350413b1a75fde7eb68df4eabcc4b213decb78c68b7116d9a0abe5a0a56f27","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982881149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881919693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"127f33fb2530ea03d3af0420afc5e0f283b23503e3dc7ff0ccd8e84dfd241f49","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013083142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979656179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"1d9b2c247a0f16b0531b5fc49bfed62658a4e7c10dc8bd6fee98fb5ff57cf8c0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098010397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815031312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"25e629b0a54ee795ccbb7c44968f319952cae286525fa43501a290151a3f1d6c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954153034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979033195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"2828a545f898c8f13f5c613c6f6cd01e6f4bbbc96e285969f39f2b926eaf90d7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979371242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979988954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"289ddcc2051a5fd3581e8b5fc22a1b1d0a2f001b928b26a9d0ea271dbe3914df","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980883964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523644853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"29c188aea14fb8a9bc4846f9a8f28fc46dd6010917d4a34aed7dd6e1baba8fdf","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523984962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980379501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"3a13f78a8056f9265ee36506b60902a1c8664d0ac23b68d190bdd1e29101a035","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983611699},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979308965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"400645f89b7f8e0ea2c080c5b3dfa0e304b97fe03c04ce97ec60e1e9903281d6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980310641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523585987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"43e0c7911f8e4b5b28d526e98adcb42489e2095bd6f5294c57292660c3e84fb9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524199494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107259123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"51e319ff3614eb258031bc209592fa36df164e35f100e2415575dda647fc9617","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5603089491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979213566},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"578b6f4c4242c577108c48e77da044b1675916d03d231aebb5bc2cb9b8f4cdfa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979593168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0977018808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5d675aaaef89c7e9b340de20f164638503d97a39dcac53d5db6762f613f2c591","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500468329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135541372},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.190198283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1432928575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6227c48a37c20188a81f2c1b25fd1a991467c7871710adaa58466c0bd780a742","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5767602592},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979007867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979446442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979643396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b1c68a507fa625722143674cac09c96d837fd8efb49e20bb9a3d5ee14d1cc99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980703943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980451217},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6cf34d59dc1e52734175e6c258b6746f2033ded0a271142a5545a00562ee2fef","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981177828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060320005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"6ddf6aade8e3c1be768d76de6adc1152f00cf9db1f99dae035fe43743a92dcdd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090082557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889987965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"76eefc47356f6f8254bbc134dc46e8127fca413bb79a551af09a829cfb2603b0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958510778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855644893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"793b2cd84b35aaf26c07464c21690ad171f2168f639513b9883d63234e515e03","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957583563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981279633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"84259aa600eedf03ebae06b31605446da5b6703bb652cd445984ac05effec11a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0984676691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1174638026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1310580883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979550207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8479becc589b4ebdee63d615cf02da764ddabaef498f07dca6c62faf2c51d4fa","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980148114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979368398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"866850774b503973bd23c08c1fd62ccd144a4916516975d9ef2108b09f301da0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980152281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291410265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8858797caf705a63035ce385c7e41cb40f87b610063d4b00877e2dcf2beed9d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1677791859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602754035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"8f2ea4ca0e1613f5ed5071b15f8c6eb0e365f00e19ec57a6311aa23ff655e644","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672182397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1049083979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147776563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979051745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"9b23662b0dcbb885aa00dfa3ee17560462db1c6fe0c6c750ba5cdaf5c6f3a33a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979323965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1062557154},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"a0601f09d73e005eb0e78fabad1f250b9fd228c10c848fb756bb0197025986ab","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309186536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979326181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980208536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979256182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"ad6d62b2f887e0b7905ab1db114ab6273e1cb2e2938434503034fbe5f20d7b4e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980257858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978993178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"adf5c1e65d1b1b0e53916adf2ed2b538cfe14b2e16da0991e2932b4e51dd7911","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979344326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523542338},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b06b3e4e83fe2f7412cae94efce5f55ee864b57d15e6f693b8c4514c73742a10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523717331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523598859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b4bd48aff8c75b95155fb345df00b665241b1547efb1fe49626e981ba48fecda","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524056695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1662805436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b7cb5b21a17ddf6ef798011d1496bb1441ccbe7bfde036c17f0b71010b1b971a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1525037037},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978976345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"b81664fe56316ef66ac51d058aabe540336665cafb8e75bef86c1a96db5ec1b1","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979148444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1348136708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1367191564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0888408292},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6570700938},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474301861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"c37effa43385e2f5a9a91bc99a278ac376fb8f10f1e11ea39fb621bfbf6e2c2f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6352121098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747710157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"d61d058797047fb9793684b123dcf88a66f843695d9e65e9bc6df0f49ec9d936","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779043252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126749501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"dadd517a58009c84362694393623ebcca9e7339eab40e7fc61947c22d9cd4e3d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1229717052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032707993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136262762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470283608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f2cfd4cd4dd2dcf1a05ea950e3ae4b2ed9146c64b51dc5c56315875cc43e0e0e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1421588751},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1766855195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"f6a47cd336b6ea14b142b18f6b8e0880362d28b6e3fc3fdb35ea95eebe07b94d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2254907045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1654967156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"fa4d2a497c94285f4ec72ff280426a2a86bc41776a0e62658dd1bc72eaeb192a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219407314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979368398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"fcd4c9217f96859652fff6e6d4ebb518a52bbd2e7a696f6fd31b9422a493b4ff","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979883533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523653742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524272115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883109573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ACGL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268545972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114887706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ADSK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315792886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839817828},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"AEP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705495425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2941478434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ALB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3097128115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935096101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"AMCR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2762465754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"APD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3074127892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"APD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27887766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836442887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"AXP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2700223877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2842521999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"BAC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2686673711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CASY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874293082},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CASY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2718506022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826092262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3296362468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2924024911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"COF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2836610326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950185163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CPB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841145969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826746362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"CSX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2650590596},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DRI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2854333378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"DRI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2733139447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874832366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ECL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2732559078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2876775949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"EG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752433749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047203696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ES","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2821258575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103453063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ETN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267282532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2987148714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"FSLR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109615773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3436396342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HAL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2935870737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HOOD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894510595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"HOOD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789488688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3116980526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3272057521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2887230695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"IVZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831311575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2933599501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KIM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833662157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2958012187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"KO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2757871497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078081771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LDOS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3210344321},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3085292203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199198104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2874288166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798974238},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833417152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"LIN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2625795092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3188416663},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603479896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2858390977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2716444058},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2805533833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2770252076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NVDA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268144815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"NVDA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3486365275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845381551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"ODFL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250265677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787057702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"PANW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631937509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286795612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745869341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107951043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"PTC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3226533271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873413819},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725140248},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061221197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"REGN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282210174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833388617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2738538687},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3104474619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"RSG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744301258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3170868963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"SPGI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2643410622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077363328},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TEL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3248057766},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294227955},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TPR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896828886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3103356781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"TTD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300209796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832499231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"UNH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725475032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2856577121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2711337591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921197852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"VRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2756779079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894126626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WAB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3121049447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3119972569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"yfinance","id":"WM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27093509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"049da0154348459a2f1ab13b2d5b1414e6340d76e659746ac81e286934375e6b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2690179295},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"049da0154348459a2f1ab13b2d5b1414e6340d76e659746ac81e286934375e6b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3416336558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"094701a9b39945fec8eeafa7d5d425274862ef0862b681f78cf8cad9e43efb75","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082966438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"094701a9b39945fec8eeafa7d5d425274862ef0862b681f78cf8cad9e43efb75","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.105229556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"0f512f8bddc1441c7d9d6bd85643a4916c90455ee2ff188b006d506a1008ce37","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648367578},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"0f512f8bddc1441c7d9d6bd85643a4916c90455ee2ff188b006d506a1008ce37","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05299257},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481036076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"13d316bde5b42878373d60756d8b44aea44719b36d5140fd01dc4a39e4dc669a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482094418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3747229046},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"181e33842a92a3925dcd3f8bb70011f87f6c168e6f997a63fd08bf499a1f738e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3916894424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"18e2d5dbd23eb77a469c760b741da1dcc88c0623e9f9585b8b72c4c86e643ea5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1624967203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"18e2d5dbd23eb77a469c760b741da1dcc88c0623e9f9585b8b72c4c86e643ea5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479297754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"1b647e7743f2cfbecf3a2af89c09bdbf33773d9daad4ad4a7155e97ec2d3494e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2951281757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"1b647e7743f2cfbecf3a2af89c09bdbf33773d9daad4ad4a7155e97ec2d3494e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471611139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065149316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2b6dfa51c453c3f82d6740304ba6d6c8e967b40107f35257522b245e20bdf6e5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649997921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2bfeff6f67764685a7ceab9ab3e21605bbe1836d93e5998bdff99b7fadb0d6b5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262679311},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2bfeff6f67764685a7ceab9ab3e21605bbe1836d93e5998bdff99b7fadb0d6b5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3487766572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2d189d770e9e50c5fe5f1a095fbdb942437786a9d335691600a7b1a1391d34ad","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0891989061},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2d189d770e9e50c5fe5f1a095fbdb942437786a9d335691600a7b1a1391d34ad","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.091788442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2ea3f21419100151a02d754b0a4e9e696d8562ebdcc803666bd675afb3d402dd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490607665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"2ea3f21419100151a02d754b0a4e9e696d8562ebdcc803666bd675afb3d402dd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492206542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"35e34fb873972950f32ed0b4d2b938fffedc8f569f5a701d666a85d502468925","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488209401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"35e34fb873972950f32ed0b4d2b938fffedc8f569f5a701d666a85d502468925","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493608714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"3dc35398597ae02368225b471c5adeb1a83c5002a721acdaad7a87000864ea0d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052086688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"3dc35398597ae02368225b471c5adeb1a83c5002a721acdaad7a87000864ea0d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533170119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"40fd8ff546993d3ee6c3832ad0b976b45f4fe878d4c9ce93840602fde0518802","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051504639},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"40fd8ff546993d3ee6c3832ad0b976b45f4fe878d4c9ce93840602fde0518802","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509532721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"42a39c283628b86d78a795fb7fe35cddaf6905b10ac2c49c715ede0585068862","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461768623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"42a39c283628b86d78a795fb7fe35cddaf6905b10ac2c49c715ede0585068862","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378164814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630143294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"443a7b85b1256b7ede89fe5ee9857f4cb8222aa705bfe80af68484309a3f7502","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500381835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558003825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"458f65f2a56cbb1afbe5bfc238af62b42cc9c2e423f5d1bfeb34792f7fc5a601","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0563698782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"49c0c513d28b18688a81ae6a42db73542ff829cdf3b4ace73acc4e67f67af345","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512537498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"49c0c513d28b18688a81ae6a42db73542ff829cdf3b4ace73acc4e67f67af345","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526989055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"4a587da9c9a17175bbbaa3ca3ea4bc990fe46dc8c0f3574459fde19cada495f6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479931085},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"4a587da9c9a17175bbbaa3ca3ea4bc990fe46dc8c0f3574459fde19cada495f6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480223438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5a424950e682b56dea8bce620c6eda4086c285980f7e0e4711e1658454b428a5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662538604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5a424950e682b56dea8bce620c6eda4086c285980f7e0e4711e1658454b428a5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688879848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050954641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5a5dd6f530b482865f37a6aaf52048dd38c69a777464ca020f6a8fd1d0c35a25","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052297853},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631267713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5c78934d8767272a2a6576a8cce3d7860ef120ef34db3bb5f7af189bce405315","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494812433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5c8bcd1ab0d8fba29a2ef053a10bafafc4ca2c2f2a0d7523cfb60431d8fd8f7d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618821697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"5c8bcd1ab0d8fba29a2ef053a10bafafc4ca2c2f2a0d7523cfb60431d8fd8f7d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619363493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"6e64d02e109f653570c5dfabe4d6e8b5ba14bee612453834f5f630d98b5de8e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019025319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"6e64d02e109f653570c5dfabe4d6e8b5ba14bee612453834f5f630d98b5de8e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7508867147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"702c8ebee8a18268fac6c0c2026ec319f9fafb47c7a0c2235aad863791a4db99","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791864266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"702c8ebee8a18268fac6c0c2026ec319f9fafb47c7a0c2235aad863791a4db99","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815060757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2663382276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"760ecad6cb71b7fc8741bd024f6bc478def8dc2c099401f2ef24acf2cc80a183","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2608282695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621101124},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"83df1cdcf4de44a5db87a93f685229ca6a0aa0d5432db04ec977900ea7d0ff79","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621892801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"87bd13e9d6daacbd97045ab542e5439d7389d2cc1108cba0cb78acb9ef095814","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634646016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"87bd13e9d6daacbd97045ab542e5439d7389d2cc1108cba0cb78acb9ef095814","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646118707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2102149877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"8a25a2cb44d0e40e39c32a0b1358e9e9b81dbd8e28297a5ed67c1789d5f75867","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2028036551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639215564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"932ca6c16ead137f4a1c5b0518e8cb6de2389d12b776ea06feaf49d35a8716e6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515628169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006956889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"9f49f8f716d03bb62b6cb6b68bf139d1b09da6887139aa97088595c7878417ea","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228913537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"a10b6b87b12bcc7b63079a0f034a3eae7d8e871950571599a202b0029bc23355","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676678274},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"a10b6b87b12bcc7b63079a0f034a3eae7d8e871950571599a202b0029bc23355","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679036701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"a5864448b4face2938832cb59a3a866a50578c37b4f6c6a85e6ec0cf0b322af2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746710731},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"a5864448b4face2938832cb59a3a866a50578c37b4f6c6a85e6ec0cf0b322af2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624323344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288306894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"a6865d299e7891a26084c8d2327334ddbcd34b8eabf9061c7d2626867948df5c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3564182101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"b427d7c03d14d3b6624b2289120b23d290641d63fcdf3641e9c510fe953c6d4d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0929659886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"b427d7c03d14d3b6624b2289120b23d290641d63fcdf3641e9c510fe953c6d4d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907148946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518866339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"b790bf6d6145da160304a3660aebacb5b64aa9d3e405b5847c7bf122b3dbd481","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531763463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"bb616050d2280377cb2150e1f85c6be6ff5f602a25cba66603428fbb57247340","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152192271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"bb616050d2280377cb2150e1f85c6be6ff5f602a25cba66603428fbb57247340","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543190968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"bba364700698cca8b4a6a6d62b8df14c812b2d741aee1e7f09afeeafba4b7504","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661004149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"bba364700698cca8b4a6a6d62b8df14c812b2d741aee1e7f09afeeafba4b7504","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685967848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492449418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"bda644d5c08dd48462c653899272adf410bba09768825581be427a1abb3e23be","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497351797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"c53f2c6e1e786db9007a43dc36572ecec02334c8484f5dd224d91472560f7367","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641083767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"c53f2c6e1e786db9007a43dc36572ecec02334c8484f5dd224d91472560f7367","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622395136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110011662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"c572935b3b46f3baeeb57a73a941872d68f8bcd9f9045a103e6ff9dfbac6ccc9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3403287213},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"c927efe0284e3d67877ea9655880645c5e1a912ce2768f819300f4f273dfba39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627427187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"c927efe0284e3d67877ea9655880645c5e1a912ce2768f819300f4f273dfba39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488655602},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"cf1359b265f22b287116f70587d3ed8e847e40d74849f2cd993468f75a2c2d74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3926758793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"cf1359b265f22b287116f70587d3ed8e847e40d74849f2cd993468f75a2c2d74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4190517346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492817093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"d39e95460bd2384aade687b3a48a43a25ebc2b40af32e909e16059ff217df3fb","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503327568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"ddf4c8ffbf4531046fe1e4d3fb5d29dd8f258b2f131207e9716353e4ad239e2b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048127607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"ddf4c8ffbf4531046fe1e4d3fb5d29dd8f258b2f131207e9716353e4ad239e2b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481951669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490730447},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"e3e725eb02935c09f998cf84d68f302915cf79fa84877535262ee3e263d9ff6f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488994349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"ea8a0014293b8f5dc84c025c80aa8616af185c3d8867ecbbd1d58fdeb20672a2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624004991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"ea8a0014293b8f5dc84c025c80aa8616af185c3d8867ecbbd1d58fdeb20672a2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492871625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673553498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"eb5315a618033ded4b60bd36f659477ec080cff43e308268d1d6fe472768ae8d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696700683},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491880572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"fd6a02c79b7a675c24e10f5af7d35640512930b6aa549dcaa9e3de73fe665f1e","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497147199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"fecc0682fe363ef72976a278ea29a396ee6c8cfadfb87175fe3ee7f080848d4c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650640894},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"acled","id":"fecc0682fe363ef72976a278ea29a396ee6c8cfadfb87175fe3ee7f080848d4c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656620849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4545767146},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.571353878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4279502781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07015.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5347812019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2383906065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07020.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.159418984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4488437915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07027.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5865409068},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.406001947},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07037.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5471349531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4280669439},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07072.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5710706734},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3481848895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07110.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5038774793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383208044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07130.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4565092301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3962205331},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07139.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5281130613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4031929387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07149.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5082975834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3863927041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07168.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5104399113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331649858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07181.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5016919962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2332186355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07190.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.497417343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3814522945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07222.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5189218095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3867872654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07240.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5166906764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3982814398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07255.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5240357339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21746783},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07280.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5374097576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2344207136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07299.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5170981587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.370887067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07335.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4920252644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3963300414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07434.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5136898607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3734932478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07460.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5121779814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2361202789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07471.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5026479029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324568644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07481.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4878497852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3676817362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07510.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4981441895},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3589666954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07535.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5040252398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672366169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07558.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4989631747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2428068507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07591.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5385471276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4056468945},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07607.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5073571326},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4120018995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07621.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5454114794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3752296358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07627.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5278251286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4095811081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07630.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.545144665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2207796291},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07650.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328525191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1990575719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07690.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262303471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2480076982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07747.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840006218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2157803806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.07761.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1302636498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227677436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61968.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286573574},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3037678878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61972.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3036190725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3066471773},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61980.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550955099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2909957626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61996.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3117622716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3671950892},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.61998.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2492478873},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010067977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.67005.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2826902701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054964119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.71805.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386635861},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3999192448},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78890.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5073432556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2435629246},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78894.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1747936343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457927678},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78897.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.412344011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2779609971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.78925.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4244362034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4105091641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81401.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997375166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3490043394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"dbnomics","id":"meteofrance_TEMPERATURE_celsius.81405.D","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27297435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2964098701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A0CMEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2914141747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.297106341},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A1CAAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071041676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021857111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744428749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808169857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC0A2CAAEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088595703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944291844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLC4A0C710YEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929846777},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3380297103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLEMHBHYCRPIOAS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147323309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.301121917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A1HYBBEY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2897673167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3000374607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLH0A3HYC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2894954342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3463171952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"BAMLHYH0A0HYM2TRIV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320759582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233733393},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"CBBTCUSD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2682908704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3083190701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DBAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829432842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2944513855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXCHUS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3059403983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2962490006},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSEU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3091339241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3064329158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DEXUSUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819964839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0889426549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954076401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861963544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DFEDTARU","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035847261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.288923541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DFII5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3110495647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2910836763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3033772305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728595791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS3MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3482832275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2830455271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3301027604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3141219679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS6MO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258765304},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2882110718},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DGS7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3157798015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259984839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DPRIME","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1271985197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2934106737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"DTWEXAFEGS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3006824209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1477945391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBDFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.146836692},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2604131896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"ECBESTRVOLWGTTRMDMNRT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4273604425},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1313795322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"EFFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1328072688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF10YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915328205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"EXPINF2YR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2829104484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742674757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"GVZCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606631478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3013107462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"ICSA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190206848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.332420636},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQ100","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3570916306},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3198300118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"NASDAQCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3409668804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"NDR12MCD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5069208845},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.290820917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"OBMMIFHA30YF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050338433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564846032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"RIFSPPFAAD90NB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270582437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862060029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"RPONTSYD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.23784027},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2045875134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2124691698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754878131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"SOFR90DAYAVG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631442434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975470036},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"T10Y2Y","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2745579434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.302425677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YFF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2921771964},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2937099667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"T10YIE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020657994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.29011757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"THREEFYTP10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308987793},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2512301161},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"TOTCI","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3978031191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065472339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"VXVCLS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.309389988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915447347},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WALCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3854232791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3749437526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WLCFLPCL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2628830149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4223809858},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WM1NS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2101167542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210910413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"fred","id":"WSHOMCB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254990911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979200632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"0117323aa66a6bfa92485b98cd86cf58ff7dca3f8e5f75ae82fd29e57f4d3d74","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980050348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1259392009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"03288caeb42fec07ed971589de97f4a580c64bc1b75a916af289fdb34a04da42","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543396078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608833946},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"15a2309ff037755f0cfaabde0da65f0a646573fb07183b089529109298a8d195","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732773933},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1035682709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"193c1a4a77b48de9298abf69f353564b06506ed55a358060ea002afe9f3662d2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636478195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979381181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"1f8f1bf444de5afdcc4e19bb6f62c56a8e8267992075876bbab5da68fd892eb0","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980317579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0895084038},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"27e948952d66a749e55f37f9cb63036955768951570c627c3f16ec378df057f9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6709650994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.111821346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"2f9337f5d2cc530629386a651bc047c7b76cb3d2fa3222a2fca72a8a7a20e7b2","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118665679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1117934575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"39d7aa6828192b95302b58e3d018da55ff26535fcef6dda5a46484622347bda6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118149575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118086794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"39e342f01235a496925d1ea1b365bf20ad46eaf58543fbb58b90661acd709a3a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980200619},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2025797679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3b03f66d22f6b63289ce178d5e07aa06e35edc1015be866baf956e7864fc4076","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2140130144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985409463},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"3cc7f7be1cc6927ebdfa620d34c53a686644033aa555eb47ca7e251c6143d678","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986074597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981313388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"526c6528b20e5f276b77169c5421bffeddf4b52da372dbbe75ec1bee9126aa19","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982227426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979479514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"571af009841487e9e0a39bcfd4821a6edf1ba0a32e5f9f22fb2cbca285b91eb8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980877297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026925167},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"5e5fae96f10319998728a48a5c42d909cef7cce4a39c194ac10e68c9a35ee023","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1647799412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995807458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"607f772fb118b26ae86cf2647783fe1e08bd926da72267110f4c5158e9e783c9","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1410109373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979129094},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"62a97de6a809b87851c284ae04792ab6ddd70518772fd3e0b1e7af339e5bcba8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979676868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.086181251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"63d85393d0ecb6f7c121039246e9ab76878565399969c1474632cb539403a9e4","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1183317076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979338398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"6b5ae258d99205be0f8e1e4396d34caa191b640b860ce569345d93f7f4634adc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979805617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836841896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"804ef781f2394ae2530ebba1e8860271a5a50b2c09add52a538780bc67384f10","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1004393363},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979478397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"82732eccc0e28610e2796f3d44bc2c080cbd67cfe7fb15681ec6e2685ed9fa45","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980263669},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782731558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"845581b74c2a3c6e656427871e89fcd0458d782248baaf1d56e13cdb0651c67a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902042318},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1499648891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"891a110ca63ac46515ff54b9a343bc8e5d74f2f674be7010a203945809dd8a55","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5744602767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716697059},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8b6c74cb5bf033e46a25b9ff3bddc361af7720dd4b3bbbd6352ec8a9c283d406","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0716209841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097959229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8bff28e35f0e33813ec5f3f2b14d37d4196d63fac21b2a7e9933707a27f671d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980766287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09791041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8c269b12b666966a05a857c28a03353e201138ff0bf33c40dbe5c2355eb2ed39","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979481608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650808671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"8d6e75ca19e4dbf74ea7f7910116ee0c192613feb78bc17e14998bbf2c06167c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719668703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979143016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"903583557dac4eed86c81cac642b20fe7f3425e9ae902f331a29ae6516172741","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979313476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925417141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9073847fed8835b0457068f50f90de690f18b44c7257d0b1fef838bfabeda796","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1547634638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.088141803},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"93ec932ea125ee5a95d35826e66738e0962b8a822028d4fba7be70305113bc9d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966875159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0795030353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"973539acd6a838fe6f407c21a333008830bbfe642b0add5d257d7bc8a008b851","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850033269},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1218308805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e49af05cd8a90f078d5efc3b90bb7d4c13bfc65d8ae2a73a0ecc5a3e86f2d7a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125341465},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864862045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"9e712ffaf3b7b079b10bfaa1e1d67f7ec51de118ee8eeaa7a10f8b0fde9b5910","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237803657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979309515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a2805fcb003dc3297ab7d0f82651c385d6471af5692612c8848e94fea5a1d312","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979813122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979004039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a8a233d491589095301fdae256d9241a3443903ffa5c677a7e33720226c23d7b","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979049345},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933755411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"a987eef385663d96115ba6c113ffb3dc7e83affdcaa8c53421220e4e9e1f95f8","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052527287},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979146883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"aaaa39a987ff6041625a0717c12963cd476cd1521fb0dadf8ad8608cb603f654","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979483369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979215782},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"abb6f71b0d60d9266abb8d350e718812b00a5a01b880238c4e4cb8760c1f0c1d","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979666451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097954563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b622a1686336779a1c33398b9760a102059ee40948b70aa5633559d1575b90fd","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980587983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946583647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"b8e27a7e7701b6421105d5b5b9d78fdee04c5639bf6b26b609afa54b447fd55a","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1436968812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945250879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"beccd776bdc07315be25d08c346969bdd986c7dae80302f14d3b1892fa674ecc","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060096674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896871569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c097d5216ff8068a20a5c9592860a003ccc06dd4eb7da842d86c3816a68c3ab6","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6708236996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640822635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"c907f6c2f20d03900179318b2eb8027873677867b8b7f9d2d5766809237502d5","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678141241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978994051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ce8c2a8c37c4d37d23fb2691310cc9335e4fde570d08fa6a19b253310c2ec7de","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979205716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155582615},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e03302c1f15124763fbe6535f046fce38d6cf3912e9b7b11889f9bcc523f597c","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304580928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759530067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"e5ef5991f0340690d21eec9e1fbc20d3b80d3d6dfba96b040c306080ae2ae990","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0812251333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0979378548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"eda8e5b43e0db651905667586e1e72a7d5679cbb5b3ef4dd6faa6444759e2dee","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0980476689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523706642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"f048e63f2f8ab26d2eaadd1c152e5563dd6693f889cc91a4de78b96b2d563a16","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523873757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09804745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"fb7ce4d6ce29dcc6e69896826b6768a10dee8d6ac7ad85f22142d4fb3a84bec7","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982366708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.152347541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"fe9051a7ff708ea4d1ad5b41ccf44718d0a1d5345993dbd4c6d07038df3fdd7f","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523722675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037916286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"wikipedia","id":"ff153a13090a11be47ca39fcf8f8e54ad7c8fae80d681d26b58cad0e02b2d9ed","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.142180226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2812370203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"A","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2657747261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2765704307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ABBV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2640049526},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3126434251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AKAM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.319115587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3052329576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AMTM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3161552197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818091901},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"AVB","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2728614915},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.285174565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BDX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2719397397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3235354855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"BLK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342431519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3127581939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CEG","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286192207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CIEN","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891055442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CIEN","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3212241242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2913832361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CRWD","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816529261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3098223634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CSCO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233758144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTRA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312202176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"CTRA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232904005},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2825794198},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"DUK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.265833066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840043153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ED","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2754972713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FCX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084135258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FCX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.31949583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2865124786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"FMC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3222225579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2845536074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GDDY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784943546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891973144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"GLW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.323752262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2926027232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HSIC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782197577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2891555168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"HSY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3203684882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151811367},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"ICE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2638526653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2899971854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"INCY","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2803132102},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2863670846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"JBHT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2734826403},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LII","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2811514677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LII","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.324131981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2969297627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"LUV","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847155337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857389656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MAA","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3262043427},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2841430262},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MDLZ","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325387791},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MRSH","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2831942668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MRSH","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710060171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3133345568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3319568018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147027411},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"MSFT","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.266149048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105728029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NKE","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.325777847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3199226727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"NTAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2645482928},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855867632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PAYX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2747954655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859866101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PHM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3208045142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2853087494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PNC","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2761821114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2819250149},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"PYPL","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2672506552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3147925879},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"QCOM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3230939675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2847521178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"RF","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2715531288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2860817208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SJM","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2752885698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2864015072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SO","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2714996554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2855544218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SWK","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2705015057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072912444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"SWKS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3090596305},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950091414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TAP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2838334442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TROW","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2832331846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"TROW","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2701546941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UNP","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2883132177},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"UNP","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2742496779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2801837481},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VRTX","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2673200986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2835771079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VTR","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2737861546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2884567913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"VTRS","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2816976158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":7.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.287854171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"yfinance","id":"WST","horizon":30.0,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2760577911},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1285","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1598292935},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1286","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603762586},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1290","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.203640345},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1342","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1520524265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1353","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176573674},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1858045588},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1364","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1332147077},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1373","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490143149},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1374","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1601889683},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4393031072},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1399","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031936705},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1902898696},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194118434},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"0750nMx1Fqq4CWdoBHdX","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1440159053},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"0m2HGw8Pd4ZTIgga0Pzv","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500089404},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"0yVJeShTMcm0FA8UrcCL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001927051},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"2ZLAoe3EAFVhcFAXXfPp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.154673485},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"3wRmZN5B5UypDistmDUA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2268214076},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"4puVWhIkvQiHnTxbH4NL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4149468949},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"5PBiCM7mofSHR55eoXkP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22417794},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"AM1axfn3jAan7o8XYSfW","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3255080143},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"AXdiGoQlSHAH9vzCVAN1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.107202654},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"HFuD5HPpd2ZR9gLk6nhj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1064384395},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3148572251},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"IUetZc700ZLVlkWh6n0D","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031966318},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"JNC9AKTKeNrRJ4QYzB9I","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210995888},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"KCFbp1TH0RYN4j5zYdmh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4175134153},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"KtGRsTouYWiDPaPhRC3o","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1754296552},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"Nc8DWWUyYm6CQp6PvOEv","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0803586474},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"PNVVTlruggno0Yw5tjVS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4379954224},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619771147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"TPkEjiNb1wVCIGFnPcDD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191816765},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"UQRBDDvSiDEEsJbevE4p","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1896740528},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"VB1RhUVlnNfhclAh4LvR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135021829},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"YleFhm7mAbAVzTW1dUmI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1572815177},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926356525},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"ex1RJ8NMa2JT0zcrPtQg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574589411},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"iPG19DGNrWEkbUBjfk6L","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2612828262},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"iUA9Ddc0CVYiNthwVluW","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1038851718},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"iokMHn6kkmntt9E0aHHz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4706536749},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"l9dhLkCSjs5m0baSCsgf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3712632227},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"lFx5LHHUTgHnQPquiOMs","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2818343929},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"taYZcNp99aWqZLI2nq9v","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483153768},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"xv86CDBe0flxF2epvO3f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683470265},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"yVAEXGniXeFkCfHQajGo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0836037637},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"manifold","id":"ylIXgDeMDCYkltnmAlpZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3284533106},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1638639356},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"15010","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067495758},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"15619","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857183796},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"15796","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779080398},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17178","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1224701058},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17179","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678304011},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17180","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1590336261},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17432","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0431414982},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"20695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2782632177},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"20720","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2744218381},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"20895","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2291207222},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"21114","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1474376584},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"23876","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490977097},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"24034","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3988011552},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"2577","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090981427},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"6427","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787453678},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"6456","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2814632178},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3825094304},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"metaculus","id":"7664","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1688013679},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x009f3196eb90f47b7eb23e1cc0b06759806df193ec58a0dab081eaabbe8a1310","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.170190798},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04787bbd66241501604f377f11b897879c1593b019bb3363dac0a73e99b4a131","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3160433921},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0590ee8929a1178e5490b8a98915d2e3697b5b67ec7872cf3d102814db65e5ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2229882147},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0784ce77446e73c456f7ea8216108ce3a2673488aba71afdaadb0939324b4c59","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278580215},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x10c085ad9796aa0f7eda5ba053722c8c12357623257f301d01a2414ffee3ba40","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871961814},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x122678509891ed9fe0b9ad7ff7a71a1a36aad334d9eae2d5421648b511371df1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5263447274},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x154efa11ed56deca4d0d06adf2bb711a420f5128f2a274be0d6631ed4380ca78","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3095924956},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1742f180a7ff24c2a89f3775e8f4243169085b7a25a50f15c76090b816e4c994","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093639122},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x17620fcf724a1f33730294e7cb5b6cd09a4cd37b0a635173cf839709c5500b5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2476866729},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2b56ba9f29601cbd226521a3081b150232f10e7e46591e4e33826aa406c3dbcc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852399313},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2c1d8f3388f56e1641a57eec4d7645cb1dccb42054cf0d6aacc7e353d778b4f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118303998},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x31a5dcf98ab184ef2c167c7daaca2155242d61f841cb9ac9615f1e03c77b7732","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.205711045},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x349b7550429a7da9ef8e25d421a8053aabc0b254d81f39edee18d8cad04a43b8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639399305},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4043107449bc2145e5c31d0551c6940d72d3d8cf9d81a17115eb111635cb55a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2478013626},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x438883974dfc3b261a0826c47f3f54329e9632314f85e5950b85f57d9e490363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508836355},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4727f17403578f6dcde55e284c0c62fa2b773bf14f9ea1478426b26f0e5a439d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0983632079},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ac4849343a847d75cff15174a139ef9c4bc89bdb8c8bcdd7bee61204912d549","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1991723354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ddba39e67b2f7f4a78808a4975fbdd8b591f73207b8f1fd9b607821481aa994","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3955977068},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x573dfc705c8f4250064b3ad30d2cc43397f16c9fc5b343473c860bbd04d7a3ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.354920721},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5986206793f3c14534b0f559fc4f4d18d81e563aa7e65c1f9b0f7e9281e5b033","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636290767},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c9490cd2121384ebb7a08b0aed1fa9a5239d98096d91b4bd6827c47c94951b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5069399542},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5cd8bb97af43191779906af4e624fd87eb2a07bcdb19a22b8f0943cc20dca848","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0286287241},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60752c2a562d7faff00a82238520a13a9a5a5ee2927afd397d224dc54361afd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1960101499},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6102f6b038bfeff39a2e6f0ebf35ea841c4ded4120855b1cb8e9f68b8df0224a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238199076},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x63634b4e14297a748923f86dca4fa0c6c659db0f5fadeeb8e419e48e20759c34","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517868532},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7970aad0f57cc6e4b4227affdb969e8a6db419db839dcf522c451d38175534a3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0333261354},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ade8b93914ae38b2fc95cba3e6796667b838add5f06ee2dc97b812fbd464c32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2511377076},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7e912d337aec54d321a4d415bd05e5a6676c3f04617f07def1281be7e0af3e91","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444889259},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8087cd3c2a88c34848bbb180b1fe7d119f8e116333de68f103cf3e408a7d5868","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3634528774},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81bb9ebd9312790810d3d40ee6545d97a8cbaee3233959b3e2bb4c37604e5e82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5388796224},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x87ebcc9f6660a5b9613650c3d91bae01f4503b11eb61a782b993bbc3a5d41b04","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2049415671},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8ba020facbdb28e70792e5de86005dd98d47f29824ca602c4027b00e0e9a7e5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3682770156},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x997b475d23a34b3683f6d9886d45261ac8ff69fd8a5c04618b54a3c5f2eb642e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642675167},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fce1292bea6748addd9a96632ab7455f64028671816e964a692686573079574","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620502749},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa05e93dbcfefc56ee0ab0151512dccaae63840650eaae9ed8a89d5dcbe238f22","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073798143},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa47e90f1232464539a75336de9fa41856285bc2dd5250ee509084ee90cf2d26e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580605247},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4855d0b28960be4824c31c280d274572e176313d8efda21446cabe6bdc32efc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2008191095},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8b22d7d3402b9823aca8ba68fa9beee749049bf67b8efa0935fcb8963d5d357","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584102461},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaadfafde42e214e0db9c6a652cdaf2ec1203c0f41e8380d5387f370b89945285","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646222492},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad1b0c00056e2f29ac47f2b410a91f2dda57181d5c01257f6efa395089805558","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2052735585},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb122e0e3150fc235ab62a0f17b04e7385c87e185790ef1d1a3816590ead9d2b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1789566692},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3a14c854a91cc1d57bb4ed3ce1f74a1c3a08b9d6316f30874bda08e90fa663e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136957233},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3e11395bc67c2ad811de3ea4f58d47778e7a7d209eb73bc04a21c5a7472c186","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1799020054},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb4dfe263c46220c1ecaccfd524914457f60278f5507107e8f303fa6ac2ff5eed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2024459722},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbce0ff6f8ee396ec39e76c8b60d747272e8bf4bd65f31d0e131b64aceb0be3b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2125701106},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc471a026180a086c0a887e8ba73d8016bc8dbd9539ef85ea199d666f240aca17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684019994},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5db10fafffb5283a093c435ce617a61f0127e3a24a57419e7d25550c6b8df38","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.03425942},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8081f7c63082b34b1b2497f339c291e00587e8800b48db8096fbe763c2be31c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.193946537},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd9773233f3dd345b0cf99b4338e9663dee025c76bcdae2d8f11efb4327a3566d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3714687934},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdbc21bd5109333eb7d6f35e6d5ac6e64b39844ceba0abcb790ea87269e6bb97e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6673218594},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe610902a9cbe5a4969466a5b853f9165fa071b9804aa7f71db768db5c757b96b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2032502826},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea27d1fc974b4aa0756d37bb2c72e9e424b74a271e291b195510dc68399e5071","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727632065},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea3b3876ef2d1777f4320c79e9fb08cd4dbea4f174403995b8884f34aa5d76c9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968806025},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed3a181bf912941cd49a24094cfba00ba30d3a48afe00cdabf32041324edc83e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586360474},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf16beeed75c5f75a6bec765511631c5f145b0328d20a29d4f73b1f7f3dbf8657","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1331152874},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5875410202b3545491774ab5e712a6e05a0ffe780c52270cc8d70cc95164411","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5001150744},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf80032ad5496e997beb357f01e9fe69382d7c755cde2352eba37410db006c21d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2166359385},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf808e139238945c244d8d54011908c2856a2a53b51f3c28ffaeb95de48677fae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735709706},{"forecast_due_date":"2024-07-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfe495172d67c0bd95c8c62b9a9f9815b6e35d9653e5a1f4f8c1abb051e4f3638","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0304336999},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1455176968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3897468449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1098363732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1869927854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1831985846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"28RJ23fKDFMr4Mo8YQ4f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5533702633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.666678781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3327081225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184658211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1260895516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1307308887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2545975438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141722449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.270467022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0721781168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"Sqnu2sPyuC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170214361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146283518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805338341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011061073},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328282683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6877823817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"manifold","id":"sis542tw6o","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4603632933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775712376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1597393183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"15370","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4700639148},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"17519","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751207408},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"21856","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1150436889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4001390057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"29027","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1790017933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"5768","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5123326099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"metaculus","id":"7335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2029282621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258271124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548418872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693159984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x189113c537d5f827fe5ef4805b431bc2d908241b5335032186715a3eb16a8983","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554117196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802472342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x267caa12157e2494fa6ef09c62bae0c2966d85a2b84d1e9d3c15e75d973b6a07","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526102232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x324d699420ad881471d0fd29acc86e664e397bd6461b3fa440dcd3efc514ac79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796769224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720456823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f816d82200f0198e72df1175e21d9f757e274307a5f93d075e3c14c7f9a4377","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063428506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502679138},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1288553741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e26e75da2ec8c084efdb89b1883e7889f21ad32bc36a81ed13c001bebb72929","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564460932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fa70c404d4c33639d5f3883226ccf2392fbcc87bb5e4029f87bacf53d0ae6b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509050848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1052034517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4497780037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492345401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x55881f30e5f88d7dece08a4e63daa633a9c1905ff0d454088dc16d19881fe3f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703070752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544366583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633347561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0548794703},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5ce0d897bd66142c43a38204a67ad85bc3e0643382258411a5aa58ca3e825082","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.836819688},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551960792},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6305af093bee55cfc31252a2ee4fac4b5af533b4884fda44978a1dfc8354343b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283596716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x63e3c9432d9e3a0e9665d1152fc0a05f6ed17c9033eb9290062d25d2afb2bed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3550578143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6452c3d3e25f381ce39e9b7ffb06cf9d7a7cf1cc6c13044c2403c4606b77e5f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4042827503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0579137632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1072408866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6924e1f680ceef1cf6cc14a4704a3b455b0816f04e1e09523fac4c2769aaa56a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077687765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b38815380c25cd7a3a13ed39fb0ebb24397154f237a2488198c133bed0533c9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434424801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571597642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7c3c06dfd81958876a723f95d518933ed321e96666cd005bff82f5dc18494e32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486532127},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769687384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881347239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1434594801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627912569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733744931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d98de23d9a87c7fe785f5b80fe0a030cc46b28863dd2b67971fe95cca4814da","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1167662648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560222657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa2bc057dc5589c13f985a22e36678d8a5fe85ea8b96f5d3256123c3951d142b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808894364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055366329},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961659635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa9fcdaf248a0560f83cf7c7e75cad23d3151b2169a22f22b316eb822bdc27329","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0959019638},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xab6faa3e66abacc484bbb4bd31ae5e2a56d6f6252b5023631f1bd9e5299fa2f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502567732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadde598dced41995a4f96f5c8602608514539ac4467d623ed9f280bcf7c2f9cd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1185746218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602769476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf11eaf31826a155b5aa4d28fafcebfd641ed153210d547fb431b7797ef30d0c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649222541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc0955534ca110306e37acafd184115ec86a0c989bf2ebd937b0f3b34f49e32c8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0651347538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726284941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc84ac0cca6352c640525e455600e3d7798bbf5b2259444b78910c99e1dcb7c33","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1077957765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc85fe2698d8434f9ebd0fa82d75fe2da36edfc81a354b85fef1582d889e5655f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1136963938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771347382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508113349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1686340567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd76d5172fffaaf2b0d0db29bd944a462654a20a4a327860e4e0438d13b6a4bee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753784905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482194008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4223264769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7022587535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeb681c0ed923daa35ca2af168502b6e8dead38cfbc71505d10cda6653a4a0216","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1146691269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066431998},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf78b84e417dec6b34f6cbea7002cfb4b16df21aa1cecc8eb701e2e58baf3fcdf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492942119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545090801},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-02","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554523289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383813369},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3739630862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796965077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1701714458},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"8WoZ7HL8NtCEIvdQT1FA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2725603901},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4071813772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6416595208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1441054246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"BRalVVT58UX4tIFgVeP7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213623728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"BcJbQTDX1rdmaLYGKUOz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7287338331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"C8MtRn2ixX8Y0rV2Oqcy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024998654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564709743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"Fmq1kCc4ecrMwZYN4QZF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4745723386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1261470249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578675362},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"JXCBlhekZVLlHS1pmX0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2003665222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3163236064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2949468659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"Sqnu2sPyuC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.144495577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032922848},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"gTpJ2NRBMPIL7IJenUsE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2204727619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.235833314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"hkmwaaZrisxgrs5Q3zGz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4154371935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.426976681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"manifold","id":"nMv5WyihlTP9vYXwQmE7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763881284},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"12613","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850611624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"17917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662704906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"18360","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869458143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3650588944},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"21167","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.268710874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"21856","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097219478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2662492879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"31764","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227542003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"34838","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.242233438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765456128},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35566","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602146041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7362737783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35574","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579318049},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"metaculus","id":"35576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095784447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105208094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0b60a98cc4b0350162ed884db7e46a9fde4dadf7a6900a4ef7c9322f4db8461d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1780586563},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511278461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ff3c9a02e75c984371ca27a0527e66d01f9781f3e0889c8a777c7eabf7e2d27","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510170813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14a5164a7390e4aaf3516ed32476afb1f8b5573e4416cf71bb16ebf48361b6bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1750494442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715224385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ee98e348c0ccb341d1b9566fa14521566e9b2ea7aed34dc407a0ec56be36a2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076327535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x221f8019e282a5e317f753a52338b9fcc9b727e2080b25d15454fcab21d17454","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530172531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x31857453bb6440d23f1da2773e630cda769d6ecb6322c309a9f20f9f74966735","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891424287},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712532026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3724888af3107c46ac749a7d1eff85d685fc5518db4983f354d21a15b4998559","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539091935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a5a0289c93118833ee682065e6935ded62984992f97fd5a59b4d2271214282d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062740653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542777968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46fb01da8662e5eb2496b600bbe874d230f05f3e99b382f2791015ef55b464af","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0884963251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4833d7259bc503e8d211c477f7d21a00629e926382f920195d697fca38d4ad9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522095452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4889d2e60921e596e38ac65047f01380bf462abe631f1a27e562fa6203cc7e9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.228658175},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b774c74e8672a632d6c12d04620f0c19a3ea10e74871a0239c9392805b70a90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4467008607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4bcdc5f24786e4ea5279a4f859d8879cc08b98cfaa2924862947c65db0f010ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752475249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282124599},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4f8f8d8c90f5bc2b0ed06e961b5fc9ed3fceca912dc2e242a38927407ec04257","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551640639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792730695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x541ea33998e7cdd6e3ac240de7ffcfb00d549517958d4150880e4ae10727c82c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870473739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554069917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599979076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c7d2463fc1a62a07bdf90d419269e1460f2f4511fe6276a82b037361f4b9349","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063846716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5dbd7b90d7a729863a2f931406348ee5c7b79f227c6458cb727914ce96db63b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589225021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104770394},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6301809524e73edb9ab1bd180101ae6d9588ba78075a64c479f334a6d2a12975","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0902689556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6531afe133dd1087f336e160eebee4af020e2107bd279b40d5039d1d033007fd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206523134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x664b1ef991cea7d4a781d753d72ed3aa1f308977d96d20d5714fe354caa8cc90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525922449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x67cc22ede739a48424f07683b53b546579345c8c963a9b21b7e6c31501e84353","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910936062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6f084d200834d7f47d818a652b094f349fbe6cd5b8d02a80866910258313002b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739139606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fdb5a3c2b2e161cc0ef10302fccfcae1f38d38ea0d906e385e604ba15b616fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516995737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79e6ec2dff92558eb36b5e2e2221bf4be45364f3726897163d80702abb51d315","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728243868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7be6233d547d49405c77bafc5e9d3eec72bb10559f913f8c9df75a9852841548","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842919167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7e84002d49c772d2083afaec7fbe129481f7ef8d269973dfa9b14c7fe9ee0b03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547864412},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921810118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075250591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1511898281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461027295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x924efdc8795f4221f57c2b960a38aa00e0320a8a50000dc0ba118e1776a64ad2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641915273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x92d46fc5e0f2d91a5175e8620f07a42daf2881f96d2066f691c0bae4db70570b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.057808019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621906424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98f8c3c5ce0af4b45b30b1323e132f1f430cea4df5de4089dade2e23082e1743","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667309803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b063963d2ae120f91dff588f763050c4eef52d5892370da38da7f22d524ecbb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0880306237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9f6ae0491387ec1e539b682e7ea99c77dfff1049e711be2add4c01600a70b81c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527544019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613837806},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa5663d39d2e7dd9345f616eb3f873c0109d96a52076e2185bdecb7135006d59e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4585765715},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064170373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770860079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776629421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce0f82dc8bb789ffd3bc2928db80bbc539fa04dd223d6e15e2d81eabf8e279fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071539285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671083096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe1f3dde136fcfd141336058cbd495e8cab5696cf07af790a772caae036cbfff5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524423189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3b31dd451916bf35fb28b6c9e6c1b249dac45ef6c2e02b4ef2faa40308b82df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513382014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539403479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4128675129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeac27563a0f0db51e9179af69d4557165a55144264e382f994738b4a5a839143","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770702576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6e175f630cd8d873d8051881c4db72f839842208c606b41bcdf750a1552f55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053177487},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527551711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-16","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffffb2874475ae9c1e3a0e3c3c4b4e329eb3105427aa484f357bf41c5fd77c4f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791880001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543706924},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1386","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4542920988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704478338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2107105515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1578451948},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4054679312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6321134368},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"AppIq82IcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601510686},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2710116026},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653257288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"JXCBlhekZVLlHS1pmX0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1655198478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"K8qazyZJ3tXyuLlzkkyk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3451179166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"R2PYH7Cwjk59eILygi1W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076042912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"VPhhCbZ5S8zj4owac8As","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0629996586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"YVmNKSXBBxo2I3DXL3ge","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4031952639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824586395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"eZptlPJe8gq9rb0Gia6t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1304680019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.234759015},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"pNdoqfEP3Eet1vIc44dj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5713258664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"sis542tw6o","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4050654645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"manifold","id":"yZpALnnSSy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1244509581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"17410","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.135540729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"17443","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3260634488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"17917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710184588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"19724","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1619725462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515634517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"34511","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649452772},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35265","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479225467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35268","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702270834},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695680043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35566","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564089594},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7322770692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350084109},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681861823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0863a9a895ee478f311512ac2b19d8de65000030aff0027db9e604f937f6c8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.129455502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ff3c9a02e75c984371ca27a0527e66d01f9781f3e0889c8a777c7eabf7e2d27","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405969738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14a5164a7390e4aaf3516ed32476afb1f8b5573e4416cf71bb16ebf48361b6bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1847907384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0700725498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c1778a7bef91fee7efead8137b7232fc9960216c840af64fc7782b11fff9a74","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922734654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1f308d5009b7264e4f425417a8552fc08bd0939c9a73e74c03c8bc05242845a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227730136},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e2e16f8f0c48e31806861cf0a5ac06ad329088fdde80bde3df21ec282fa7f87","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684560612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744009587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3610ae06425dab843b276102e4c8648654c05dd292e0e96a97a14493cdcfbbed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092495333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x362c61cfb577a719526b03e7596a3ef3d6d9aadf5292e2e2391c2cdf62892730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2153753168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085178231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043281244},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b774c74e8672a632d6c12d04620f0c19a3ea10e74871a0239c9392805b70a90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4191834565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4bcdc5f24786e4ea5279a4f859d8879cc08b98cfaa2924862947c65db0f010ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785873182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fccc0dcb625ea55ff1ca0409bb44fe1952c04bc16cf5255002ceb2cc3791888","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1018198667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x51f7452fddea310ba15955cfa8fa21419335b16f8310074e43f48c4856d7e0b8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3703009471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x541ea33998e7cdd6e3ac240de7ffcfb00d549517958d4150880e4ae10727c82c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0944680147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54a7ccadce22f5dcd774ef26ede3ee6b50b0c7e0b5d1ad0be7ba98780f897b51","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0429666531},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b2691a691ece9066c2b855815e6c8784011833b17d85c65976dc7494b18e002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0864066855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e8042ee380c9246f361bd68dbc50876e798d429e20799daffa435b8e089feca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1735841934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114810048},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x64e32392edae4ffa0df7134e38039fd598cab75a3e348b163de25c59fa011619","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961873215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74e9197dc739a6f4b8b92acbc066278143850716cf2e50159f62a0ef90fc50a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387189221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952644692},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x801aca082e8ab25e24a9d822f9b16effc21681be6fb852865a522a2da2f4d2d1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642862432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907827762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1418207401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1482782285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x907768d66ca516f0d013b5c364058bcbd5fe9ccb983d8756efdb26a5ee35c614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1334598768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x961b81e093d72e41855131ee700d7e649a1b627cae26fa1b639897f79b51f62d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483319711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769046518},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523407323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa50b3eb85d01e333e361b89bfdae819cb53122be9fed5c5d51db9b858568c7f3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890180945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524265618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974498214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8c94b83ed914ebb3b8d54e1038675c8a31704b2e15f5df9a619388002aedc7e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.113318014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae5e043ee3cec6bf13db32898b940f86c459c8f0509d007535b44f4e6fa4b0d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537325618},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1e762b46837d6befa9cbd28a59c91f5dd0e59621676fcae443f275041986b49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349736836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc531ab3ca41abb7d9c8a77601565670a7f491f66de4dd897fbe560831f3a04b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452753803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070432777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6dd54b2eb2346363b44be5a1cf01227a79b62a4abde1a80a8221a2944af0ce7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856862878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787600494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475327779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1457134559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd43a90b2547d8ae5902180c5880ce94490e4c6eea5be3a78270456ce8e58bdb4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464739257},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0a5b98f6e96050b794603710e39a0e3f5c0e24b409f51370b75b46a45d2dbc3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1125919231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461419058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4323782173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe70c1185b4684b0370ffae9c8a89ef8bf68d535fc77af993fdaf4717bbca3306","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646502318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf29fa22170d0b76f638c36ecb9adbdd57696e743e49c2681a748b1f149b1f84c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544800504},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf379802b7062e7054167a393f1bcb7c3eb01b9db56cbe04c63044c54bced14ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1835703749},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4fc60c446a50830bbdb08cad7e1931807426181f9201bead23b29bc3e047a79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1657635574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf759fba6c4fd415128bc840a1bf99708244720d7e613ef4ca02f0e15157b2f14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1071374119},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6268e2f40d8a59d1320117d20e11ba8547273641205de1ca446f40f90cd913","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470202779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-03-30","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6e175f630cd8d873d8051881c4db72f839842208c606b41bcdf750a1552f55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459116871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1515412833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.104320763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2169765965},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634597293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1501980099},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"9LUOtIpQ5t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572832327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4078511091},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"Ku10BoO4J0oiKmH5rLVQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2683948614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2452294981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"R2PYH7Cwjk59eILygi1W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1287265493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2521865979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1179630846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"cnowgnMl9y1YEhE32NUG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2189771022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6857475962},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"dcgscdEUc0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089533472},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"gqDRCKDkBri7KXmFuOXF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576272389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.25573371},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554179199},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681265089},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"11332","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1989067391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2219067796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"17408","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1965067349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"17520","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1387826333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"20333","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270426526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2606068477},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"34509","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5352233312},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35265","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469186476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733465181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.736175685},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"35575","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1767547001},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"metaculus","id":"36257","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4719272197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00c220e55ff24400522bc2dc87bcb4441ef5c1fea77185f5203b75ae3e506d6f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594799436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02a9f99a4a053a88b41f8b83af688c1070512b221ee771029ddd8c9c0041012f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645666786},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x036378d7e507b986b2fb92245512435ce417d05f8f76e0a75440923cb4aadecb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939315543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0b16eb7741855ca3d4383fabb8b760c897c2165d603916497f484b87ba9826dc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5732523981},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139191634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x10c67b5db2cf01b838843390ee2a8ae553049fcc5d5cdd2cc381923d690f96a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476949629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12d7301c569d569d9a465d6edb5613d1f984019d8abb1d194312668687044500","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0413264717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747717706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104202233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23d39d744428faab5f87466cf3f9ec6745deb5614a3ff87e6beff451fffa16e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1952867327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x29d65debd486144386e3d06ac15528434ee11fb844579fb2204906e655bfed51","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.139750635},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bcafeaa34b577a82baf2137057b3f9f02f4d50ee3bc6908c0a5899a3260e50a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523120092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816395327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667489464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x362c61cfb577a719526b03e7596a3ef3d6d9aadf5292e2e2391c2cdf62892730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2194797753},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ea4ec25d0491fa7c374ed61762ec9d604c52b56df0d8c5f30ccdb71a838bc1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753756816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874115428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470041617},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213428526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52212eb28a3d13e49da743fec5b0c34ce1eac7c0ea8b8d83e724c781270fa770","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054303606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0411747114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x56030c3b4726de62df7d8ffe81f194854e89a3e0804ab1fa8b376a6be6bb3851","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199347861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0451627584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5a2c59ffeb6d19ec30d9a1a689b0a2f50381d442f9a159ab9dfd2a2aae0948bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420076229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504727278},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590194928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501689673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69b147dfeb842c081e6587feb5674018f37c51098b604f0c69d99dac2e7cc47c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0981768118},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181387569},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6f6a615bee9e8a1811ecbafbe6d3b73c36369789229eee051aaa996175aa1287","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0400575595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73b046b7970a1780f1d7a0cacf73413325911dd87cdc5b63cfdc27496110fb1b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478207231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025415295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057705751},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469090576},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89ec96860a8439042a3a97a9d9ae619cf8b3c6d1bb84c4e9afde605f4a3cd26f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056282498},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98da00373106f21a7e68fa294c5d51af835fbdb8dab309da78dfdfd049fb68cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0839165467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b063963d2ae120f91dff588f763050c4eef52d5892370da38da7f22d524ecbb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765585637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d7427139c12b62d791d4f942843b9c8060c9942b3b14b5be8ddb8380b7a0f8f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06309451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcfb9bf9287879a8f4b67ca9af614c819b73c299d63a0aa8d56d013e763005c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101475828},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946145555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xac1633898094d2acac1f08417926b46e7507dbb38f73003bdc69098e0c463f02","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580714912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600274946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe69842f45365d1ac0ff96513c1dcef6253408e085e43dd8e01434c4146e8769","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050586488},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc017605da04aeb24bed768ca1fad3772c1f2dcf78506f6e868208765ee25aaaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404839002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc26b4fd76b0b5546bfda17f4303a026d8857fb0780d57715549c714c9c0d7fd9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142789422},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701335524},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc78e064f1dcfbb5f177f6d097c5c55a23de3505cfedcb180155675792dd57660","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2284831512},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832955356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468995115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420304629},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcf8a3c45dd5d9dcc57318aba8ef1026a0655bdd823d5440f5fed377b0dfef014","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560389676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcff749d64c31308b9d53486a83c3b06403e58a76dd2e3c561bd406572638fb5e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590761829},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd097c9848fb8b63b8700bf29cfc94f91ab952ff783025c89343e68b397eedb18","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593745035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5557193673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1579214769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc509c3f309aad9ad2ce3efc1d9d7394bd68eec00ce7bd529c718363a6e49951","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603187851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0264a076a3acd50925e115032eb993b51cb8b5026eb7cf79245c63f8408b3e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0677275082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.371511043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe9e10cfbca3a0aefe6fb9ba590b1812a9572b2744ed8f656ecb9a10f0752df12","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424717137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1075226182},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef3446eac0c8baefadf48c8007429643bdb3d81fbcee4074395600cc40a7c682","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0868837519},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-13","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf164a0d86e0080be4a1e559ebfe2f15b15770b67950cf9cae6923b1fd69f598c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0695459514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1352057825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703700342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218163126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1400405112},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"85llAdStSR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11056592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4338856536},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6593947117},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"Ctl0Ihc6Cz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3990442724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.140209875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"QVCzHBisAcKNfHYEAB4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2255040416},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"RtqWahA53xW6RuLCTD2k","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872074554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697118079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1385664102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901301366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7073257314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3315628224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4490188525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"nMv5WyihlTP9vYXwQmE7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0901922514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"nx9c41fs7t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2313888975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261661474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2335787462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"12613","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860796002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"17373","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2602097821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"17520","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160821881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266546133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122718484},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35266","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4378373779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692718407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7343580836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35572","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1961304683},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"metaculus","id":"35576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1300235681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12d7301c569d569d9a465d6edb5613d1f984019d8abb1d194312668687044500","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.044977667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711578063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19f9be5aafa49f68294e14e03dfb0c4b35e4e5304f41c30140942e2ddf3711ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2139373658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d6f2f967ebf572de38a27ea879c668de22fd3b95540a6cbe17ee5818db57223","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633431942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x20c21803b308b63153e9c821a55f6c4aec287f8bcba90639dd3fbb0ffe4ca300","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589994263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21149909e80c13a5c21889b6d648671d4ebe40a87bca022fd7b7f37fba646af2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7047520475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2324218151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2824855a28f57ac9abe1ee115f688b2763b53f1da10b1e881d685f4c4ef4f41a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606134264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x29d65debd486144386e3d06ac15528434ee11fb844579fb2204906e655bfed51","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1085933946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730321857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3642c7a7c9ac737ee35be2ffa14c0f91a928b22544219576a020ba72d4ac8d22","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886830142},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x36c83576575af62aa27da668d4310b76ad9102eb0c19ce6fe0aac88c668287d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1437270258},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3e15582e2252432aa69de4d284d0384c8812794274e14daa68a0a40fb80c67ed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076375298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846796002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40ee70f4ac20bac0565f5a0455e5a06d54856f0dcc7960a1b9033d9939ee5966","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099134431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4319532e181605cb15b1bd677759a3bc7f7394b2fdf145195b700eeaedfd5221","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2454727123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477219775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x453157d57aa34741278cb3d6f20d3d01b138395c3ae9eb34e2b97137fe0f2eaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595340043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b080093a8b8eade06f36e577ca260e2bcc37c7fcfe0304036d6dfd051825507","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497645034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196094383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5192692789},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x538166715f9c8dbd7ecb32fcb13cf4692f6da0d68f9b6fbacbcd300012e3b754","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810175418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54377fdef57c1c82b31385a9164e87ff58a92ec6bb64cd55bc6d88a9e2b82fd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446553652},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54f155194204503af41a7aa07c8ba488668f5e0aeaa40ce328a78a5f43eb3b61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126842499},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488613055},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5b38be7d23ad6179dbbc460e4f753760594c3fb64478f2d441776cbcd794db8a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503429517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e8e585d855c4288c3805064e74fc7ea1dab47dc0e9b42a0dbd9ca5f49c997f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3242589235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117955464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0626597714},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x677826754ff7328696c121a398fdf495dcd2e04f84ecb6494b85b2883ccaa6ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530291588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7240210141},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6bd47dc35a87927922a279a4fc9f63aff316294cf953523f77c7a33a6f47af38","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722730133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74f65609db661f4e166df3cb604c5557a60cf55448a7ce1e7884afc9d54f912a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745857462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7b94d6cef097f44d4f2327f2777b0c3f79048d25dad50bd9e752c7ea3fb80acc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530411681},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.095682187},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.092009773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88fad6af135ca7cbd55a8bda5a1243125ded68b1e521066009cc990b13960b88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878899452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8b4d1584715be1214797eb680966c68238ef24ec4b8f38b293fe6f808620770b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1577616386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1406511549},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8efb4c843e360d922a27c2afbd5ad671ee44772c2d84fa113549d82d7cfc3e0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0932373592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8f930d8198b8c189f1935a3eb61a38daa3ed0395a06c50291587cf9229e8d6fd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447176332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9107ead2f3c70967b3f792e7a96fceb49ad5e2af454b05996356e8a40de573c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0735135651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9939fd74f2d2078cafd04de7a9a8060b27ff331f8db4a737121519b81440de1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0461560636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0705693925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567396331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925071868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadc74c7282d955d2603b56ba7eee2831b295bb71596a056e46e5848b13562377","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659511595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0590554608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc28a6a59080f7ed26620bfe111ce0bac356057cdd182a252f26632a0524aaa09","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577117108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693018493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd009ac14bccdd12925a2d9f8d910411556e4ed153337abb18a97b97fabcf7db0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2564727129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6002623867},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd2f7e89f40398eaee7f1eb271de7cb32ff32377122c9272f41115a77f91b24c3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778445739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1467495087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd4699ba6ee735bac56afd4fa8ae3a6a9c89dd375ec760edbc011b16271ac1d20","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.192497675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4f063d0d54ff69eaad58ff347326773eed7baee642c61a513139207c7bb5b90","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493867103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3499175456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe70c1185b4684b0370ffae9c8a89ef8bf68d535fc77af993fdaf4717bbca3306","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593901591},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997880579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf887203734a8875cef2f354235f69f00a05d3d17bb645a0828c585291c83f3c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5290382449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf904c9f6ecae72a847f164f750ceec6b0ba6c98e8fc28837feb09119e3e2eada","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3744788314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-04-27","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf931e094c21b844b916c65258bc9b24311f13f91507fe8efda9923217fc79523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614484696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1388080094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747330283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6342819803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1958265671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612427665},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2110875263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"Nq5dlzEEpU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2713710102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.274277595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3053697737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0770336959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"VPhhCbZ5S8zj4owac8As","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756262126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1234645191},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"Znyy6p696A","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617520669},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3107475053},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2915094125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"lNUgd6UEQR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0463777701},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3206396769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"tu2ouer9zq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6811593972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"manifold","id":"yZpALnnSSy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254955743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.199368507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"17373","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2950912305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"17408","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.19384578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"17791","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083273057},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915503294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"30960","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508071492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"34512","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697185121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"34514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2047821432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35262","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278548735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35268","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3622275915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35562","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3195094114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35566","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577958308},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4246230436},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"metaculus","id":"35577","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1781185079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x01ef26bf9a5179ae2528a41ade585df98b12ceda486a6d7ef0a86697d3082a81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0758921596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164942372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1469248841},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683181031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x20a7cb88730bd709c39eff84e88c822b21a1707549e0bbb1c42751ee0c991fc1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506519674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x221f8019e282a5e317f753a52338b9fcc9b727e2080b25d15454fcab21d17454","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048440388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692060121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621642511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3711ce4799322ea9a6d7b445c39af9849ccde8b25b9e7b09314813ef787f12c2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578261612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1974127003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ad0371eb2adc9174872a91c34ebdb45a2449fb1e3306b36ebda7544cef3fca6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1132267377},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3d711bcfe9890cdd10c72971ff84fa238a74eddfb1979d001a40601528ba3fc1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1213367033},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0925787385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x42e2f652615d33f0ff3a6d1ba4fe0ebbb29384304072992d873e5aa7f9de063b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480571493},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524052401},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x47c9a51dd1e87410d89eb0c1e3994c5c4d8cc4116f5b362f9327c06ba373a7c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541337855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4c9ccd1404d105968de9b1ff3226fbafdc0b6e402a26bbcad3a84a1b62296783","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545017968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5605287201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5dd6d072364a196c2c980b52d9df93599a63ff497619e0b6a028f9ec7d4d3252","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502290243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067878288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061713967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x612e354e6b36704334d47025db5ddbf4d2c5e53732279a7ff6cbbe765dc0ce97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052359831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x65e312f680876528b4c57cde75064d0d4f317a03436c9aa9b47a754e8101d873","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117469156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6614828eb735b658bb9c448b6d217f639f3ee17a3d0776cd41b1b86398491b3c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.055969649},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7299139407},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6cb6468b0c5ea55d408c7dfbd66cb16b222093bf511e74669c8f06bb85027c58","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489494788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1147816467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x71baa735915e904511e27a6b89114a66b90a0ecfcec4b05b24eb8bd2906ce7a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655435123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x755d103d6b7d25abbb371986a60fd734aeda734485dada467fa38cb674a41cb3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500077021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943776475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x806963fb1a01b90ba87711a2f996ba125c934ed3c5a1e39e0836c94af69120ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4627594058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1058151016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1443092365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x834a4109dbd18f97695e4858b3a18d21fff19bc2dc7c055f18b96843ac1de17b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091962492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8ee2f1640386310eb5e7ffa596ba9335f2d324e303d21b0dfea6998874445791","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1543821452},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0807537844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580487399},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535472064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952923748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869349774},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa98284a87e97931bed95d06bee22c68aac45b5d37d7c8e5e0112e072a167bb31","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609969216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaed051a9552f2c7c9c1c5519b59af6df9aa81277d52d6e8eac00331691676660","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.067124194},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf11eaf31826a155b5aa4d28fafcebfd641ed153210d547fb431b7797ef30d0c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0798571595},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb38ff89ca80358305983b93c73fea18d3269d7776f3bb77bfd75b0ce838cae70","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638209783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe69842f45365d1ac0ff96513c1dcef6253408e085e43dd8e01434c4146e8769","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537048878},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774222505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850241933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcddb4f52babca280f8e5fc4b9146f2520f0bfb88e134ff9ac8d52ea674185d79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842514661},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcecc6b0236a69618a3ca577c54bb92080b0c9f2dc767de37175baa7ffd08e704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0473844221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5817230375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd8b9ff369452daebce1ac8cb6a29d6817903e85168356c72812317f38e317613","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510844219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3774423637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7343644065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000104314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee49c41419021c5282902eabae4a3f58a9c3a7c20dadd8a389385509087eb881","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.818969619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeff54605054d6070060667186f674f6b1bb85413b0dea7ad510b252a45409f44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9351632622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf42ae7d2d4707b7a8dde4394c471dc4926985cfbc5ebc92635949dd124b92cf6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9075132065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-11","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd1769e0e3f29a593d521c545cbe84b559869b188b0b085fcc33756e4ba0bb0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489682402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1540722779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733438443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1414","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2262662183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4097027474},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2513863941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1667126333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5305842922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.165095852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"5n4fsbzm94","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829522075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551877495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6297108007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1315172419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"Cg6Oy62I52","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2971226868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"DPSqhbtgeZGPEzt6KBnm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542934411},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.161751433},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.24980632},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"POZ2i84qdzsmKIN5b2xd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548840229},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"QtxO4jGNyhDzq5s3NrcG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2837398341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681280973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"VPhhCbZ5S8zj4owac8As","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637668018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1196573061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0873284209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"eZptlPJe8gq9rb0Gia6t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1345840237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2142696075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"h2h0QzCqqC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259837613},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"l6pDOuXNGWyIkjcJUEEj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3839046803},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0967631034},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2968184724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6623014679},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0804794804},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"17714","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011112977},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"18360","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0956658434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2293022018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"34516","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3546976514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7301658639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"metaculus","id":"36399","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6727476389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.121999581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x05af636e0989accb08334a74f69e5368e0aa28fe498fd16a3ca991e6dc5ae2cc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1606487954},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1321095e16f2904ccae2520e22e635b69bd4f25fc54afd3d0d838a3bf54550ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1270177172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654997196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x178e0828e81556f971edb8c7ec556e9281640477c65c56f0e6f44a6ba9ff9156","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863976733},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1430603984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2607138937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bbdf4f2353a903d9a216968722cebea9caf9763844c6a13b3db120e37c66f32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492594361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2df97e2172cb226d6faf9c83f6ee8c503ca9f74356c13a8ebeab128cda656aa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366677622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3015ee036921f18ee3e446556335c6c2301e8666279e33ff15d21d851ff1e316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111792973},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x324283263c83e789fc092ed8d3333aa93ecc6ef0ba5479db05bbcb2471c92d01","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2092403958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.076721526},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2028576687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0832476621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x43a9d4954f0d8a7241194ca3b2cd67e8aa953ea10758469faf25fab5e4437ac9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1639669771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493423907},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46fb01da8662e5eb2496b600bbe874d230f05f3e99b382f2791015ef55b464af","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1291760694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1178490357},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x50b8b0f741566a420756d975faaf4cc4716229cd5183c3a35b3b20ac2b5050ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.508771509},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x564dc4a385305c482015061537989c4af69f1556f40b958a7bd6e4cf84ad1e2c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1267952172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495152657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x580ffec1f7b057910f9f596c80d203870f3028b04784a982d158d3581514299e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533678451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5a378fe7c6e208d4d43020278d3666e46fe82be14beadc1240914b06b93eb9f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584773108},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5f45f396da9abab7848fa049eb91986290dc370b681e42e4f117d6ac4cfb4bac","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575992994},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6541a8761b97d252205e5934fb7f3312cd460cb1d07c722e0bbe3f8181ddbcb7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0591745835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ac410efb3f814c425e889eb52aab64f1d8b792fcf3348646b75f45c7800c014","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7302562844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c21b21e4e18b01887221429c4dea83232f5eb43ebd8c5849bc334ecea3e68de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568577086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6d2f4940373a13567e53de6fd2015186c298249329a5f03771a6b160f5e4a7d6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.360765833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e9fda006161184b29a2df3754b5b9c3757f8a2adc1f44291fe9907f8fc6ae97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475194891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082294793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7340d11f38c12e86886114cf7d3e0f1063758de8b7ac81db7e580b797aa9dd75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3859521956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74f6aa8144daf93f45c67ac5134ec1b6acc1c80fde043cea457929cbd6afd007","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2258612928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843260711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7beceb04f7b1d4f0dde80b58c6f43c23b8ad54b21c693e172c974f480b46483c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1154491267},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0963365366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81be71c406085cede3485dbd3801cc083d077568f63fcf1136aa1e7beadf214c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1339533419},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x829f5e072fb9b46f9769d010d41d97636be8570910c9f48b7ac203359ec642e8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994165364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x833d5d5148ac80ef7a7a52b5aa3006d24ea21eee6cae5c98bd618bf6151919bc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931385708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x889d2a7ceb311b540ceb60232528719120e67458d870fe2046c0eddafdf76d7e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634444885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c90561ffcdd15e5258609a891f227dbde5d48e219cd5319c231bb5dda56a4ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204318538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e5dd56e494bac55a67a36b7044cefd95dfe7bf8c893f7d82a58c9681990100d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629124317},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524260684},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529264814},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa07f15fdd0baa90adf78bd4d66543083334a7e5235a95fa5f241c4e519ea83f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459298454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa38126691a9799b574bc89e92e03daba67e63da1187dc821cab6b616e4b02361","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954209457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa57a712aa14e925e0e1615b737549a09b0f09db451910b68af6910b6f8b0494d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552028114},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa5c12010762d72819add78f2030ffc7e65b8296896527e5e2087d7ac2b42d3e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.178634022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852942529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xae05fb58c41ea3d2a51ac95ca0f5c48824038dc2d1dbf6ac3453ae39a76e71f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564307995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb12a219f75d35ad91ee9428d22e47f1ee6de61f5d79466b1749c8b66aed2f2d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1111897064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3a76d0e65e030f0c6549e905086e5677dcb9172d3b4bd58808e1671a0bfbf79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0447477659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc5e208a1e31c0a32950c011c2cac6ac17b1df4d2cf07d5b1a9f3fadd7c2fca5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816910826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0736631624},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512272088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd25ff3223a2233f6cd96a349455ca3237931c64358792f90c5f02d8cc39be38d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5829351424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1612185795},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd8d889f4c49f58d98538d08182a07c27206f0e98f9f0a125eda3abf94305c8f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0455122658},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3582396967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf23ebfcbcbf1648c1c8b03bba6468f1ff34e417dd0988a935c6fb863a7787d1d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612573107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfaa9a6cd431d92c91fc2322e961d59866471dab2b314a474c9e8308ffba62e6f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0544078905},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-05-25","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffdd774123c13df21ce755bfd4f65bde47a74f1377ea73c8b130d84c59831173","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2329124289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1907008989},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0821664583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4138375227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822287183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559088583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5490436221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2063329831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.126816894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1575","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2143359564},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3396225364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1578","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3109802275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1580","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1945613921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"infer","id":"1581","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3080928859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2559880763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1274048888},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605036991},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"9t61v9e7x4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4098719489},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5927042675},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.257154956},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261921958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.251378602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"LhX5FOZNhVvaI79gtvni","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2135153115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2320936217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"cWo9pRQFGfKsTDgC7VTj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.12306233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3010406069},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702886854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0896848269},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6941502687},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"21531","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2129095893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949242294},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6029648641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"35571","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3019730314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"35577","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1774682195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"metaculus","id":"36934","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4571190274},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x01d150bd16d2edf88980f26fb9f5f778d6cb661827037d7e9c24fe3a0f3009ed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620238078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1487155583},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a7e45f69a8d2c45fc008fa9d8242efa13264ba540a782d82f613d673f1d1205","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089429817},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1268403129},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502489676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15ef292e550795785df3ee5eac729517fc850936e877b165998c94351c12544b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0577676434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578016447},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x199d06911b2e6dbd3b2b4275d07ecbccf72358e46607485a403de5b90cdfdb1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688544718},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ee98e348c0ccb341d1b9566fa14521566e9b2ea7aed34dc407a0ec56be36a2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1453119768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b6f76e5b8587ee896c35847e12d11e75290a8c3934c5952e8a9d6e4c6f03cfa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987451771},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1126761655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1ddc0e7de1634d1204dda3bef66ffe18b0d52d8605c0a363755480de0dc81d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7476352553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x224e5df8cf6b8d42f18cbee74bbe0c4863c73e9fc4f51b4115c103b291c35214","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631838027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bcafeaa34b577a82baf2137057b3f9f02f4d50ee3bc6908c0a5899a3260e50a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3638754238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3015ee036921f18ee3e446556335c6c2301e8666279e33ff15d21d851ff1e316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381907515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792894251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597374695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a92a26ce837b361bd044acc2c0b81346ad66e9a891fc5ad27b9a35e6701c6e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2146901081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960100713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c7a35bcc7eca3f6e7f3ff8a942261958252b316af0ea44f9476912dff7e748","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3474747899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569125603},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x45dfeb8088ef684004f6da7ab453cb1e7cacb14330b06a4eb7ba556e47201c43","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794124799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4bcdc5f24786e4ea5279a4f859d8879cc08b98cfaa2924862947c65db0f010ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2152496797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4becea47e17b95639cbbdbe31cd968d129823be89249c2b09b911c7333772b57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1158530382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x553e544e90a507cbda445ff4e625d664d1693ca7ab2b2cb1c911bcdce5a97d5d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5197526481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x564dc4a385305c482015061537989c4af69f1556f40b958a7bd6e4cf84ad1e2c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1343706039},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567525541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5fb8a735c3216b05603d9a0620342441aa5c263e39395b0c0310297e1302a0f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3011529997},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1036453664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60e45f2a5cccd16fd60eda5f96670f946b2281b7ce59595b621eee05de4eda49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633560093},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a67b9d828d53862160e470329ffea5246f338ecfffdf2cab45211ec578b0347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8274983418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c8a58fbff19479adec1e3f4111bb5622398e5b5ef3cf0c611a41cc234c6f8ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214710554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e9fda006161184b29a2df3754b5b9c3757f8a2adc1f44291fe9907f8fc6ae97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1473255046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6edc6c77c16ef3ba1bcd646159f12f8b8a39528e500dcff95b9220ccfbb75141","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6620919492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1160318951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7340d11f38c12e86886114cf7d3e0f1063758de8b7ac81db7e580b797aa9dd75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3151575909},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1080105351},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.487820214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cb962714c60c82f7fd72cb0a5222c592c114e1d1c2c2cc65a22459d5de141c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2983496913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957850626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843696215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c90561ffcdd15e5258609a891f227dbde5d48e219cd5319c231bb5dda56a4ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159922936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b93c610b88d5af6cf4b346bae27e92645e36b8f4d45a86ba6f9287e8765fa04","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1186659969},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d4aa0f7fc078388aa90b44726a7918756dfa3ef3b5d286759bc5677d466aed5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674951693},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d8debf9203c6da07e77218d91fe8d4213c8d68d4c2864a9639b70572f49c76b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0631278505},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063088799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa2a8100778036aa3b7c6966359d440bd392465346e394c15ec7e04979212fce4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2468397006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006765017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa908e77b6376510856d9a22e3f56cb99f7034681f3b0fba5376c19adc94523f2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0765655699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3736558018},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb1a6136ad23d19526c4929d2e79c79e999628de931ca2475d138fb31637fd2c4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15419337},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2846f35e85eb09a094edbd4e93e345d3c682dc0436615adc27122222fccbd81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1508599912},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2e5f441b24c3bde052635a5ca1d10a7fa8740e4efb8df6b815276e887aa979d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2244478352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0703978815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc7a571b438d14b6fb34afad62ae1bd99d6cc9ea390b2adb6b868ad3b0b624aae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0942708041},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd5a64f75a5d7107e53e7c3eaf52865624a0c79ad8c41379faef4285494991326","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5778086918},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd97d95f15edfe56fd412a3e95929497903f16069964f63b7ced90172cd723d61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0679439866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3819011204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee17b7fabdd5cfda111e4d80924c9531befb688c65798cf87b54128f3d3ac643","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1101768689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef5880e94212f24f17d45b756c9aa42bc7d39c3feda659fc22417adae5e22d00","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1791132831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-08","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8b487261c924bbf63a422effd23e80381d152441249ace2aa13af4ab8137a36","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0618850025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603925196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1413","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903704574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3679585872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2279162857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1870892507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5912271451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1483435424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1206080816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1575","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.20147356},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1576","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.261626879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1578","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2631968319},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1580","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1739721387},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1581","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.27496873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1153784889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1596","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3118139788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"infer","id":"1597","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2405844363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1561991431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714500087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1705706691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2121275643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2331731762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2502112582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149241159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"cNFd1y1J8PgOJllEy4uJ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958616022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.32320698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"kCikWdlPijovPazB9fP1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2605407713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"l6pDOuXNGWyIkjcJUEEj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361363197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688745275},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"njIsNltHOS7eR4ZUgaXX","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2560598},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"nx9c41fs7t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1838688156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4022659515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"tu2ouer9zq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6761504849},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697356542},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750668445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6337225502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2179244546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"14456","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2170725314},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"17520","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1295023578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2651744577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886673892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4270479402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"36487","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1670371943},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"36488","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.250573873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"37112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2287063306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"37552","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1378693596},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"metaculus","id":"4919","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4325144925},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593056347},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d82012de5e3275b934dcf446b1cce93705b37e9ffe22470fd6caf7411d1d1f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780419637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.207872913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12d7301c569d569d9a465d6edb5613d1f984019d8abb1d194312668687044500","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662685755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x134bc0bb11dd106662b5d8412bbc404548891e34b6b019a1da19c26b23dda475","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871247441},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x161230064f6ce2924f0237a5b1b8de1bed35e91888ea91a6e0bc23de1d8118dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691786087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x184228c1bfc9502d38f6f9984667f3da7b2f955616f195a3ba28b51fb0539bfe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0718521324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1cfde498b977cf83dd6a0276fb287de98dbeb79554c61368d074736730883ad8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.10375341},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2ad8f879ef5b4befd518567e03c972648816df918ed7bb03fa4f6bbf79975532","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945343741},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bbdf4f2353a903d9a216968722cebea9caf9763844c6a13b3db120e37c66f32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670766079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2dac5b263a09b9a84d775bbc1cbc856559dbe49d3a2b875e7e6ad42a88d07b3b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676685482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808420758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3015ee036921f18ee3e446556335c6c2301e8666279e33ff15d21d851ff1e316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0931716529},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0937092578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35aaaa9b77b25834ddf3647bd4c34376ba3f1dcd87e3d4801c829b3658b15b82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672349475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3642c7a7c9ac737ee35be2ffa14c0f91a928b22544219576a020ba72d4ac8d22","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1370360762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0914425003},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4502ea4d02add2af615bbce9318b8c6354c584a4a78fe95110ece52de31099d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662879096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52dde4a6bf4493e06461504e2651dc090b0e11bcdc6d486f727b0272d8e8880e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2224060783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5412ae25e97078f814157de948459d59c6221b4c4c495fdd57b536543ad36729","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745942423},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x570568964af751a02d31d4d829fed2f7afe8f51fdf592e0338a08cec065f01ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662732424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x590d839e2b36e01deeb261bcdaa2fc319cd414b084b4bc2f64ed89fef485c61a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785126539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1317024459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x611f34804ed4f35b72c0e5d92ca9ce09ca70be8e573a891add05b0a355d1024c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778419557},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62995cb8a7c8c0d216a8882109bd1e05574b5df87d313f06cb3e1cd5593e6d13","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1745475784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6541a8761b97d252205e5934fb7f3312cd460cb1d07c722e0bbe3f8181ddbcb7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691186896},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6cb6468b0c5ea55d408c7dfbd66cb16b222093bf511e74669c8f06bb85027c58","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0663744964},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e9fda006161184b29a2df3754b5b9c3757f8a2adc1f44291fe9907f8fc6ae97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1220521428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1575055626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6f7fbdcded63d55e8bdb693028dd86d40c69336b175ed7defc9250e42c9cb05a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678706397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cb962714c60c82f7fd72cb0a5222c592c114e1d1c2c2cc65a22459d5de141c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972197364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145651763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0968427166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8a3efd9a41cb8bff7474de6b67f4efa778ac4dd5d8caea008b8087af0a19a0e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1105099306},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8be38f21b6c39fff2de0258b1d18fc9feafdef9e95f14d7f81db3bd3d7effeff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131684537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x99e0e1db59afda81f07b3a8f541879eaf3f4c23a3381c8ba35937c3adc0a32d1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175165445},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9e998b6cf62315fe13fd80e8a57c3b1bb9c7affcdada886b44efdcfd28c4e4b0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2345962332},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa257136f50d15c4151d7fa6464cba6a6dfc5dfa325d9fb6e414f7b642ba84381","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083751784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6de2e10501f82a91e012ab54223416fcd3644b0ec054bdb22a68e2062527e50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6081631933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278877098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3175098869},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb303fceda7906a905f697c1f9eac462da9cd8c9b1a8d18898363437a7be31561","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1278710425},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb3a76d0e65e030f0c6549e905086e5677dcb9172d3b4bd58808e1671a0bfbf79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670416065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb7f9d3f61910ecf7a5e6e46f487a039e91a92b68585f05ec9b22cb34d3804bbd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1772376028},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe69fd3d55f4a3accb1a665733d18a215895d05beffae5f417de21a88bc992b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.137057327},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc30cf28f8108d5e883038c89afeaaead56c19730ed7211249cbf60c35ff76890","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1559301662},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc3a89dee3b659822e32f8388f615907ecf262466576f18ecff7619f6d4d6914b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1170352752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc634b556b8f47434d7837594ff59c9daea654c4d5c9c50e2a352736db1d5c656","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871360779},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc7a571b438d14b6fb34afad62ae1bd99d6cc9ea390b2adb6b868ad3b0b624aae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0878914414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085742272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd00a85533ae7178ba291e844789a74dc0d2d31ca93159fe10341ceece98df61e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5637280805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174537578},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87fa4ed709b451e4fec7e09e4e600d86e8386f1707a1382fe963523b9a9fa21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0945783759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdd69d77168d6820d90f89550bb21bba1bdbe52e9247373105ce1a5fc9f55d4ab","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898341859},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561157616},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe87b10afe191706bb36b22526b65983e2a88a12ccce36827e857e16791973493","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6454917716},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7751556309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfa48a99317daef1654d5b03e30557c4222f276657275628d9475e141c64b545d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2929172354},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-06-22","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffea59c51b27dd000038fb9e8f659bfb3ea3cb8a4283a9e774bdef9844a27141","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1057348227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3433156508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1721130762},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954941076},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5513877875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1100811496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957941058},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0998534972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"infer","id":"1599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990903976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0830906788},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"5n4fsbzm94","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666205868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585717885},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3567822946},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0691954713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1451498777},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.116471653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1793047159},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560343155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1237702538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0783778938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4424316464},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1743117719},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"gTpJ2NRBMPIL7IJenUsE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1967793149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"hIZy2ULp8Z","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1725722067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"kCikWdlPijovPazB9fP1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3976613846},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.737185143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"pz96pzyIIC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3021023853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"s5sgqZ9qQ5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0778283313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"manifold","id":"z0xj9vne49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1558800668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"12112","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164080019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.132320204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"2937","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145503075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"34516","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3908286979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35261","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975604065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0829404917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7017369866},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35570","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1120203223},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4793481822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"38691","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122697382},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4790081842},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3341915279},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071739582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1157387006},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863793717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a7e45f69a8d2c45fc008fa9d8242efa13264ba540a782d82f613d673f1d1205","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.068300602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x13d630af7d1d92f010d9856abe48fc75eee24686897533948b919164b64199b3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777187471},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x16e0225d19b649692f9a1483a57b14e101bd1d5148f6636f3ce30d1043335eca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696925939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ecca7a34f32dc88335202882783f28fd372ab53b703485fb4cc0dd46537b0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0926334602},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bbdc459d73e6972f5ba1f687d739fde70a9774f4875611699fb00a9eb28f090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656162176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bef2cec162d5499c60c1acd8e3c5a3acc321aee580deda1f01aa40dadbda374","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643408251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1233208815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x226c6d5a8de377a56641a498191c5e1f3792b81618841afb8879a5d817f13771","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598011515},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2762fb84cbeb75c3fbeaea2045cfe94b65dfcf1c945e76ebaefce62e211f99ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1301527167},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2993e8c18922f93787756e02dc262c193b79f05c7b952a0c9656e948f9977c88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0910510695},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675488064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3126cccd9042f185cf2bc8621521c5b32b299ba3f41a10b8300ae5a1ee84d21a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.342074207},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x356057e0820341fb332b9de11d61dafe8e762617a0eb0a491f8904d3ba9e3a01","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552242782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0886004587},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x37100ed3560699c48d90a027e65da10a04e395785b598289163e3bbfdaca99e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702049659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4319532e181605cb15b1bd677759a3bc7f7394b2fdf145195b700eeaedfd5221","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1549025725},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x43c6353aaf12e34068e62043b933a6186def30bdcecfbbd461de2288b97f2505","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802923071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5a542fe246448e58671948b2f28bb746d7694172ad3c57b28d5cf86126834cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.22913214},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1013528844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000684919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7028fcfbf64ce6e64670e10d19fd7683eba964432ca99426dd168b5f0091323d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580531367},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1621206554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056980743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79342e0d3cce6f59378a6a016531546b773490b30ce51700265bc13e6651bd72","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667405861},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4984180711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688865986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748030391},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197825021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x83765aedcb4a590b396164f436f9113ad27e51a7d56dcc3bb7b776da455fb9eb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782941188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x84d62ee93bfa7d38836e278801c8c5ccb791482d36b0fbedc990ac2ba1610d9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582651605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e8a20aa06f5913e9efda697f16b9525b70ce1f720851e8f1a13bd46072a6126","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760529318},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9939fd74f2d2078cafd04de7a9a8060b27ff331f8db4a737121519b81440de1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552129782},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9a76ce64d7da9eac3f42aa09b1d25eb610ccc16eaf4849493b3d1698fb79ba57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566501449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ba0e12a339b01159f86cd697890e24ab2a25749cdaa8beb6a1a744fb4a93610","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6273198201},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa3958a7207ea6ed2b47fc7e3b03943e9f3c4a745cb71d7515dc529dd91e102ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3457745854},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0796949106},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666249868},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3842387363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6b3d7a2037b3faa7e1306d741840d453432902d73cc9a146a035e40271eae73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574460402},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556360508},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb96bb2fdb468a1cb699369dea9c383633e1d35a7bbd6c18f9ffd6871dde5dd4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053475862},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc2bd8cbba68f1fe46e89445b61e2c581ea96527438889eb749a852fba647920","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616931155},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd407fc7bc044a509b1eb3059d8a85af5493425d9edb677781dcc7a98c1554adb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0638856027},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd6e0317cee513cc3afdc1954ac576b241ad2287536e88b17fd3a77b4c3d0976e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1463690222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6a672e18c94c70b53260043fbc49a73395d51de3d5db2bcd5afd23efa13f97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6085574295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3506089323},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeaabc7d6b6cdfb530da706539f1acb62aae36305bc06231ef4341d5e2ef62979","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0863804717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebfda84c91d3dafde3f49bd132aadc9e762b88023021806e7345cd526fc7e1fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.263979437},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeee36eb4a7474ed4415c966a86491a2880d799479c776776a0e1b06671e3b690","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068309775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf513ac8ba9915f8da013900cf283d1800104e8789cb90b4fea176cc4e03df47c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939106528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfac98674a774531c2b7def1ce530ef2eaa78a1c444f794923826f2660b1eaa14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078303467},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-03","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfdb79c231b8bd8220c34492ec80cb0125928e486f3a4aa0b0ffeff2031b1badf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1681624952},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2649597295},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1524710916},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.117318931},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5530480215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846819992},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872291765},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869675056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"infer","id":"1599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805711162},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"09U2cQZqCR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3454454589},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0715451217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573478144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0881478758},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6519248216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"ERAQ2GcY83b6TeC7x0Yf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.064214636},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1164833238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"LhX5FOZNhVvaI79gtvni","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1905353019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"P0OAOZIpyq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2122459374},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gRdQ0Z9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0787183045},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594491066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"W8iOAuLrMal2MAwPPg62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748332008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459737717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782006143},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"cNFd1y1J8PgOJllEy4uJ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774390874},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645382293},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1775682241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"fXpDY62ibnxfUbqAaAEC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785908096},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"h7dapoa4cm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0785947704},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069173273},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6813855163},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791133511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.100062677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4822873717},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6501937913},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"14456","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1569691634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"19724","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0810593921},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"21531","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386917082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897703494},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"34514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1891241514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.515196174},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"37347","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1248363972},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"38893","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2886335061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5312403353},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02dc46f4354c1cc447577db82ba62cca1bda737bd67b73fe966ce1bfe580868f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3489685523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0702547216},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x08c8fffc2fb962e36d835621b82434b941a8a124f47558454d8eb666eeed59f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0883521522},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c4823aafbe6bf931478b1fe3b30a1437663233e22b4492aebe7b0ac457623e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1333835796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x16e0225d19b649692f9a1483a57b14e101bd1d5148f6636f3ce30d1043335eca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676396567},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19848149723bbd00545b98f45aa239864d8afd2194fec522af4dd2cb222f9766","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1189170572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x208963021564bd01f7b346795490456505f7156e9e636c3c3cc0794c04aecf45","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2788705951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21400affa8e3fdfff07bb8421d708635bc7be52f5396268dd281ef92a31bb86f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1427874414},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x293fb49f43b12631ec4ad0617d9c0efc0eacce33416ef16f68521427daca1678","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571802857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e0d7de7bb40128de91aedced917f4b8e47918ba6ab6fd4d8efc61ffe7740c6a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3860011209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666686461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2f2fd73638998d19d3a2c480a55eb4ad7cc9a67ecb9d08533d4b86e050af5c91","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763400309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x319825b4422801a53da59c796e17cfb0fb08bd5183f30d837bf6c1ae564fb9cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650442303},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x31cd7997445b8ad0233d6dfa0c183072ae240dc29691f7910ab464f36cbc36ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777163677},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599937639},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3c29c5915bdfef95a58c9e4ec2435c759633c94fcb9a2038bbe05b787e5aa3c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815874105},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f3ab94bfcb8a771c37805ff85aea28a8f1bfd2132196b9e378a428ea9de80bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582431559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x40c02fe4023e316f5ef4c0a5afd3e5eef81538d9ee98b315f503f2d1326fc7ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766400256},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5374a734024814a7e91a50b025cf0924bcf99756f40384beb260ede9322ca28f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0986285264},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54416d15d2428ec5fb1e6f2e646f0fd570f367be80d9dd285c479c8e9ce238a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2471897932},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58a074070b409a0e7fdf15a2a3b0f80d2ff77c8a5161cbfcd7a464b7331cf7ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564492986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c9847f65f9c4b05e19e08b5b1b82067822adc126a031bf1c1862a7a769af5b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975480177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017951372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x612e354e6b36704334d47025db5ddbf4d2c5e53732279a7ff6cbbe765dc0ce97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583421541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x68c327454a085b95c7ad375ec60a2dbc4163c4d5584963e782c876a131f033d2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0597759066},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c3d5fba5442f3e725eb89b7cffcc341ca3105cddaac09c1e4bc8e7010f0fe40","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0933376476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7214ecfdc0d4e45a3b1e2903e19df196851867c0793f8b4b1f25f5f921679835","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3335577132},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7340d11f38c12e86886114cf7d3e0f1063758de8b7ac81db7e580b797aa9dd75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4073091893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b4a1d4cd398a86c18b6bb9b5218917dc9f04b01a3cd4bae1c71ea345f15fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.452933384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4863105727},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0648860386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746845046},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060407289},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09855075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8be38f21b6c39fff2de0258b1d18fc9feafdef9e95f14d7f81db3bd3d7effeff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014157272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c866938d6598760f8d18bd624d6ba822b79f7e23604573f52cf8e769614fa5e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104317903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9aa6086535a4b3145e9f7378dd58a7a8c30c4b15bd4fe17eb6990817f5cd3cd9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645690292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058151463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa38b66d42e953997abb37d1f6ee5304c289f40511d5274150564a009bd1dc44a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756657095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4ff70673e8d6f76261400c0ffd9d7970bf6d8aec5f8f44b20434e59e3e3141e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564277435},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859822218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xac79577895d581eaee3b3690a80b8c575422e404ef33e58bde8cb6a906b7cf5c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570680655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3251328619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb58d0e3b3dd34b2b8d8997e6ce36ca3873bdd6034fe0dde633f11e50d4b18c69","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659291035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564494098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc7391c0c0c87078baaa914595d39b6a7037780e992bf264e9cd2b7fed6916d8d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0565060476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb1531b00e984865530f13e4ce35bcbc7d71615af98827b5e9aee2ca2984b626","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065770773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb96bb2fdb468a1cb699369dea9c383633e1d35a7bbd6c18f9ffd6871dde5dd4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.143172768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xda8ebb9d7998b0e37f912b78d8f71a9e36b8a8b5b2afff4bb1f8106e29ae0604","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347501111},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xddf468f8f181c3d02fd9614fceed3b7488ea5a0f90e921b18231cc8127ca77ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913567936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf26e0868001c55b6ece885a3012633eb5c31afb17c76ad9423a2de99b3aa4b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838483428},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6a672e18c94c70b53260043fbc49a73395d51de3d5db2bcd5afd23efa13f97","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5984638432},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe371bb4a38f3714fc1ef7a8ecdaca8a8005aecead9ec95eb5ed8184ca55a94d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557756439},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3843054009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebddfcf7b4401dade8b4031770a1ab942b01854f3bed453d5df9425cd9f211a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8067195008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf005ddced69842c3943edea3b8fb24187240ac93becdc1532c5b9db34f9dd2c8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4731191389},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0aa54d57a0b28671028986f60c2c78d95e7b901ba036daf665fe2cd3b103ea6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1028414798},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf14a0ca39d0ad5c98806e7aff25fbb6033c41093d1051fa5220f726c211cfe68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.09672581},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-17","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfc4453f83b30fdad8ac707b7bd11309aa4c4c90d0c17ad0c4680d4142d4471f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0617437608},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.40563456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1214643134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0915203088},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5977022676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1366639922},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806770454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1585","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0874926906},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"infer","id":"1599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885640008},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1752772248},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.075828288},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514557593},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0898991334},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"Lc2SQtQQCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573866063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2269144254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"SqEcEtuq28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507181732},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842851545},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1379860166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0808474875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"cnowgnMl9y1YEhE32NUG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1327432949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1465726461},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"ln62Z8L0Sd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1212831349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3329376022},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212935021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"s5sgqZ9qQ5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633893941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504904019},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"12539","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4570745553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290060385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"35263","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282485385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"35572","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1813906406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"36488","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1166230698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841173453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"metaculus","id":"38691","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2138444936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0189df05ed7bf84d799213b01a79571e305c03b2ac5359cfbb3a323448ba20fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503490781},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062948254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283002995},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a43fb8a97a73157bb3185ff74e751a8743530460013aec336810e3c8a344550","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614135825},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12b6268efb832fe64bb746b9f50a51245b761d6b170e172b3cd81a7c4f39432b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0842013673},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x19ecca7a34f32dc88335202882783f28fd372ab53b703485fb4cc0dd46537b0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0641660876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519161166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x216cfc5952a75a6c2005fa90a1f49524401abdde826aaa916af4c88a70426363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0621706431},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x226c6d5a8de377a56641a498191c5e1f3792b81618841afb8879a5d817f13771","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052733778},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2993e8c18922f93787756e02dc262c193b79f05c7b952a0c9656e948f9977c88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1076433612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e43d977463a0d78a859fdd95d1570287b888ed6c9d4670532d46c22a3a7478f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056384379},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x319825b4422801a53da59c796e17cfb0fb08bd5183f30d837bf6c1ae564fb9cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564027126},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0897726951},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x386813cf90074b5b5bc274d145be89a20f07386a3f8a7d370781a0af7196dc25","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0585510092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3c29c5915bdfef95a58c9e4ec2435c759633c94fcb9a2038bbe05b787e5aa3c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844626376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3cd73b3b011b96614556ee480172abf25896a8e1085ca4ee683892e61d2a080b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1876642115},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3e98b1cce4001e971c9b0500408e89e06dd75a1bf2c60e763d0e5f8464a9f6a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541772149},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ee86a850a9f5b495d65ad5e409e5903a1f14ccc78c4e8bfa82fdb4c497b543d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3827401177},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f3ab94bfcb8a771c37805ff85aea28a8f1bfd2132196b9e378a428ea9de80bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519395836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4405c62496c4fdd275d17ec31567a01534013c518c314ce61bb633b5e7cb6426","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530447324},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x468d2a45052a19334bd591db94acae2a55294e337ad2fb7c2a49430cd244a811","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05096237},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b795c2a883712e8e78db7b76ab82da20430badfd925512147a4812ce84079f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791746971},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x522bcdb642283507233874b9e9eca991d445135dcd82dba6e6cf09dcf40e5b7d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1809440343},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511562769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e67d2599f32e6cd86a760bf28796da2e796377e5d711b739a1686b0d17dc31c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498968611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0953827734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1983066767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517862315},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74f6aa8144daf93f45c67ac5134ec1b6acc1c80fde043cea457929cbd6afd007","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2310196666},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cd79521e16e9f6f1e82311edb96e0a2f4b2dbc92fd7264a7add59f54b054109","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7584070281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5015234424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560161739},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1094800535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x84f148876e026a2c7bcd1007498a982d9c968fbd7ff6956e0d2d11f86ec0aae9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2130177654},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x856817ebe659b1ad43383049beb1f45453c5663961f884347bf76c88ffa095a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0974298853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8838304ca258f5a75be1bde60aac106190ff9ca64e5478628b8ed454a68dbb5c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1010448691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x898656e7d7a2edeba07fffd1c4ef2098de00cb680cbce087274f09d87fcf3e12","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0951961208},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e9b6942b4dac3117dadfacac2edb390b6d62d59c14152774bb5fcd983fc134e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1411584123},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8eff77c559ceb1141d32741d418b923b613b84d5a6e701d22466bb374b20156a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5496974482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0x959899cd8459386dd0b0e46d13ce7d6b693f864641643c8629ef18762ef88a32","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560006611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa0f4c4924ea1a8b410b4ce821c2a9955fad21a1b19bdcfde90816732278b3dd5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2295863133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa257136f50d15c4151d7fa6464cba6a6dfc5dfa325d9fb6e414f7b642ba84381","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090697811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921256612},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212929309},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730739453},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xac668145450c97698032df41289265cc1eab25bc5f42c4d4809922ea7db39f3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8626687501},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadbfa8a84df49adfe502a7b36082a96b3207c9aaa82aeeba5988310e1acf75ad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615140339},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb50a8be669052c941c30a8892b48ba104fb09ffd7d82f963b511f3db855e0a1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934160959},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2ecc146cbbc8f24186766ef0b2cd56a1757227aee4cc9f951920538769a3490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531288502},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc30cf28f8108d5e883038c89afeaaead56c19730ed7211249cbf60c35ff76890","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2294794451},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc33864b627355a80ffc177e9fb26f029c2343c5fff190b41b6e0f1b590797d72","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6524322156},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc62d6e935097ab9bfd31790bf222e863b6a1509d2ae4602762ee6b8ec4acc07a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0890560184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd65c4072e48a82a9cd49e8e6be332792fb13e8e076134d860d110427fc01d374","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3810500942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe64a95a022a9012b0e5cba0c4c3c8e81caf10f7dd5a091c24714ed154e02c13c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501432752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2652288941},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee3898d16e04818aa853e39e1533b368ad57ca092ec0e6298ccdf41b62786ab9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6962394937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-08-31","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1582503176},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.286017456},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1055405523},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0827821059},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6017494181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0892940074},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1498561707},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0616646566},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"09U2cQZqCR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2633373468},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645960296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494969689},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861678551},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"86c2ccz9tQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726597708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7464193281},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774597876},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580691837},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"K8qazyZJ3tXyuLlzkkyk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644260365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"LhX5FOZNhVvaI79gtvni","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571545776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2833151021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2246749723},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"RzsZN6SlUp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2561240836},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"SsikK1jWrDZwQxDLCAnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0964142469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0712891561},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"cI9O2UsgOQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1024053706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0696359215},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053269409},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089815184},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"mqIkDr66P84o5wxxKuD9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0675385482},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7328951811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1005168726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"manifold","id":"zqPzgyRyu9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3630258546},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"10220","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505979579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5794542135},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"13467","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.074440183},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"17917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486515316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"21531","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978434171},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"2937","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0750126094},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7758469095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"35573","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5310484933},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"39771","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8281894562},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"39783","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1684555968},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"metaculus","id":"6948","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726810085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x027eeeaba097b5f3b166eace64668b2e6b327acc7c6b314ae5f03b33b51425e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3728206839},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07c96dbd0f70e5a27a0e15c22042abcc57bc6acc7f740f7935e0a08cde5e5138","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.11521899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1210549388},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12a561b723e051783fb5f5a67fbc9764986ae2996ca7b2ebcef0dc2d9b222fec","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593117375},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1672bfe7ef6d85a4ecffa9faf1149ef1a1661dd919598ab46b04a6ae0a4ffab4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512473325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x16d24ebfbf42d9f4c24f11962424d41829db6cc542593c09acee647958020382","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686712996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1985caaa507a1de1c390b2c4957e5535cb530634bd7bb4c5c1e75fbd6cc22e64","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484841748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488846917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1bed9a7702b0855686f4f65a9f65d51afeb7ca0c60f48937f4377269087cec25","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837916397},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d395b8dea9dd429fbce85f8b8cbd5aa85ec8a2e8980755756be3eec03da5b9a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747783967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2136be6fba772eb946ef5a886f2645cf71eed6ff977cec21b0833d2c5946e898","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487255344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2239eba5e038d08aa4ced697362abce36aad9602a412cd1288b8a1164d349c80","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511341872},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23b63fa147a0fa4ea0869c83885fd1dfde6830981790984634efb72620a47975","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522598815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x25a4ea049d3bd46fe71ad8676feef9098bb37cbd9d9336280dd6188a7659813c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510547648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2a34915c245f4b94976dda8afddb56452caf0ba2307500f78d7f08813d467917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693494507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x310c3d08f015157ec78e04f3f4fefed659b5e2bd88ae80cb38ff27ef970c39bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552692783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x34a8aa834927033bb6ac7bd96c508972611b826ca6d61e59c6d7d0cf3571d463","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5014324243},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509683824},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x385458d81b805f220ccc137a23e5e24d1c6ecb61a189ba2edf8812b099129af9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1914768667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3e6cb7ad03e2687d0befe8706bb9ac276b3d74c0a8c7e02bf3c6b796e25601c0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5970017475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x419c7ae262b7b17f41a077eeaec4b2d3881406ea3a4cf0d5984536fe0bd3c995","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1037000513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4928bece364d2def95c920459ab1fa54f449f99f33b0dbc93d6a84f80d9c9669","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0717929606},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e4e89fd4a8b605664a3745981cd9034905ef59f385c893b8f29add42f3b4e00","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1068666075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x53f82bd52566e30ae3f8131cb92095dd92ecdf2b0204af0edc226ee194e923fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4109792678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x56a161fce05c462bbe64fdf80b83f720406150b11ae2d35c94907ac3d0eace80","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0573180871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58d6aefe2c32e491460bd0a115153ebeb67b77c801e092615ffa01f625148aec","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482437521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58e092763b1321e8368538bf5b78fc200d9409e105700e06eceb66b35ef371aa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0837258496},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0856929734},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x617c7a90eda304d6875abfefa3638ecedb2fffe3321aa207a9e23e8fc686fb75","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.174458614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686840365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62f31557b0e55475789b57a94ac385ee438ef9f800117fd1b823a0797b1fdd68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498200558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x67443cb1ffb2bf180f7df5b6ca7adff63f7e8e933c7e41405ba118f3e9f8befb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483071936},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x68469fb64aca83a6ae036946381e20a8c8d25b6e690da1b2bb23e250abc2a261","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1108660137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492074321},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7455e92b9e9c842ca260e65f0d640108223fd9f3430f997472825763654d96c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1090521413},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b4a1d4cd398a86c18b6bb9b5218917dc9f04b01a3cd4bae1c71ea345f15fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5862411196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b5bfe44beb0641905f76ee2f32f96f47d8863bcad586678224a6dc02f03ad3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053057218},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5741249},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4965810627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595062657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x807a5bd3d52942c2d8b58bf71a583d4aa03a637f3fd9ff7a7c4a1ad818003067","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8724819796},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d0139c21a36eaf6aacda9ccac75f58a45a9f2209b336351bebcce4ab11b3b03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574203381},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x957b4d2b6a84c8bd4ef6e89f983d2d1a805be8d592e79177940058b66a204476","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486041833},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x99108ebfee8726dd985c617e76bba8c9176f69407c9fb5f2242df830d42af129","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539606212},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d24d9f9b5995949cb158d943793dea20bd448e1b3971cb6f7418bb15e719661","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0551690537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9e54856d758cd7de25b75c97273a38d711642f16eacad57e61982028f2791206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495013291},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa322e5cfd4c13c562553e4d18617be436c7ee24257b3b60a3757567ea99ce277","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485339384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098461265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa76a7ecac374e7e37f9dd7eacda947793f23d2886ffe0dc28fcc081a7f61423c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2798948067},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7abf914ff943453e41273a20df7ed5f10738bf34071d7a6a34e0dfd557b30da","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0687668268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8533ac7382ad55fde02964b221eeab55da2ffe538a5da2c3f84449695d3ba8c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0486337815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8c0a8ea0b9f3c6dc3ff1cd5163c280eeb075f17b23e50632f01a9da78683062","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1760464579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad0144e9296cf5133595a42c2155be25c8f24eb1a79266c0ec81a40a2f806933","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1531137283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310379305},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbadc6cd0d0ea4a71e3cab24b4856311a5720866c2a62d805f2aeb1ddd0dba990","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629245051},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb0e4120b64af4ff962dae9fda5e73f3ea14c689dd22e4099adeafe69700e546","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819188325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635261326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc3d9deeb6a32be1d084651a5d55aba34bc54bc18fabf2af8bc94b30849d70033","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485504259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc4dba193fa3b80410da74fd559d7071cc8835bbd4651a75e1e9fb3c3d7bec780","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6785569385},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5e382cc0cda0a640c8687ed85e8182e006dfcc7ba3a6fa6c68d53e5782f5320","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534900378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce40c461a55895fb30e24da5d3b5e01c3e5ef3897808f0ccfd4d7a9fc420c7ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1330346835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505205893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd459f7a9a61a7c36807a0a4066cbc1579e9b6277894baf778569f026ff5e69fb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490319957},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe574324078501de57aa22beaaeafe461518a6556f0f97764bbbbd78d3a8e8048","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048207949},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2844043887},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2dacab4d4700731e0b39a055cd3d522711f8c25fbd4a86dd4945f6aa8f00a63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0777345299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf34b156ecf111694d6e6841a7effb807f9483cb0cabfaa3e50283530d96d58ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0527013462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5bd04e6c5fb5400dd9deef7f67f2658b32430fc148f3ab52f011acf779fcb41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936128376},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5ec2524e8d5fdd9f4f7e1084ba14805fa78aacc9f31d58e0c713100c3a462ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1903357507},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb6717befc0ec8bb8389512c3739b5e4bca290f2a8a908e894cadb5a3785d9ae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960131366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-10-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfccc16f3bba1210d40db55ee1b71c741be5b14dc3512aba5dc32de5c6e0c4bde","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5789397349},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3079063559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1042059121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0849515211},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5791535643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1134472559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1723217919},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566650448},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059471459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737311651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Cg6Oy62I52","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2784501252},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554808361},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1162715558},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"IMLre6PYIQgsesV6Wa6O","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578943313},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"IWT36MaBUPU5dtiCygxo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0645355844},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885408383},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Lc2SQtQQCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766799475},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gRdQ0Z9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649473813},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1306160698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"WjigEUrHmJzDR7P5XXi0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1181630486},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"Zn0R05lcyR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640829712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0538860102},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"cI9O2UsgOQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0960528553},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3717649945},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"dUpnZIpOU8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635088077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514484209},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1053613979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"g6IOcCUnIz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1652238579},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"hIZy2ULp8Z","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1521282832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"l6pDOuXNGWyIkjcJUEEj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3885798063},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"llC0sSgzg8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7291519853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"ln62Z8L0Sd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0869199283},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"qt0dEZpUqu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3373609079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"rF0NagHSV237D4FXYJgK","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598498234},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0989173988},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"12117","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1223186903},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"18541","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0877619622},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107638481},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818701459},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"27208","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497468438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"29086","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0747947893},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668394479},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6074521653},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"35569","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173788077},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"36487","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952090605},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"37115","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510482979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"metaculus","id":"39322","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558945974},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x089a0dcb8e611a4c913f3f07221d02ab481e9eb61009cfdce1750491f20fb4a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628207528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c23ad7af38087ab27f94fd35eec62b4f53c0d6edd16bf04d85b7c456dc777de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1262696363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11db077700a35d7415b6198c5e5a53adcf1db1819a09831f7eaf148f88243c40","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505148708},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12b6268efb832fe64bb746b9f50a51245b761d6b170e172b3cd81a7c4f39432b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0958154147},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x17815081230e3b9c78b098162c33b1ffa68c4ec29c123d3d14989599e0c2e113","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0791605296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1ca2465222c60f5803c22fd94c6c40fa2321447f9af5be6f77dd1a5644355dd5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686064738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21d5b50fd0bc5013be79a7cdb4b3f0917127071cf27a324804c030f6eb06f5b4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3156922996},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x240f4f76613f69c1b5072abf9904a445c009cc526c2d301f7181eb33eb3785e8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728095674},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2888014168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x25a4ea049d3bd46fe71ad8676feef9098bb37cbd9d9336280dd6188a7659813c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510775631},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x277a7364c4d2c69d1cbf073440f674efb215471e444b0f52e65a49c5d38e195c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0513147724},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x310c3d08f015157ec78e04f3f4fefed659b5e2bd88ae80cb38ff27ef970c39bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558647103},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493367619},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x385458d81b805f220ccc137a23e5e24d1c6ecb61a189ba2edf8812b099129af9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2506309506},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3bc785525e9bb8e8f2e64ed116ee8b8169abca30a2beaa1b366365f220dbb1e0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408296035},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4928bece364d2def95c920459ab1fa54f449f99f33b0dbc93d6a84f80d9c9669","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0740396621},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e4e89fd4a8b605664a3745981cd9034905ef59f385c893b8f29add42f3b4e00","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1634253914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4f7d83388f21541ec765e3eda3a9b8d2b5a3b20f0d7531fc4aa46089fb1bd588","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0633105086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5203a95598f18205fa5d1fae7afdefedfbb356679f1ae6e3911c54883a462034","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474448403},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e8e585d855c4288c3805064e74fc7ea1dab47dc0e9b42a0dbd9ca5f49c997f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2099853056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5f8c3f31e7c3f5470f016e036848ff7495031bd45aec804b9bef539490866fd7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0649847857},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x607c517eec2acc6e4d888a725d2d73a99b2d1088f150f1b05470dd9d6ef19379","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911023166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x635be9337933a0e2b17c01b31e0f6017ac54fcbe409ef9cf533e7cbe8880429c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484819611},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875492776},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541481556},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7267c8c3f3db61dded13533b6707c3a3d45a5519aee71917052ddba3275d250f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0982052696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480618043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77783da9b3549399a4bc0ba504f03c33f6cafca89f6ef5d96cb1d9492dfd22d5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561245942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7cfd30f4f97746310435098e61aef950463ca3ac02997c6a7b506cde13423be4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481752934},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5341143168},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508901657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8114cbebc2067256e7e399624ca5a0628d0e70204f55005a86dc0eb083171498","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0613197233},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556834002},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8309a3b9eb96171c215153b8dccc3bcbcfa84d709f10d9319f5cb8874ff2c728","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0887306615},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8bf53bab21d7dfcd8f6c311c6f78d41678475e9184b6f16f5bbd5a9da3b1508b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485640881},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e54ef30fcab377514426f2940753d2319443057577c2dfc38335bb3853142cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0854739559},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9322e033c6dc8be6d8495cc44ac578abaa28a8cccdb783de1bff0026066d1d05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2233423107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x967cb0061acc3f6e52c3ba4ecd17aa1191e3d50418c6858a2dac66d45c5ac874","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592055647},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ec16fa75bc05ef9f9fd786f7122bdec55e708586cee5cbe059fc1b297bead17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484617614},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa257136f50d15c4151d7fa6464cba6a6dfc5dfa325d9fb6e414f7b642ba84381","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922069359},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa320756f4fc6ec9df78a0828ec4d6b5f92ac334044634566fc19cda36023f8e1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505871823},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4e7e472e1f4b0f5a9e88c0d086053ef51bb4dc150cf861bef48232447d3b636","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479297811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774341032},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3420569395},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb2abfc4e48334d87681240cd6a7e63c728e13973fbd68951b45bc86d6c4491e4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1713592706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476667747},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2846f35e85eb09a094edbd4e93e345d3c682dc0436615adc27122222fccbd81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645831131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc497f1ebe1bd67defd4484935758d242523b29ee36283025c16a32e4ddfb46b6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0483614627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce733629b3b1bea0649c9c9433401295eb8e1ba6d572803cb53446c93d28cd44","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489842047},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3320fd4b325ce3d629fbaffd90bebd0a4f45042d91bf207c9866704d630bdb9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0685756742},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3a26e8ca4f4dd9a7933e65fb1a36851b4527f7adadf477ca65106714ee26335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1113308528},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd407fc7bc044a509b1eb3059d8a85af5493425d9edb677781dcc7a98c1554adb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594759547},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd56c9ee002e2ae2766bb390373a18ecf78201df41533f2d7470f9440cbba18d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514764202},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd837e5deb894a485d1c4558e81c31ea2192205c9a15c114a06f69f558db2499e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806327095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87e6b4c5ee2c553ef726e9b6f788765bc6422d28ae31faa69e1d3838ee641d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528721511},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4a2b3d43921a62fd693cbaca54249feec7b52fdcd5c7dd8c809a38179c1cbb0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2132936979},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3015432928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeca33037ccf02ba4f3a22e863b33dcdbd4cd8946bd38d2d8aa200bdd2c185421","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0653754809},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee3898d16e04818aa853e39e1533b368ad57ca092ec0e6298ccdf41b62786ab9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6815168539},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeefdfb2a32f7304c9f07a7a752731529b6b28085c02cc711d9714f9f0511fc14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656910261},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf18253f5c0b0ffc42172a435892bbcbdaab54119e874580148961e298dad6263","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771469196},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-09","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb0c98ef42c5c48b5ecca31e555aa0565a31958261e2d6c7b4cb15bbd417cbba","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3629416543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2707171663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961053668},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0771520231},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5878123516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939289085},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1593665144},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582640676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1674","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.754230079},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1675","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1060770521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0802962822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2483471678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"0PE59gu09y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4316606082},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589903219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570062061},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492041958},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.359275535},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560904651},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"D5o5fIGpQnjANdl2DxdU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0930060664},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722884124},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"RJH3aufks8LK0Pjyhrgl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2563383927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"RzsZN6SlUp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112969826},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"W8iOAuLrMal2MAwPPg62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0903475671},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"XNj8OH2nbvgjiaHvHuAp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078375166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"cI9O2UsgOQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0872527538},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"d2sZ8AIILQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9184816188},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7096375107},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"dUpnZIpOU8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610563092},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3231240794},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"fXpDY62ibnxfUbqAaAEC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1309075462},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"hPU6PpN0Zg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583183541},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"oj4g2w07uo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4969725282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1801388691},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"qt0dEZpUqu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4077291424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"rF0NagHSV237D4FXYJgK","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662772037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7638097871},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4108282554},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"24814","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0752818007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0799249373},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"27208","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529509056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"2937","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701168712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"35564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728205843},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"35567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6016596625},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"35569","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1145750641},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"36488","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0857654075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"38712","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1246348767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"39756","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1922239537},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"40437","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0949402822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"5768","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7580112773},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"metaculus","id":"7444","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4639552429},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x085126eca944aa0780b425fcc46ab7276cd02f2f59b7934ca9e5ddccfbc03ea6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050218548},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x099952efaf314cb44fcc6179e1fd8ca309e473f7dd924e980a381b70648f2887","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646607087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0ac91dc0674ea0b91e6eb9cc4a20968976d30fbce391a9050c70eaddf2fba354","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0761431014},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c4c1d224e536067363a96bb1916acfcfef47d503b8838c0113a39104ac05428","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1349055364},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d82012de5e3275b934dcf446b1cce93705b37e9ffe22470fd6caf7411d1d1f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05427805},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2049638936027998accd2d320af8a7838ed1f673a00d0a22a288d5f678015e03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2677379225},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x21bdabe2791e7a70a02829be6a3dd7452fd4f6cba3b1fa1abed109941d8864d2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566686173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23b63fa147a0fa4ea0869c83885fd1dfde6830981790984634efb72620a47975","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520921298},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x28c6eb83627e96f11777ff333703d5bdbb15799c4df7e8f290049464e54198cf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506495},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e51ed86458e0a53ef3a2e882d2f857683dfe41822c2c26176c971e25a5a8db2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516173238},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624371386},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3d64b85493b8e6602ea4dc4ebfa1e8b998594c8439e4e0d730ce6e44f7e587e3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491896195},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ef4a5e6c74f646ce7126c7283b1a679c76db679b3237c2c6eaac27249b13dfd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1282892768},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x528f7bcfd3328a767e72e8d27ea7d345a861ec94c81004f347e571c08a3b00dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537281075},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x53511c6b839a6f653f7b5b3e1e6b8e0f90b8b62a3a55731b47158f5057f8f23d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0667507797},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5df1f890ef485a7a79a4bce4b3c7bb4c12b2e09a65809bbae8cdfa04e5ae9ada","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0504694645},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069213446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6d1ed397657b875e9908b33609df303fe66938fe2a7af7f36c39fb45b3b0a1c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560410759},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1470223835},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x71731ea04b650cd0d6d644c947f3d53200ed50f10688591863db1a36b464a22d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545734584},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491559699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b5bfe44beb0641905f76ee2f32f96f47d8863bcad586678224a6dc02f03ad3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510648939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79fe1c0701d145ed4b74e6b7b3658acbc9b016b70e7321afdb777ad14e8c236c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505948503},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553221232},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.056362259},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x830eb792fa2f2a591b5a0610a76400f80228629105f4f5896434be777665265c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0614231024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8370b54d8b25a8a408ddb402ff7a03178139f59593ee97c03a10a43523516404","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1975916929},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0943265406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89c555d51c3ec91cda2cc7ee12f8d69b2376f81c46b0588c1616579de7ac8c62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637095087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8da154fd9e7dbe6b0f22ab3626f36da576bdbffe533e4528fa7fd3411ae898bc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662037246},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ec16fa75bc05ef9f9fd786f7122bdec55e708586cee5cbe059fc1b297bead17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502606923},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0698157378},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0595217784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad5642932e897c551def57ddc3066bdea2cf0eb13fc40979c1043743fceb5c9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3530780071},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xafa3f21a2211a95b222a0704d1b763a48770905ff090b0143ae724013b51dbaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612219927},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb5f6d7f3158494f1c433c25237e61cd33eec00943a6cd95d67b1d0b06cb7ce2b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725156134},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xba6ca85827ba3fbf64fc67e3c14283dd0ea82a1ce780609a7c4f6bf469748757","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492617185},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbaf7780f9059e34b84301fd411f8dc573b4d56adfe6e0cda33daf304b1438da4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048452642},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc19b7dee8883e27c2e617cfa9a8875c5f014643f760f72121f4a769b19536c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1276652853},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd52b67bf1d97f233f1ab26362496091e04e27e2442cffc0803ad4a462f8cd45","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517030726},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbe1c736f56cade44537b90c07edb9209eba1ab044fa57b6f3900b8fd26570c61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531821024},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbea5d5174cb5355eaf0f8cee780e67d0b22a6ff614ef7ec82cc2fe6ce8f4b111","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.054314637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c4e7857dfd1fe47c1e6a11813aaca3f622a5f47769cd765be8c7a8336af555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485716424},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2db6688c6df422104ee751fad721b03ade9c50a8b3c85588cfe4a20ae62ff63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1989001125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc62d6e935097ab9bfd31790bf222e863b6a1509d2ae4602762ee6b8ec4acc07a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670069137},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc2bd8cbba68f1fe46e89445b61e2c581ea96527438889eb749a852fba647920","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526049228},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce00f57f6c107650846b17205996ba79979a94b942c5665b2d525599669c13af","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1067211338},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce4459c8dfc2b0800778305722ee9a2ad2c62f001c8a40d5e0b136c9e6a679d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0485668285},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd19badcb162eedeecce239e19a99e90f1b7751ec043f86d3dd5176c582a4316f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0522068783},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3a26e8ca4f4dd9a7933e65fb1a36851b4527f7adadf477ca65106714ee26335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764858967},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde03be115f0b584287ca34466b6d813dfc64d32771be3bff04b048a4bbe5569f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537532197},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdfeb85c9ead70f3bd0745bb8fec317a21fda07780453d239a255afaa72a190b0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540796902},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe202539dfbeced92dc4112f134a205c80ca6cf4db32bd82f05b291c297219fd8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489477748},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3227936206},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe9b8664d3302d33a25b0612989da47a520ec005d1da55fd73f85750a8837513d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521083676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea378c9f7da196849f2afc2d56ccb2efa087bd76e02e30c44748c0693520c201","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1201050516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeaab9021b99acc38699821455c9332838c88f1609071f7f2e39da2f56e52d9e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531359031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed01e807e649339cb23739f6735fb9c2284560cbd7bd9ad210c786127fb5f66a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518874326},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xefe3a05506e08fefb8c1998aa607fcce31e32a6852ef60bee4c71d0935c97950","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488092372},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf06011674951b6a853154b841dda3bf555f72f5514d9a64b50a81de836a6c19c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510368942},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2b177d6267194487880857175f9876fb2d352188f681dfe8bb732a665512305","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1001553235},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1258911095},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfc4453f83b30fdad8ac707b7bd11309aa4c4c90d0c17ad0c4680d4142d4471f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510745062},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-11-23","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfdc5e6ae42b83659ba19f06ec0051c001ad5f9679f4b0b4e4dbaac5c6e82f4e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484491421},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.272172325},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965901586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654544263},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5894455122},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711982031},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1609208775},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587195064},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1674","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7394993892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1675","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1391851986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0780449241},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2810862476},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"09U2cQZqCR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006340737},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"66FpF5wc6FoUxdSUp9Ch","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536552483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"6A0Csq0Z9c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385385449},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"6MyYH9TqA0FgSsx7Pare","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518571514},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493284763},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689468454},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.757614879},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"AaZr2KnQYHGRVHzvKoHa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3105778081},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"AtLFLzDlSERmVcSdUapy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1226946025},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558549588},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07770676},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1139163607},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"cE1pnjaMDDaOF16V14Y2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523581908},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3767570299},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"d2sZ8AIILQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9556624301},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"dy9yI9PLIh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052623626},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"hQQPLApOcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553403899},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"oj4g2w07uo","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5337674434},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"pdcRPllUC5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1386001745},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7176212873},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066645963},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"ygZRENPOg5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2018575158},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500204543},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"manifold","id":"zqPzgyRyu9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1876436585},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"10176","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0515997086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"10220","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0766696816},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"15370","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5119724224},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"15602","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1252266663},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"17095","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0612366938},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"17110","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760473078},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"19949","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1095594131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"20172","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1834640582},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748069272},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"27208","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0640687205},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"39002","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8249503769},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"metaculus","id":"40407","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934789982},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0398ee767efc168f65bb148d7ac5874406ecf38b0585262c259c07b72a40b362","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711867483},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x039b48827f3c6b83f50153715af8a66f2b74b04fcfc5def13acb3f151eeb3d81","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1549007491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555434953},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191337667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x098e2be3df8ab529940c567819f8ef007cf007820e9d627642a5bbfaa42af372","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488824851},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d82012de5e3275b934dcf446b1cce93705b37e9ffe22470fd6caf7411d1d1f6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525841516},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x10b0761fd0412d6ea433ced8d4b0aa589c11831aee0f6f96383468526c979818","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0627300443},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12993004a50c8a25454afbc8ccea7a52f9e6f5ddfaa218feea52a4e95cd874bb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079768463},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14aa27565d1f23e7770fb56459deafa6d4e179753e936ce0a6b24fa874e939f1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0559392491},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b74c3efe140a09049e0eb6b6a2112e00fa4d199cdc718c1a58af1abf6d9e49d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505227637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x243e5b9e30e381aaf91ee500db1be548210e8bb8c2a463f5bb3f86ffe8ac3f86","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534250017},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x293ca6031d80a410833bacb197ed6c193e79b0cdaaf6539d8b0f88f245e1ddd8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492521728},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2beb6918bff42cd269377fffeb7d458c1e18a06efa56097de608397dd8d640b4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0610402709},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e24ca91d308d503fa3711b0ff3b4c40e0d971e72bbc8012448c0ece02328a69","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.214735406},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2ff4e1a7dd9e8dcd56ae537b2a360e1dfb7cc0498849af11d275e10de13e5635","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499827586},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x313787d313815069851d81a35de415dcfd9e223ced2a0ab19fcf9ad367ff0a76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7801252696},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503563016},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3bfe92e518e3cc7f569b70cbafcf40449bd9498c7159129275c33822500457b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519611984},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54416d15d2428ec5fb1e6f2e646f0fd570f367be80d9dd285c479c8e9ce238a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2199726265},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54e136864bfd047505b0911da4246b0317d2a7305708bde3026b54699abead92","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1069638755},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0835965891},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69d6b4d10ccd09a4f78bde4510cacdc9900db0e9b24d4cffcc1fe9f686f94253","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0644884219},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ee22365b6602d928aa7136f549cc0d718bb16b044a6d15191041b84b5f1f43d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.123910917},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa38b11b1909151a7c1c3bdfb77b24716adbd7ecbe9904ed14a572886120e76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0999675331},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x712015ce8ac2c87d89bfacff5610f225c147a147441a78654846d1462921ede7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1832590036},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x73f71c364e6085e956abcd950f2176abcf3a6959022b5cc008fd505f296e335a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0492308442},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x752a5087b40fea78569dfedb2257bf7499eefb50970fded264c94af8b40c1027","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623069276},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7601fef4bc7a7c280d4a7c3c3575afd7f3902b360f01ce2ec0bbaa03df65a105","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815368986},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a250aca74f2938d9fee6b975cc5a588de54c25a673e272e0884023bc1be7a61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.063773573},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a6a33627efd7e57152db2ee806570408e019bd72967158d4bc630863207c6e1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545702098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7b11f426ea2f966b193d4a30bca3b9a7a94e1972dbf3fe095d41d21a4793029a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0574395659},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d98815be880769be11a63b4df815b9bdcbf6ae007a8caaba9a2909816a8d1c6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5530201784},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528094169},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81fb3e948db1f5645556dbc01b96f50c319f1331ce8b745701197b8264c1d344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534178832},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x850c1624dc9d8ca9850195df05293ff85273e6b92e89a9551cd0a57c2f72aceb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1207437292},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8947925aa89cdf1e70d7755df73c099c1977d322fb64ac20a2d2ee9850c9f913","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2144756799},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8b89c599a91f9d6520e24bf1be251cb87cf43267cefa3cebccfc6f685aacff1a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6251972939},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x92d98653c47967f7516f20ebc4bc04bf21d59cce083431cdcc9b3eaa0ed2bea4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145479818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9954b4eef49a268b810bc260ee9278361e29a8f6f4ad816a804dd613ef73a968","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674011204},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d24d9f9b5995949cb158d943793dea20bd448e1b3971cb6f7418bb15e719661","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061435222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fcb9901d142b5046467b4ea329508bdb19274eb1fd0fc833ee1916edd11cb73","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05179721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0603261721},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa95216e111897ab824478333cefaf4cf6d21e5bfa159fe8a6c5cdc294edf368c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568134678},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb7f9d3f61910ecf7a5e6e46f487a039e91a92b68585f05ec9b22cb34d3804bbd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091505277},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbad74413f87762c2b4423dfcd72ccce4c561bc59f33e7ed474b33ef917b802a0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490282365},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd9fd3b8f8d03be096d57504e836bbc0bf46853184302a75787d68d2f6ffe273","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549502266},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc798fb82e89b618fb35e32f3c23933b0b69ee7a3e917e6d05e5052127ef72a6d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520158831},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8f7efe4f5cf3c6d5b51cdd87cbd360e7f2a3b9999f6b8fa96d2dcd96e287141","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497179667},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb8af0c28d73c486a1bd1080eb4183709cc4cc3eed4420c7551d6298b0adb6f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0725280767},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc2bd8cbba68f1fe46e89445b61e2c581ea96527438889eb749a852fba647920","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521473712},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc7d2919c23e00507e33848288f15fb3473e536bad6e94e355ae71e7e651ed0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5746667643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd01204c643956b06dcb7ec56f07ea473bdc9e61a7c29bd1318df0e249b1050ea","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517189855},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd1754bc54ec5b0af53339ad69d868bcdf5510242212a400db22bc865b103bbfb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510312822},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe4a2b3d43921a62fd693cbaca54249feec7b52fdcd5c7dd8c809a38179c1cbb0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1839210098},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2804731976},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1554","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2720979087},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1555","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0811057189},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681276056},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1563","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4430079643},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0900699785},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1644459363},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575046192},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1675","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1528533746},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753243478},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3308249682},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"1BskFw5s4FlnaJET30ai","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0751222738},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"1N2cnoqviIjoUdO3g5ke","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575338577},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"25QZ5yn8hQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3424560852},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"6Zyd999ZP9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490889251},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"7L7arFnaO0Nom1bLY295","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0636621446},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"86c2ccz9tQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0844470743},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"AZNPqIQuA0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6960563894},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"CGb5hO1YNNR2bAPun9WF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1128399396},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"D38AIR8f03odzU8ZvoKr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683671517},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"IglOIIg2AI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720104344},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"Og5u9CudhA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2544492892},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"P0OAOZIpyq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.096191915},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"Pd59AAtPOR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0556136133},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587784333},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"R2PYH7Cwjk59eILygi1W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0543600513},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"RzsZN6SlUp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090582221},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"UnsISN6Qyd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083895418},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"cU2Oq6qOsL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3362909821},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6760287592},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632904384},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"enDYPoHVisJ5GxcrK6bk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.334085565},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"fXpDY62ibnxfUbqAaAEC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1589043706},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"g6IOcCUnIz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1645847935},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1031298698},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0727067657},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"l6pDOuXNGWyIkjcJUEEj","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4619820181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"qR35cYHecZVxkh7n8kJ8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0519235054},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"qt0dEZpUqu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520445818},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"manifold","id":"s4GyWK57MvM5wGvwPMhk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1121130699},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"17408","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0843533121},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"22560","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0605231875},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"24789","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0769121637},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3870687282},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"26328","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0652648227},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"30344","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0739330043},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"38671","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1429006125},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"metaculus","id":"4919","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6568650438},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02665608f02cd63c26bd78a419f932db289b5300fefc0e18e50b151349fd85b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050453525},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x07f106c0b60e94d96a63954f0536811c1a0b054b958f26bb749689b620b72f50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053128151},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x082c611e9d2e294e256c7e6bd40aba498eb6ca2c0d2dc9bf5b8fdce5b5e8af9b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1221367086},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0cd467df4030e7da99133ae20665f0905e6a9cbc6706d11c87712730a0434170","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0954127735},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15a18c82b90f8f6de9bdac99dd763865910338fcab9366b119fcf8d372d4768b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149889937},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x182b89f680380a2428daedda8d8fca19416569f8c3fcec997f00780f69f81f4c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0911681815},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a5edf9d6f7813a5289f8e410c5a033abbd52576fc1a2d44aa34f2a4c86303c1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0733440254},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1df6862b69a47872e75864cac21b9ae9ea0cb552884d38aea9170c5fe5321bc6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683708928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x216cfc5952a75a6c2005fa90a1f49524401abdde826aaa916af4c88a70426363","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517581572},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2ff4e1a7dd9e8dcd56ae537b2a360e1dfb7cc0498849af11d275e10de13e5635","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049169655},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35915279267a71c7a89e07747e645107bd7720209a7ac145ab36af6c6ac35c67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0619053316},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x366c465e379145d0ec1ae70dfcaea8f69cb42e769895edfb420888891e3df9f5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0557870021},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b1a3232b14a029f96a3e1b04a5d8dde31575d74024389b53631e73b4a494480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506235352},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b7e03065f6437f93e3aa6fc2cb4ac0af068d7c8b0ffb32e26296b078feaa507","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":1.0224001646},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3fe28ac4aee597a761ce00692605e9b8701a544365eb781ddb7453fb10ae31fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3958486083},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x41da88e6d6db2ebf5fbb868d93e97c3052121a59d1222c00774119427ec9efe1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1007419007},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x44416d349bbeb6edcbf23027e6966ec1fce5a9b7d64d26fd3529f9465c40c450","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484182153},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x468d2a45052a19334bd591db94acae2a55294e337ad2fb7c2a49430cd244a811","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606849983},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x552c0807e8b239ef4e7ecb9d9e192519ba283acb731c5bd89b6b1cda658a2f8c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552970713},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60279053b72e1e5299f66a6efd4f81663d0de5bedfc6bba41d6bbd0a9dbc9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0823337521},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60acc46cda1f0619259acf3ef8c77bf734ff08cbed256ca3d1e9444138e21266","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860819009},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60c447987af838c9a074ad7d44751135be94a20580982b72d76e9b542572bfe6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0620071172},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x62b0cd598091a179147acbd4616400f804acfdff6f76f029944b481b37cbd45f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520146037},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69b009591dd768c3878e2ff9b28b8661e039409ea2f156ad70aa5224c08702e0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1110960469},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6aff6e0b36e00aef86b91c825b2e67561e172faa4b5ad0db7c91a38c87774826","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546885296},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b2e51f006ae5613849c3913db2a766390a05c2d67bc8b0b0872d3d63cb517ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0728303819},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e6a763252b7d1773a82e293be9e3c689a245cf07a3053bc93589d99b4ee0916","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480948627},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77eaf36a80197a13ff32e31f05b54e824a6fd21d93f1001abcc18ba8d9a7ed16","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6443850268},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a250aca74f2938d9fee6b975cc5a588de54c25a673e272e0884023bc1be7a61","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643669975},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7bd85b3f517c51a036127fd585193e811754662a33e0657fae6f2dee09755c39","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0495949492},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7dd03775ae64ca4da06121fd75397e3a16cd54bd02a52faee8c22799e34b8458","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500030811},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7ffa1fcfaeac86d4a89afcb74c90296f0e7c3744ce5206183c9cb38651526e63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501528166},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x80075f84b96d341fa75f7d95616607d23116f6fb41cf44f1d079f6fd6524b601","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1245368633},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81d74bd6a217892b3835dde991233ac5ba181741fcc51904980b98865c20530f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501648914},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x86d3e198cc89b22d04ea77fd9d760b557d934d04d974578526ac4b063d588113","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1033758648},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88fad6af135ca7cbd55a8bda5a1243125ded68b1e521066009cc990b13960b88","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0564771552},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x92d98653c47967f7516f20ebc4bc04bf21d59cce083431cdcc9b3eaa0ed2bea4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1658395173},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x94867c89a77b18380ce1bf85006f3ccf2ef5252e0dc6319677aaf615bd857bf4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482112181},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9883c17e49888b1e1fc4227d3eca7f4dc7d8394157073714f57965cb31ae5f57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732692634},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ec16fa75bc05ef9f9fd786f7122bdec55e708586cee5cbe059fc1b297bead17","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0746882065},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa15eb6144875ec22c24b18c6f34e0ce2d5783765f740de9a4ac0e8fdb10fa832","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8413212754},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6852cb4eaf23193e9dc073471131102017ba31ac9571f5ee8a12c4cc1800d7c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688269366},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa8b8e51444172fa84241a90ada79de23ea3ae3a3eb7262fa99f206d147bc8df5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580161342},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaa368b9b8a22b8fd9338f3e46b4ce5f856233ac5ff45e30557384846279acee7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.202836694},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xafa3f21a2211a95b222a0704d1b763a48770905ff090b0143ae724013b51dbaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535140457},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xba9aa10e79d2411a71685731968a8dd15662d1d900173f189c3261174bde1108","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1211389222},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbacb4cac4e7ceecce559529eb0111f0db4e45cbcc739db3957acc885a8f82173","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487762604},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc848576777751e56a4db0eb5e7d4c764afbe80e116fc75584e69c0914be0a5b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536984812},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcc5494faf5ceca60a77a46db255b8c8e30b1bcc7d94d9138f5d4e945bba1ad34","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1446307889},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3a26e8ca4f4dd9a7933e65fb1a36851b4527f7adadf477ca65106714ee26335","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542882731},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd56fc2650cd0885e6aaec513b12fed083cac789b70ec6a48314fbfb079f6ef4d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763219217},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdb4143780c085f54f82e6baf461e4df46ad900df8148d03258da93cf2c64b165","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1800660555},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde9fec321fb6a4a264d6d012ad2bfee3b29e123797ce02765dca14cae96e26de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840028793},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe26424b7a84fe280b7202c5bd8a6c2763985510ff6a2c663c7aedd23881f7c79","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588477729},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6508d867d153a268bdab732aa8abc8cc57e652d28a23aa042da40895bf031b2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3114101239},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xec80d091f823b3fc853a3fdb01e3c18500d7e4d1405d54815e41ae54eb719962","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1648255131},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0de2f1576cf959a259b5ffb9771f927da827e3bf7bd21e6385b3a10216646e4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659996752},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4b2d2cc364a536813bb400a0aac9dce912e8c880f4f368bdbcc59256d50a3f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846216084},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf66b13dd3447b8908fe4d3cfbfdfd9e6a18f506f6d694af5ee3c800d907b1301","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500651928},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8a6ec4f777d3453e9171ebb219eb3d79dcf5b38d247e514f437bd2dfc834d47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2869896574},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf9eec8c6bd3bcd3effa86198cddf3283c550a52e7dc3441f3d786a08285d90cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498591711},{"forecast_due_date":"2025-12-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfd96c4b3a2776ef499ff06ceb78948b62eef81c1d645a4f82aacc0632fbac36d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547355165},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1404135128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580731503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701610117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2791145948},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.485489133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625336792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.38370789},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3050769957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2401579834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"Lzdc89CSzq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1570155312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583236369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1279230288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3383028921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7267814623},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1022662316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"metaculus","id":"10220","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501760105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5236567433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"metaculus","id":"38917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0545644203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x005866e059fa8deb3adb20f9b169a61a63a7289d55c6f3758bb105ee06ca7dca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1014559682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x089a0dcb8e611a4c913f3f07221d02ab481e9eb61009cfdce1750491f20fb4a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0632317258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d44a3b546096156afdf40be8f37bce617970ee3d0901d35f4ade50d46ae18a8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6411547077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1858125f6f8bafdbaa63b3bb90cb0a01ffb8f1f2ab56fd71484135b8fa624986","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069091189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x18b1dc1565575cb2ff48bbc078070170ca3278691860cca7c97131fc657a9530","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583800616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d54eb5eac2cee8f595f3097c65da7d07f8ab5dee63d7c0c6883eb70e1e9af30","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0996540565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e5efe84a9a890e61044d77ea6e182f39b06d5b382c851b926cad54cb4972e68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085317079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2656608867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0547921725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2c2a97f760dd525d97c9bfbed6fe3329bc835c2d6899e14b017ed6e8ae63a1fb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0678537563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2e1a4dc939f815ba720dc1eba072191c2271bb0ea2fc36c54535db0121d8c48d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0549184368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ddfb68ae4ca088d2ae91ed40d88a3a68266b9855bea5e33f8a8e1d53ab5ff2b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0724959054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f34e931e2457b68c4acce8c4f4d0f5e5a1a9d68afb44afb70af88478718dd76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606579647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e16c5196f59f08fad56fea688a65daeba2e5be79b7c04acd56ca7395cdb0885","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0997717418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4fe305a2ae995a52ff278895344895fe587b4fec3d5f04347b4dbf5e99bce99c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488575517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5deeed404db866c400ba881b376216c3c2bf0b3a3e9372cc61a1395ac3d83e37","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1092738841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6680cae9b37261f6c1ec3313f9ad175708bb9722e94285b5b0a5b50a9972d312","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530286163},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6956a94cc63efdd5bccae33b4cf8a0880df301116ccf1f329cad25683392044e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049041014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1391491661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x72b25fe7b05903658eea56ffd995dc4f0f252d49d6a9a202bac103dd29ab2ba5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524144658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x75a306decbed1a9668d948fc331a899a3809defb55734e2eb5c2dbe1d4a3a03c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517767229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77b9efbaa8958fc73ebbdfb6649eea71bec2abe28d1e88988a0a8064caec8c41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507577512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x796f36313d1142d739eafc84298b81832a1fa0efd4d332fdc7f03a9a906ff012","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3088928738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0589984095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7dd03775ae64ca4da06121fd75397e3a16cd54bd02a52faee8c22799e34b8458","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524708742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8b8213717b514954ca6372540403fd11ec624db18deb943b99f2ec40f5c38908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552179585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cd80bf80e98abaf64e504363ffa8f557a9cd7b0c6cce02590bfe8025c329691","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3322457258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0x998acf9ed1bbda06d59df70786441468872c72b2de59cacbea93625b14a5efcb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0665948628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb1e4027b58c6321ede3fd8e3737b2b440ccb51fc569854795f67dd407b3569d0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510701378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f3732fc2464da2ed17f4270dc87ac59a2b4b1ed711d491f9584ca9a783c95c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606527015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb7bd534d9050f6d00f42fe5aed6e8a7fb0e1e633db19f4299436d11434324ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0582367708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd34bea66b3d5850bbba37d2697059cf9ae4f5e6abb7a60a9fee41aac6e60b77","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0805053099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbfc25a82b6a6476895991401059bab3a73df1a9278400d70dfad080774a981c4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017392867},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc23d4f3a1a96576e93f32ab1806c6d85f5a3d1925df7c80bdb97cfd6787b4dfc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622473491},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6b173db2582f7ccb12b7e541ab510934013b2640006712ae35507ff75d707f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521333979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6194063314},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcd14407814c97e5fa5684e4154a63be045c048365a8b12acab3f20bc9286d3a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0683756559},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd3320fd4b325ce3d629fbaffd90bebd0a4f45042d91bf207c9866704d630bdb9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0686313952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd6203f8805d1812e3b189da3f6036989940a415ae3a0fecf83555b455394fdb8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516018265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87ac5bb74a21061d4f223d2a83c0269607fcb6d4c74d5a3d3220209d089431a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568454418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xda5e93ecce25875195aeed7d427f16e9edab7296ea5d02d841ae733ba2a8a89f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506441333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdfeb85c9ead70f3bd0745bb8fec317a21fda07780453d239a255afaa72a190b0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561633302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef7924196f13374e10ac52ce8cd50bb0693379f4bdb84a266ff267c2e879c33d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050490395},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0d4ee47d3abe6161f1e8f93bfe46d06d1ffd63f48e71c49aa81b2250e152e8b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.429582171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-04","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8b730810252255fa217a2828b46b7a3c0ed63b702c817461270ce9e65b5ec25","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5285686317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15488794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0558482044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0714963682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3537948757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5010654781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.065909847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.454097126},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2584717749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2223550186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"OlHuvYpfpmCSXcIwM7OL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5470026108},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"OpRRgcB6cymEfMe3a1sG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1099071182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058141745},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0994437697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2426781024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3142546313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4929758105},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"metaculus","id":"8393","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0946962494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x089a0dcb8e611a4c913f3f07221d02ab481e9eb61009cfdce1750491f20fb4a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688920518},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0bff0cefecebc11a15257b08d25133e6599b75df5dc2a5633bff7ed73f6a9eb3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.066901829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x18b1dc1565575cb2ff48bbc078070170ca3278691860cca7c97131fc657a9530","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568669785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2239eba5e038d08aa4ced697362abce36aad9602a412cd1288b8a1164d349c80","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624618021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x246be1739bccca6ecbaeac3d92755fd1ca5368bbb1f588e86d2b8f2ef0542948","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0861826157},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x251b46a4b02dd818bcaf26d5f84d3020d677428a66da715237c7bb764291b8bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0764845106},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532230658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2a6b222354f86941b5fb5571a9256b8db85d6ab468ba7f865e43cefbfb83b812","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909774127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x33c6c4906d923ac54100a3c760965ffb7ba9f49d9767597eb2358adaf89f9817","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824064298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3a07c5ebf7294febe753c18e89a29c74691e700dd61aa6d67081a6326538e887","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0599110517},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3c1aea7dfcae8dc154841d900f59c58c0c6ffcea1fd2942a680595ffd35a46ca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624239401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x403b8deb760c51691df6dcc9a6aa080846ecd280d49d3786865c2d9846180aaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481676348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4d162a40c3e3f458b0e0017485d7f9e6ead0cdd0573e38b26e0d5420525ccfa4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.503850662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4d594c1480eab1db09f6c04c089f92d0a45844bdfae32a6f3f8391f99a1ea081","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525733747},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ed6fda2009f12fd706a2283ae5288d739d9d314914d28b57badc3b2383e8791","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555218469},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x528f7bcfd3328a767e72e8d27ea7d345a861ec94c81004f347e571c08a3b00dd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503537175},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x53e409b11e90081ba2cb0834a391e1208dd4c87ac817e4c76a5125cd2b647a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.049548166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58234757c9519ddfffdbc8f33bea3b172d5a55a7fedb07c6df4fed1e97ba1ca7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8599957985},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c5d898595b3445dd3809896302889cd512411fa8306de609d9d8aa34e257ba8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0713383684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60c447987af838c9a074ad7d44751135be94a20580982b72d76e9b542572bfe6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630517941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x63bfc2579cb54eaad635aeccea2dab1093d316e905089969e1f149e6c26e7d74","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550775905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74a960f6e74324d124183f786467b089beebaaa34b075181c55e823b18bde048","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0782742862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x756f82fea9416b9a5437bca4ad5f2fd84597986ec5e83562f8cac0907dc694de","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517371486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7858c69bcee88426d6ee415e3b70e2f3f31c2ada1b3c68de7e37ce7b39014d3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500731088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7c6c69d91b21cbbea08a13d0ad51c0e96a956045aaadc77bce507c6b0475b66e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080481556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7f3c6b9029a1a4a932509c147a2cc0762e1116b7a4568cde472908b29dd4889d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477139035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x826e915d9919bea5881b73bcb5e571917e641492e838c7d4ee655de66d244c4c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575995685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90943e0279054a865ee966f348d90c28bd55338ff4d2e8013c86fad695380f31","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.06316698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9e2b02521ae3622a8d0b373035b7f15479f5e3990f97411c2c1846cf36f93a57","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.048230684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa32a00faf9ac4f49c0a2742341304513d6816bec08219bfc48f85d7a013c9ddf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581069616},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4b876bf8805e74965adfe3c3f9e951d4b9f5d152bc0f81e6896f46346dfc4a2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0688866144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaa2717e3d40735de7c52f16d5dbfe0e796e11691ad128ef90a81c81d0afa750b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593268449},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xad29cf2f3839f6090c3ba8a0b6753d3af77ecced5c24ab10348ecc64067c04a8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.486202153},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb42cf911da8aa39a9f634c190120f5c36f7301b69b15d20aa23382ac350b830d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0600426417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc2ae4fc90814b307933e5edab31351de8ca003cc9f6fd5805843936dafa07e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475135063},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc512e0c0fa2d19ad6fe8bd885b3089a80fa2bf8382c104321c7359e7014cf567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775192965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc91b876622103c6cceaed067f6e3ea4cdcfe3052ba4ef9fba094c9ef8e501f0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608789112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd2016eb15c8b61cb95fe512a0c91f43fc46793e9ac0a30595d08dcffe637fdd2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0550324536},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd474ef9b31935d47c24b3178346fd82182ffa1a222d8f29f24b84b1850698bcd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490551852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdb4b2f370c3d0e996fbb32213c87aa5402936e3d4882432b6738e2f5661b79a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722967253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc609df6c167499ecd2beffda05a1ddaeca7ed3269a805f7b9a4afd5e96cf2e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0672666365},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3065996057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xea545a6f18395f2e6a6edb3154e19ac51fd5b1296e56e4e77a7067e392a6943f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.167189772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed01e807e649339cb23739f6735fb9c2284560cbd7bd9ad210c786127fb5f66a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507394497},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-01-18","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfbb2046e013da7b66ecedf3a9de63ce446fd57c23ccc77cd019991f485522236","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0704415932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144601472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0568401515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654352949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3333987132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4313615899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588779313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3910517633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2541674259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1816311034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"0PE59gu09y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4998887809},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"92gdnLROgN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8144032568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"HvTJLPAMNrSMoSORu3tm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5690779261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"OpRRgcB6cymEfMe3a1sG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1041277742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"XOJ8Tfrg8s2iqPFwauO8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0650498316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674932499},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"dzuCO2pcpu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3256942959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459609155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"hughuOcEOl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1205523597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"pXI4QH7WTZSL83roOjkF","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3078662813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"su6n5h6AZS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3793978703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7209537204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"10614","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4976787656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0732395078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41370","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1381004131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41462","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5684130863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x06331f454adc15cc3c7b0c2eda3c688630b1d5f3ab4c2238a666e4a8babef9f3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510758651},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a441ec0b47718954c379432ecd9fc384f9ed77d4aa83da3bb5734201c741979","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0534224478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e2c5a317dfa33635671394f2def49273f6e84ab083fadcf2a77493f78c8d02c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514671539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x22e7b5e35423e76842dd3a5e1a21d13793811080d5e7b2896d0c001bd5e97d54","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711350711},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2701e5a5b751418c5c5bf0faaafdea60ac9fc893eb75fd88e902cd97458d375b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0692560522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2cde05f9ccf7986b8ff404d74dfdc7d026792f6ae18a8438c8af714b19269802","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2176281899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x30779a5b03cff9251d259bc0a94e49d12a18eb501170fff2420da55370ecf297","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0670810885},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f34e931e2457b68c4acce8c4f4d0f5e5a1a9d68afb44afb70af88478718dd76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0744281244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5ccfe1b69a582d2985db08a8481a0d74c314b1fce9b4711ae2efb2c6467fe6aa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0499644662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x61ce3773237a948584e422de72265f937034af418a8b703e3a860ea62e59ff36","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532642456},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x641f7bc48e2a81d1483fc40d05e9be1abc44d60a83b283142ab6a7d101e73232","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0609286767},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1163217758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x69d6b4d10ccd09a4f78bde4510cacdc9900db0e9b24d4cffcc1fe9f686f94253","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0539513886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a642e9f63da8d3c1fc1ea5f027c9b1433b99731dca58a27e01b36de965d1d67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0668127681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ab02effed0b2fb10889ea2495d3dd67024045b11c6736a491f3185cc276511b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531059101},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6ec3b68de0b4da93d1b670b71772c6ced34ad368113de107021fe70adad18847","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0852503421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x707ab64115b0ca83b65bc5137aaa947a11f56885ed82ffcedc3c5b70e1210151","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0576026229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x74a960f6e74324d124183f786467b089beebaaa34b075181c55e823b18bde048","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0662662271},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x796e791e7058571e460278814fc7a3183752285338f1400087b98bef3c447908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0561173521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d5d324974fd30f5b011c0c7e041e50d3cb8af7a5483eb5e69fae955bfe3cc8f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524943015},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x94cf8bf4e55498de75450a5a219182732e6cb9261861e13baa910ad1c2b642b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502958709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa0e9a3826b017bcab72b8cd53d6b83069b706c81d3202aa4870f0ef6b8d01371","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0503374554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaa1144ea191942775190a6d5021f1954191bfc168d2b243072afcd130f6ec716","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5737469107},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb1e4027b58c6321ede3fd8e3737b2b440ccb51fc569854795f67dd407b3569d0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085292826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb215decbedd846168842f6e207f09bd5f50ce51d2191f238887d976ec21b6f66","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569826142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb6988ab627c10bcdfb56471699151aa19aa7d4816e286b5d9e362f99225196c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3250145055},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6b173db2582f7ccb12b7e541ab510934013b2640006712ae35507ff75d707f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0567492109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc91b876622103c6cceaed067f6e3ea4cdcfe3052ba4ef9fba094c9ef8e501f0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069480522},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde7d04363a3ccbb4a2bd27b052cb045997d87e0cf2f2f565fe18021b94860061","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553793418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe56b65d978c8bd65b4d24a0d093929ab23711816d039d7a3ceac5b7280b61564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0710022932},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe6120576744ed4a770a37a962e5e1f13eca78070b05575c9dc118cc64cf000ba","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0487238989},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2591ada43eda11c5923f0190307d2cc5f5d994695a654779c3dd328ff820d55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.145207179},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf772cab339a0049446f8e0183865a1c68ae7df3512d73c48bc3d1c2d5061f77b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0608326679},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1151515865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602195519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661318009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2315218721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4616438775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606945152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3701297775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1993352067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.211478296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.264738677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1722","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734939584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1412278695},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3077756111},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"infer","id":"1726","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0824681685},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"0IUCA5s8EN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9061946022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"OlHuvYpfpmCSXcIwM7OL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5335087533},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"OpRRgcB6cymEfMe3a1sG","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0987088236},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0634508983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"dI5U6ps6IP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6786351923},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0615876769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1073635968},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0794224362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"su6n5h6AZS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5852841775},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"tIylsIZu95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.686775833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510094121},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"metaculus","id":"38917","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540383564},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0939520839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41861","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565463703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x03ea417a6e1705498427bbe8fd89b922664db3020f196595d5c2a88826c7434c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0526972576},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x098e2be3df8ab529940c567819f8ef007cf007820e9d627642a5bbfaa42af372","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497178762},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15ba9c42b7b541d4acfcf44ac0c9d1e7740f4e3d320868b2eb2543596a2d2154","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2479697505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a441ec0b47718954c379432ecd9fc384f9ed77d4aa83da3bb5734201c741979","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0684083846},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e2c5a317dfa33635671394f2def49273f6e84ab083fadcf2a77493f78c8d02c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514169414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x22940303dcf84c7f3a9b51389f6ebdc81c9bdb2e8c5dc1d86eeefd38f3040118","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0607417373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x384a78b847edbafb7f4542dcde7000f0042d08a43ad12f11879050fbbf06b0ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2896807563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ff31d74cdc64db8bac526592434f63f7d924a40d10c1476033f4e7c97c65dad","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497737355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x406a62740107092e26426b8bb42fceb0a698b79c7ec3bf6955ece180b0fda107","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0602134053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5d4cf7d6906e944867c78a56c426799808eeb070826e06b2cc3079f21d387006","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0553541259},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5e9392d31f3156e5855557ea36a72932a0cfc4a6855d69c34c4a174278434fc8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498788897},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x60ecb823bb667a51ccf9ffcb1cab2c48899cd16410687874887dab9df9f4e1bf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0840472756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x611ac8b703b5291cb8798560e6db1edf9c5eb3038b138d1885d4f708380d4b52","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500929169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6680cae9b37261f6c1ec3313f9ad175708bb9722e94285b5b0a5b50a9972d312","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0530646872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6995678ed5f481941cc4de37512cfe77b1b20e6fd9ba35e284360061d2687d8f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1456700089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x797d586ad45522306490b0cc9b2f21bdf957f3843476fae99f3bcc2cec83b74b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8035183474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89102f28df8a119d84259cfdd0f2f7f9a758cfdf749554e153c6bf154afbe717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0571663991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x909bcd8ae00d0cd47b561a40d655ae4b71f24df00e7d82b18874698046f61f0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774429912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa360ac9fbd12976ccad4ae8799598aaabeb1c28de6493e3c52a67cb592dbb7d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0635578413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xabe05aa3efb620cf283a9a7f967eaced0aee898b14f3b170347a3392d7401f03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506368044},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xacb0a0c474f7723d3d5431a023517990cbf47e7b655c6624f0e4f51d36981137","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669689993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb08e5d3c35323aaef8b46c7bb3466df0b51ee87e1c38faa2ccc5c1a00e88c9a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1127877169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb195d62d129815a3c222566f8bf8c927870311e49888c7a938e2ba0143092224","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518705513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbb6db11fa76323814a73cd76cdaa459f502078166bf5810e6de1b013af7334f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560844018},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbc2d59e8ea0378f0851c86e84d250e80a5698874db52c13798053841f291dc28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0510603173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbffad14552b38c75d0047811d758c848202b520e153d5f124b694c6cadfaf7da","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529388542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd185f10a7d0f07e733e02a6811fc2930fb7478166107669fe58bd7ba37aa9895","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1447866778},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe56b65d978c8bd65b4d24a0d093929ab23711816d039d7a3ceac5b7280b61564","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0580688412},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeaab9021b99acc38699821455c9332838c88f1609071f7f2e39da2f56e52d9e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.069195702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xed6e40eeab474a579cb894e3eeafb215b29dbba27c30c33e39e80f40649d3cff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498251698},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee97e9edec0727d16dcfe4040dca1c949d45e4010de05569fb5a4e7a9873a83d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1208523632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0d4ee47d3abe6161f1e8f93bfe46d06d1ffd63f48e71c49aa81b2250e152e8b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.459534494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-02-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf8ce0003ad658f06891e30bea1da4ad188884cdd933367099c8d121ea671bbd6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0779693604},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1159744053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0541461125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0575515234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3135063591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4747776057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0572400575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2998828519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2116481147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2002760429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2736481404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1722","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594682896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1311853113},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.240977934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"infer","id":"1726","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019749917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"2gZEQtlQyO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4794574222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"4kreogtql1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4256715169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"5qIUdqQIOl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3286728195},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2070481831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"8y9hsccOnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1797341813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"9zlInyCcq9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05962986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ADS8fVRT4vhTq4lm7V12","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8093769572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"AQOlO0nOsc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957345396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"Ehu8pd5PLP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5495588939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"L2qLAZEntz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.184953334},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"LpP5sE6dnE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0674513484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"NhqOACq9Pu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2302678466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"PCt0P5qsCZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0961072353},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"PlEyIhRSPc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0711130796},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601829284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0676993977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"Ul8h2UzIPt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7642268308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"Y1YDkx1SzzL93AFDpG6v","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570911337},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ZJ9LlySKX4dldqcpdQ4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5630711605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ZQvUHx5d2tphDz1tJSMM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.083410048},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"dLq1oGr6ndcwTPIUAV9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0666414088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1664562096},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.262609436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4398683493},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0669150842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"lLZAqRlld9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0581757405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"lsO2IQ5LlE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.051672336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"m7scZNu2LwMHTfnhW0IV","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2965627746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"q8dtCdNgsn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1986499914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"su6n5h6AZS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5654952083},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"t0LUU2E2ZE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1089802725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"tcnaai25qi","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1608452316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"ylgphSdccA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109946016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"manifold","id":"zUONycg925","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8210069322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2906775368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084108254},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21504995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.110427992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904447092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3094219339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2600942807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586114562},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40849","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0660281042},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40852","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5480657756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40862","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050022589},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40864","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031166468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40865","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5404380171},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40875","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1658223521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"40967","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4597437765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4692437525},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41140","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.337532974},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41205","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.059183677},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2749664654},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41316","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4321382906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41343","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763336893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.164411189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.196849996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1227890719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41508","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4124383404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41512","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5083547648},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071163842},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41595","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580000941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.097111359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41861","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2117388473},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1566612086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x02f0c60b4f9551c97fe67bc6f02df357de52ca969f0e9159e06a5aca69cd2bf6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523241943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04b1198c2a888f4d162cc5eea844b2f67a80e684d37d8e75bbcde2fc2d06755b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0488422377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a2f5de6fcdacae0f56cb60cd05765e0e9998b605f6cc9c8885ee2a87ad85175","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7610221822},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0a999ae98b3c9e593cbbd33e2f940df1b071ac0ab9ede42ed12eeb8f7eef461e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0850236256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d14f5dc9fb3250ec888b1ac8d9fe9a0ce06f9d3ea60fdf138e8690622fea84c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128640446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x101c26a9ff336abf4dffeb109dc40b92d9f55882dd471e57ee875794a6561bf3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524313191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6343822243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6147286073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14dbdb6274de6bcc65ce2b628c6636ff210fd452d095b0f14fdb1d376b31cecf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.052763471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1eedfdbff1c7a12b40b84ed8043b8acc8fd3400993f0d1445c5b1b172f244232","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0598973419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4670889802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x212cc6584803e23a777960c163f882466db4cb88cec4983b3b95a8b3e75815d2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224969868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0993903532},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3659029a2ffcd2df378dad1d1a3f2c3a1d3662174aaca0c063beb46596084443","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0813837909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x36e8ca24d2a13435f519f15580d42b45cdbe3bc425fb39a7c2733260357af0fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1862944671},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x38837354d63a13a8b8707988d10343c0b7c0bb4ed6b2208a1167cd134250fe2e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2090291319},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b74dc0c578dd2d5ac066b98d4a8849995240003c921b44558fe9f06400f1c55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1475278983},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x41f7b9b2054fbedf0e559eb4f3567682b5ce3ec4b17a61f4b6efa7071ffedb0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3702691103},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48d65cfb64a9351ff56ca2377041f9bf558ae4755991080694b254a64917345b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0509961977},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4b23c2e3ee806915cc1186641d292acbc6b26d7a7746ee93c910b8b0c87d4bca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4287409798},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x51c5e5e7fb2afce5f9fb3239bbd002542ab7ff567ec7656b052173bdffb3051a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0586252488},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58234757c9519ddfffdbc8f33bea3b172d5a55a7fedb07c6df4fed1e97ba1ca7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8789275511},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5bacc34a8e6a55ba0ec728af334b7685e8fda1e9304ec95f0249bb15ea3c941d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7440380029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x618280c029aeb0044177f58ccc15fa38be1a8db304189b935a26d5205256ee3b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5076783776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x61ce3773237a948584e422de72265f937034af418a8b703e3a860ea62e59ff36","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514985992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x662270576ae01d80a6eec9f8579c93987338f646010117e9c98fffe7c38b220c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8775597779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6987d084de71031819f82051ea62b29a354628c3e4a22076a2acc197c776080a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707833952},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x70909f0ba8256a89c301da58812ae47203df54957a07c7f8b10235e877ad63c2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9039388352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5198727913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7a3227795ce17d9cc5378a9b373d6defd4b25112206531e0c7768f6092002410","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1243690818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7d99e856ca49dcf748ff0072af624a65bafcb44a34b914b5a1466211674ae729","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.254391184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8533de32e4bcfc22d1c8fe8d79be73b319505c2bc19733f62d2d217695df463d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0748905818},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x898e9ff5045fcd05c26ea1e956d926c191d5aecae1bc184283c94e665f0f7be5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3553510401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d2f1d7b05bdc074c2cdba4e4b51be5673953f9b22b3c0fc8e3bf5cbed13c90f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1078984984},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d4e6f7486e32dbd406028a3cecd9883df353c81011124418db811ed9cd9d1d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0841005585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x99a0fdc1bb6308873bf87eb75a47e21c8340fe20fb6b033444c1d21392da10a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4891062023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0628456261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fbe1832139c5e67dbf93813aabb9ac67ab8dd3d7d32fe86957ff761a8fa1532","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2247054812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa1f08ec3bcc1434cb0b695bd5ee9f81268ef45fb73f752b3a1c1fb1d35750866","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2465998703},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaeea5f917fc5746387b5f9c0a4263dba035dbb3f0ac6ad72bf92183d21e26739","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4807284457},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f3732fc2464da2ed17f4270dc87ac59a2b4b1ed711d491f9584ca9a783c95c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593650099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb80648ac5065ea63ccd08aea88b6c2faf5f324fa0cb9c26abb8a29c5a53e0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6284766837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb9223ddfda277ecf96cea52aba3d6a47e3bb001bf0173fb3e2145566c28e0c24","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9172831209},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd20296a99221f2e4426779353376c6f9f877dff7a8bbdc2bd91d52f3030f113","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0506853235},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5e382cc0cda0a640c8687ed85e8182e006dfcc7ba3a6fa6c68d53e5782f5320","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505063656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2524114668},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcbeecb8b1c7937145991ebb0d4c402b908c37f0f09222d8962c1f6fdfe5a9870","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2768493634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce33ad5f0fbcc1a4861cc92b81814cd174020d16df3dc80d5c287d5f047e68fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1798003863},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd185f10a7d0f07e733e02a6811fc2930fb7478166107669fe58bd7ba37aa9895","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1722014471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd405c18b0df642e7f06aadf359183cb8208c1ff6b3a3bca3f8206dca2eb9532e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0730328781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd87ac5bb74a21061d4f223d2a83c0269607fcb6d4c74d5a3d3220209d089431a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0646552882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4e3ed7607fd945a06ab045076f808e9fe6488fed1d56b924b7eb6836fdf9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5647379696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-01","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf562feabe9922f78e99b488df4fcef6be8cbc831605388751538d178585007aa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5296804887},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1017468428},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0554013293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0566133929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3063462333},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3603588835},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584097705},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.312151158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.218422397},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2068692134},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3431840486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1722","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588633205},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1504775158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2282779638},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"0q0RRPtScc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3022979807},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"65zU6OlPId","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5060490188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1774940999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"8y9hsccOnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1061758387},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"9zlInyCcq9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0647570749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"AQOlO0nOsc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008303313},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"C96pyn9Z5Z","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0512125691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"IIgUPUpq6E","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.058330244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ILztIIlPyl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0500043779},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"L2qLAZEntz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1860382594},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"LpP5sE6dnE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1173470098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"NstCUAzyt2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0759832484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8938342354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"OAL8q0Azzl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7820665823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"P255hsOyEL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1423465258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gNdcP2lc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.282118423},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"QsQUZ22Z28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0623293156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1573996405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"SsikK1jWrDZwQxDLCAnU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0625140288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1149587097},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"Y1YDkx1SzzL93AFDpG6v","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0533759296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ZJ9LlySKX4dldqcpdQ4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5784884573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ccugdghNgy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0853790342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"cp9s0lqSCy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3041802829},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"cqcSp5ZC9h","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.050908416},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"dLq1oGr6ndcwTPIUAV9t","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.061206433},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0594657401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"f2i3zt28mm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008189109},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lLZAqRlld9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0536546417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lOIsUpOuLg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2031521487},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785630178},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lnIC5ggZh6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1535258884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"lsO2IQ5LlE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0508422492},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"m7scZNu2LwMHTfnhW0IV","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2840910899},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671184255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"q8dtCdNgsn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.171967557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"sIS2UNptC0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2212229665},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"t0LUU2E2ZE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0976328067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"t8dLUsqqNE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4728318774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"tcnaai25qi","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1104912009},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"tgT5NHOu7VA8sSAuAtJb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0801592772},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529259062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ylgphSdccA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026820929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"ypNI2z6IRI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2334301081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7635055982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2979955827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2923400414},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0681128299},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2485345965},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1116571644},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.101373857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839178405},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3031511252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2379957342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0546961971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40711","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0517629823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40849","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0630850649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40852","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5428227421},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40862","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0511128729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40865","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6267336413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"40967","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5195394676},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0921794358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4684618188},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3051788979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1383626797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1979902797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0661461682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41508","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4148452876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2699289869},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41561","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3266677325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41595","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1468015201},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0936849876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1653959176},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"42135","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6199281029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"42274","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3321288298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"metaculus","id":"42284","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3453704075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04b6c4174ccaf58a69722fa6f699584ae5d2f84d20ea81055cdff2e464e6aaf3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4307863723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0b8382c3f8bf1a2ba7d9d37846edb54eb266a326b73d2338dc86a5959bf22ee4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2603179139},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0c38dd9305e3205557885183f0730270779e7e426b0ec3e7743f23963b6d6e4a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.053222812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0d14f5dc9fb3250ec888b1ac8d9fe9a0ce06f9d3ea60fdf138e8690622fea84c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1419640323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6402391628},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.60129065},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14dbdb6274de6bcc65ce2b628c6636ff210fd452d095b0f14fdb1d376b31cecf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0514089277},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1e17e60a28b3f9ddb668c5fac7b225095a5734a3825cf013659166045e94322f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523825919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2049638936027998accd2d320af8a7838ed1f673a00d0a22a288d5f678015e03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2873358874},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4503576979},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x246559691ae64806ee51dcc5ca1d1216bf6e25d80127a3425b72ba559190e96f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0745678136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x257b18205f908aef01ef2d1d50e6fea7d29cf5486fe04031d8b101394476faed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1792187854},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x281565cae359040475640be8bc20f4efe15245fe0251805fd338fb1a3e45ffae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5923517837},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2821de9fbe90c422cb220dad69fe44dfdea8fdf8fb779e562b44be6db8c1daff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2515546444},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2df3bce3a7e1b85fd6e26dcc87cb54a61052388e0bf676cbfcd94258d4b93343","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860763401},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x337e5c84b83679d5557acafcf78b5c5d4d932b9fcd7dfba7966249d64f0f0a0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2839025627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3423f60496f083e12e770f9ae961b31637823cdfd2361cb578b2596651ba53b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1193071451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x34fcbccbeaf57becfe5b45c9e1713876e288eb2c8d0f32d57d0c078cea92b6e0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0719783896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x36e8ca24d2a13435f519f15580d42b45cdbe3bc425fb39a7c2733260357af0fa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1787472727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4290a4aa43a0707f0f1193c73667074f2ef5ce8ab5d6fcdd4ca645bfe1528f03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1548528886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x42ddf5ef540070c0c7a44011d7b66d252edb2162d68a72d9dd429d5b93c6736b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3959425575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x484727c382ab50cd8ded2f655a0259bdbac4117b04dd82bd90627190c5eb90cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1008494834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48d65cfb64a9351ff56ca2377041f9bf558ae4755991080694b254a64917345b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498953898},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48fbf70c1713e71a405052bc4641e26dbba435fa557672c4040763c901cbf606","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1142085468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4d0d43382de6021ce0e906774caf6fc73fbe24078c9a75c6d7ae07b04299f8d0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0518589404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e65282819c98c6aed529f357fbf5983b1ae9407a3c25bd50fe97b2906df68f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0659322243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e99f6a90d91428c77816ca5884607b744420904cff1df30d5633c6f5eae5108","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4996478512},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5bacc34a8e6a55ba0ec728af334b7685e8fda1e9304ec95f0249bb15ea3c941d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7297736033},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5cd80b8fd72f37c78260a4f8fa0d5bbaaad3adffcfc2c0705e05ee20b8672908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5510932212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x626d0441b078eefbe2c49047960e7a3b6b4512c235507a2528ccc0f95f2474a6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4002467133},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c56930693777443c84bc172003442d9e317476fdcf59c9b26a60034001d9c19","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3792578774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa908777d31b9b31f311560d879231b8853f7f728278acb3ccc82bf3a52b5d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1096543917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7858c69bcee88426d6ee415e3b70e2f3f31c2ada1b3c68de7e37ce7b39014d3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0524923833},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7906cde04153c8c31e52ad747596c56b0ea7ce224a07bc604ea65206fb53a2c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4150633426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4882687132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7f81f50d29b43799df512b52574cfe3ffbadfb62ddc71bacf89f4e0dc4c5ffed","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4385632832},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x84c7382fc6881416a2b07b0ebe9da32daba8be44a48623a0c3fe4b22f816431a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1340237746},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d2f1d7b05bdc074c2cdba4e4b51be5673953f9b22b3c0fc8e3bf5cbed13c90f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1119399554},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98737df66d3a7aceb83e22aca51672a56fda0f8d5677578d193fd6d4ce6bcaa2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0657639609},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x98aa2f28e0610fa97d787c6e9875e37160cec1f4219dbdf86a3111616e8b700d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529069794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9f297733ff47d610334d4195c109296df51ec3fac02af7abed55adacd4bddacc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1215585283},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa70a86d250db7b0eb5f19b7856d13acf2dbfc554b8792fe9e004b521e8f601f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0493743228},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa998022efc89d60331ac15e78103dafd765e65eaea433405638c4e293d2b0fa6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5183444151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb23587fc1e319cdf9aaa12c503f6b2149c820c3d64ded3c98b4ff6719cac78fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102254458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb2e1fde8d5b6d178509efb34b3850c69a7bc742c361ba6016054e50302f833c7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2093769315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb80648ac5065ea63ccd08aea88b6c2faf5f324fa0cb9c26abb8a29c5a53e0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6328947369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc5e382cc0cda0a640c8687ed85e8182e006dfcc7ba3a6fa6c68d53e5782f5320","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0520933704},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc829edf5ca6961e441c266546064b629c29a9313694689c0768db92810db62ff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.273626047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6402405516},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce33ad5f0fbcc1a4861cc92b81814cd174020d16df3dc80d5c287d5f047e68fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1510955231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdde06286a7b9464d344f410ab0b3d2ebc6469904e72c27fd982f65fdbf78768d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1586973234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe443dab97ad8b7f58558cc7a6a3932d156031e962a451e0461e9a4578d78fe84","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0523323142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe94749bbf616139120735f9720de5b1a94b61cb7da0feb633f97f113d61a167b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.518322804},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xead308d7628ff4bf7c89df1d52163de37501a627c7b7588cc523c07ef9b0f4bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0673634013},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xee07342762446b03520f52f84b7a9b354d6fdad1d65cc4f2f942c484a9983a06","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496873904},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf5815cfd8808989d87c165bdd666c9f9df5db28698d53d3f5d1f2b0147d191bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.062953343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf74795c449ba15be6b0541c73beaa51d01d840606c84331ad97375b55004ccba","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3044689552},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-15","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfb80c14c1497596d2b10533873c6ffca9dadf062807ffb104a9c86e04fae7d89","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264751825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1097160028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0459030312},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1680","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0448795417},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1681","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.361274962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4066028348},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462993507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2785099893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2271740459},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1932624813},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2861846981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1723","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1779584478},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2221846166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.471146788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997311825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"9RNqh5yzqR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082811658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"A8PRqgUEgS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8168323227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4771487222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4568147156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"LpP5sE6dnE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1581695878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8516395591},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"OlQq8h8qOh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3267560655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3855185635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"P255hsOyEL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0978282151},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Q86zpNZRsU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0390216909},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Q9gNdcP2lc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3108730972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"QsQUZ22Z28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1536669187},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"Ul8h2UzIPt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7222854848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ZJ9LlySKX4dldqcpdQ4G","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5909550547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ZQvUHx5d2tphDz1tJSMM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1020127472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ccugdghNgy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1009926859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"dUzApqSQdN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0479216859},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516090301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1707781077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"lOIsUpOuLg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2006839787},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"lqRAnA8qPO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0643693539},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"lyIZhZLguu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1026415841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"sIS2UNptC0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2087389926},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"t8dLUsqqNE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4144689523},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"ypNI2z6IRI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3069221131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6802168569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.321333929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2562430225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0788203022},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2918884756},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1107793918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2708066583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3458566553},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40599","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3057021115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474896216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40849","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0818021203},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40852","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5831430551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40865","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.73565664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"40967","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5289475572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0848248474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2346157506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1719112076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1400657543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2817066579},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0859157565},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1414066634},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1408657543},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42135","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6220430081},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42139","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2599384769},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42284","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4457066514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42430","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.08848962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42472","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4028021076},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5626293741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7837520927},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8798702707},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0737930297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42491","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3313339286},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42540","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0816471189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"metaculus","id":"42548","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1646884806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04b6c4174ccaf58a69722fa6f699584ae5d2f84d20ea81055cdff2e464e6aaf3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4024494827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x09ab024402ce8e8a2c36e1456640a2920a74b758fcdb4a7eb8c4c4a12e8c1476","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1175944484},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f461cb384aa6289cc3b216ac9916b12a0dd90eccb46b198158507df81944a0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5123293761},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1480b819d03d4b6388d70e848b0384adf38c38d955cb783cdbcf6d4a436dee14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6113759631},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x149e2cdbf5b3df3142452412c4c9f4e8f39379020ba1bc25c1811a3f43c8ad27","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0419544855},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x15ba9c42b7b541d4acfcf44ac0c9d1e7740f4e3d320868b2eb2543596a2d2154","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3455668826},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1d18ea76e6b90075064466ed428970fc6932c7fc3bf32e74855e622a982a694c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9343357799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3986248351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x313787d313815069851d81a35de415dcfd9e223ced2a0ab19fcf9ad367ff0a76","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8075025008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35d4c895922c49d59ea09eedf6bbf2e7dc52c363225e6ce5b6a6489e9ce10965","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5497092041},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3acb42d4a4da859a82ec3c78e6be641489985672ea7f28ae73da7c253af32fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3233930199},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x44878f202dd18a286de9235acec372e9e6e6ca2b28d269c4138fc2604c9b78a9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0971553128},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ccff8c606ad71080c7611d28f1593a528a8ca6c11c1fb63bfa24a7eb2ad30d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8523941354},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.128485073},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52a5ce595e0f0816e17e5f40dbd5967c88beb4b9f21000bfdd9a1ff26c281fdd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0774327568},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x58234757c9519ddfffdbc8f33bea3b172d5a55a7fedb07c6df4fed1e97ba1ca7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8163940573},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5cd80b8fd72f37c78260a4f8fa0d5bbaaad3adffcfc2c0705e05ee20b8672908","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5210273871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5ec80dc407457301f282a2b44341947afc700dfaa7923d14c8894e04bc63b03f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6221714172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6c56930693777443c84bc172003442d9e317476fdcf59c9b26a60034001d9c19","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2857716691},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e1fbd722b0aca8a4e05c7c2f4ff1428d4c97f2ee02056712463d00c1c705a55","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1858248434},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa908777d31b9b31f311560d879231b8853f7f728278acb3ccc82bf3a52b5d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0990226196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x773abaa5fe55e5cde51a261f444b7921652a4e059ead6b3be9fe56499c2d4609","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9581804949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x78f5630bafa15147941daa2fd2926b43febe6af1544cd9d8527b226914f3ca11","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043427224},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x78f97eed822885c3813ab7ba0ba41a5c1bb0ca0f0f622698bfc0460931aff51a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7496861849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79bc9eae1f5ce8f3f58648f45e7ff7cf182a8314e2d1a5b536520c5cc4b3e097","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484242693},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81b06cb917c9a2aabc67a7765bc3c640e88a699bbf451b29915049c0766cde04","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.849898681},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4969771494},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d4e6f7486e32dbd406028a3cecd9883df353c81011124418db811ed9cd9d1d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0521787642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8df5a4256840dee05851250c0490da7593597faff3a7f9a156ccbbda7fec76f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0532850759},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1841871276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x939bf902c7ba884c1310f19b6be20576f823952460f6367c9f10c08cd449ee60","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5323293753},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x97de9adea81f908cc2b372c23627d8121ecbe1c21336d4263465fd3d1262d378","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4116150164},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fe87b4bec41ca0b2e5f09b79e59f9aba6a88feab636db30b70fa103c1b54e5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0570771781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa3186ffc28c45f336920279d5085529d530690a1623997819f3a3db05119dbaa","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1580654014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa998022efc89d60331ac15e78103dafd765e65eaea433405638c4e293d2b0fa6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4277995612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1006957672},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbee2cd40473495f713c69b9dfbce9fc2837fa4011568222c83c83bb773e35053","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.793366865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbefea6668e49e328db4d5c792bc15cea309bbc06101dfd6ced1e0556ad3ea301","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0391069806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc4170a15840e61b89216fcdf6368f63486b51f037e5c0546d63ae75b14fa5c2a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4192623343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc451f03563e65567ee326fcaf2128915afa777cb31805c40ddae0a19cf1013f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6130395994},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc4c3dbcc37a957a817599b0bf9fb5bd6b62b19210b0f527fec57cb75c7ed150a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.71343505},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6ddb19f848ac363330d0a690cfe6818d4c51e837161a41d42675eda27767ed0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0491593034},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc942d7049a9487c1fe5481c41e7014855fb7df7e69af2d5a7ea18af2d4c2052c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583975757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcb139a61f2cc201078f5ed717781b7227b740645d07fec2a07d2d4bcd16ff8a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.686385051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6490486889},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcd215b8330a35098a1a3f6c46b6492347edb5e74c1e0a95ac4d3d54aece6c262","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7967395922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xce33ad5f0fbcc1a4861cc92b81814cd174020d16df3dc80d5c287d5f047e68fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1758137643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd08544f6162283dc8d0a82f16362aab837a8537379df9bbe604960eec9cd4618","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537021214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd2016eb15c8b61cb95fe512a0c91f43fc46793e9ac0a30595d08dcffe637fdd2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0995409396},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd72622d154dfe65b9c019d6afcfe75a55717e5c502db611f555b101aafbf6ec5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0587121325},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd73f60114a0e7169a55082daef1228cb27fa50c939eea22cb0589f6bac6ce5d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2078077971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0e60764a3827a8c93ed961c73cfb02b0b6bf6820b8c8cb94fa99af46de9094c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4422293788},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8230714093},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xead308d7628ff4bf7c89df1d52163de37501a627c7b7588cc523c07ef9b0f4bd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.070211223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-03-29","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf6890c707d1e327b006b9511bdba8c98ec4e4978646c6ffcf3ec8750c26a666a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072410632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904992768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0478577104},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4466953501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0444772255},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1924115029},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2156059802},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1956790193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.247103624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.198494156},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"0PE59gu09y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.420109234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"0q0RRPtScc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3040398466},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"5GYiswIEZ4dM2NGnxbOR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2094777659},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935025359},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.122070278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5030871973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4865525169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"IIgUPUpq6E","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0430865214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"NIhOcZOQZE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1726475551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"NLPzcQ2Cy9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3572742741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.866228957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"O6R80dnggu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2290840123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"OlQq8h8qOh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3891790117},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4606506329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"QsQUZ22Z28","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1588586701},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"SZtPUQqhp5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6280399426},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1671235229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"UdsLNSc2OE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3688677995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1118170472},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ccugdghNgy","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0654552675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.071482868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"dUzApqSQdN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0490720214},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"dgPNU5ICzP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446275561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"g2lE0I6Etq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0456917285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2112122471},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0838713586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"lUSdpt96lp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3793704595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508949664},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"lyIZhZLguu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0734538095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"n0SOsuUccS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0496986123},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1011232231},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"rHlcD6lAiCa10CCruEHE","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629864071},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2859781934},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417230586},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7003716265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"manifold","id":"zuNuyO65hP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7744226708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3130273556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2581125949},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"37307","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720834147},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3300751221},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1138208709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0689252445},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"39992","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.277189379},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"40417","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3365180349},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445059857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"40967","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5420674316},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.085973011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41140","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3735183549},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2289123424},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.181259597},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2789187273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41561","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3215607627},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.072587181},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1297495801},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1401020506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42135","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6534826808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42430","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.078130086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.828069905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42489","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8730321986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0726395624},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42491","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3462228808},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42542","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0404202361},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42616","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4586809962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6407682852},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"metaculus","id":"42729","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0855968173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00cf5f4a419743e3bbaea3d01537c895ecfd8edba5e539967fe662573de44f23","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2787770713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12e3cc1640a58ee52e0ce2237c95ffefb7f543d65c0061043f23c803b215f099","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0467132548},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1dce1f13c565d8c34807aedfd6f75b41e0908f34fabfd2b56c362f190202d4b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2533363632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2096cd3bedb878cbfb5d30308968616a1dfd80e17b278ca6bdc72f9dde4776a7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4378493993},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3acb42d4a4da859a82ec3c78e6be641489985672ea7f28ae73da7c253af32fa8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3081808851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b6e28dcff1d4cfed3e169baefd383fb2ac39698d695baaf9eeb73f0e83cd6f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0806758343},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x45ca0f412d4c8700ed1cb835a35ddbdda1ab02027dcd7366ed8e3ac83b603910","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2443600951},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0540786876},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1380556043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52847ca1413b76a5570b97c0c432e38dbe61b0140f9d45e912604591b08f6fca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0384299719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x54b36f27449bac18ab792efb1fce8e923d6dc190a311cb28aef0926583ae5760","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4420987575},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5c60f587c76b49b7b3236cdb7f2a8d796aa9566659da670407bc2181aa8499cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8445129043},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x634ac8f30b4aac7e4be6c968097e4c4708f047e6641d005d3a0948c45f0912d3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8368080758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x68beecc857017df8663fa36c0c86310dec7305aa88fe830c94651391314afc1c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1249173954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4738251748},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7906cde04153c8c31e52ad747596c56b0ea7ce224a07bc604ea65206fb53a2c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4492059142},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4747668496},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x807a5bd3d52942c2d8b58bf71a583d4aa03a637f3fd9ff7a7c4a1ad818003067","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8361652607},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9fe87b4bec41ca0b2e5f09b79e59f9aba6a88feab636db30b70fa103c1b54e5a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0480819281},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa5a13e1bc51f0a6f2763f6c2de0ffc20f2d76df2726ecbe1592a269b4d92d18d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3571241655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa66db20af4919780b9ee9ede1ad0c79050bbdcff217d9fb6f3d0c65ab7c5a210","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4404332193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa6ddb7146f48a12dbf73456d654211b01d7493829932c31b7fe85d82120d338f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3471145551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957879649},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb412664463bbfe21be44b1963291205ab332afd4f7f6e0d027aec1ba7a9e6793","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.043152355},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb564e5e20a0d3ab9b07d24ff25b19001d9d6b2d1d3121d4b9a2a0691713643cb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1152077877},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb9b15d243a2adc2c7c63cfe9f92de8a079a38a8035a1638b3151d19d53b3ed2a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0415226266},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbef7518445fa4a7c6460d9157e2d4a8097320914988d13a809c486eff50e5c06","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4345486446},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1109800f5de195bbbbaf81b783de4792b6a8a2fbe9b604c715a39c5ae2a2a47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1458163857},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc11a6a29ad4dbe16920928339cd9ad3bf3f9a2ab63e52ff5bfb8d177cdfb4d35","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0973873954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1c3ea2f7de17860533ca15f8f97458a88030dfa1a46c8be5396b5cb60aaa2ee","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3190428838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc2150d5d58c957816dcf137776a3ab002b038c582acfc36510f59547ddbb5f58","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0442916982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc6ddb19f848ac363330d0a690cfe6818d4c51e837161a41d42675eda27767ed0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0468869587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8e9ba9e25f5adcf7e159e62c24ca3bda9a5245a049acb94fdd534e67ed1969e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3023522633},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6784936114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcfeec50a34d9429bfdc60d180f391b828924b88bd40c5b2361a43b7375b7a533","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0407745725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xda7e08ef489f722996e957ade4139a4003c707e4b103472ac111672dfe34444e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2553804285},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xddbfffed3078bc556ff8fabc7ff92515c092b5f38db97e557b5f8ee8af8b2597","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8692383563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2746091662},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe2ab9e3d506238a9a1a1f7f3448f5483645ab7ba16e1499929428b96ca27fd64","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4758620971},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8058411413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3e8574f967e628750dff67c641944a84da281ced40ffe7c76e42649e89a6887","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9190450251},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xefb4d37ec67929c1bbffb16454c5bb8bf574ed367f52c54495a28f0717a1e005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0760312584},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeffa3fd586db59043682b5bb90e4162f90bbfeb488edc118702d985183de0700","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0537310655},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf2a4a7765e2f05824fce5cd598c6c4a636a5aadc12607c05527b340f161fd2f9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1936985141},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-12","source":"polymarket","id":"0xffdbbf2c3b9aa808abbcb35beb2b20a93572570aa5dd1bd1b630cade2f809f26","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0875456437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0952890282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449941086},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1698","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5183224737},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0416968381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1703","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2582404527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1840613162},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.21211571},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2956870168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"infer","id":"1725","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2172672323},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"0q0RRPtScc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3428068189},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3759582498},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"2ItEg96spt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4241120222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"5lCp68nI9Q","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4535956173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"6uQmk7jqqcG4gUvPkkTr","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2056313864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"CqptuuhR5c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.36799839},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4550174551},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"IIgUPUpq6E","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449138074},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"O6R80dnggu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2822396227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"OAL8q0Azzl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7874284614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"OU2hqNZPu0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8626943881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"OhuZtq6n6R","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2174448132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3848463723},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"QUlUpzqyNh","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3639307765},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"RcRy5POOpq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0389226896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1532380806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720129637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"U5lqZZCzc9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0397286806},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"XOJ8Tfrg8s2iqPFwauO8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0542062166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"ZQvUHx5d2tphDz1tJSMM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0819209757},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"g2lE0I6Etq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0380564008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"ghI9lZO0CP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420353629},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"hEZcA8l59I","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0449523035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"i0gxu4hz50xefKXiKCI8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1796758289},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4659504929},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0907655884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"lyIZhZLguu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0622545391},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"n0SOsuUccS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481820356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.175784506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"y2ZIUOq0ZC","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0414957454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.040219242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"yq9hpgsgsU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0723013913},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6018306918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3218425137},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3049160381},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3244320118},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1283091078},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0656927272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40417","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3523006959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452876004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40701","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1347091682},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"40730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6287401476},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0846560641},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41140","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3443006204},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1972676535},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41480","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1479040296},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41514","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.296621223},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0817770896},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"41869","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1264722483},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"42485","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8532475301},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"42490","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0753296603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6610525053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"metaculus","id":"43091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4335014625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x069fef06f8b32dee6a22fab6189249dc83582f22cb737a85225b114770d7da05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4073687026},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6751524279},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x12609f33bc603cb234db2af1d502d143587b697bdc479ddb9344401dbf987914","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1627844332},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1462c484c487defffb893db05f136710d51e3879b838fd77d4ad85fa7137d6df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423004011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1500422077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7283108244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2baed9d4160afbaf16209d5e2d309393904cd4815b1db17c27630bb34637cd13","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0368233626},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bf6f2697e123f9bfb2c8788ed35741c67159ed19374886e6e7cb3f35e60f855","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0477192023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35d8c42a467d4e485ffba50c5d2d984ed0793f4935319ca923b494798051c8ef","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.884221612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x394399d0391adb7f8acd4829f335eb95b350b416bfca915e17b958c7204028e4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0722309468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x48874462b88af831a4d90479286c6c1d4cd683a6b119d926f85ac66549385b21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0507925865},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4232066284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x57c1e8de9d359a76055fe1be95e46a1e72d0537811dcc2ccf070cdfa73d8ba33","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4984349702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6bdcc928ea45c82db3fec2bcac7d7a3fee998686788086195925d0edc291bfd3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6730554212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6cb3ec9e0fb1c258898f648f8b33422f59ba3e8a71aee551449d7cb147bb8ead","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0592729298},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6d6fd5d251ce4cf80ec381a0fb7fcccefff4859ba7be92eddb1f7e6b1ef48595","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4067304729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6e11cccf8834acee6d4c03a019141ba6f91aa001cb8f96dd69e7f67e2be6739f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0531623458},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x727ef88fa8c351bc39256088cd6169b4c38a1fa41c7f7382d60880de09f2f829","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476846098},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x742fec2bf8157b780b2cf6b188076b9bd830122e665c216bc0f1e2d77e21cd23","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2793524284},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7603555ca158dfb3ec4ef84a0d9d247b5229def167093a9e844e1ae383c5d83a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6933157572},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5084771702},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x78547b8ae17c8a584116cc36c30ebbdab2591de259d35868958d806f4c3c211d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0371948398},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7906cde04153c8c31e52ad747596c56b0ea7ce224a07bc604ea65206fb53a2c5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4674175721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7db131f56117dd3883cb0f6ce289af6176a0f322f943cb4f226122a46619544b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3993354689},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8c51f57113fa7c705af2a3b2450a42cf0d0192a49b16db4235fb7d08738a9b07","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0367747916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e22889f3cf294f483a518d61ea2aad40ee79f8be39e7a2da1858daa7b4c8e68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528514612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x91b6939a95e9626fe3598483d37f2ad80fccac3d8a7a2ac8c9a4d9a4007661df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1629791719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x930c1ae0fdb23f71821c92e5dea1e6bd2b30b4d28ff5112a659c9f8b3871a1a5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.114688045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x939bf902c7ba884c1310f19b6be20576f823952460f6367c9f10c08cd449ee60","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4693502351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x947dd80143339be3a01453de9c1e40bae72688c56622796521805823eb35cb03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0446412127},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0x977b7d56cdeaead422cc48017dade80ec07a60036b19f1c5ab57ad48f52768e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2236083758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa0965c6e18be3e0893f9a3f69cd77e8d998e817dfab4ad7c5388b5f718d1efeb","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9038630079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa70fc3695a65833b91b45df6db6015096f3e1471b70352ca411b4209010e7633","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7723270294},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6d6873e4e1e640f48b9c386f612857a2635e734c03cceecd0bb2c061ed15e6d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6854564725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbd0c2d5f58650e031aba69b54529cf1e85f1f73622530b53b0d261063627c64d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4460168569},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbf9bb424df116aa45f95ac5df4a714ff59bba098ebdd457e3ffdf7fbcf075e31","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3219740939},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc0894d06e891709f3cd673f9ea8137ab51af268322265766f8bd6d647aa41cae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5201509647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc1109800f5de195bbbbaf81b783de4792b6a8a2fbe9b604c715a39c5ae2a2a47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785951088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc11a6a29ad4dbe16920928339cd9ad3bf3f9a2ab63e52ff5bfb8d177cdfb4d35","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0481820356},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc381b79b37b4d34ee7b7a54c0ab5f5d3c5a2a8cc67252d3010649aff1d377bd4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3232290531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcba24842ceac7a40d2a8b9adde1f4407999b6505193b9fd68156ae76fbffa706","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6648996995},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd73237bb27cdc455578e9a0788c358bd79609d394f43a270bde10cde4788105f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2155849317},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd84858f62672e3bde4cb7e5e59b3952673c75d0805d974c4c519700330b33dcf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0445367906},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdade564249db4b9daad8e06c21e06e2760c7c640b2be1c7016baa48bbfef83d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5898832019},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7900008805},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe31a6c763685129123cb6a0f729bfce04b768c5a22cb09c5610406df1a302465","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1523527558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-04-26","source":"polymarket","id":"0xefb4d37ec67929c1bbffb16454c5bb8bf574ed367f52c54495a28f0717a1e005","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0763520384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1027177509},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424354293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0398339577},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1781776528},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1674905011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579895159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3796830941},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"2ItEg96spt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2978781713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"A8PRqgUEgS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7782952794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1920018771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"EP58QE55q6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4161081878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ItRzuIdss9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.825525186},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"O6R80dnggu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2774021182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"OU2hqNZPu0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8809881004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"OhuZtq6n6R","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2266661706},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3946308054},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"R885yIqcqn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2576164021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3818090227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1517062052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"TeB8Z7GvhUdx2tB48bbO","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0505043972},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1238460066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"YEdvVluF5xAGBq6lrvfD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.418309278},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ZQvUHx5d2tphDz1tJSMM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0913222547},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ds2yC0gOSR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.281918242},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"g2lE0I6Etq","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0417548912},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"ghI9lZO0CP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420308225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"hEZcA8l59I","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639211075},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4172540563},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.134478719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"l6O2tdELtZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1197210732},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"n0SOsuUccS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0484697069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"nPUoIYsNtZKsF3qIzDlk","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2848586225},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"uQdQc8sICZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5897079621},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"yhCRLptzUL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0381780016},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6068611862},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3359457921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2054834617},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4488456453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1833987404},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0871273656},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"40695","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0918273595},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870023657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1785584967},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0720211352},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1324023067},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5921892089},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3508145227},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43167","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2270959336},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43171","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6085454376},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43257","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965023534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43259","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2441209115},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"metaculus","id":"43283","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3072645794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04f1a10e79a106d18dc45e6087f0757456197ec5c6ffec2506cd066e8215fc62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6915468922},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f3ae5d23882fb840762fd35de11fc31b0fbdc9e41e8666cdfae9d627f93f517","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7956280069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x114ba3133f9949f6a34f75caf515b6eb43eecf19a71958fdb0950f4bd94cf10e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7779952173},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x119db6dda44f109bcdc2ec5e1d9cb8c21fa1a7e66489f59b1190fdfb25c0d515","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421477366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x11a8cc3ed975d554331e153d3dd2b8fab52b3ecab40f9f1064683b32de4fad47","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6624703675},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x14dbdb6274de6bcc65ce2b628c6636ff210fd452d095b0f14fdb1d376b31cecf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475002302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1522a8bc6e0edaec715b93b1bb35558ff56906ede6bcbe55282267a8a167fa64","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0985626007},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x182390641d3b1b47cc64274b9da290efd04221c586651ba190880713da6347d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6464703883},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1a79328ec8dacec06ca77e364bb9da538e529744a601a94fbb7cf78825dbe9e6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5018971388},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1350038658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6979640714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x201305cdb4e6a8c4b4c48f1e24835fce62fbfc75efd608255e36c7d504fde6c8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0501774136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x221e0b7d9646f5a4262509e8c4c856299c422e21571018dcb3d5bd288d70afd0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484630258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x23e817f30871533d3bd7da01e68b802c5fccb8f44f053ef4ea5789c8a28563fe","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1082351506},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2cd24d17f5680dc6e7b7d67c712a223ae85550745597e81bd2d2b8d073443951","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0458318099},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x33ec07ceef529f87a3a070e06d5f9b6df9d3e4e6713faec26d9510786f7cd6be","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2753286834},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3b408ff1bc692be77ce9c3b1044ca4f6a0af3c1d2f245cb096c299005c4a0d48","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1191492771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f21513463b9883fbd5b2f0496397ff7c9f15d0b94751cdfbd0ca8f8c82a594e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0525966136},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3ff129c6f6737846a0b7912778da9c68f3766fbe4c8056224bd12de7e3ecfc10","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5685470521},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.28560992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4cf389adc069a4d713e1ddb6348c96afd6df78e6bf676c7dce1780135186d90e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1618663309},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x518a5b030b205706b8ffe6bbad9bd3de59548348e5c0471827f5de21e513333c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4482534585},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x582deddec9e371ede95b6884df883ccc477204aceff7ef1a1175f3091860aff3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7271405959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x619165fe3568255c0a048d9350b5011c19f17bcec0474e867a1a983e6411ceff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3965285258},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6a5695fb003f6ceb9075445d9a8d2b16c142c148de52cd8826c8dad60ff7483f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3789472986},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6fa13f31cceaf10ed3190df6e2aca0a93ab0d6fb46fd279003f17d4cdccee164","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3612395092},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7441be9aee85e1c6d85961ca75a9439c0c377f721069e0a93db018cd0220fc14","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2975833419},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x780eda657742337ca48284a55e7f2103d35484f16e05c49271cf1ed4e8cac89c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2661849453},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x81ea1a7f83a58f5257dde4697bb38c84911bb636bcc9e5b23a9c11cb4ebb06d4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0402481297},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x85f3e001ffe2a24f985b939460d0cc22041d47107ed8c681f75abb6a5bd1d1d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0693892011},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x883ea143cf3c0b585bd48b6edf31c8925b52b24b15337c56ffaa5c74842299e5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3385411012},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88e08e1db2095d39e18ef77068b8dc8074069ccac3feac7fba88482f4f822935","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1131288943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6319595322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e22889f3cf294f483a518d61ea2aad40ee79f8be39e7a2da1858daa7b4c8e68","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.05728991},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa7cb4135c6d9c36da0e343874dd5b455de739c6d1b9f9f5583dd9320aacf5db2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0578112943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6d6873e4e1e640f48b9c386f612857a2635e734c03cceecd0bb2c061ed15e6d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6725828544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f26187d7459a50e69881a10ec6b08c4c0ec028ad026de8318378959aed6b50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2355537351},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2723474373},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbeaf469ddc59c3aea0d6c7690eb70b69e3077a9d059f79859130636993ca4f98","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7444468234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbef7518445fa4a7c6460d9157e2d4a8097320914988d13a809c486eff50e5c06","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4427835438},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc0894d06e891709f3cd673f9ea8137ab51af268322265766f8bd6d647aa41cae","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4581221957},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc451f03563e65567ee326fcaf2128915afa777cb31805c40ddae0a19cf1013f7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6383879613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xcfeec50a34d9429bfdc60d180f391b828924b88bd40c5b2361a43b7375b7a533","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403503014},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd655178f705e3b4274e3d96ae3fc11e91d11d15fe269d969fc511a6d5f7be081","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1204288848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc00146a77dbe0f17e69b4c5d71e9358b0e9eaae4908ab993e0fff0c566abb11","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1935022273},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2191178346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdeb647fdf84101019b915355e56168e6f629e2399763b2c32f86ce63476d8252","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6000157612},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6e9ed2eaf69707c7a1162a240ca025a02b0a5028dc286c9248769e0044bdf7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0826898713},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe3033b163d0e0e30cb3154049f28295dada348030e5c6cdfe58ed0d4e393c7e9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7933592598},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf4e3ed7607fd945a06ab045076f808e9fe6488fed1d56b924b7eb6836fdf9d1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6494566501},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-10","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf6f8b2b5c8715bac1ab686147075eddbaf900b6956c20d01b14a7fbfa80bee03","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1720220052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1410724728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0462732992},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1699","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0409843261},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1541364658},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1821454725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3574784646},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2641584881},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1135106293},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4778383024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"EgPqNEQq89","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0934408847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"Jc4rRAQpvCXE9tCEfa4n","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0408636647},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"NQlELUPp5L","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2185198028},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8686751249},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"OAL8q0Azzl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7284394878},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"OhuZtq6n6R","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1459043921},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"Oungh6yUUg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4611935622},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"PucZntcA92","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0428781792},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"R885yIqcqn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1997647768},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RPcqcIcASQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.125584131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RRyLNl9AOp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2288904728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4288147962},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"RdhCc6L2dl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.157687582},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2012766159},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1502553184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"YEdvVluF5xAGBq6lrvfD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.47926513},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ZQvUHx5d2tphDz1tJSMM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0904561229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0601151001},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ds2yC0gOSR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2597172276},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"i7MP3oGFn6nUnrHe9aG5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4747811613},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"lZ0tchC5N0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489772558},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2118378302},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"lqhq6OQQPp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965354697},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1029104475},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1255507841},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"pLOp6I9sCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9047968144},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"u8UuypuNzQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4165777069},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.082701831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2808917716},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"zASdLnIEzR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2328269905},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0423223056},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6739686288},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3024524605},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2611712642},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"37523","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3071274544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1299414973},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0528152851},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0792652507},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1740276275},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0697090131},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.148233911},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"42630","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6306332838},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43091","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3061514557},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43167","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2540525234},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43259","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2009525925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43283","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3304586741},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"metaculus","id":"43461","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975480394},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00406e85288b97f3d587f259f15c557f61bdaa235124d82fe956c65974949ee8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3579602008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00de24efbe083e61da20587be324b35e842b51f330c4f5c55942bf8681cd0857","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624465226},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0e4dccd37c5ff002a8896ab8a5003331f83be9f2dc1bbafc4856235cb0a5eedc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1030730322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0f3ae5d23882fb840762fd35de11fc31b0fbdc9e41e8666cdfae9d627f93f517","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7826118987},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1277ec079bd88b9fb7722274d9d1c4dd16e5b424401e1ff4d528ab5eafe3a084","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2141963252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1b1a75d6305f5edee255b3f368cca945bde401fea4b2a7e34f2fcca3b3e56cf0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1102917728},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x1c60f9adb1d786b6fe78d63fd9f82dbb293fa06241532fb5ba43f8d8411cde1e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6143848674},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2a70026364d7f55c182b29a6b20055abb2bb649810d789ea293a89113ca34b6c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463540959},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2bde6486e7067f48ee21344d8b5c1af458732536eb4d080932c88c3a7c2d2126","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6130661191},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2cfbd8aabc3519021dc16ab0c7e0f42b0fdac191e64bcc3c42c2319c4c0117f3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.646633263},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x33ec07ceef529f87a3a070e06d5f9b6df9d3e4e6713faec26d9510786f7cd6be","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3360877918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x375409bc5eeeff961e82b479caeccc20f33d15738e5bce1186d628aa3d9dfb1f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0497331172},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3fe18d2b6303ee3a7e406aab679dbc0b0f7504dc6b477a31c69c6ffb04e9e11c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3402414739},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x416e3cbe25a60b8210f4e67c056ea2b03f4d511e7b969826d69ef90b753ff214","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0434025004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46d52281bbeedf8c99ec45497fda69f9815160cf3c97c48a4f41ab4ecdd11d7e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6890207079},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4890e36c536eef20111bd617f6479b6b7384ad2ebf16e18a108d989dc0aa9f9e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3469227152},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4e7ab14e108ea5a9155cec536b435c098b72702639598f0c28349c8bac946d94","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0847902435},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x603b54737c0573fa3b0f9a808856f6147c0f122d0ddef59859287371312deb49","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0482297442},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b2696a265decb06d8b9cd4c2316f8d19e20b0faaebdfbf89008d79443e42898","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475543544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x6b59b736ef8ec2c0f88139eb426dfcdbe7a0549e3415884f28b07a9b66602544","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.408996072},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.546259956},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79859c9e6645873e1568344b0b8ee54cc9eb02b90701cc5ba19c9a547ff313ce","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0754652556},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x79afea6a94f0b3dffb5e0886fa1dbd740d688029f7aba351dc46911bcb1b1f95","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4555647614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x831c01fffcd137a9ebba18cfcf976d68cadf475a4e2eab22af1f822dc7386482","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1827416786},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8df5a4256840dee05851250c0490da7593597faff3a7f9a156ccbbda7fec76f8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0920542966},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90b3a63203c32bc263c308ed8aabd6114db4cd1c9817e8a9bc9245074dd00157","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7548706848},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9d68465261466ff75df821881efdb495983f40a02e64d6c310dc91b6c8a39597","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6437707667},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ff2629945e6172d14c3d29cf573345544a13eceabd5d857a4caee7b8ba5c37d","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1019183462},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa9978c0f6c5616ed400110c1dccac9260bdbfa09ebc96048ea8498daa9e7f39e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6127036196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xadb3dda930d411bdab3c579f50408b538e66e8b2af8edecdcbcecff7f66aa84b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0957917917},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xaf4c3ba4d1b1568d4309bba0874cb7eec1e5b40a648f4a26b12efa2e9b5ee8a4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0924333742},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21d7b32eb529ea455eddba3cf29bfa097112202cbdf5bf21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5584708776},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbaf252e7ac957d6636a6916da51892c9f42e59bfbf808bd4d8e16f194694d2b5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3209586864},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbeaf469ddc59c3aea0d6c7690eb70b69e3077a9d059f79859130636993ca4f98","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7428034504},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc3fdb556a123e6545f0ac61ce6ce04793ea18ba83d5305596fac858ff8b9aa63","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3865511168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc45a4c5c01082f8c727add1be91ab92d6c4fb782dddc6ec0e92b7b992fa62202","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8367908282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc587bda904f031a973ad3cb57128ca011bfab0f45e6cb3734ed2227c4d4be419","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3484477132},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd4cb184e5dc458f3b03e6da54c87f7272e478bffe30c2d8157c6df8e2eb8c985","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4470182882},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd7e6f6627e8b73a8fa3a29949f6dc81f683f5ce102ae6b03347b862d09617f0f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1066471057},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdade564249db4b9daad8e06c21e06e2760c7c640b2be1c7016baa48bbfef83d9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5887099008},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdc00146a77dbe0f17e69b4c5d71e9358b0e9eaae4908ab993e0fff0c566abb11","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1846213637},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdccabd4259261ebe59c22f50f7602df939a1feec98fc2a4314db536560120c5f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529466599},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde6e8331eaaf0b212f688a04f6c4ff5f895ab633a467cb3e9f3da48fce7c6801","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1083417754},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe0b6f4d40f33f456caba50434db5ea8c5ca93e84eb912054a80ca0c58ad70dd7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1636602035},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xebca06463a9dcfa46dce21d63313c31db6c58b9ab68c09cceb988378f9c2174f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6158145531},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef720745be0a15b63c392854dacae4227a9deafe11fdf6afe79bdf45754dd10a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0776105653},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-05-24","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf7b5491e70b477d451afe7d9c1fde4bf1a927e69ff289d294b96df164f6c10f0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.780584749},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1733892632},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0420832815},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1382122587},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1617934925},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4013810357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"0PE59gu09y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3698736875},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"1Ip8b57AMVIsxvD0VnjL","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.310051891},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"5GYiswIEZ4dM2NGnxbOR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2474966684},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"8TGMkSPjMMgWKl24ymom","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0395997413},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1724499256},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.486279708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"Jc4rRAQpvCXE9tCEfa4n","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.039104232},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"LppqdEh6NP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9015897366},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"NEPnZ9yOCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0385151758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"NQlELUPp5L","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3047300893},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.838813429},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"OAL8q0Azzl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7356856825},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"PucZntcA92","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0377489508},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0470604722},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"RZ5ZAsSL5P","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.03714437},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4056888253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"RdhCc6L2dl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1063800831},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1605072155},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"U5lqZZCzc9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0424985031},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"UIqUE80RhN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5667607696},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"UynZghygcA","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0909704252},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"XOJ8Tfrg8s2iqPFwauO8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0560975919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"Z9shOszgAS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9222410047},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"ZCdtlP2A8u","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1025730886},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"cSl98uE2dt","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7180708138},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0489699196},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"dLCR20Ic6c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0375288729},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"dUzApqSQdN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0464695158},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"gtEN0EUcRz","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8391786726},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1144756758},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"lUSdpt96lp","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3932901918},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2930202844},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0966750738},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1280690781},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"pLOp6I9sCg","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.953876322},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.079677785},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"ycUv8xISKE23IysW1W3C","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3258663025},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"zAyUSgCu2s","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0383805603},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"zOSd5nE56c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6561444708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"zqzQKmNZc2v2FtzmgU9W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5325745635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"manifold","id":"zuNuyO65hP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6953818871},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.259759329},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.294414797},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"38783","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0403599386},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1305040999},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474529763},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"40701","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1573206988},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"40730","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6266584023},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.07941534},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1808595282},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0583931709},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1461651714},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"43283","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4244700241},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"43355","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0476171981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"43461","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.073598688},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"43479","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6435861374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"metaculus","id":"43502","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.317159184},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00406e85288b97f3d587f259f15c557f61bdaa235124d82fe956c65974949ee8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3809923561},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00de24efbe083e61da20587be324b35e842b51f330c4f5c55942bf8681cd0857","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0606487207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04f1a10e79a106d18dc45e6087f0757456197ec5c6ffec2506cd066e8215fc62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.788430216},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0bde18e0a0220d1f97173850504a1ed4fa90ef2c6a7bc0932952790053ca0c0e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1829822451},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0dfc21fa42873f2180bbf61265b6c759a96e1b350ea153d46f7f1943bef78385","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0639129486},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x224488d5b8e4e454c6f7ed545bd56d3d5768b582eee6bbddf286ad5ccd8adadf","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0516329657},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x34a4d29cc8e7227543fd3bbe7b6b2313fac9cc3b2ae9bcace5f88bd17c990b67","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1656595666},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35fc6fb38021d969a3e0987a7eb51517acfc3b1a3faf3ebfd31afc3874a876d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0655056529},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x399b69600812f9997ee0dcac06c74c9351f230baa53765eacbc443a77bc520b9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.501925384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f0bc2757babb8bb9971c9f782fe81f9db734c12d84822f1120a90681c991ff8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1091944315},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x415cb64cfa04f2cde4ec39c5a81050cc9fb539b9b6972e72cce16b46e0e33a5b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0775370253},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x46f19d5bedd6d601d597d308d86814245974014d8a108395a7690d7a099cacdd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0588571836},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4890e36c536eef20111bd617f6479b6b7384ad2ebf16e18a108d989dc0aa9f9e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3228258364},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x51a7c8afb7a0e09b8b47643171d90f400de23a176c4ea06f6552d6e53213839c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7284253814},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x521d35b8e294b0e0560063a9ed113cef947281fc4d3fea796f1bfb517e68b795","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5053676114},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x52fa882beba7627c68eb13f5b917313a422fdfe3d3e75c3073d39f687b84a212","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0440947764},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x672d648903d96946882cd200c78253414f3bebf5143dab64add5fc0d23077f96","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569165635},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x71ee9c148f0e2b386ba959aca5954c5e6c428695bf1a5fca0af9194f40487758","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2250791943},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x77954e0830eafc9539916c591f717fb0635f6483bc9949524cb46483cd9b9d39","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6993096077},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7e5228c4aa228752fb75ec1ffcb315a5f2fef812d746ceb6601cee285366d1a8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.9593126872},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7e591fb31786d46761d906abbffbcec8eba519b649909bfb2d7833609a960782","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6987968868},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x88e08e1db2095d39e18ef77068b8dc8074069ccac3feac7fba88482f4f822935","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0870653207},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x89389a6b1439856a8d366234c795d72865c927a1aa3cf9d4cc04a3a400defde1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701198774},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x897a2f88e1b65776ac5af0440833eea638395f0af0df4bed47e83f64c9b9a1e3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3029092339},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8cf61b7b84b6ac2e0c619867dd6966e688b43e4fd4c866423da2f757c58f0a9f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4498491272},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8d6e53e9c96faed715f6fe20d7d1944f31bf203f980d8f3d94304c0a302381fc","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1765317614},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8db35a9d5d435b2fc5431354643361e5063375ca9df68df16f16918b8be84ae1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0390478308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8e508ebc36dcff88883ca4134648726032a04f83eac62cb7e9e90dcf9cd91ddd","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0529200736},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8f29ecb911257a128b7f7234ac9e8a8ac6390ff9f5329d4797c50c44c9ae97f4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0369969916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1614165218},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x91b6939a95e9626fe3598483d37f2ad80fccac3d8a7a2ac8c9a4d9a4007661df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2453732542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0x95631f2ff3207bc553eae1632c54eccdecdc38554e0b3f6894e73b7f22f83028","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474888095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa34f2fb5664f2cc079ba616597ab300bbbe6dd91e3d597f5bc45693c6ea20082","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4187992051},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4781f5d97b6fe28ca7a69353b89e3401a9483a4c7bfc2f493c6cca138bd9c82","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032222243},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb60c044bba6f7958768691345df1e102448a5b7ef16e4a08879bb10483fb4567","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4651657546},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb6f26187d7459a50e69881a10ec6b08c4c0ec028ad026de8318378959aed6b50","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2668093112},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xc8a898fa8ce2121e3bba1ee52120ed8ab4f8ea7ed5a6dcd9b138fe7b9e454c0b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7921810954},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd492cb60df4fb9f44ef36e840720c392f68ae7ba7cbbb671a27221c5a3ecdf08","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1254957931},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde04b189b3f19eaccda02529a3ea67abfc46bff5c0c8fc42d8a2d0ed7b8f0d41","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2610249369},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xdf6e9ed2eaf69707c7a1162a240ca025a02b0a5028dc286c9248769e0044bdf7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0797611725},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xeffa3fd586db59043682b5bb90e4162f90bbfeb488edc118702d985183de0700","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0535945719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xf0da2d17e6a966439fdb10c3623972da50825e6dbec55bf43ce651fbb8952bca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0552691371},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-07","source":"polymarket","id":"0xfbe834154a7b7d8ec4ccd0f5468b58a113bdbf0e7c0a41876ae8b014ab94631b","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6931360122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"infer","id":"1653","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1711307884},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"infer","id":"1654","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0421396503},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"infer","id":"1704","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1361121307},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"infer","id":"1707","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1842982062},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"infer","id":"1717","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.393201197},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"0PE59gu09y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3644990229},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"2sLApOCEll","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0809500344},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"5C022SpgR6","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0965393583},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"5GYiswIEZ4dM2NGnxbOR","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2463800045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"8TGMkSPjMMgWKl24ymom","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0376187744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"ECdCgusP8y","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0569082661},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"ENeRvHYBhq48Fol2AtB8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5365657119},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"HvTJLPAMNrSMoSORu3tm","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5272398166},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"Jc4rRAQpvCXE9tCEfa4n","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0383312454},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"O5N6AAz8QI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.800250888},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"OAL8q0Azzl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7134390021},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"PucZntcA92","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0401085721},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"QHFQmCmz8HplpN2QQnl2","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0474194514},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"RcNs5ch6qU","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3657257527},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"RdhCc6L2dl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.089613125},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"SnOyRhNQZu","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1894513963},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"XOJ8Tfrg8s2iqPFwauO8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0584584265},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"YEdvVluF5xAGBq6lrvfD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4488311052},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"ZCdtlP2A8u","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.098943378},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"ZQvUHx5d2tphDz1tJSMM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0815364024},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"ZzI5utQOzI","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0860836755},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"cnlR6p5sZl","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0452996914},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"dIntAyAcUZ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.080468982},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"dP58EZ5ntQ","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0701750368},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"dUzApqSQdN","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0427157996},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"hdNqANszg0","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0405140519},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"j65AKQZQCjgqa3erm88N","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1356683515},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"lgxNmHNmrYvowjnSyQAM","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2735204053},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"n8ZROwk6GKcLyurigsf1","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1032763908},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"nR9hLyUqzn","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1199065122},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"y8LztqQUPS","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3020692794},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"yTCCaTUbAtJWWFo1dGzD","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0885161771},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"zqzQKmNZc2v2FtzmgU9W","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4949096004},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"manifold","id":"zuNuyO65hP","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7082929362},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"24819","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3004203374},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"36871","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3084258727},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"38940","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1325763168},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"39142","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0502876358},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"40701","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.15111827},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"40967","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5253419916},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"41090","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0917653088},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"41206","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1565040342},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"41805","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0494820823},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"42088","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1277096625},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"43283","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5295142032},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"43343","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1519429346},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"43461","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0637209907},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"43502","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3743313174},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"43682","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1263874436},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"metaculus","id":"43688","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1744373222},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00406e85288b97f3d587f259f15c557f61bdaa235124d82fe956c65974949ee8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3748215384},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x00de24efbe083e61da20587be324b35e842b51f330c4f5c55942bf8681cd0857","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0642612116},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x04f1a10e79a106d18dc45e6087f0757456197ec5c6ffec2506cd066e8215fc62","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7970968608},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x0efcc493f7e7578cd5808b29e08c2535dee61c2a1fe841696e76e7892b29cca8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7886329377},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x174018cba2df7afe76f434e8ca93e55c76f2eb13015a5caf941ce6d270ba6264","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.271016245},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x22776ecdacca07302e6cc578cdcf26df93b4233d5a8166cbf131cb32fec425b9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7323095244},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x2cd4df599867b14e835436e67e524cd04bbd67eaa6454c07b294d9dd0470e6b7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0383096799},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x35fc6fb38021d969a3e0987a7eb51517acfc3b1a3faf3ebfd31afc3874a876d7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.109672208},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x399b69600812f9997ee0dcac06c74c9351f230baa53765eacbc443a77bc520b9","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5533877541},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x3f0bc2757babb8bb9971c9f782fe81f9db734c12d84822f1120a90681c991ff8","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.119972182},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4168c55800f52740c0ca9c326569455ecd66075071e2825f4f4938bed2fafff4","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1023481849},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4890e36c536eef20111bd617f6479b6b7384ad2ebf16e18a108d989dc0aa9f9e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.3427591193},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x4ae4a0aecfc6479374c5a9a355f0f0cba2c0680dff010b48a2c8b380423efd05","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2953495169},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x5bf2c54fb4ca9d63427816cd88ab8f7b5ede5b2b9166c366a940f1a0d6d0a290","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0624851744},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x619165fe3568255c0a048d9350b5011c19f17bcec0474e867a1a983e6411ceff","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4471536474},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x672d648903d96946882cd200c78253414f3bebf5143dab64add5fc0d23077f96","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0498840812},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x676e7cda423f5826bcbb3c141e808ad7c66bc2d055e4d0aca79c26779712062c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.177551981},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x71ee9c148f0e2b386ba959aca5954c5e6c428695bf1a5fca0af9194f40487758","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2702942468},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x7351fc78d06ad1bf25ee4e4f07d6e404451ba7ea062a4ce968ccdea9145a1ec3","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0756000719},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x802b8daacb36b5ea95011670cd004bffe3df70bc9a774da929fbd99074411e91","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0555556919},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x898e9ff5045fcd05c26ea1e956d926c191d5aecae1bc184283c94e665f0f7be5","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.6105265542},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x8bf1c1536ecb1c08fe13c6b71e8ab1f58bf3461c4cb79f5f1679f869a06aef86","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2240496969},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x90c6511dcc9499c2c58786a2456df333a87c97a9cf548acc26f3e4e56fbc36e7","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1802911408},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x91b6939a95e9626fe3598483d37f2ad80fccac3d8a7a2ac8c9a4d9a4007661df","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2193872643},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9ad73ff7534b1051e2dad167a0b1617ae20f64f20770ae8bf89a59a7a7290669","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4224880847},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0x9b6fef249040fd17e9c107955b37ac2c3e923509b6b0ff01cc463a331ddeb894","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0593824045},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa34f2fb5664f2cc079ba616597ab300bbbe6dd91e3d597f5bc45693c6ea20082","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4083589537},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xa4d72632ac0ddadcac5247ffc586a193f1bc3bc839cf9ce993c2471e0d599cca","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.5714094308},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb8e6d129a06d0ccb21d7b32eb529ea455eddba3cf29bfa097112202cbdf5bf21","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.4381602673},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xb9caf777115e4f38eb4e2de7fab3e88052b92a78f161f91db232be31a93d1e3e","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0475088095},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xba8526e4bf87c26c043d7048d364508d066117c173a91f2c56a82128fdc9102c","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.8240204039},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xbeaf469ddc59c3aea0d6c7690eb70b69e3077a9d059f79859130636993ca4f98","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.7833705066},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd492cb60df4fb9f44ef36e840720c392f68ae7ba7cbbb671a27221c5a3ecdf08","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1000406212},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd73237bb27cdc455578e9a0788c358bd79609d394f43a270bde10cde4788105f","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.2057108544},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xd81e304a53cfdac107189a8ab1fe862416c4f6de3a009b3243d057eb89fa8491","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1823206357},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xde6e8331eaaf0b212f688a04f6c4ff5f895ab633a467cb3e9f3da48fce7c6801","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1155999708},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xe8c4faf45974a68fa5b72d7bb52012a249357454f17235f14e310dc4bb526a99","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.1182957418},{"forecast_due_date":"2026-06-21","source":"polymarket","id":"0xef720745be0a15b63c392854dacae4227a9deafe11fdf6afe79bdf45754dd10a","horizon":null,"leaderboard_type":"baseline","question_fixed_effect":0.0975953496}]